My system

[lydo33]

hi, before i start i'm a newbie to the betting game so if my system sounds stupid don't take the piss, as i'm just looking for a bit of help and advice as to what i am doing wrong and hopefully i'll learn from some of the more experienced guys out there.:thumbs

so here goes -

i have just started checking out how the tipsters in the newspapers have been doing over the past month or so. i've found that at every meeting they will get almost always get least one winner in every meeting. so i was thinking if i start with £50 and back one of the tipsters horses until i get a winner in a meeting the stopping when i do, i can gradually build up my stakes as need be. i'm trying to make 10%(i know its a bit high but its only an experiment to start with) at each meeting i could slowly but surely build up my balance.

i made up a spreadsheet to calculate how much i need to stake on each horse, with a starting balance and a target balance and
heres how its went so far -

meeting 1 Horse Odds Stake W/L Balance
Chester 09 May 13:45 : Dhaular Dhar 7/2 1.42 Lost 48.58
Chester 09 May 14:15 : Achill Island 2/1 3.41 Lost 45.17
Chester 09 May 14:45 : Macarthur 5/2 3.92 Won 54.97

meeting 2
Hamilton 09 May 18:05 : Going Time 9/4 2.45 Lost 52.52
Hamilton 09 May 18:35 : Van Bossed 6/4 4.55 Lost 47.97
Hamilton 09 May 19:10 : Legion D'Hon 8/1 1.92 Won 63.33

meeting 3
Ascot 10 May 13:10 : Lion Sands 5/2 2.66 Lost 60.67
Ascot 10 May 13:45 : Fragrancy 5/1 1.86 Lost 58.81
Ascot 10 May 14:20 : Zaahid 9/1 1.24 Won 69.97

thats the first 3 meetings cant be bothered typing in the rest but u get the picture. my balance is now at £145 and i was wondering what u thought, if u could give me any pointers i'd be gratefull.

ps i always go for the tipster that i think has the best tips at that meeting that day.

[Win2Win]

The tipsters in the papers are just that, tipsters, the vast majority are not professional gamblers. You will find out of the 100's of them, maybe 5 might finish in profit in a year, usually by luck.

At some pont you will hit a losing run of around 20. :ermmm

Stop-At-A-Winner, using this system WILL result in the bank going bust at some point. Most folk just use a stake of 3% of the betting bank, which is the safest method (apart from levels).

Well done on at least putting the effort in to research though, it's folk like you that can make it pay eventually. Hang around here, and you'll speed the process up. :thumbs

[lydo33]

At some pont you will hit a losing run of around 20. :ermmm

you're probably right here win2win as i've already had a losing run of 5 and ive only been doing it for a week. lol i hit the 6th one though at 4-1 and it got me back up to my target for that meeting, although i was panicking a bit watching it running! lol

do u think it would be a better idea to pick a meeting and go for the favourites using the stop-at-a-winner system? or should i continue with what i'm doing?

[lydo33]

heres more of the progress with my system. was falling asleep last nite while typing it in lol

i'll keep updating my progress until i eventually lose or end up a millionaire lol

meeting 4
Starting Balance = 70
Target Balance = 80

Lingfield 10 May 14:40 : Ice Queen 13/8 6.17 Lost 63.80
Lingfield 10 May 15:10 : Campanologist 15/8 8.63 Lost 55.17
Lingfield 10 May 15:45 : Verba 9/2 7.09 Lost 48.08
Lingfield 10 May 16:20 : Modernist 2/1 15.95 Lost 32.13
Lingfield 10 May 16:55 : Saranome 9/2 10.63 Lost 21.50
Lingfield 10 May 17:25 : Carlitos Spirit 6/1 9.75 Won 80.00

meeting 5
Starting Balance = 80
Target Balance = 90

Thirsk 10 May 18:10 : Alphabeth 4/1 3.33 Won 93.32

i then put a fiver on a football coupon here so minus £5

meeting 6
Starting Balance = 93.32
Target Balance = 100

Windsor 12 May 17:55 : River Rye 7/4 6.67 Won 99.99

meeting 7
Starting Balance = 100
Target Balance = 110

Towcester 12 May 18:05 : The Hairy Mutt 4/5 12.50 Lost 87.49
Towcester 12 May 18:35 : Red O'Donnell 5/2 9.00 Lost 78.49
Towcester 12 May 19:05 : Dennis T Leg 4/1 7.87 Lost 70.62
Towcester 12 May 19:35 : Leading Article 8/1 4.92 Lost 65.70
Towcester 12 May 20:05 : Carryduff 3/1 22.14 Won 132.12

