mathare's Lays

[mathare]

I have no idea how often I will post these or even how long I will continue to even have a crack at tipping horses I think will lose but let's have a go and see how we get on shall we?

Initially I'll be looking at horses towards the head of the markets so don't expect a super-huge SR but I hope to pick up a few losing favourites along the way. As I am paper-trading this myself for now I plan to produce stats for these using SP+10% rather than Betfair odds

Chester
2.30 Akenhaten W (9/4)
3.30 Look Busy L (6/4)
4.05 Veracity L (11/4)

Doncaster
1.35 Zacinto L (13/8)
2.35 African Rose W (7/2)
2.35 Equiano NR
2.35 US Ranger L (4/1)
2.35 Utmost Respect L (9/1)
3.10 Frozen Fire L (9/4)
3.10 Look Here L (11/4)
3.45 Major Cadeaux L (5/4)

Great Leighs
2.15 Mo Mhuirnin L (6/4)
2.45 Servoca L (10/11)

Goodwood
2.50 Anmar L (15/8)
3.20 Asset L (2/1)
4.30 Contretemps L (6/5)

Kempton
7.20 Red Icon L (5/2)

Curragh
2.05 Aspectoflove L (2/1)

[mathare]

It may just be beginners' luck but this has gone better than I imagined today. With Kempton still to run the stats are:

Runners: 16
Winners: 14
SR: 87.50%
Profit/Loss: +6.97pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[Win2Win]

Maybe I should have followed yours today...after Hogmaneigh won the first I've been swimming against the tide :(

[mathare]

Maybe I should have followed yours today...after Hogmaneigh won the first I've been swimming against the tide :(I know that feeling. I half thought about putting money on my lays today but as it's a brand new method of picking lays for me I didn't fancy diving in feet first and losing a bundle.

[Win2Win]

The first qualifier in every one of my 5 lay lists won!! ::hump

[mathare]

The only selection at Kempton got turned over too to give stats at the end of the day that look like:

Runners: 17
Winners: 15
SR: 88.24%
Profit/Loss: +7.92pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[Street cry]

good start Mat :thumbs

[Win2Win]

good start Mat :thumbs
Yep....I'd stop now while your ahead :laugh

[scoobydoo]

good start Mat :thumbs

Yeah well done Mat...& I backed them all! :yikes::thumbs

[mathare]

I had forgotten about these for today until just now.

Sunday 14th September
Goodwood
3.05 Lough Diver W (4/6)
3.40 Bankable L (8/13)

Stratford
2.45 Diablo L (11/8)
5.00 Rocky River L (15/8)

[Win2Win]

Only because you got me to delete the previous post with 12 winners in a row :ooo :yikes:

[mathare]

Only because you got me to delete the previous post with 12 winners in a row :ooo :yikes:Why would I need you to do that? I can do it myself :splapme

[mathare]

1 odds-on winner (4/6) today and three more losers :)

Runners: 21
Winners: 18
SR: 85.71%
Profit/Loss: +10.04pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[Win2Win]

Why would I need you to do that? I can do it myself :splapme
You fell into my cunning plan.....and admitted it!! :rolleyes:

[mathare]

Monday 15th September
Leicester
2.30 Hi Shinko L (3/1)
3.30 Nawamees W (2/1)
4.30 Factotum W (5/2)

Musselburgh
2.50 Identity L (5/2)
3.50 Incline L (5/1)

[mathare]

3 losers and two winners today at 2/1 and 5/2

Runners: 26
Winners: 21
SR: 80.77%
Profit/Loss: +7.94pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[eruptive plot]

matt,can you explain what you mean when you say "using sp+ 10%".
ive seen this on kieths win2win spredsheets but cant get my head around it

[mathare]

matt,can you explain what you mean when you say "using sp+ 10%".
ive seen this on kieths win2win spredsheets but cant get my head around itI assume a 10% overlay so when a lay loses (horse wins) I assume the Betfair price is equivalent to the starting price plus 10%. It's rare to be able to lay at SP on the exchanges - the average overlay is around 10% I have found so that is what I use

[Street cry]

well it simply means calculating in what you feel is an acceptable overlay on betfair so with a 10% + overlay you would for example be laying a 5/1 shot at 11/2 generally.

[eruptive plot]

so your not for arguement sake layaing at 1% of your bank + 10%

[mathare]

so your not for arguement sake layaing at 1% of your bank + 10%No.

If a horse loses I win 1pt (0.95pts after commission). The SP and thus the overlay is irrelevant in this case.

If a horse wins I lose the same number of points as SP+10%.

I'm not varying my stake based on the bank etc - at this point it is just 1pt fixed stake.

