KK v AA - bad call? (aka "carve up my play")

[crazybadger]

Reading some stuff posted on here has made me realise exactly how little I actually know about poker and how much I have to learn if I want to become a more regular and consistent player (and if I ever want to try to make any money from it).

So please carve up this hand how you see fit. I tried to play this tournament thinking through the actions of my opponents and putting them on something - not something I have done much before (as shown here)

Seat 1: riqqqq ($930 in chips)
Seat 2: Antraud ($1,340 in chips)
Seat 3: dent_ ($1,460 in chips)
Seat 4: Vrony83at ($1,160 in chips)
Seat 5: LukJ3 ($1,470 in chips)
Seat 6: _crazybadger ($1,840 in chips)
Seat 7: susipekka ($2,255 in chips)
Seat 8: floyd026_x ($1,350 in chips)
Seat 9: staalenberg ($1,430 in chips)
Seat 10: Bobalechicon ($1,765 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
floyd026_x posts small blind ($15), staalenberg posts big blind ($30).

_crazybadger dealt [ KC KS ]

PRE-FLOP
Bobalechicon folds, riqqqq folds, Antraud folds, dent_ bets $120, Vrony83at folds, LukJ3 folds, _crazybadger bets $250, susipekka calls $250, floyd026_x folds, staalenberg bets $350, dent_ folds, _crazybadger calls $130, susipekka calls $130.

FLOP [board cards: 3D QH 8D ]
staalenberg bets $1,050 and is all-in, _crazybadger calls $1,050, susipekka folds.
staalenberg shows [ AH AD ]
_crazybadger shows [ KC KS ]

TURN [board cards: 3D QH 8D 9D ]


RIVER [board cards: 3D QH 8D 9D AC ]


staalenberg wins $3,375.

[mathare]

Seat 1: riqqqq ($930 in chips)
Seat 2: Antraud ($1,340 in chips)
Seat 3: dent_ ($1,460 in chips)
Seat 4: Vrony83at ($1,160 in chips)
Seat 5: LukJ3 ($1,470 in chips)
Seat 6: _crazybadger ($1,840 in chips)
Seat 7: susipekka ($2,255 in chips)
Seat 8: floyd026_x ($1,350 in chips)
Seat 9: staalenberg ($1,430 in chips)
Seat 10: Bobalechicon ($1,765 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
floyd026_x posts small blind ($15), staalenberg posts big blind ($30).It's early in the tournament and you're still 10-handed then. You have a little over what you started the tourney with (I assume it was $1500 chips to start - I haven't added all the stacks up to check though)


_crazybadger dealt [ KC KS ]A welcome sight in late position (1 off the dealer)


PRE-FLOP
Bobalechicon folds, riqqqq folds, Antraud folds, dent_ bets $120, Vrony83at folds, LukJ3 folds, _crazybadger bets $250, susipekka calls $250, floyd026_x folds, staalenberg bets $350, dent_ folds, _crazybadger calls $130, susipekka calls $130.Now this is interesting. There's a mid-position raise to 4xBB (which is a decent raise) and you rightly re-raise. I'd have popped it a little higher than what is basically a min-raise though, probably $300-350. The BB then re-raises at which stage alarm bells have to be ringing. He's out of position and re-raising - why? By now you can put him on KK, AA or an overplayed AK and almost nothing else. QQ is an outside possibility with AQs even less likely. You call as does one other who cold-called your re-raise so has signalled he has a decent hand too, perhaps QQ, AK, KK or AA but the latter two are less likely than the former in my opinion.

Note that here it is tricky to put anyone on KK or AK knowing the cards you hold. There are only 4 of each rank in the deck (obviously) and if you have two of the Kings only one other player at most can have KK. There are still 4 Aces unaccounted for making it 6 times more likely a given player has AA than KK. At this stage you ought to be prepared for the fact that one of the two hands that will see this flop with you is AA, which is unfortunate as you haven't really done anything wrong up to this point.


FLOP [board cards: 3D QH 8D ]
staalenberg bets $1,050 and is all-in, _crazybadger calls $1,050, susipekka folds.The pot was certainly big enough that a standard bet would pot commit the BB so his bet isn't extravagent by any means. If he had AK he's on a massive bluff unless they were suited in diamonds, in which case he still needs to hit so it's a semi-bluff I guess. If he has QQ you're drawing slim but not dead. And not much changes if he has AA as you need to hit a K whether he has AA or QQ here. You call. Hmmm.