notice on this meeting i put 22.14 on carryduff at 2/1 but when the returns came back they gave me 3/1 so i ain't complaining! lol

meeting 8
Starting Balance = 132.12
Target Balance = 145

Great Leighs 13 May 17:20 : Given A Choice 10/11 14.15 Lost 117.97
Great Leighs 13 May 17:50 : Maahe 11/4 9.82 Lost 108.15
Great Leighs 13 May 18:20 : Only If I Laugh 7/1 5.26 Lost 102.89
Great Leighs 13 May 18:50 : Boz 5/4 29.68 Lost 73.21
Great Leighs 13 May 19:20 : Rapscallion EVS 26.78 Lost 46.43
Great Leighs 13 May 19:50 : Stringsofmyheart 4/1 24.64 Won 144.99

meeting 9
Starting Balance = 145
Target Balance = 160

York 13:40 : King Charles 4/1 3.75 Lost 141.24
York 14:10 : Generous Thought 7/2 6.40 Lost 134.84
York 14:40 : Lush Lashes 9/4 11.00 Won 159.59

will update again 2morro.

[bigcumba]

do u think it would be a better idea to pick a meeting and go for the favourites using the stop-at-a-winner system?

Absolutely never ever follow favourites only at any meeting, especially chasing losses - that's a bigger no-no as it's the quickest way to ruin! A couple of years ago there was a run over 3 days of 50+ losing favourites. Even Richard Branson would have difficulty sustaining that sort of losing run, never mind the problem of getting a bookie to accept a billion dollar bet! As for stop at a winner? Why? What if your next system bet wins at 10/1 but you stopped because the previous one won? Horse racing is an ongoing thing - it's only us that choose to divide it up into days, but you shouldn't.

[Win2Win]

Absolutely never ever follow favourites only at any meeting


I've just banged up a profitable system doing that :doh ....Highly selective on Race Type though.....now all I have to do is write the software to give me a simple list....buggered if I'm doing more work than I have too.

As for the above post, it'll be a good lesson in what works & what does not :thumbs

Note: When typing in long posts, do it in Wordpad, just in case the forum blows up or something!!

[wb]

Be very careful with loss chaser systems of any kind. As Big C mentioned, a few years back 50+ favs lost on the trot. :yikes:

Many people then decide to try loss chasing on odds-on horses only, but this too is very dangerous.

I've just had a look at how many odds-on horses have lost in a row since 2004 (UK, all races):

1 Loser … 685
2 Losers … 333
3 Losers … 129
4 Losers … 48
5 Losers … 22
6 Losers … 14
7 Losers … 3
8 Losers … 1
9 Losers … 1

As you can see, five in a row was not uncommon, and six happened a few times too. Quickly work out how much you would be chasing on those, and you will see how dangerous it is.

I'm not trying to put a dampener on your system or anything, but just sharing some insights that I learned the hard way some years ago!

[lydo33]

i appreciate the help guys as i mentioned before i am only here to learn new things in the gambling world. thanks

[bigcumba]

i appreciate the help guys as i mentioned before i am only here to learn new things in the gambling world. thanks

Good thing about being on here is you can learn from our mistakes as well as your own!:)

[Win2Win]

Good thing about being on here is you can learn from our mistakes as well as your own!:)
...and more importantly, learn from the best......that'll be Vegy on WHAT NOT TO DO :laugh

