HT/FT Odds

[MattR]

This may be one for Mat.,

I'm not entirely sure but I believe these are based on match odds and I guess half time match odds.

I got to thinking that the 'vagueness' of that must leave it an area that could potentially be exploited.

The question is how would you go about working out theoretical odds for the various outcomes. I've used goals scored for home and away teams to a degree of success on the half time match odds markets before so that would be a foundation for the HDA frst half part. From there comes the hard part calculation wise I think.

IE if Stoke are 1-0 up v Liverpool at HT, you would need a calculation that gave the chance of Liverpool winning a half against Stoke by 2 or more goals. Similarly for a 2 goal lead, you'd need Liverpool's probability of winning by 3 goals in a half, and so on and so on.

So in theory (and this is where your expertise comes in Mat :D ) If you were to use the probability of scores for a half of football (using half the ave goals from the original formula from goals scored home v away, for and against) then I guess you could add the necessary scores to approximate all outcomes. Ie get the half time 'result' from the ht score probabilities and then add all the half scores that would make that outcome become HA HD HH etc etc.

[mathare]

Ooh, this is the sort of area I have thought about getting into in the past and never found the time as there are a lot of variables to consider.

In your Stoke 1-0 Liverpool at HT example how do you work out the probability of Liverpool scoring at least two more than Stoke in the second half. You need to work out the probability of Stoke scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 goals etc and thus Liverpool scoring 2, 3, 4 etc. But what data do you use as the basis for this?

You could use:
Liverpool's goalscoring frequency away from home
Frequency of Stoke conceding at home
Combination of above (straight average)
Weighted average of above
Above data based on 90 minutes or just second half
etc
But suppose you somehow get as far as knowing that Liverpool are expected to score 1.3 goals in the second half, what use is that? You can then use Poisson probabilities to work out the likelihood of them scoring 2 or more, 3 or more etc.

As with anything though it's a model and thus contains assumptions and inherent inaccuracies. But it's a good starting point

[MattR]

What I have used to some success although I'm still trying to accumulate data over time to see if there are any trends is this:


HT (Home team)
AT (Away team)
GF (goals for)
GA (Goals against)

HT GF + AT GA / ( (HT home games played + AT away games played)/ 2)

to give a Home team goal total/potential call it what you will

then opposite for away team ie AT GF + HT GA etc

then these two totals are used for the poisson distribution of possible scores to give odds of any particular score happening.

I've had a bit of success dutching the four most likely scores together but never really tested it at any length. I've also used it to generate match odds by adding each potential score up ie home/draw/away

Then I tried halving the original team goal totals and using the poisson on scores again to get likely half time scores and also via that a half time match odds prediction. This again seems fairly good although again with limited testing.

But what I am thinking is if I have the lprobability of scores per half then perhaps by adding the permutations you can come up with odds for HH, HD etc. Ideally I imagine you should really break the original calculations up into the data for each half that the teams score their goals but that could become very long winded getting the data and would it be any more useful?

The hardest part would be getting the sheet set up I imagine as there are numerous possibilities to be added. IE Home half time 1-0 to become HH would have to add 1-0 one half to a 0-0, a 1-0,2-0,3-0,3-1 and so on. Then a 2-0 to 0-0,0-1,1-2,1-0 etc etc

[Street cry]

you could get soccer mystic that might help you

[mathare]

What I have used to some success although I'm still trying to accumulate data over time to see if there are any trends is this:

HT GF + AT GA / ( (HT home games played + AT away games played)/ 2)

to give a Home team goal total/potential call it what you will

then opposite for away team ie AT GF + HT GA etcThat's certainly a sensible way of doing it as it measures home attack against away defence and vice versa.


then these two totals are used for the poisson distribution of possible scores to give odds of any particular score happening. You know about Poisson distributions, good. Were you aware that Excel can do all the hard work for you in calculating the probabilities?


Then I tried halving the original team goal totals and using the poisson on scores again to get likely half time scores and also via that a half time match odds prediction. This again seems fairly good although again with limited testing. If you have the HT and FT scores you can take the FT score from the HT score to give two separate scorelines - first half and second half. You could then calculate your figures above based only on first half or second half data if you liked and see how this compares to simply halving the expected goal totals.


But what I am thinking is if I have the lprobability of scores per half then perhaps by adding the permutations you can come up with odds for HH, HD etc. Ideally I imagine you should really break the original calculations up into the data for each half that the teams score their goals but that could become very long winded getting the data and would it be any more useful? Two ways of doing this really:
1) do it based on scores so calculate the probaility that the home team will be winning 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 etc at half-time and then calculate the second half score probability based on what you want the full-time result to be. That's the long (thorough?) way
2) check the HT results to see how often a team is winning at HT and FT, how often they go in ahead at HT but draw at FT etc.

The HT score data is all easily available online in Excel/CSV format


The hardest part would be getting the sheet set up I imagine as there are numerous possibilities to be added. IE Home half time 1-0 to become HH would have to add 1-0 one half to a 0-0, a 1-0,2-0,3-0,3-1 and so on. Then a 2-0 to 0-0,0-1,1-2,1-0 etc etcThis is where it all gets messy, yes. What's to stop a 1-0 HT result from becoming a 4-4 draw, for example? Nothing, so for each HT score possibility you need to calculate a raft of second half score possibilities too. You need to check all the combinations and there are going to be lots!

[MattR]

Yes I've got a sheet that I found some years back with poisson correct scores that I've adapted in various formats.


Just been playing around with what should be the simplest outcome to do, the DD. This would seem to be the least number of possible second half scores so the simplest to do first. The sheet goes up to 7-0/7-7/0-7 which is ample I think to cover all but the rarest of scores. Maybe even 6 would be enough. Anyway it's 7 for now as it's already there.

So as most games today are cup games and using it on euro with teams in different leagues is not really ideal I'll pick a game from yesterday to get the goal stats.

I'll use Grimsby Mat!

So we have Macclesfield v Grimsby (and I have remembered to remove last nights games from the league table) This could be quite a skewed one looking at it as Macclesfield have managed to lose 1-4 and 0-6 at home I see! anyway let's see how it pans out

this gives us a home and away team initial goals potential of:

1.56 to 1.39 I have seen stats and used the ones at football data that shows on average around 43% of goals are scored in the first half so could split it into two sets of poisson scores using 43% for 1st half and 57% for second half and that may be a good idea but for the moment I'll just split the match total in half.

So using 0.78 v 0.695 for a half's goals we come up with ht match odds of:

Home 2.94
Draw 2.70
Away 3.45

draw scores of
00 22.88%
11 12.40%
22 1.68%
33 0.10%
44 0.00%
55 0.00%
66 0.00%
77 0.00%

naturally the second half also has to be a draw so those 8 scores are the only possible second half scorelines that will produce a DD result.

This is where I'm getting confused on what calculation we'd need to do now. For the half I've used 1/ the total of the draws (37.07%) to get the 2.70 odds but what calculation is required to get the DD odds??

[mathare]

Nothing is ever as simple as it seems is it?

What you need to do is calculate the chance of the first half being a draw and multiply that by the chance of the second half being a draw. If the chance of the HT result being a draw is 37.07% then as you've halved the goals totals the second half must be the same chance as the first so another 37.07%. So if 37% of games are draws at HT and only 37% of second halves are a draw then the chance of a game being a draw at HT and FT is 37% x 37% = 13.74% or odds of around 7.28 for the double result.

I think.

[MattR]

I think.

:laugh


That makes sense. I wonder what the actual odds were? I'm going to do it on a polish cup game that's on today as although not ideal being a cup tie at least the two teams are in the same division.


OK we have Cracovia Krakow v Wisla Krakow which apart from being a fairly impressive scrabble score I don't know an awful lot more about. As I say it is a cup match so who knows what strength teams they are putting out but if we base it on the league Crac are 15th and Wisla 4th

Potential half goals gives us

0.28 v 0.50

a drawing half % of 1.91 match odds 52.49% so DD predicted odds of 3.63

Betfair currently at 6.00

However Cracovia home record of 3 scored 6 against in 7 games and Wisla's 10 scored in 7 games suggests not too many goals in the game assuming proper teams are put out.

So, (in theory!) Sounds a good value bet at 6.00!


So to get the other ht/ft odds it's going to be a case of multiplying each first half home win score % (in case of HH, HD, HA) by all other possible scores that create the final result, then totalling them up and divide into 1?

[mathare]

I'm wondering if this can be simplified at all. Take the HD example - we know that at HT the home team is winning so during the second half we need the away team to 'win' by the same amount to force the draw. Can we easily work out the chances of the away team scoring 1 goal, 2 goals etc more than the home team during the second half? Do we need to?

The chances of a draw at full time is built up from the probabilities of both sides scoring the same number of goals throughout the game. So the chance of a 0-0 is the probability of the home side scoring 0 and the away side doing the same, based on Poisson distributions using the full match goal total figures. Similarly 1-1, 2-2 etc. Using those we can work out the chances of a draw at the final whistle.

