Win2Win
15th June 2008, 19:49
I've spent 2 hours trying to come up with a statistical edge for this track but haven't really found one that is profitable. However it wasn't a complete waste of time as one thing did stand out.
It appears the F/c market is a lot more accurate than the actual live betting market, and by some margin:
RP F/c Fav: -4% ROI
SP Fav: -12% ROI
That is some margin, and covers 6 years.
The explanation is likely to be that the RP is done automatically the day before racing, and relies on the same variables every day of the year, whereas the market on track adjusts to outside influence, and the big meetings at Ascot take some serious money, which going by the stats, seriously disort the true market.
So if you are looking for an edge, stick with the RP F/c Fav's and ignore the live betting market altogether.
It appears the F/c market is a lot more accurate than the actual live betting market, and by some margin:
RP F/c Fav: -4% ROI
SP Fav: -12% ROI
That is some margin, and covers 6 years.
The explanation is likely to be that the RP is done automatically the day before racing, and relies on the same variables every day of the year, whereas the market on track adjusts to outside influence, and the big meetings at Ascot take some serious money, which going by the stats, seriously disort the true market.
So if you are looking for an edge, stick with the RP F/c Fav's and ignore the live betting market altogether.