[eruptive plot]

ok cheers matt:thumbs

[mathare]

If you look back to Sunday's lays I had three losers (winning bets) and one winner (losing bet). The three losing horses netted me 0.95pts each after commission. The winner came in at 4/6 SP so I have assumed that on Betfair I would have laid it at SP+10% (1.73 in Betfair odds). That means my liability would have been 0.73pts (0.6667 * 1.1) so I made a profit of 0.95+0.95+0.95-0.73 = 2.12pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 16th September
Leicester
3.00 Dubai Hills W (3/1)

Lingfield
2.20 Lucayan Dancer L (13/2)
2.50 Party Frock L (5/4)
2.50 Gold Again L (8/1)
3.20 Dialogue W (1/1)
5.20 Spring of Fame W (5/6)

[mathare]

Got it rather wrong today I'm afraid. Three winners at 5/6, evens and 3/1 mean a loss today of 3.41pts

Runners: 32
Winners: 24
SR: 75%%
Profit/Loss: +4.53pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

I'd forgotten about these :yikes:

Kempton
2.40 Reel Ale L (5/1)
3.40 Damaniyat Girl W (8/11)

Windsor
3.00 Standpoint L (2/1)
3.30 All About You W (10/11)
5.00 Etosha L (11/8)

Wolverhampton
3.20 Nimmy's Special L (9/4)

[MattR]

I had forgotten about these for today until just now.




I'd forgotten about these :yikes:




Getting amnesia Mat? :D

[mathare]

Getting amnesia Mat? :D:laugh

No, just not used to posting system qualifiers on the forum, let alone profitable ones :D

[mathare]

4 winning bets and 2 losers, both odds-on, on Monday. A profit of 2pts on the day

Runners: 38
Winners: 28
SR: 73.68%
Profit/Loss: +6.53pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

Thursday 16th October

Brighton
3.30 Sparkling Montjeu W (13/2)

Great Leighs
8.50 Whentodream L (16/1)

I won't include this one in the stats as it started at too big a price and I wouldn't have layed it.

Nottingham
1.40 Big Bound L (4/5)
3.10 Covert Ambition W (15/8)

Ludlow
2.20 Marsh Court L (7/2)
2.20 Dabaratsa L (10/3)
2.50 Goldan Jess L (9/4)
2.50 Vincenzio L (13/2)
3.50 Misterinbetween L (7/2)
4.20 Karashar L (7/4)
4.50 King Ali L (15/8)

[mathare]

9 losing horses and 2 winners on Thursday. A slight loss of -0.66pts on the day, not as bad as I thought it may be when I got a 13/2 winner

Runners: 49
Winners: 37
SR: 75.51%
Profit/Loss: +5.87pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

Sunday 19th October

Southwell
1.40 Manchestermaverick L (1/1)

Fontwell
2.00 Briarhill Lad L (9/1)
3.00 Shoreacres NR
3.00 Postmaster W (4/6)
4.10 Easy Dancer L (5/1)
4.10 Baylock Boy L (10/1)
4.45 Runshan NR

Kempton
2.20 Saticon W (8/15)
2.50 Greenbridge L (7/4)
2.50 I'msingingtheblues W (15/8)
3.25 Woolcombe Folly W (8/11)
4.35 Katchit L (4/5)
5.35 Brinkmanship L (13/8)

[mathare]

Seven winning bets and four losers today with two non-runners. A profit of 2.47pts on the day mainly thanks to the short prices of the winners.

Runners: 60
Winners: 44
SR: 73.33%
Profit/Loss: +8.34pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

Monday 20th October

Windsor
3.00 Mutamared L (4/1)
4.30 Mister Ross W (5/1)

Plumpton
2.20 Apache Dawn L (8/1)
2.20 Carmond L (2/1)
2.50 Phone In W (4/1)
3.20 Knock Boy L (25/1) No Bet
4.50 Just Standeese L (15/2)
5.20 Oujamaflip L (5/2)

[mathare]

I've had better days with winners at 5/1 and 4/1 but such is life when you're laying. A loss of 5.15pts on the day

Runners: 67
Winners: 49
SR: 73.13%
Profit/Loss: +3.19pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

Tuesday 21st October

Yarmouth
2.20 Mezenah L (4/7)
2.50 Taazur L (10/3)
2.50 Wedding List L (11/4)
3.50 Mayaalah L (9/4)

Lingfield
2.30 Test Match L (6/5)
3.30 Five Star Junior L (3/1)

Exeter
2.10 Gullible Gordon L (1/3)
2.40 Shalone W (6/4)
3.10 Straw Bear L (2/1)
3.10 Pasco L (6/4)
3.40 The Tother One W (8/11)
4.40 Oracle Des Mottes W (4/1)
4.40 Pop Ahead L (9/1)

[mathare]

Three winners at up to 4/1 but a profit of 2.65pts on the day still.

