Crazybadgers Laying

[crazybadger]

Ive been paper trading a system for a little while now (around 130 selections) and I've got about 1-2 months before I could even think about using real money on it so I thought I would use this to keep track over the next few months. Im also hoping it keeps me interested and encourages me to keep tracking the details :D

Oh and my staking system is the basic 2% lay but with a twist of adding half of the profit from the last race. So lets see how it goes...

[crazybadger]

Todays selections:
4:10 Ascot - Dressed to Dance, 7.40
4:45 Ascot - Cape Hawk, 6.80
4:55 Newm - Cool Judgement, 3.80
6:50 Newb - Oldrik, 4.40
7:55 Newb - Star Acclaim, 7.20

[crazybadger]

Ive decided to do this a little differently. Ive been wanting to exclude races with < 9 runners as such I will be taking SP, only if its 10.0 or less and only if there are 9 or more runners in the race. I will also be factoring in a 5% commission. Based on that the results for yesterday are:

Dressed to Dance, SP 12.89 N/A - Odds too high
Cape Hawk, SP 5.82 N/A - < 9 Runners
Cool Judgement, SP 2.89 WON +19
Oldrik, SP 5.40 LOSS -131.47
Star Acclaim, SP 11.09 N/A - Odds too high

1/2, SR = 50%
Bankroll = 887.53

[crazybadger]

Todays Selections
4:50 Nott - Zain
8:15 Hamil - Rasaman

[crazybadger]

Zain N/A - not enough runners
Rasaman N/A - not enough runners

[Mavrick]

A bit of a rough start crazybadger but, it could have been much worse if Rasaman had been a selection. I hope you don't mind me throwing my 2 cents into the mix as I know it's only fun but, your staking is already far to high for the average prices of your selections without adding an additional half point. Also, even if the staking was where it should be it is probably a bad idea to vary your staking depending on what the previous selection did.

You probably need to clarify what you're are going to do incase of non-runners as when you start betting proper your bet will already have been matched unless you're going to use Betfair SP and even then unless you're at your computer during the day you won't be able to cancel the selection if non-runners bring the total selections to under nine.

I'm only saying this as from reading your first post it sounds like you're maybe intending to bet these for real in the future, which may mean the results your're getting in this thread may differ to what you'll get when you start using real money. Rasaman being a prime example.

Best of luck.

[crazybadger]

Haha thanks for the post mav. Rough start? I'll say! It WAS paper trading at 88% (albeit only after 130odd picks)

The reason I'm staking high (and with the 1/2 profit carrying over) was simply just to test something a little different that was aimed at growing the bank quickly. I figured this challenge would serve to test that while still recording my selections.

With the non-runner issue I know what you mean. Initially when I started recording all my selections I wasnt using SP and was just assuming I took every bet. It was still profitable but I noticed that a lot of the losses for me came when the runner numbers came below 9 so I thought I would try factoring that in as well for this thread. I am still recording my selections as I originally did but wanted to try somethign different for this challenge and to also see if i can squeeze another 1-2% out on the strike rate.

Oh and Im a computer programmer and Im writing bots that will do all the work for me. That is why I feel confident in saying I wouldnt get matched before a non-runner is established as I plan to have a bot placing the bet just before the off.

Thanks for the input mate. Always good to get feedback and ideas in case I had missed something :thumbs

[crazybadger]

Todays Selection
2:40 Perth - Harry Flashman

[Mavrick]

Oh and Im a computer programmer and Im writing bots that will do all the work for me.

All right for some:D

[crazybadger]

Harry Flashman N\A - 8 runners only

[crazybadger]

Todays Selections

2:10 Ayr - Invincible Lad
2:20 Newt - Briteside
2:50 Newt - Tagula Price
3:10 Ayr - Annibale Caro
4:20 Newt - Avant Gardiste
7:50 Wolv - New York Oscar
8:00 Wind - Hester Brook
8:20 Wolv - Squirtle
8:50 Wolv - Chjimes
9:20 Wolv - Ardent Price

[crazybadger]

Invincible Lad 3.21 LOSS -39.23
Briteside N\A - Odds too high
Tagula Price N\A - Odds too high
Annibale Caro 4.71 WIN +16.12
Avant Gardiste 4.20 WIN +24.03
New York Oscar 6.57 WIN +28.31
Hester Brook 4.33 WIN +30.88
Squirtle 4.41 LOSS -117.27
Chjimes 5.0 WIN +15.78
Ardent Price 3.55 WIN +23.57

So...
7/10 (70% SR)
Bankroll = 869.72 (-17.81 for the day)

I would expect to be here with these sort of results. The strike rate is way down and there havent been any big strings of wins yet. Lets hope for some improvement! :rolleyes:

[crazybadger]

