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jackster109
6th May 2008, 19:44
Hi

Some of my NH systems have taking a turn for the worst, thier combined SR is something like 7%.

After looking further into the systems I see some perform extremely bad in the summer months like May and June.

Would I'd be better off taking a break when they are shown historically to make a loss or should I continue regardless as this could affect the overall profit over the year?

Thanks

Win2Win
6th May 2008, 20:09
If they have bad periods for the same months every year, skip them, otherwise no.

If you are talking about a SR of 7% of say 100+ bets, something serious could be wrong.

jackster109
6th May 2008, 21:36
ok cheers

the serious problem is they are not winning :headbange but coming second or third. :splapme

They performed brilliant in March but last month and a few days into this month they've started to underperform. So far from May I'm 0 out of 7.

I'll take a closer look to see if they always perform this bad at this time of year from the available years data Im using.

Thanks

Win2Win
6th May 2008, 22:10
the serious problem is they are not winning :headbange but coming second or third.....

.....So far from May I'm 0 out of 7.

Blimey, if you can't handle that little blip God help you :yikes: :D

Placed horses means it is selecting the correct horses, so the stats will correct.

For the first 2 months of this year, odds-on horses ran at about 50% SR :ooo

Street cry
7th May 2008, 11:49
i have a portfolio of systems which have faced stagnant periods of 1400 bets and massive losing runs you have to look at these things over literally 100's of bets ona 100 point bank with 37% strike rate and 10% poi you cab easily have a drawdown of 80% of the bank and still have avery workable system you must learn what period is within the realms of normality, take a 12 month view not a 12 day view