What about a home win at HT? Then we use the first half goal totals and do similar to the above calculation but summing the probabilities of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 etc. Or, and this has just occurred to me we work out the Poisson probability of a team scoring 1 goal or less, 2 goals or less etc - which Excel can do for us - and then use those. For example the combined probabilities of 2-0 and 2-1 are the same as multiplying the probability of the home team scoring 2 goals and the away team scoring 1 goal or less.

Am I confusing anyone else or just me?

[MattR]

Actually that makes sense Mat, narrowing it down into groups. So for instance the home team is 2 goals up we'd then just need the chance of the away team scoring 3 or more in a half and the home team not scoring for the HT result to become HH etc etc . At least I think that's what you mean :D



EDIT: I wonder if you could use a vlookup table for this

[mathare]

Actually that makes sense Mat, narrowing it down into groups. So for instance the home team is 2 goals up we'd then just need the chance of the away team scoring 3 or more in a half and the home team not scoring for the HT result to become HH etc etc . At least I think that's what you mean :DThat's exactly what I meant, yes. Thank you.

[MattR]

Actually i think the easiest way to break this down will be into

ht scores 1 more than at
2 more than etc and vice versa

then those can be applied to the ht score

rather than every score

[MattR]

I think I've cracked it (possibly!)


I've got a table of ht by 1, by 2 and so on, on to draw and then away team leading by 1 etc, with same across the top. Then those events that don't give the desired result ie 1-0 ht and 2 goals by away team in second half are not included in that particular line.


Just did it for HH, DD, AA and DD came out the same at 3.62 so it all looks correct

so far we have on betfair in black (106% market) , mine in blue

HH 10.5 8.8
HD 19.5
HA 28
DH 12.5
DD 5.5 3.62
DA 5.0
AH 55
AD 17.5
AA 2.96 3.61


Will add the rest as I get done with the table.

[MattR]

Ok the final figures were


HH 10.5 8.8
HD 19.5 28.6
HA 28 381
DH 12.5 12.04
DD 5.5 3.62
DA 5.0 6.01
AH 55 65.14
AD 17.5 28.62
AA 2.96 3.61


So probability wise, DD and HH were two perceived 'value' bets whilst DD and AA looked the most likely outcomes with DA a decent possibility too. This all of course depends on what sort of sides two Polish teams put out in the league cup!


Well the game finished about 20 mins ago and it was 0-0 so DD was infact the result!


I just ran the other Polish cup game that kicked off at the same time out of interest and that gave

HH 4.43
HD 20.85
HA 75.27
DH 7.82
DD 5.08
DA 8.40
AH 89.24
AD 20.85
AA 4.87


The actual result of this one was AA 0-1/1-2



I might run the champs league for the hell of it, not sure what to do goals wise though. Not really enough info in 4 group games so may add the group game record to their league record and do it that way. Not ideal by any means but I'll see what it throws up anyway!

[MattR]

These are the mostly like outcomes according to the data I've used. The data isn't really that reliable i don't think because I've had to use their own form in their own leagues which doesn't really match up well when you have the likes of Inter v Panathinaikos for example where Pana's home league stats make them appear much better than they are in comparison to Inter. But for the sake of curiosity I want to see how they fare. It will be a much better test to do on a set of league fixtures so will do some for the weekend and see how they go. For now though here are the champs lge for tonight.

Those in bold are under the actual current betfair price and technically value bets if the stats are reliable and also if the teams in question have anything to play for and play full teams of course!


Anorthosis v Werder HH 2.95
Atl Madrid v PSV HH 2.52
Brodeaux v Chelsea AA 3.64
Cluj v Roma HH 3.11
Inter v Panthinaikos DD 3.99
Liverpool v Marseille HH 3.71
Shakhter v Basel HH 3.94
Sp Lisbon v Barcelona AA 2.77



Below are the three most likely outcomes

Anorthosis v Werder HH DH AA
Atl Madrid v PSV HH DH DD
Brodeaux v Chelsea AA DD HH
Cluj v Roma HH DD DH
Inter v Panthinaikos DD HH AA
Liverpool v Marseille HH DD AA
Shakhter v Basel HH AA DD
Sp Lisbon v Barcelona AA DA DD

[MattR]

4/8 correct which is encouraging! 6/8 were correct for the half time result as well. Not going to read too much into it though at this stage until I've seen how it goes on league matches.


Anorthosis v Werder HH 2.95 result DD
Atl Madrid v PSV HH 2.52
Bordeaux v Chelsea AA 3.64 result AD
Cluj v Roma HH 3.11 result AA
Inter v Panthinaikos DD 3.99 result DA
Liverpool v Marseille HH 3.71
Shakhter v Basel HH 3.94
Sp Lisbon v Barcelona AA 2.77

[MattR]

Got chance to play around a bit more with this over the weekend and though it's a little bit more work getting the first half goals for/aga I've decided that's a better way to split it. The question now is what to do with the predicted odds against the real odds on offer. Do you take the lowest predicted odds and just bet, or the once with the most 'perceived' value price or or or or....

So I've decided to run two tests. The lowest price and the three best 'value' odds dutched together. Will be intermittent as it depends on having the time available. I've run tonights championship games so will see what comes from that.

Will post them shortly and see how they go

[MattR]

Test 1 - Lowest odds from predicted odds

Team (pred/actual)

Burnley HH 3.52/3.80
Coventry AA 3.53/5.90
Sheff Utd AA 3.72/4.70
Birmingham AA 4.32/4.00
Preston HH 3.84/3.00
Sheff Weds HH 2.28/4.40
Swansea HH 2.72/3.05
Wolves HH 2.11/2.54
Reading HH 2.62/2.32

Test 2 - Dutching three predicted odds that are under real odds - if there are more than three then I will take the three lowest, if there are less than 3 then will just take what there is as the bet


Burnley HH,DD,AA BF Dutched odds: 1.70
Charlton DA,AA 2 only BF Dutched odds: 3.50
Nottm F DD,DA,AA BF Dutched odds: 1.90
Plymouth HH 1 only BF odds: 6.40
Preston DH,DD,AA BF Dutched odds: 2.20
Sheff W HH,DH 2 only BF Dutched odds: 2.60
Swansea HH,AD,AA BF Dutched odds: 2.00
Wolves HH 1 only BF odds: 2.54
Reading DH,DA,AA BF Dutched odds: 3.30


Stand out odds (according to predicted odds v available odds)
Sheff Weds HH 2.28 actual odds 4.40
Sheff Utd AA 3.71 actual odds 4.70
Plymouth HH 4.47 actual odds 6.40
Blackpool AA 12.20 actual odds 17.50


Will assume a £10 stake on these tests, although only a test and not betting them myself. Although I may have a fun couple of pounds on the stand out ones.

[counterfeit]

I've always thought that the football markets were not quite right so it is with some relief and gratitude that some geniuses (might have known it would be this forum) have worked it out and proved the odds are wrong.

I guess the long term profit is in the biggest value bets (presumably in terms of % rather than price). There could be a magnificently expensive piece of software in this!

[mathare]

There could be a magnificently expensive piece of software in this!Tell me about it!

[MattR]

As an added interest to this I'm listing below the HT match odds as they are produced on my sheet when I'm putting in the first half goals data.


Predicted odds

Home Team Home Odds/Draw Odds/Away Odds

Burnely 2.86---2.12---5.60
Charlton 3.72---2.68---2.79
Nottm F 4.45---2.22----3.08
Plymouth 3.34---2.50---3.34
Preston 3.20---1.93---5.93
Sheff W 2.24---2.327---8.76
Swansea 2.49---2.66---4.50
Wolves 1.96---2.67---8.74
Reading 2.29---2.43---6.62

From that we have

'Value Priced' Half Time Match Odds

Team Pred/Actual

Coventry (Away) 2.79---3.90
Plymouth (Home) 3.34---4.30
Preston (Draw) 1.93---2.24
Sheff W (Home) 2.24---3.25
Wolves (Home) 1.96---2.14


and for a bit of fun on these value ones as betfair have half time corr score markets

Ht Score pred/actual

Coventry
0-1 5.33---6.00
0-2 13.32---24.00
1-2 20.49---32.00
Any 13.44---24.00


Plymouth
1-0 5.80---6.20
2-0 17.00---25.00
2-1 24.00---34.00
Any 14.90---28.00

Preston
0-0 2.23---2.86

Sheff W
1-0 3.60---5.20
2-0 9.70---18.00
Any 23.48---28.00

Wolves
1-0 3.70---3.95
2-0 7.70---9.40
Any 13.39---14.50

[MattR]

Good start on these....:)

'Value Priced' Half Time Match Odds

Team Pred/Actual

Coventry (Away) 2.79---3.90 Won +29.00
Plymouth (Home) 3.34---4.30 Lost -10
Preston (Draw) 1.93---2.24 Won +12.40
Sheff W (Home) 2.24---3.25 Lost -10
Wolves (Home) 1.96---2.14 Won +11.40