Here's where it gets tricky. If you have the time to analyse the play in slow-time as I have then there is a good chance you're going to be shown AA if you call. But you have an overpair to the flop and he might not have AA. You'd be hoping he had badly overplayed AK but you're no further behind QQ than AA. You called and I think I'd have done exactly the same even though in the back of my mind I could sense I would be shown AA. At times like this you have to call and pray I feel. If you could lay this down it's a VERY good (and brave) play. I'd have called and gone bust and learned from it.


staalenberg shows [ AH AD ]
_crazybadger shows [ KC KS ]And there it is, what we thought we would be shown.


TURN [board cards: 3D QH 8D 9D ]

RIVER [board cards: 3D QH 8D 9D AC ]The board brings no help and you're short-stacked after losing a big pot.

I think you played as well as you could have at the speed you need to play at online. I don't know what the buy-in for the event was but this is one to think about in the future and chalk up to experience. When you have KK and face someone cold-calling a reraise and the BB re-raising you out of position you have to fear the overpair but can you lay it down? At higher stakes one would hope that AK wouldn't be played that way but at lower stakes you never know. The better you know a player (and in many ways the better they play) the easier the laydown becomes but at no stage can I find anything horrible about your play here. You just caught the unlucky end of a good hand really.

[sportingprofit]

You have KK your going broke here everytime in a tournament when someone has AA for less than 100bb without an exremely strong read.

The mistake you made on the hand was just calling the 4-bet from staalenberg preflop, your not folding the hand on the flop if undercards come and you allow someone who has a single Ace to get there on the flop and or give you a tricky decision if an ace flops. Also as Mat says make your reraise a little bigger, you allow smaller pairs to outdraw you if you don't.

[mathare]

The mistake you made on the hand was just calling the 4-bet from staalenberg preflopI actually don't mind that call y'know. The most likely hand he has here is AA so I wouldn't want to put any more money in the pot than I have to as he's not going to fold AA whatever you bet.

As I said above when he puts in that raise from the BB knowing he will have to act first on every subsequent betting round he has a BIG hand. He's come over the top of a re-raiser and a cold-caller of that re-raise so he knows he faces two other decent hands. If he wanted to pick up the pot there and then he would have gone all in and stolen the money in the pre-flop pot but he quite clearly wants someone to play with him based on the size of his raise. It's enough to keep you interested but not enough to blow you away. If he wants to play the hand he's not scared of what the flop may bring.

So what does he have? He could have AA, KK, QQ or AK. I think we can safely rule out any other hand. Those hands are listed in order of likelihood I think he would play the hand that way, although QQ and AK are close. There are 4 Aces, 2 Kings and 4 Queens unaccounted for at this stage. There are 6 ways he could have a pair of Aces, 1 way he could have Kings, 6 ways he could Queens and 8 ways he can have AK (only two of which are suited). If we split the AK hands into AKs and AKo it's more likely he'd play AKs than AKo in this manner but there are only two ways he could have AKs so you may rank AKo and AKs similarly again in terms of likelihood. There are 6 ways he could have AA and the same for QQ while there is only one KK hand remaining so perhaps we need to modify our thinking slightly and put KK behind QQ in terms of likely hands. That then gives us an order of likely hands of: AA, QQ, KK, AKs/AKo with AA streets ahead as it's hard to get that attached to QQ and to play it in this way. You're almost definitely facing AA here in the BB so why raise and risk more chips than you have to.

Take that argument to the extreme and it says fold pre-flop but that's VERY hard to do in this situation. As for the cold-caller, goodness only knows what he was up to but I'd say for him we're looking at more like AK or JJ or something else he got badly out of line with. We can rule out QQ and AQ on the flop I reckon, and as there is only one KK left he could have it I guess but it's unlikely. I think he's on a badly played JJ or AKs but the wrong suit