[lydo33]

meeting 10
starting balance = 159.59
target balance = 175

Bath 14 May 18:00 : Ryan's Future 4/1 3.85 Lost 155.74
Bath 14 May 18:30 : Master Of Disg' 6/1 5.50 Lost 150.24
Bath 14 May 19:00 : Flying Indian 4/1 6.18 Won 174.96

meeting 11
starting balance = 174.96
target balance = 190

Perth 14 May 18:40 : Non runner
Perth 14 May 19:10 : General Ledger 7/2 4.29 Lost 170.67
Perth 14 May 19:40 : Willing Weasel 4/1 4.83 Lost 165.84
Perth 14 May 20:10 : Com. Express 4/1 6.03 Lost 159.81
Perth 14 May 20:40 : Yankee Holiday 7/2 8.62 Lost 151.19
Perth 14 May 21:10 : Deedeetee 5/1 7.76 Lost 143.43

as you''l notice i took a loss of around £40 here with no winners at this meeting! :mad: but not to worry will as its not too bad. i'll try again 2morro

meeting 12
starting balance = 143.43
target balance = 160

Salisbury 13:50 : Quotation 2/1 9.00 Lost 134.43
Salisbury 14:20 : Desire To Excel 7/4 15.50 Lost 118.93
Salisbury 14:50 : Uig 3/1 18.25 Lost 100.68
Salisbury 15:25 : Party In The Park 7/2 17.00 Won 154.23

2 horses where withdrawn at the last race so i lost 10p to the £1 so i'm left around £6 short of my target.

[counterfeit]

Be very careful with loss chaser systems of any kind. As Big C mentioned, a few years back 50+ favs lost on the trot. :yikes:

Many people then decide to try loss chasing on odds-on horses only, but this too is very dangerous.

I've just had a look at how many odds-on horses have lost in a row since 2004 (UK, all races):

1 Loser … 685
2 Losers … 333
3 Losers … 129
4 Losers … 48
5 Losers … 22
6 Losers … 14
7 Losers … 3
8 Losers … 1
9 Losers … 1

As you can see, five in a row was not uncommon, and six happened a few times too. Quickly work out how much you would be chasing on those, and you will see how dangerous it is.

I'm not trying to put a dampener on your system or anything, but just sharing some insights that I learned the hard way some years ago!

I would think that some of those longer runs were caused by some of the more ridiculous odds on horses, e.g. amateur races, handicap hurdles etc.

Sometimes I look at betting and can't believe the price of horses. Last night was a good example. McCoy was on Rawdon and it was backed into favourite but even a cursory glance at the form tells you that it was at best 3rd favourite to win - in the event it finished about 5th or 6th. I'm not that good at identifying "false favourites" but even I can see that some horses are ridiculously short prices.

[Tappets]

This is an interesting thread but am I missing something? You seem to be using real money. Tell me you are trying your system on paper first.

I would certainly try every new idea on paper before parting with money (and even then things have a habit of going pear-shaped when you do start for real).

If you have been betting for real count your losses as possibly the most valuable lesson you have ever learned (though expensive).

[bigcumba]

I doubt very much you'll get an answer here Tappets as the guy hasn't been back on the forum since his last post on the thread - May 15th

[Water Skater]

Thats a shame I was enjoying reading down this thread then it petered out
. . . was looking forward to perusing over the last 2 months profits.

anyone else got any decent staking plans for S.A.W.

Steve

[TheOldhamWhisper]

...anyone else got any decent staking plans for S.A.W.

To be honest, I don't think there can be a decent staking plan for Stop at a Winner because of the nature of the bet.

If you are using it as it is designed, it is a loss-chasing system which will inevitably break the bank sooner or later.

Trying to apply SAW to a system simply invalidates the system as you must back (or lay) every selection for the system to remain profitable over time.

[Street cry]

Listen to Keith / W2W You will not achieve any longevity with this approach stick to a sensible approach and a bit of compounding and before you know it you'll be making decent returns.

[Water Skater]

Thanks guys . . . I know you mean well but there are many SAW systems being tried and used with varying degrees of success at the moment, I agree that raw martingale or fib type loss makers are none productive but today there is more information and knowledge available to us.

[Street cry]

There is and Keiths System Banker is agood example in fact the only example i have seen that is reversed engineered properly to make use of long term strike rates and proven poi, but trust me 99.9% of loss recovery attempts are not worth purusing and if you calculate the compound growth of a 40% system with a small margin and decent turnover you will see that the gains are far larger anyway when staking % of bank

[Water Skater]

I am currently aware of one that returns +30% of bank each month but I am not totally confident myself ( but thats just my own fears of chasing loses ) the guy actualy makes a living doing it and has done for over a decade.

[Water Skater]

so I am digging around looking for different staking scenarios that I can apply to this type of betting or laying