Ht Score pred/actual

Coventry
0-1 5.33---6.00Won +50
0-2 13.32---24.00Lost -10
1-2 20.49---32.00Lost -10
Any 13.44---24.00Lost -10


Plymouth
1-0 5.80---6.20Lost -10
2-0 17.00---25.00Lost -10
2-1 24.00---34.00Lost -10
Any 14.90---28.00Lost -10

Preston
0-0 2.23---2.86Won 18.60

Sheff W
1-0 3.60---5.20Lost -10
2-0 9.70---18.00Lost -10
Any 23.48---28.00Lost -10

Wolves
1-0 3.70---3.95Lost -10
2-0 7.70---9.40Won 84.00
Any 13.39---14.50Lost -10


Half time Match odds total: +32.80 :)
Half time scores total: +32.60 :)

[MattR]

Lowest odds from predicted odds

Team (pred/actual)

Burnley HH 3.52/3.80 Lost -10
Coventry AA 3.53/5.90 Won +49.00
Sheff Utd AA 3.72/4.70 Won +37.00
Birmingham AA 4.32/4.00 Lost -10
Preston HH 3.84/3.00 Lost -10
Sheff Weds HH 2.28/4.40 Lost -10
Swansea HH 2.72/3.05 Lost -10
Wolves HH 2.11/2.54 Won +15.40
Reading HH 2.62/2.32 Won +13.32

Dutching three predicted odds that are under real odds - if there are more than three then I will take the three lowest, if there are less than 3 then will just take what there is as the bet


Burnley HH,DD,AA BF Dutched odds: 1.70 Won +7.00
Charlton DA,AA 2 only BF Dutched odds: 3.50 Won +25.00
Nottm F DD,DA,AA BF Dutched odds: 1.90 Won +9.00
Plymouth HH 1 only BF odds: 6.40 Lost -10
Preston DH,DD,AA BF Dutched odds: 2.20 Won +12.00
Sheff W HH,DH 2 only BF Dutched odds: 2.60 Won +16.00
Swansea HH,AD,AA BF Dutched odds: 2.00 Lost -10
Wolves HH 1 only BF odds: 2.54 Won +15.40
Reading DH,DA,AA BF Dutched odds: 3.30 Lost -10



Stand out odds (according to predicted odds v available odds)
Sheff Weds HH 2.28 actual odds 4.40 Lost -10
Sheff Utd AA 3.71 actual odds 4.70 Won +37.7
Plymouth HH 4.47 actual odds 6.40 Lost -10
Blackpool AA 12.20 actual odds 17.50 Lost -10





Nights results:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +64.72 :) 4/9

Dutched HTFT's: +54.40 :) 6/9

Stand Out Value HTFT's: +7.70 :) 1/4

Half time Match odds: +32.80 :) 3/5

Half time scores: +32.60 :) 3/4


Wow :spinning

[counterfeit]

well, that's a good experiment. If that keeps up for the next 6 weeks or so you'll be rich. Rich, rich, rich. £190 per match day.

Actually, being serious, it does seem very good and as I said above, really does prove the poor value being offered.

Well done and let's hope it keeps going that way.

[MattR]

Thanks CF. Certainly a promising start! In the end I actually put small bets on the value ones and the lowest predicted htft odds just for a bit of fun and made £26 odd so that was nice!



Lowest Priced Predicted Odds:

Team, pred/actual
Nice HH 3.70/3.05 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH 2.62/3.35 Postponed
Ipswich HH 3.31/3.20 Lost -10.00
Watford HH 3.04/3.60
Godoy Cruz HH 3.09/5.80

Value Dutched:

Game, Picks, Dutched price
Nice HD,DA,AA, 4.80 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH,AH,AD,AA (done all 4 here as price ok), 1.90 Postponed
Ipswich DD,DA 2 only, 3.90 Lost -10.00
Watford HH 1 only, 3.70
Godoy Cruz HH, DH 2 only, 3.40

Stand Out Value HTFT - some interesting high one's thrown up today

Nice HA 52.37/70.00 Lost -10.00
Nice HD 16.68/20.00 Lost -10.00
Nice DA 6.92/14.50 Lost -10.00
Ipswich DA 8.12/12.50 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH 2.62/3.05 Postponed
Bellinzona AH 24.44/32.00 Postponed
Bellinzona AD 12.48/16.50 Postponed
Bellinzona AA 4.93/7.60 Postponed
Watford HH 3.04/3.70
Godoy Cruz HH 3.09/5.90
Godoy Cruz DH 5.84/8.00

If I were betting these stand out value one's then I think I would dutch the one's with more than one selection in.

Half time match odds bits to follow later.

[MattR]

'Value Priced' Half Time Match Odds

Team pick pred/actual

Watford (Home) 2.41/2.82 Won +18.20
Vaduz (Away) 2.90/4.40 Postponed
Godoy Cruz (Home) 2.55/3.85


Half Time Scores based on above picks (only market for Watford)

Watford
1-0 4.54/4.90 Won +39.00
2-0 10.68/13.50 Lost -10.00
2-1 21.35/23.00 Lost -10.00
Any 14.60/19.00 Lost -10.00

[Iron Chris]

Looking a very interesting thread this Matt. Obviously a lot of time and effort has gone into it so I hope you keep the stats coming, I will be following with interest...:thumbs

[MattR]

Thanks Chris. I'm pleased with how it's gone so far, looks promising. I'm actually going away this sunday for three weeks or so, so it may have to go on hold for then, although I might be able to post something but not sure about that. Will do what there is for thursday and friday and aim to get the Premier done for saturday and would like to do all the English leagues if I get time. Will certainly keep it going once I get back anyway.


Tonight's results (Godoy yet to start)

Lowest Priced Predicted Odds:

Team, pred/actual
Nice HH 3.70/3.05 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH 2.62/3.35 Postponed
Ipswich HH 3.31/3.20 Lost -10.00
Watford HH 3.04/3.60 Won +26.00
Godoy Cruz HH 3.09/5.80 Not played yet

Value Dutched:

Game, Picks, Dutched price
Nice HD,DA,AA, 4.80 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH,AH,AD,AA (done all 4 here as price ok), 1.90 Postponed
Ipswich DD,DA 2 only, 3.90 Lost -10.00
Watford HH 1 only, 3.70 Won +27.00
Godoy Cruz HH, DH 2 only, 3.40 Not played yet


Stand Out Value HTFT

Nice HA 52.37/70.00 Lost -10.00
Nice HD 16.68/20.00 Lost -10.00
Nice DA 6.92/14.50 Lost -10.00
Ipswich DA 8.12/12.50 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH 2.62/3.05 Postponed
Bellinzona AH 24.44/32.00 Postponed
Bellinzona AD 12.48/16.50 Postponed
Bellinzona AA 4.93/7.60 Postponed
Watford HH 3.04/3.70 Won +27.00
Godoy Cruz HH 3.09/5.90 Not played yet
Godoy Cruz DH 5.84/8.00 Not played yet


'Value Priced' Half Time Match Odds

Team pick pred/actual

Watford (Home) 2.41/2.82 Won +18.20
Vaduz (Away) 2.90/4.40 Postponed
Godoy Cruz (Home) 2.55/3.85 Not played yet

Half Time Scores based on above picks (only market for Watford)

Watford
1-0 4.54/4.90 Won +39.00
2-0 10.68/13.50 Lost -10.00
2-1 21.35/23.00 Lost -10.00
Any 14.60/19.00 Lost -10.00



Nights results:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +6.00 1/3 (1 to play)
Dutched HTFT's: +7.00 1/3 (1 to play)
Stand Out Value HTFT's: -13.00 1/5 (1 to play)
Half time Match odds: +18.20 1/1 (1 to play)
Half time scores: +9.00 1/1



Total to date

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +70.72 5/12
Dutched HTFT's: +61.40 5/12
Stand Out Value HTFT's: -5.30 7/14
Half time Match odds: +51.00 4/6
Half time scores: +41.60 4/5


Total +219.42 :)

[counterfeit]

fantastic results - look forward to these for the weekend and when you get back.

I might even start to have a little dabble.

[MattR]

Thanks CF,

Godoy won 2-1 but unfortunately were 0-1 down at ht, so losing bets all round on them. Shame it hadn't been 0-0 ht as that would have been +74 instead of the -50 it was.