[silax]

i take it this is stt and its early in the game. My game plan would be to get as many chips as possible in that pot with as few people as possible left i.e 1v1. with kk i don't want more then one person seeing the flop. now my style is different to most but i'm out of the game same as you in the end so does it matter i would have re-raised all in pre flop and hope i'm not up against AA. A- should fold which means the only hand i'm behind on could be AA. If you're up against another pair its lower then you and they have to hit 1 in 14 chance everything is in your favour untill the guy shows AA which hey how often is it gonna happen you have to take the hit. but doing the same next time is all you can do. If you play to slow and the A flops you can assume you're done for and will have to fold.
these are easy hands to play imo only one way to play them get an opponent 1 v 1 pre flop for as many chips as you can. Its at that time in the game where you could quite easilly get someone bluffing there way to the pot

[counterfeit]

Having looked at the play here several times, I almost certainly would have put the opponent on AA, QQ or AK Diamonds. As a result I would have had a very tricky decision. I can honestly say that as all of those three hands are the favourite over a pair of Kings on that flop I might have folded.

But, in all probability I would have called.

Basically, a nightmare hand.

[sportingprofit]

I actually don't mind that call y'know. The most likely hand he has here is AA so I wouldn't want to put any more money in the pot than I have to as he's not going to fold AA whatever you bet.

As I said above when he puts in that raise from the BB knowing he will have to act first on every subsequent betting round he has a BIG hand. He's come over the top of a re-raiser and a cold-caller of that re-raise so he knows he faces two other decent hands. If he wanted to pick up the pot there and then he would have gone all in and stolen the money in the pre-flop pot but he quite clearly wants someone to play with him based on the size of his raise. It's enough to keep you interested but not enough to blow you away. If he wants to play the hand he's not scared of what the flop may bring.

So what does he have? He could have AA, KK, QQ or AK. I think we can safely rule out any other hand. Those hands are listed in order of likelihood I think he would play the hand that way, although QQ and AK are close. There are 4 Aces, 2 Kings and 4 Queens unaccounted for at this stage. There are 6 ways he could have a pair of Aces, 1 way he could have Kings, 6 ways he could Queens and 8 ways he can have AK (only two of which are suited). If we split the AK hands into AKs and AKo it's more likely he'd play AKs than AKo in this manner but there are only two ways he could have AKs so you may rank AKo and AKs similarly again in terms of likelihood. There are 6 ways he could have AA and the same for QQ while there is only one KK hand remaining so perhaps we need to modify our thinking slightly and put KK behind QQ in terms of likely hands. That then gives us an order of likely hands of: AA, QQ, KK, AKs/AKo with AA streets ahead as it's hard to get that attached to QQ and to play it in this way. You're almost definitely facing AA here in the BB so why raise and risk more chips than you have to.

Take that argument to the extreme and it says fold pre-flop but that's VERY hard to do in this situation. As for the cold-caller, goodness only knows what he was up to but I'd say for him we're looking at more like AK or JJ or something else he got badly out of line with. We can rule out QQ and AQ on the flop I reckon, and as there is only one KK left he could have it I guess but it's unlikely. I think he's on a badly played JJ or AKs but the wrong suit

You seem to be assuming alot of information about this player without any read whatsoever on him. Many players here would do this with as bad a hand as Jacks (to find out where they are at) aswell as AK and maybe even AQ/TT which puts you well of ahead of his range.

Assuming his range is limited to QQ+, you have 50% equity against this range and with the dead money already in the pot even weighting his range more towards AA you still have good odds to get it all in as there is alot of dead money in the pot.

If you're so sure he has AA you should just fold preflop and not put anymore money in the pot putting yourself in a position where folding on the flop is near impossible getting 2/1.

[mathare]

You seem to be assuming alot of information about this player without any read whatsoever on him. Many players here would do this with as bad a hand as Jacks (to find out where they are at) aswell as AK and maybe even AQ/TT which puts you well of ahead of his range.True, but you have no choice but to make assumptions with the information given. As it's early in the tourney and this may be the firts time you've played this guy you have to assume things and human nature is to do so based on experience and personal play. That's why I put him on AK or a big pair and nothing smaller.


If you're so sure he has AA you should just fold preflop and not put anymore money in the pot putting yourself in a position where folding on the flop is near impossible getting 2/1.I said earlier that taking my argument to it's conclusion has you folding pre-flop but it's a very hard lay down to make in my book.

[sportingprofit]

I said earlier that taking my argument to it's conclusion has you folding pre-flop but it's a very hard lay down to make in my book.

It is a very hard laydown but you are only making the situation worse by calling as you are basically never folding any flop, so you should just put the money in now when you have the most equity.