Runners: 80
Winners: 59
SR: 73.75%
Profit/Loss: +5.84pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[paul183195]

good going mat :thumbs have you ever looked into layin odds on shots, i know the strike rate would"nt be fantastic but you would"nt be taking big hits off any paticular single race . the only big losses would be from losing runs and a losing run of say 8 or 9 may only be the equivalent of maybe a losing lay bet of 6 or 13/2 shot ( if that makes sense :doh )

[mathare]

Cheers Paul. The odds are only a small part of what I consider for these and it's hard to determine whether a horse will go off odds-on or not so while I see what you're saying it's not really practical.

The other alternative would be to lay all odds-on runners and several studies have shown that the man in the street is better of backing favourites than outsiders (for a number of reasons) and if favs are better to back than longshots that surely means they are worse to lay, certainly blindly

[Mavrick]

I have found it incredibly hard to make much money laying odds on shots.

[mathare]

Thursday 23rd October

Brighton
4.40 Braddock L (7/4)

Great Leighs
6.50 Key To Love L (13/2)

Carlisle
2.40 Astarador L (6/5)
3.15 Thai Vango L (4/1)
4.15 Tot O'Whiskey W (7/4)
4.50 Garleton L (12/1) No bet - odds too high

Ludlow
2.20 Balzaccio L (4/5)
2.55 Shining Gale W (5/2)
3.25 Three Lions L (4/1)
3.55 Australia Day L (2/1)
3.55 Track Mac L (9/2)
3.55 First Point W (4/1)
4.30 Lough Rynn W (15/8)
5.30 Charles Street W (4/5)
5.30 PotemkinL (9/2)

[mathare]

Great Leighs is still to run but not so good today. A loss of 4.42pts after a little run of winners, especially at Ludlow

1 unsettled
Runners: 93
Winners: 67
SR: 72.04%
Profit/Loss: +1.42pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

After Great Leighs:
Runners: 94
Winners: 68
SR: 72.34%
Profit/Loss: +2.37pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

Not been able to post these for a few days but let's try and get back on track...

Monday 27th October
Kempton
3.10 Ghanaati W (4/6)
4.10 MutamaredW (1/1)

Leicester
1.30 Gilt Edge Girl L (5/1)
3.00 Stand In Flames L (6/4)

Lingfield
2.20 It's A Mans World L (2/1)
3.50 Party Frock L (9/4)
4.20 Mister Ross W (1/2)

[mathare]

Not exactly back on track today with three winners out of seven selections. Luckily they were all short prices so I managed a profit of 1.42pts on the day

Runners: 101
Winners: 72
SR: 71.28%
Profit/Loss: +3.79pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

[mathare]

Saturday 1st November

Ayr
12.50 Inflammable L (11/8)

Newmarket
2.10 Burgundy Ice L (4/1)
2.45 Kirklees L (11/8)
3.55 Bankable L (11/8)

Ascot
1.35 Font L (5/2)
2.05 Air Force One L (9/4)
2.40 Mad Max NR
2.40 Leo's Lucky Star W (10/11)
3.15 Psychomodo W (8/1)
3.15 French Saulaie L (7/4)
3.50 Riverside Theatre W (11/10)

Wetherby
1.15 Glencree L (1/2)
1.50 Bow School L (2/1)
4.05 Warsaw Pact W (4/1)
4.05 Fresh Air And Fun L (9/2)

[mathare]

Midway through this afternoon I thought I had this cracked, I really did. Then Psychomodo came in at 8/1 to undo the hard work. Such is laying I guess. That was one of four winners on the day resulting in a loss of 5.91pts on the day.

Runners: 115
Winners: 82
SR: 71.30%
Profit/Loss: -2.12pts using SP+10% and exchange commission at 5%

That SR is disappointing and something I will be keeping my eye on. My selection method may be flawed, bringing in too many winners. I'll keep this going for another few weeks to see if we can recover from today's setback and if not I'll consign this method to the scrapheap too

[mathare]

Monday 3rd November

Plumpton
1.00 Thursday's Knight
2.30 Dillay Brook
2.30 Bynack Mhor
2.30 Sebber Bridge
3.00 Bathwick Man
4.00 Rhinestone Ruby

Warwick
1.10 Art Trend
1.10 Helium
1.40 No Telling
2.10 Phar Again
2.40 Afsoun
3.10 Officier De Reserve
3.40 Tradingup
4.10 Santia
4.10 Madame Mado
4.10 La Patrona

Wolverhampton
2.20 Smalljohn
5.20 Takeover Bid

Coo, what a busy day