Lowest Priced Predicted Odds:

Team, pred/actual
Nice HH 3.70/3.05 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH 2.62/3.35 Postponed
Ipswich HH 3.31/3.20 Lost -10.00
Watford HH 3.04/3.60 Won +26.00
Godoy Cruz HH 3.09/5.80 Lost -10.00

Value Dutched:

Game, Picks, Dutched price
Nice HD,DA,AA, 4.80 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH,AH,AD,AA (done all 4 here as price ok), 1.90 Postponed
Ipswich DD,DA 2 only, 3.90 Lost -10.00
Watford HH 1 only, 3.70 Won +27.00
Godoy Cruz HH, DH 2 only, 3.40 Lost -10.00



Stand Out Value HTFT

Nice HA 52.37/70.00 Lost -10.00
Nice HD 16.68/20.00 Lost -10.00
Nice DA 6.92/14.50 Lost -10.00
Ipswich DA 8.12/12.50 Lost -10.00
Bellinzona HH 2.62/3.05 Postponed
Bellinzona AH 24.44/32.00 Postponed
Bellinzona AD 12.48/16.50 Postponed
Bellinzona AA 4.93/7.60 Postponed
Watford HH 3.04/3.70 Won +27.00
Godoy Cruz HH 3.09/5.90 Lost -10.00
Godoy Cruz DH 5.84/8.00 Lost -10.00


'Value Priced' Half Time Match Odds

Team pick pred/actual

Watford (Home) 2.41/2.82 Won +18.20
Vaduz (Away) 2.90/4.40 Postponed
Godoy Cruz (Home) 2.55/3.85 Lost -10.00


Half Time Scores based on above picks (only market for Watford)

Watford
1-0 4.54/4.90 Won +39.00
2-0 10.68/13.50 Lost -10.00
2-1 21.35/23.00 Lost -10.00
Any 14.60/19.00 Lost -10.00



Nights results:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: -4.00 1/4
Dutched HTFT's: -3.00 1/4
Stand Out Value HTFT's: -33.00 1/6
Half time Match odds: +8.20 1/2
Half time scores: +9.00 1/1



Total to date

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +60.72 5/13
Dutched HTFT's: +51.40 5/13
Stand Out Value HTFT's: -25.30 7/16
Half time Match odds: +41.00 4/7
Half time scores: +41.60 4/5


Total +169.42 :)


Stand out value one's in minus so far but that is potentially, due to the higher odds in a lot of cases, one where one win could send it shooting up, so will see over time how it pans out.

[John]

At some stage today, I have this whole thread to read :) - looks amazing Matt!

[MattR]

Just 1 French Div 2 game today. Hopefully get Friday's done later.

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's:
Lens DH 4.38/5.00


Dutched HTFT's:
Lens HA,DH,DA,AA Odds: 1.80


Stand Out Value HTFT's:
Lens DH 4.38/5.00
Lens DA 5.36/14.00
Lens HA 61.48/80.00


Half time Match odds:
Lens (Draw) 1.67


Half time scores:
Lens 0-0 1.82/2.88
Lens 0-1 6.83/8.20

[Iron Chris]

Was it something I said...:doh... I make positive comments on both yours and Johns' threads and you both say that you are now going away and the threads will be on hold...:laugh

[MattR]

:laugh

2 late Montpellier goals means DA 0-0/0-2

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's:
Lens DH 4.38/5.00 Lost -10


Dutched HTFT's:
Lens HA,DH,DA,AA Odds: 1.80 Won +8.00


Stand Out Value HTFT's:
Lens DH 4.38/5.00 Lost -10
Lens DA 5.36/14.00 Won +130.00 :wiggle:
Lens HA 61.48/80.00 Lost -10



Half time Match odds:
Lens (Draw) 1.67 Won +6.70


Half time scores:
Lens 0-0 1.82/2.88 Won +18.80
Lens 0-1 6.83/8.20 Lost -10



Nights results:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: -10.00 0/1
Dutched HTFT's: +8.00 1/1
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +110.00 1/3
Half time Match odds: +16.70 1/1
Half time scores: +8.80 1/1



Total to date

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +50.72 6/14
Dutched HTFT's: +59.40 6/14
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +84.70 8/19
Half time Match odds: +57.70 5/8
Half time scores: +50.40 5/6


Total +302.92 :)

[John]

Was it something I said...:doh... I make positive comments on both yours and Johns' threads and you both say that you are now going away and the threads will be on hold...:laugh

:laugh Sorry Chris! Something in the air... :D

Matt, what can I say, this is amazing, and good to see so far the efforts are paying off well. What data did you end up basing your decisions on? What I mean is, to get your odds, what's the core thing? E.g. Man United playing at home to Chelsea will produce higher odds for a HT and FT draw than Man United playing at home to West Brom. Which criteria did you plump for? (From Mat's bullet points at the top of the first page / other criteria) I'm asking cos this looks really interesting! :D

Keep up the good work, will be watching with an eagle eye. :thumbs

[MattR]

Thanks John.

Friday's games:

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's:
Frankfurt DH 4.20/7.60 Won +66.00
Koblenz HH 2.25/3.40 Lost -10
Duisburg AA 4.11/4.50 Lost -10
Dortmund HH 2.38/2.34 Won +13.40
Galatasaray AA 4.15/2.80 Won +18.00
Mechelen DH 4.11/7.20 Won +62.00
Ajax HH 2.92/2.20 Won +12.00
Albinoleffe HH 2.91/3.25 Lost -10
Chesterfield DH 4.42/5.70 Lost -10
MK Dons AA 2.57/4.20 Lost -10
Lincoln HH 3.33/3.40 Lost -10
Newells DH 4.76/5.50

-60 171.40

Dutched HTFT's:
Frankfurt DH/DA 3.74 Won +27.40
Koblenz HH 3.25 Lost -10
Osanabruck HH/DH/AD/AA 1.70 Lost -10
Dortmund AD/AA 10.27 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi HH/HD/DH 4.5 Lost -10
Mechelen HH/DD/DA 1.90 Lost -10
Ajax HD/HA/DA/AA 5.90 Lost -10
Albinoleffe HH/HA/AA 2.40 Lost -10
Chesterfield DH/AD/AA 2.90 Won +19.00
Brighton AD/AA 3.30 Lost -10
Lincoln DD/AD/AA 2.84 Lost -10
Newells AH/AD/AA 4.50

-90 46.40

Stand Out Value HTFT's:
Game/Pick/ pred odds/actual
FSV Frankfurt DH 4.20/7.60 Won +66.00
FSV Frankfurt DA 5.89/7.40 Lost -10
Koblenz HH 2.23/3.25 Lost -10
Osnabruck HH 4.77/5.80 Lost -10
Osnabruck DH 6.99/8.00 Lost -10
Dortmund AD 20.21/26.00 Lost -10
Dortmund AA 8.61/17.00 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi HH 5.13/10.50 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi DH 8.12/12.00 Lost -10
Mechelen DH 4.10/7.20 Won +62.00
Ajax HD 15.65/22.00 Lost -10
Ajax HA 43.93/70.00 Lost -10
Ajax DA 8.31/23.00 Lost -10
Ajax AA 11.57/16.50 Lost -10
Albinoleffe AA 7.81/11.50 Lost -10
Chesterfield DH 4.42/5.70 Lost -10
Chesterfield AD 13.19/18.00 Lost -10
Chesterfield AA 5.53/8.60 Won +76.00
Brighton AA 2.57/4.20 Lost -10
Lincoln DD 5.09/5.80 Lost -10
Lincoln AA 6.49/8.00 Lost -10

-180 204



Value Priced Half time Match odds:
Frankfurt (Draw) 1.77/2.26 Won +12.60
Koblenz (Home) 2.05/2.58 Lost -10
Osnabruck (Away) 2.99/3.20 Lost -10
Dortmund (Away) 5.20/8.00 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi (Home) 3.71/5.7 Lost -10
Mechelen (Draw) 1.85/2.26 Won +12.60
Ajax (Draw) 2.35/2.74 Lost -10
Chesterfield (Away) 3.18/4.70 Won +37.00
Brighton (Away) 2.06/2.98 Lost -10
Newells (Away) 2.92/4.20

-60 62.20

Half time scores:
Frankfurt 0-0 1.99/3.35 Won +23.50

Koblenz 1-0 4.21/4.50 Lost -10
Koblenz 2-0 8.42/13.00 Lost -10
Koblenz 2-1 19.24/23.00 Lost -10
Koblenz Any 11.16/18.50 Lost -10

Duisburg 1-0 5.08/5.40 Lost -10
Duisburg 2-0 14.77/16.50 Lost -10

M'Gladbach 1-0 8.69/11.00 Lost -10
M'Gladbach 2-0 32.57/55.00 Lost -10
M'Gladbach 2-1 32.57/46.00 Lost -10
M'Gladbach Any 10.42/13.00 Lost -10

Genclerbirligi 1-0 5.89/7.80 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi 2-0 20.63/36.00 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi 2-1 32.08/34.00 Lost -10

Mechelen 0-0 2.08/3.20 Won +23.20

Ajax 0-0 2.94/4.10 Lost -10

-140 46.70

[MattR]

Friday's results/ Mixed bag. The value ht/ft and ht score one's are going to be the most volatile I think as they are more likely to throw up a less likely result but when they win (like thursday night's 13/1) then they will throw in a nice profit boost.


Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's:
Frankfurt DH 4.20/7.60 Won +66.00
Koblenz HH 2.25/3.40 Lost -10
Duisburg AA 4.11/4.50 Lost -10
Dortmund HH 2.38/2.34 Won +13.40
Galatasaray AA 4.15/2.80 Won +18.00
Mechelen DH 4.11/7.20 Won +62.00
Ajax HH 2.92/2.20 Won +12.00
Albinoleffe HH 2.91/3.25 Lost -10
Chesterfield DH 4.42/5.70 Lost -10
MK Dons AA 2.57/4.20 Lost -10
Lincoln HH 3.33/3.40 Lost -10
Newells DH 4.76/5.50 Won +45.00


Dutched HTFT's:
Frankfurt DH/DA 3.74 Won +27.40
Koblenz HH 3.25 Lost -10
Osanabruck HH/DH/AD/AA 1.70 Lost -10
Dortmund AD/AA 10.27 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi HH/HD/DH 4.5 Lost -10
Mechelen HH/DD/DA 1.90 Lost -10
Ajax HD/HA/DA/AA 5.90 Lost -10
Albinoleffe HH/HA/AA 2.40 Lost -10
Chesterfield DH/AD/AA 2.90 Won +19.00
Brighton AD/AA 3.30 Lost -10
Lincoln DD/AD/AA 2.84 Lost -10
Newells AH/AD/AA 4.50 Lost -10



Stand Out Value HTFT's:
Game/Pick/ pred odds/actual
FSV Frankfurt DH 4.20/7.60 Won +66.00
FSV Frankfurt DA 5.89/7.40 Lost -10
Koblenz HH 2.23/3.25 Lost -10
Osnabruck HH 4.77/5.80 Lost -10
Osnabruck DH 6.99/8.00 Lost -10
Dortmund AD 20.21/26.00 Lost -10
Dortmund AA 8.61/17.00 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi HH 5.13/10.50 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi DH 8.12/12.00 Lost -10
Mechelen DH 4.10/7.20 Won +62.00
Ajax HD 15.65/22.00 Lost -10
Ajax HA 43.93/70.00 Lost -10
Ajax DA 8.31/23.00 Lost -10
Ajax AA 11.57/16.50 Lost -10
Albinoleffe AA 7.81/11.50 Lost -10
Chesterfield DH 4.42/5.70 Lost -10
Chesterfield AD 13.19/18.00 Lost -10
Chesterfield AA 5.53/8.60 Won +76.00
Brighton AA 2.57/4.20 Lost -10
Lincoln DD 5.09/5.80 Lost -10
Lincoln AA 6.49/8.00 Lost -10





Value Priced Half time Match odds:
Frankfurt (Draw) 1.77/2.26 Won +12.60
Koblenz (Home) 2.05/2.58 Lost -10
Osnabruck (Away) 2.99/3.20 Lost -10
Dortmund (Away) 5.20/8.00 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi (Home) 3.71/5.7 Lost -10
Mechelen (Draw) 1.85/2.26 Won +12.60
Ajax (Draw) 2.35/2.74 Lost -10
Chesterfield (Away) 3.18/4.70 Won +37.00
Brighton (Away) 2.06/2.98 Lost -10
Newells (Away) 2.92/4.20 Lost -10




Half time scores:
Frankfurt 0-0 1.99/3.35 Won +23.50

Koblenz 1-0 4.21/4.50 Lost -10
Koblenz 2-0 8.42/13.00 Lost -10
Koblenz 2-1 19.24/23.00 Lost -10
Koblenz Any 11.16/18.50 Lost -10

Duisburg 1-0 5.08/5.40 Lost -10
Duisburg 2-0 14.77/16.50 Lost -10

M'Gladbach 1-0 8.69/11.00 Lost -10
M'Gladbach 2-0 32.57/55.00 Lost -10
M'Gladbach 2-1 32.57/46.00 Lost -10
M'Gladbach Any 10.42/13.00 Lost -10

Genclerbirligi 1-0 5.89/7.80 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi 2-0 20.63/36.00 Lost -10
Genclerbirligi 2-1 32.08/34.00 Lost -10

Mechelen 0-0 2.08/3.20 Won +23.20

Ajax 0-0 2.94/4.10 Lost -10

-140 46.70


Friday Results
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +156.40 5/11
Dutched HTFT's: -53.60 2/12
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +24.00 3/21
Value Priced Half time Match odds: -7.80 3/10
Half time scores: -93.30 2/7







Total to date

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +207.12 11/25
Dutched HTFT's: +5.80 8/26
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +108.70 11/40
Value Priced Half time Match odds: +49.90 8/18
Half time scores: -42.90 7/13


Total +328.62 :)

[MattR]

Saturday:


Will hopefully get all the Premier done for today. Will add them as I go. Hull's an interesting one value wise due to their good away record so far and Liverpool's dull home record! They look unlikely and will probably prove costly but Hull do keep surprising everyone so who knows!

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's:
Arsenal AA 3.47/3.00 Lost -10.00
Aston Villa HH 3.76/2.90 Won +19.00
Liverpool HH 4.11/2.02 Lost -10.00
Man City HH 3.14/3.65 Lost -10.00
Stoke DD 2.96/5.20 Won +42.20
Sunderland HH 3.82/3.70 Won +27.00
Blackburn AA 3.80/7.20 Lost -10.00
Man Utd AA 3.64/3.35 Lost -10.00

Dutched HTFT's:
Middlesboro HH/DH/DD/DA 1.90 Won +9.00
Aston Villa DD/DA/AA 3.09 Lost -10.00
Liverpool HD/HA/DD/DA/AD/AA 3.50 Won +25.00
Man City HA/DH/DD/DA 2.90 Won +19.00
Stoke DH/DD/AA 1.90 Won +9.00
Sunderland DD/DA/AA 2.36 Lost -10.00
Wigan DD/DA/AD/AA 2.10 Lost -10.00
Tottenham HH/DH/DD/AD 2.40 Won +14.00



Stand Out Value HTFT's:
game/pick
Middlesboro HH 6.19/10.00 Lost -10.00
Middlesboro DH 8.56/12.00 Lost -10.00
Middlesboro DD 4.02/6.20 Won +52.00
Middlesboro DA 4.54/5.20 Lost -10.00
Aston Villa DD 4.64/6.20 Lost -10.00
Aston Villa DA 11.55/14.00 Lost -10.00
Aston Villa AA 6.29/11.00 Lost -10.00
Liverpool HD 18.66/24.00 Lost -10.00
Liverpool HA 55.75/100.00 Lost -10.00
Liverpool DD 4.94/8.00 Won +70.00
Liverpool DA 7.02/27.00 Lost -10.00
Liverpool AD 21.21/30.00 Lost -10.00
Liverpool AA 4.81/25.00 Lost -10.00
Man City HA 40.30/50.00 Lost -10.00
Man City DH 5.20/5.70 Lost -10.00
Man City DD 4.11/5.80 Lost -10.00
Man City DA 6.20/10.00 Won +90.00
Stoke DH 3.66/6.60 Lost -10.00
Stoke DD 2.96 /5.20 Won +42.20
Sundeland DD 4.02/5.60 Lost -10.00
Sunderland DA 7.44/9.80 Lost -10.00
Sunderland AA 5.96/7.00 Lost -10.00
Wigan AA 3.80/7.20 Lost -10.00
Tottenham DH 6.05/11.00 Lost -10.00
Tottenham DD 3.87/6.20 Won +52.20


Value Priced Half time Match odds:
Middlesboro (Home) 4.83/5.70 Lost -10.00
Middlesboro (Draw) 2.00/2.32 Won +13.20
Bolton (Away) 4.43/6.00 Lost -10.00
Liverpool (Draw) 2.22/2.70 Won +17.00
Hull (Away) 3.93/10.50 Lost -10.00
Man City (Draw) 2.03/2.26 Won +12.60
Stoke (Draw) 1.72/2.12 Won +11.20
Blackburn 2.95/4.40 Lost -10.00
Tottenham (Draw) 1.97/2.30 Won +13.00

Half time scores:
Middlesboro 0-0 2.40/3.10 Lost -10.00
Middlesboro 1-0 6.40/7.80 Lost -10.00

Bolton 1-0 6.21/8.20 Lost -10.00
Bolton 2-0 28.40/50.00 Lost -10.00
Bolton 2-1 50.49/55.00 Lost -10.00

Liverpool 0-0 2.89/3.40 Lost -10.00
Liverpool 1-1 10.29/14.50 Lost -10.00
Hull 1-0 5.79/12.50 Lost -10.00
Hull 2-0 23.15/100 Lost -10.00
Hull 2-1 41.15/80.00 Lost -10.00 Now that would have been nice!

