Betting on the price of oil

[wb]

Does anyone know where I can bet on the price of oil and diesel?

I presume the spread firms do it. Are there others?

Thanks in advance.

[Win2Win]

It'll be going down soon. Saudi are bringing a new well online, and will be pumping a few extra 100'000's barrels a day by August.

[susanwells]

Almost hit $150 a barrel yesterday :yikes:

[Win2Win]

Almost hit $150 a barrel yesterday :yikes:
Yankee speculators who have no idea on the real oil reserves. The bubble will burst.

America's biggest investor in oil has sold all his shares, and taken about $2 Billion profit, as he's expecting it to pop soon.

[Onlyforfun]

Mere words cannot describe how annoyed I get when those who don't know any better blame faceless "speculators". How do you define a "speculator", and how do you know they are Yanks for a start?

The problem is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon of government making. When real interest rates (interest rate - inflation) are negative you get inflation as "speculators" ,i.e., people who are smart enough to spot a trend and take advantage of it, switch from cash and equities to tangibel assets. Until real interest rates rise, the price of commodities will continue to rise.

In fact, the oil price is most closely correlated to increase in M3 money supply, which at present is around 18% year on year in the US alone. 18% compounded can quickly push the price up.

Couple this with a finely balanced supply/demand of 85 million barrels / day on both sides and it breaks down as simply as Mr Micawber "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

As for your new well in S Arabia.... Well, 2 points, 100k barrels a day is neither here nor there when you consider output from Canterell in Mexico is declining at 27% a year (1 of only 4 fields producing more than 1 million barrels / day).

Etc.

[vegyjones]

There's nothing better than a wound up Scotman on the forum.

You stick it to 'em OFF! :D

[Win2Win]

[quote=Onlyforfun;472723]Mere words cannot describe how annoyed I get when those who don't know any better blame faceless "speculators". How do you define a "speculator", and how do you know they are Yanks for a start?
[quote]
Erm :doh I think the clue on Bloomberg was the fact they were speaking with American speculators playing the oil market!!

Not the complete story no, but there opinions.

I couldn't give a hoot, doing my funds the world of good :thumbs

[Onlyforfun]

Yeah, Bloomberg knows everything, right?

My problem is that there is no such thing as a "speculator", only investors, and like I say, if real interest rates are negative whats an investor going to do, buy bonds or keep cash and see a contant irreversible destruction of capital?

Take the old question I always ask economists who sy this time is different and FIAT money abolishes boom and bust, inflation is tamed etc etc etc.

"If I was going to transport you 100 years into the future and you could take 1 form of money would it be:

a) Treasurys
b) Equities
c) US Dollar notes
d) Gold
e) Oil?"

The answer by the way is d or e!



It is merely a convenient smokescreen for those in power (but not in control as the old saying goes) to hide behind.

[mathare]

"If I was going to transport you 100 years into the future and you could take 1 form of money would it be:

a) Treasurys
b) Equities
c) US Dollar notes
d) Gold
e) Oil?"

The answer by the way is d or e!Depends on the individual circumstances though doesn't it? In this case some, perhaps myself included, would take a lower profit margin for extra convenience. What use is having oil as your only monetary form when the local shops and services only accept zblotniks and the nearest oil-zblotnik exchange point is many miles away?

[Win2Win]

Yeah, Bloomberg knows everything, right?
No, as it's probably no better at forcasting winners that the presenters on ATR, CH4, BBC & RUK, I was just passing on some of the info, same as I pass on info about horses.

I make good money from the stock market, so I obviously know more than Bloomberg :laugh

Did you put C in for a joke? :D

[Onlyforfun]

Oil would be my second choice as it is likely that it will still be in use in 100 years. Maybe not, but only General Electric has survived as a member of the original Dow Jones Index in 112 years so equities are definately out.

US Dollar notes is a bit of a joke as 1 US dollar has lost around 97% of it's purchasing power over the last 100 years.

[Onlyforfun]

"Good" news is that it won't take much of a recession to drive demand back below supply so you may see it come back to around $100 ($105 via $95 is my prediction).