[mathare]

It is a very hard laydown but you are only making the situation worse by calling as you are basically never folding any flop, so you should just put the money in now when you have the most equity.I think there are flops you'd fold on. If an A hits you'd think twice about calling the all-in bet for sure. That's about the only scare card that could come admittedly, unless the flop comes three of a kind but then you need to be SURE the other guy has AA if you're gonna fold.

[crazybadger]

When I went through the hand yesterday I know that I didnt really put that raiser on anything. When the flop (and subsequent raise) came I was only thinking "I dont think he has Queens" instead of still trying to put him on something...even then I dont know my reasoning. I think I just wanted my Kings to win which is very bad.

I thought my pre-flop re-raise might be a little small at the time. I wanted to be aggressive but get only 1 or 2 callers.

The cold-caller wasn't too much of an issue. I had made notes on him and he was pretty loose and played a lot of pots with crap hands. Most likely Ax. Still I dont think I really tried to think what he had either during the hand.

I really did try to put people on hands during the tourny but in this hand I forgot. Its almost like the Kings made me blind and I stopped trying to think everything through. Good to identify that weakness.

It is interesting to read everyone else's take and try to get my head more toward some good poker thinking

[John]

Very, very interesting and just really bad luck. Will add my thoughts tonight/tomorrow.

[mathare]

One thing you might find interesting is Poker Stove. It's a free download and it is basically an equity calculator showing where you stand against the range of hands you put your opponent on. I have seen it mentioned an increasing amount in magazines/books so downloaded it myself the other day but haven't had a chance to use it yet

[mathare]

Just downloaded PokerStove at work and if I have it right you had 48% equity pre-flop if the BB had QQ+ or AK assuming the cold-caller had a random hand (you said he was loose). The BB was 37% to win.

If we narrow down the loose cold-caller to pairs TT and above plus broadway Aces (A-T+) and KQ (which to my mind is loose to be cold-calling a re-raise) his equity rises to 19.2%, yours drops to 47.8% and the BB has 33% equity.

Deal out the flop and things change a little. Your equity drops to 35.6%, the BB has an equity of 48.8% and the other fella has 15.6%. You were getting around 2/1 your money so in equity terms it was probably right to call him if the range of hands I put him on is anything like (and I'm using Poker Stove right)

[crazybadger]

I got poker stove and it looks very interesting. Will be hard to manage to use that while playing a hand but I think it will be useful for me to analyse my play afterwards and try to improve my game.

Good stuff

[mathare]

Will be hard to manage to use that while playing a hand but I think it will be useful for me to analyse my play afterwards and try to improve my game.I think that's more the idea with it. You analyse hands after playing, or run a few hypothetical situations through it so you have a better idea of your equity with given hands against certain ranges (or random hands even)

[John]

I don't think you could have played the hand any better than you did, to be honest. The BB shoved on the flop – now if this was me playing the hand the first thing that would come to my mind here would be that he has AK. Nothing more, nothing less. Although this would depend on my read on the player thus far, but most of the time I'd put him on AK in a situation like this. A little part of me would say AQ, and a shove here with AQ would be very silly – but, with two other people in the pot - would also be an attempt (albeit a very bad one) to scare off the remaining people – very unlikely given the pre-flop raising.

Now one thing I have noticed, and again this does depend on your read of the player, but you shouldn't rule out the possibility of him having 88, making three of a kind on the flop. The reason I say this is that an awful lot of players set mine and even though pocket 8's isn't a very strong hand, there are a whole host of players out there that will call anything with a medium pocket pair simply to see the flop. Pocket 3's is out of the question here - I think.

Anyway, the flop comes 3D QH 8D and he puts all of his chips forward. You cold call, which is fine in my eyes and there's not a lot else you could do. The other guy folds and the shover flips over AA. You're praying to see a King but it's highly unlikely that you will given that you're already holding two of the four. As already mentioned, I think it would be a very difficult lay down to fold Kings on the flop, particularly as you/we/I have already put him on AK. Had an Ace appeared on the flop, I'd have folded Kings every time if I was in your position.

I don't think experiences like this are all that easy to learn from. I think online it can be very difficult to put a read on players in particularly strong situations - where people's hands are very strong. I guess improving on that does come with practice. You got very unlucky, you couldn't rule out the possibility of him having Aces and you hoped your Kings would see you through - and that's probably the same way I'd see it.