Man City 0-0 2.40/3.00 Won +20.00

Stoke 0-0 1.90/2.76 Won +17.60
Fulham 1-0 5.20/5.90 Lost -10.00

Blackburn 1-0 4.63/6.60 Lost -10.00
Blackburn 2-0 14.81/30.00 Lost -10.00
Blackburn 2-1 33.96/38.00 Lost -10.00

Tottenham 0-0 2.25/3.10 Won +21.00

[MattR]

Half time scores minus again but due to the higher odds, less likely and bigger profit when they do win. Not far from a 2-1 Hull earlier which would have seen a £790 win! Something worth noting and I think when I get back I'll continue to log it separately is those ht score predictions for 0-0. To date the results on those are:

Preston 0-0 2.23---2.86Won 18.60
Lens 0-0 1.82/2.88 Won +18.80
Frankfurt 0-0 1.99/3.35 Won +23.50
Mechelen 0-0 2.08/3.20 Won +23.20
Ajax 0-0 2.94/4.10 Lost -10.00
Middlesboro 0-0 2.40/3.10 Lost -10.00
Liverpool 0-0 2.89/3.40 Lost -10.00
Man City 0-0 2.40/3.00 Won +20.00
Stoke 0-0 1.90/2.76 Won +17.60
Tottenham 0-0 2.25/3.10 Won +21.00

Half Time 0-0 Score: +112.70 7/10

[MattR]

Saturday results
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +38.20 3/8
Dutched HTFT's: +46.00 5/8
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +106.40 5/25
Value Priced Half time Match odds: +26.80 6/10
Half time scores: -81.40 3/7



Total to date:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +245.32 14/33
Dutched HTFT's: +51.80 13/34
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +215.10 16/68
Value Priced Half time Match odds: +76.70 14/28
ALL Half time scores: -124.30 10/20 (within that: Half time 0-0 +112.70 7/10)


Total: +464.72 :)


Well, still early days but very very encouraging so far! I'm away for about a month now but may get the chance to look in during that time.

If not then Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all the forum and especially those who provided help and advice during the year(s). Have a good one :thumbs :winer

[jonahjones]

Merry Christmas Matt and have a great time wherever you are going.

Good luck tomorrow against Newcastle.

Fantastic start with these. Keith, I think it's about time this thread was moved to the "members only" area. :)

[MattR]

Plan to continue with these with the league fixtures this tues/weds.

[wb]

Some great results thus far Matt.

[MattR]

Thanks Wayne. How are the systems going? Haven't done any racing bets for a while now but will be following your handicap thread again from monday. I've been concentrating on football and have also for the past week been using a variation of the spreadsheet I use for this football on ice hockey which looks promising so far.

[wb]

Pretty good thankfully. They've been paying their way this year and the NH is going great. I always considered myself a flat man, but I'm changing my mind to be honest.

[crazybadger]

I've read this thread several times (I've got a similar thing I wanted to try in rugby league, and also because I'm a math nut and this kind of thing interests me :D) and it all sounds good but the one thing that I keep thinking about is the level of data being used.

How far back do you go for data? Do you use previous seasons data? If so do you think it could skew the results as the teams change significantly in between season (i.e. the average goals for Newcastle last season might not reflect this season or vice versa)? Or do you only use the current seasons data? I would think that would be the best option but then you'd need to spend several rounds not betting at the start of each season to build stats and then the main question is when is the happy-medium between having enough stats to make the predictions accurate but also give you enough rounds/matches to bet on?

[MattR]

Those are exactly the same questions I've pondered over with no real definitive answer other than I only want to use the current season's stats. As to how many games, i think it needs at least 6 and possibly no more than the last 10-12 as ideally I think you need both a mix of teams played and at the same time recent(ish) form so as it has more bearing on the current game. This is what I have been using for this. As you say it does mean a few weeks of the season have to go by before you can start but perhaps this isn't a bad thing to let the league take shape.

I've been testing it with hockey using the last 8 home or away games with fairly encouraging results so far in the NHL, although it was only the four days before the all star break so very early days with it.

[crazybadger]

As to how many games, i think it needs at least 6 and possibly no more than the last 10-12 as ideally I think you need both a mix of teams played and at the same time recent(ish) form so as it has more bearing on the current game.

I didnt even think about recent result or "form" of the team like that. I might think about a weighting system to make sure the recent results have more influence than the earlier ones.

Side question - I'm going to read up on Poisson distribution, as I've never used it before but I'm curious as you said you found a spreadsheet somewhere that used it. Can you tell me where you go this?

[crazybadger]

Ok so I spent a couple of hours learning Poisson and how to use it, and then creating my own spreadsheet to test my learnings. I based it one of your earlier examples and tried to calculate the HT/FT odds. See below (mine in red)


Ok the final figures were

HH 10.5 8.8 8.83
HD 19.5 28.6 28.64
HA 28 381 99.97
DH 12.5 12.04 12.04
DD 5.5 3.62 3.63
DA 5.0 6.01 6.01
AH 55 65.14 192.35
AD 17.5 28.62 28.64
AA 2.96 3.61 3.62


It's pretty good! I'v got 2 big differences but that is quite possible as I just kept adding stuff to my spreadsheet willy-nilly while I was trying to learn it so something could be wrong somewhere. I'm happy that I got so many the same so I'm pretty confident I've learnt how this works.

Now I just have to apply to my NRL theory...the only problem there is that instead of going from 0-7 as each team's possible total I'd need to do something like 0 - 70! Maybe I'll write a program to do this...

Thanks!

[MattR]

That's good to see that I must have it right too as we have almost identical results!

If you get chance could you try it on one of the later ones because I'm pretty sure thinking back that I had something wrong on the HA and AH odds initially.

I am using first half scores and second half scores seperately as well now. Not sure whether that would make much difference in Rugby? Football of course is quite often a bit cagey in the first half especially if the away team have come for a draw so there can be a marked difference, would that translate to Rugby League?

I don't think the sheet I found is online any more as I couldn't find it when I searched recently. Fortunately I had an old copy on a cd that I had the foresight to save (must have been a good day!)

I can email it to you or put it up here if you like but it sounds like you've cracked it anyway.

I think the hardest thing is deciding which method to use to get the home and away rating. The one I've decided on seems fairly good so far but as to whether it is the best way, who knows?

The other key thing I can't decide on yet is whether it's best to take whatever the lowest odds are and say ok this is the most likely outcome and bet that. Or whether to go with the 'value' odds where bf/bookie is much higher than the probable outcome. I'm leaning towards the value odds.

Hope you start a thread on the NRL, would be interesting to see how it gets on as you go along.

Oh and I adapted mine last week (manually, in a fairly lengthy process!) to go from 60-130 to test it on basketball!

[MattR]

OK to recap, this is the current position
Total to date:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +245.32 14/33
Dutched HTFT's: +51.80 13/34
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +215.10 16/68
Value Priced Half time Match odds: +76.70 14/28
ALL Half time scores: -124.30 10/20 (within that: Half time 0-0 +112.70 7/10)

Total: +464.72

Will now be adding in a HT 0-0 as well as including it in the ALL half time scores section.


Tues 27/1 Premier

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's:
Sunderland DD 3.69/5.10
Man Utd AA 3.39/2.12
Portsmouth DD 4.14/5.50 2 equal on this game so will list both
Aston Villa AA 4.14/4.30
Tottenham HH 2.52/2.60


Dutched HTFT's:
Sunderland DD/DA/AA (2.19)
West Brom HH/DH/DD/AH/AD (3.74)
Portsmouth HH/HD/HA/DH/DD (1.83)
Tottenham HD/DH/DD/DA (2.12)


Stand Out Value HTFT's: (home team/pick)
Sunderland DD 3.69/5.10
Sunderland DA 7.93/9.20
Sunderland AA 5.59/6.60
West Brom HH 7.58/22.00
West Brom DH 9.21/23.00
West Brom DD 4.14/7.80
West Bom DA 4.13/4.78
West Brom AH 44.84/120.00
West Brom AD 13.98/24.00
Portsmouth HH 4.78/6.20
Portsmouth HD 15.78/18.50
Portsmoouth HA 29.32/34.00
Portsmouth DD 4.42/5.50
Portsmouth AA 4.14/4.30
Tottenham DH 17.91/21.00
Tottenham DD 4.42/6.40
Tottenham DA 9.73/16.50


Value Priced Half time Match odds:
Sunderland Draw 1.92/2.16
West Brom Draw 2.14/2.62
Portsmoth Draw 2.03/2.20
Tottenham Draw 2.10/2.38


ALL Half time scores:
Sunderland:
0-0 2.25/2.68
0-1 5.90/6.40

West Brom
0-0 2.60/3.25
1-0 8.16/12.50

Portsmouth
0-0 2.47/2.92
1-0 5.19/6.40
2-0 21.80/25.00

Tottenham
0-0 2.37/3.00
1-0 3.48/3.90


Half time 0-0:
Sunderland: 0-0 2.25/2.68
West Brom 0-0 2.60/3.25
Portsmouth 0-0 2.47/2.92
Tottenham 0-0 2.37/3.00

[MattR]

Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +40.20
Sunderland DD 3.69/5.10 -10.00
Man Utd AA 3.39/2.12 11.20
Portsmouth DD 4.14/5.50 2 equal on this game so will list both -10.00
Aston Villa AA 4.14/4.30 33.00
Tottenham HH 2.52/2.60 16.00


Dutched HTFT's: -40.00
Sunderland DD/DA/AA (2.19) -10.00
West Brom HH/DH/DD/AH/AD (3.74) -10.00
Portsmouth HH/HD/HA/DH/DD (1.83) -10.00
Tottenham HD/DH/DD/DA (2.12) -10.00


Stand Out Value HTFT's: (home team/pick) -127.00
Sunderland DD 3.69/5.10 -10.00
Sunderland DA 7.93/9.20 -10.00
Sunderland AA 5.59/6.60 -10.00
West Brom HH 7.58/22.00 -10.00
West Brom DH 9.21/23.00 -10.00
West Brom DD 4.14/7.80 -10.00
West Bom DA 4.13/4.78 -10.00
West Brom AH 44.84/120.00 -10.00
West Brom AD 13.98/24.00 -10.00
Portsmouth HH 4.78/6.20 -10.00
Portsmouth HD 15.78/18.50 -10.00
Portsmoouth HA 29.32/34.00 -10.00
Portsmouth DD 4.42/5.50 -10.00
Portsmouth AA 4.14/4.30 33.00
Tottenham DH 17.91/21.00 -10.00
Tottenham DD 4.42/6.40 -10.00
Tottenham DA 9.73/16.50 -10.00


Value Priced Half time Match odds: -18.40
Sunderland Draw 1.92/2.16 11.60
West Brom Draw 2.14/2.62 -10.00
Portsmoth Draw 2.03/2.20 -10.00
Tottenham Draw 2.10/2.38 -10.00


ALL Half time scores: -63.20
Sunderland:
0-0 2.25/2.68 16.80
0-1 5.90/6.40 -10.00

West Brom
0-0 2.60/3.25 -10.00
1-0 8.16/12.50 -10.00

Portsmouth
0-0 2.47/2.92 -10.00
1-0 5.19/6.40 -10.00
2-0 21.80/25.00 -10.00

Tottenham
0-0 2.37/3.00 -10.00
1-0 3.48/3.90 -10.00


Half time 0-0: -13.20
Sunderland: 0-0 2.25/2.68 16.80
West Brom 0-0 2.60/3.25 -10.00
Portsmouth 0-0 2.47/2.92 -10.00
Tottenham 0-0 2.37/3.00 -10.00





Total to date:
Lowest Predicted Odds HTFT's: +285.52 17/38
Dutched HTFT's: +11.80 13/38
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +92.10 17/85
Value Priced Half time Match odds: +58.30 15/32
Half time scores: -301.00 5/26 Dropping this one now in favour of just the 0-0 ht bets
Half Time 0-0: +99.50 8/14
Total: +246.22

[crazybadger]

That's good to see that I must have it right too as we have almost identical results!

If you get chance could you try it on one of the later ones because I'm pretty sure thinking back that I had something wrong on the HA and AH odds initially.
Ahh that would make sense - I reviewed my spreadsheet and couldnt find a maths error and was looking for an error in my logic!



I am using first half scores and second half scores seperately as well now. Not sure whether that would make much difference in Rugby? Football of course is quite often a bit cagey in the first half especially if the away team have come for a draw so there can be a marked difference, would that translate to Rugby League?

I think the hardest thing is deciding which method to use to get the home and away rating. The one I've decided on seems fairly good so far but as to whether it is the best way, who knows?

I've updated the test sheet I've got now to only consider the F/A of the home team at home and vice versa for the Away team (so we'll get some different results from now on it seems).

When I translate to rugby league I'm going to have even another level of depth in my data. I'm going to get For and Against per half per home and away matches...so the formula to work out the "potential" of the teams will get pretty big but I think its for the best for higher scoring sports.


The other key thing I can't decide on yet is whether it's best to take whatever the lowest odds are and say ok this is the most likely outcome and bet that. Or whether to go with the 'value' odds where bf/bookie is much higher than the probable outcome. I'm leaning towards the value odds.
What about a 3rd option? You could take the lowest predicted odds in the market (as that means its the most likely to occur) BUT only when you get "value" for it as well. So you wouldnt end up betting on every market but could be a possibility.

Or another twist could be to start at the most likely outcomes (according to predictions) and work your way up until you find the first one that has "value" and then bet on that. Sort of a happy medium! :D


Hope you start a thread on the NRL, would be interesting to see how it gets on as you go along.

Oh and I adapted mine last week (manually, in a fairly lengthy process!) to go from 60-130 to test it on basketball!
Haha I will start work on the NRL sheet shortly (luckily the season is a month away) and will create a thread once I get it going. I'm still not sure how much money is in these kind of markets for NRL - obviously nowhere near EPL but I hope there is enough to get some value out of it.

Good luck and I will be keeping a close eye on how this pans out for you :thumbs

[MattR]

What about a 3rd option? You could take the lowest predicted odds in the market (as that means its the most likely to occur) BUT only when you get "value" for it as well. So you wouldnt end up betting on every market but could be a possibility.

Or another twist could be to start at the most likely outcomes (according to predictions) and work your way up until you find the first one that has "value" and then bet on that. Sort of a happy medium! :D

Actually, I quite like both those ideas. The 'most likely' one is doing well on this so far too so I think I'll add those two as seperate one's to go alongside.



Haha I will start work on the NRL sheet shortly (luckily the season is a month away) and will create a thread once I get it going. I'm still not sure how much money is in these kind of markets for NRL - obviously nowhere near EPL but I hope there is enough to get some value out of it.

Good luck and I will be keeping a close eye on how this pans out for you :thumbs

Good luck, look forward to seeing it. :)

The basketball one is proving a bit hit and miss win prediction wise, but one thing that is interesting so far is I have been adding the two teams ratings (ie pred score) together and recording whether it's under or over against the total match points line. Interestingly the unders so far have a strike rate of 50% with 20/40, however the overs to date are hitting 72% 15/21!

The ice hockey one is the reverse, the under/overs are hit and miss but the match odds and money lines are both showing profit so far.


A by prodcut of these stats for football and I don't know if you've thought to add to your NRL is that you can of course use it to get odds for 1+ goal 2+goals etc etc, so you could use it for the match points or even the handicap spread on rugby.

[MattR]

Having a slight revamp in the categories now after some good ideas from CB

The format will now bet

Most Likely - same as before and as it says, the most likely outcome according to the predictions

Value only Most Likely - as above but only if BF price is higher

Lowest odds that are value - working through the predicted odds from lowest to highest and the lowest one that is value

Value HT Match odds - as before

Value HT 0-0 score - as before



-----------------------------


Weds:

Most Likely
Chelsea HH 2.54/1.79
Man City HH 2.19/2.84
Liverpool AA 3.91/3.05
Bolton AA 4.28/8.20
Arsenal AA 3.85/4.60
West Ham HH 3.30/2.98


Value only Most Likely
Man City HH 2.19/2.84
Bolton AA 4.28/8.20
Arsenal AA 3.85/4.60


Lowest odds that are value
Chelsea DH 4.34/4.80
Man City HH 2.19/2.84
Wigan DD 3.94/5.60
Bolton AA 4.28/8.20
Arsenal AA 3.85/4.60
Hull AA 5.72/10.50


Value HT Match odds
Chelsea Draw 2.21/3.00
Man City Home 1.86/2.44
Wigan Home 4.31/6.00
Wigan Draw 1.98/2.20
Bolton Away 3.47/4.90
Everton Home 3.36/4.00



Value HT 0-0 score
Chelsea 2.72/3.75
Wigan 2.37/2.70



One interesting one that I noticed whilst doing this was HA in the West Ham v Hull game. The prediction came out at 27.97 and the odds are 65 on BF.

[MattR]

Most Likely -1.80
Chelsea HH 2.54/1.79 -10.00
Man City HH 2.19/2.84 +18.40
Liverpool AA 3.91/3.05 -10.00
Bolton AA 4.28/8.20 -10.00
Arsenal AA 3.85/4.60 -10.00
West Ham HH 3.30/2.98 +19.80



Value only Most Likely -1.60
Man City HH 2.19/2.84 +18.40
Bolton AA 4.28/8.20 -10.00 (almost!)
Arsenal AA 3.85/4.60 -10.00


Lowest odds that are value +16.40
Chelsea DH 4.34/4.80 +38.00
Man City HH 2.19/2.84 +18.40
Wigan DD 3.94/5.60 -10.00
Bolton AA 4.28/8.20 -10.00
Arsenal AA 3.85/4.60 -10.00
Hull AA 5.72/10.50 -10.00




Value HT Match odds +43.00
Chelsea Draw 2.21/3.00 +20.00
Man City Home 1.86/2.44 +14.44
Wigan Home 4.31/6.00 -10.00
Wigan Draw 1.98/2.20 -10.00
Bolton Away 3.47/4.90 +39.00
Everton Home 3.36/4.00 -10.00




Value HT 0-0 score +17.50
Chelsea 2.72/3.75 +27.50
Wigan 2.37/2.70 -10.00


Night's results:
Most Likely -1.80
Value only Most Likely -1.60
Lowest odds that are value +16.40
Value HT Match odds +43.00
Value HT 0-0 score +17.50



Pr/Lo on night: 73.50 :) If Bolton had hung on to their lead it could have been treble that, but it wasn't to be.