Todays
3:30 Brigh - Yerevan
4:30 Brigh - Faith and Reason
8:20 Yarm - Beggars End

[crazybadger]

Yerevan 9.85 WIN +27.72
Faith and Reason 3.6 LOSS -82.71
Beggars End 9.6 WIN +15.48

9/13 (69% SR)
Bankroll = 830.21 (-39.51 for the day)

[crazybadger]

Todays

2:50 Ling - Amicable Terms
4:30 Catt - Manchestermaverick
4:40 Utt - Quil Est Beau
6:35 Worc - Any Reason
8:05 Worc - Disco Queen
8:35 Worc - Annie Fleetwood

[crazybadger]

Amicable Terms N\A - Odds too high
Manchestermaverick 4.6 WIN +23.12
Quil Est Beau 6.0 WIN +27.20
Any Reason N\A - non runner
Disco Queen N\A - Odds too high
Annie Fleetwood 5.85 LOSS -151.37

11/16 (68.75% SR)
Bankroll = 729.16 (-101.05 for the day)

[crazybadger]

Todays
5:10 Ham - Splash the Cash
5:30 Leic - Mandarin Spirit
6:50 Bath - Desperate Dan
7:25 Bath - Misaro
7:35 Donc - Zaaqya
8:30 Bath - Triggers Friend

[crazybadger]

Splash the Cash 5.7 LOSS -68.53
Mandarin Spirit 4.65 WIN +12.55
Desperate Dan 4.4 WIN +18.75
Misaro 5.9 LOSS -113.78
Zaaqya 5.1 LOSS -47.40
Triggers Friend 11.5 N\A Odds to high

13/21 (61.9%)
Bankroll = 530.75(-198.41 for the day)

[crazybadger]

Todays

2:30 Rip - Sirenuse
2:40 Mark - Kijivu
4:35 Rip - Rainbow Mirage
5:50 Ling - Rankayo Hitam
6:20 Ling - Media Stars
8:10 Hayd - Cleaver

[crazybadger]

Sirenuse 4.9 LOSS -41.42
Kijivu 5.5 WIN +9.30
Rainbow Mirage 3.66 WIN +13.89
Rankayo Hitam 2.5 LOSS -25.8
Media Stars 10.51 N\A - odds too high
Cleaver 5.24 WIN +9.24

16/26 (61.54%)
Bankroll = 495.96(-34.79 for the day)

Well this is not going too well. I am enjoying this and learning though. Obviously this is a bad run compared to my results I recorded previously. Or maybe this is normal and my other results were the anomaly. Either way this is showing the benefit for really testing systems before using money for them.

Also this very aggressive staking plan is obviously not working, and is losing lots in this "bad run". Like I said it was something to test while I recorded the system selections but its reinforcing the importance of good staking plans. :D

[crazybadger]

Todays

2:00 Newt - Tyrur Red
2:40 Strat - Sun Quest
2:50 Red - Brouhaha
4:20 Red - Prince Hamlet

[crazybadger]

Tyrur Red N\A - non runner
Sun Quest 4.26 WIN +13.81
Brouhaha N\A - non runner
Prince Hamlet 5.02 WIN +16.25

18/28 (64.29%)
Bankroll = 526.02(+30.06 for the day)

[crazybadger]

Todays
2:30 Ayr - Ubenkor
2:45 Yarm - Light Dubai
7:00 Bev - Ahlway
7:50 Wind - Lodi

[crazybadger]

Ubenkor N\A - not enough runners
Light Dubai N\A -non runner
Ahlway 5.6 WIN +18.65
Lodi 7.69 WIN +20.22

20/30 (66.67%)
Bankroll = 564.89 (+38.87 for the day)

[crazybadger]

Todays

4:55 Yarm - Isphahan
5:25 Yarm - Niteowl Lad

[crazybadger]

Isphahan 4.33 WIN +20.34
Niteowl Lad 7 WIN +20.78

22/32 (68.75%)
Bankroll = 606.01 (+41.12 for the day)

[crazybadger]

4:20 Catt - Messiah Garvey
4:30 Ling - Regal Royale
5:20 Catt - Dan Tucker
- Thorny Mandate
8:15 Sand -Make My Dream

I should probably only lay one from the 5:20 Catt but I havent really had to establish rules for this previously. So for now I will assume I lay both but will have to keep this in mind for the future

[crazybadger]

Messiah Garvey 5.0 WIN +21.38
Regal Royale 10.12 N\A - odds too high
Dan Tucker 3.8 LOSS -65.07
Thorny Mandate 4.25 WIN +10.69
Make My Dream 7.2 WIN +15.97

25/36 (69.44%)
Bankroll = 588.98 (-17.03 for the day)

[crazybadger]

Todays
7:15 Kemp - Honey Monster

Prob last one for some time while I move and go on holidays. :D