To Date:
Most Likely +283.72 19/44
Value only Most Likely -1.60 1/3
Lowest odds that are value +16.40 2/6
Value HT Match odds +101.30 18/38
Value HT 0-0 score +117.00 9/16

and stopped ones
Half time scores: -301.00 5/26
Dutched HTFT's: +11.80 13/38
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +92.10 17/85


Total Pr/Lo to date: +319.72 :)

[MattR]

One game today: Cambridge Utd v Oxford in the conference, blue square premier, whatever it's called these days.


I'm always a bit wary of making picks in leagues this low as a player or two out can make a huge difference at that level but there is an outstanding value bet in this game based purely on the season's stats. I will be having a fun sized bet on it but follow on your own decision, I'm not advocating doing it because I don't know enough about the teams.

The bet is Cambridge to win the first half. The stats are giving odds of 1.87 and it is 3.15 on betfair at this moment.

First half stats this season for these two (home only and away only respectively)
Cambridge 9 wins, 6 draws, 0 defeats F/A 11-1
Oxford 0 wins 8 draws 7 defeats, F/A 3-11

At 3.15 I think that is a huge price for Cambridge to be ahead at half time.

The alternative would be to lay Oxford at around 4.2-4.5 for the first half.


Thursday

Most Likely Cambridge HH 2.20/4.30


Value only Most Likely
Cambridge HH 2.20/4.30


Lowest odds that are value
Cambridge HH 2.20/4.30


Value HT Match odds
Cambridge Home 1.87/3.15


Value HT 0-0 score
Cambridge 0-0 2.82/2.96

[crazybadger]

Hey good night again last night! I ended up recording about 20 different types of bets to see how the predictions went. I got most the ones you did but I had a monster on value-based HT score - 5 out of 6 missed out but the correct one was 0 - 2 to Bolton @ $36!

Anyway another thought occurred to me today on this. So far the focus is on good value or high SR back bets but why not reverse it and do some Lay system too? There are heaps of options again with this:


laying the most likely outcome if under-value...would get lots of cheap prices especially in HT or FT markets so not much liability
laying any under-valued...lots of chance to win but higher prices (could combine with an upper limit of odds to bet on if too much?)
laying highest odds...way too much liability here I reckon


and heaps more....anyway just a thought. Something to keep in mind :thumbs

[MattR]

Nice one with Bolton! :) I have dropped the ht score one's mainly because I'm just posting what I'm actually betting now (although to small stakes at this stage). Those, like the value ht/ft one's too will I think make profit in the long term because sooner or later a HA/AH will come in at 60/1+ to add to the one's that keep it ticking along. Likewise with the HT Scores.

Some good ideas on the lays and it makes perfect sense to lay those under valued.

I've just added onto my sheet a first half goals <1.5/>1.5 as well.

Another thought I just had is that whatever the most likely HT/FT is then work with that on the half time score market. So if HH, rather than bet HH, bet 1-0 2-0 2-1 and Any. I think backing at the same stake on each would then capitalise on a 2-0 or Any as well. Same if DH/DD/DA then bet on 0-0 1-1 2-2 , 0-0 would cover the stake and 1-1 and especially a 2-2 would see a big win and so on with an AH/AD/AA. It also only means the first half part of it has to be right. So as with Bolton last night, the AA fell down 3 minutes from the end but the 0-2 ht came in.

[MattR]

And of course Oxford were 1-0 up at half time! :rolleyes:
Thursday

Most Likely Cambridge HH 2.20/4.30 -10


Value only Most Likely
Cambridge HH 2.20/4.30 -10


Lowest odds that are value
Cambridge HH 2.20/4.30 -10


Value HT Match odds
Cambridge Home 1.87/3.15 -10


Value HT 0-0 score
Cambridge 0-0 2.82/2.96 -10

To Date:
Most Likely +273.72 19/45
Value only Most Likely -11.60 1/4
Lowest odds that are value +6.40 2/7
Value HT Match odds +91.30 18/39
Value HT 0-0 score +107.00 9/17
and stopped ones
Half time scores: -301.00 5/26
Dutched HTFT's: +11.80 13/38
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +92.10 17/85


Total Pr/Lo to date: +269.72



Saturday Premier:

Most Likely
Stoke DD 4.14/5.70
Arsenal HH 4.14/2.42
Aston Villa HH 3.75/3.00
Bolton HH 4.21/5.30
Fulham HH 2.50/3.40
Hull HH 3.12/3.90
Blackburn AA 4.34/5.60
Man Utd HH 2.73/2.18

Value only Most Likely
Stoke DD 4.14/5.70
Bolton HH 4.21/5.30
Fulham HH 2.50/3.40
Hull HH 3.12/3.90
Blackburn AA 4.34/5.60


Lowest odds that are value
Stoke DD 4.14/5.70
Arsenal DD 4.63/7.00
Wigan AA 5.23/10.50
Bolton HH 4.21/5.30
Fulham HH 2.50/3.40
Hull HH 3.12/3.9
Blackburn AA 4.34/5.60
Man Utd DD 3.43/7.20

Value HT Match odds
Stoke Draw 2.03/2.24
Arsenal Draw 2.15/2.50
West Ham Away 4.22/7.20
Wigan Away 3.85/5.70
Fulham Home 2.08/2.78
Hull Home 2.48/3.00
Man Utd Draw 1.85/2.52

Value HT 0-0 score
Stoke 0-0 2.47/3.00
Arsenal 0-0 2.72/3.25
Middlesboro 0-0 2.72/2.96
Man Utd 0-0 2.04/3.05

[MattR]

A good day with profit in all 5 categories :)

Saturday Premier:

Most Likely +28.80 3/7
Stoke DD 4.14/5.70 -10.00
Arsenal HH 4.14/2.42 -10.00
Aston Villa HH 3.75/3.00 -10.00
Bolton HH 4.21/5.30 +43.00
Fulham HH 2.50/3.40 +24.00
Hull HH 3.12/3.90 -10.00
Blackburn AA 4.34/5.60 -10.00
Man Utd HH 2.73/2.18 +11.80

Value only Most Likely +37.80 2/8
Stoke DD 4.14/5.70 -10.00
Bolton HH 4.21/5.30 +43.80
Fulham HH 2.50/3.40 +24.00
Hull HH 3.12/3.90 -10.00
Blackburn AA 4.34/5.60 -10.00

Lowest odds that are value +77.00 3/8
Stoke DD 4.14/5.70 -10.00
Arsenal DD 4.63/7.00 +60.00
Wigan AA 5.23/10.50 -10.00
Bolton HH 4.21/5.30 +43.00
Fulham HH 2.50/3.40 +24.00
Hull HH 3.12/3.9 -10.00
Blackburn AA 4.34/5.60 -10.00
Man Utd DD 3.43/7.20 -10.00

Value HT Match odds +12.80 3/7
Stoke Draw 2.03/2.24 -10.00
Arsenal Draw 2.15/2.50 +15.00
West Ham Away 4.22/7.20 -10.00
Wigan Away 3.85/5.70 -10.00
Fulham Home 2.08/2.78 +17.80
Hull Home 2.48/3.00 +20.00
Man Utd Draw 1.85/2.52 -10.00

Value HT 0-0 score +21.85 2/4
Stoke 0-0 2.47/3.00 -10.00
Arsenal 0-0 2.72/3.25 +22.25
Middlesboro 0-0 2.72/2.96 +19.60
Man Utd 0-0 2.04/3.05 -10.00



Most Likely +28.80 3/7
Value only Most Likely +37.80 2/8
Lowest odds that are value +77.00 3/8
Value HT Match odds +12.80 3/7
Value HT 0-0 score +21.85 2/4

Days Pr/Lo: +178.25

To Date:
Most Likely +302.52 22/52
Value only Most Likely +26.20 3/12
Lowest odds that are value +83.40 5/15
Value HT Match odds +104.10 21/46
Value HT 0-0 score +128.85 11/21
and stopped ones
Half time scores: -301.00 5/26
Dutched HTFT's: +11.80 13/38
Stand Out Value HTFT's: +92.10 17/85


Total Pr/Lo to date: +447.97 :)

[MattR]

Sunday: Had some time so I've done serie A to see how it will do on there

Most Likely
Newcastle HH 3.30/4.80
Chelsea AA 3.34/6.00
c

Value only Most Likely
Newcastle HH 3.30/4.80
Chelsea AA 3.34/6.00
Atalanta HH 2.91/3.35
Fiorentina AA 3.36/4.00
Chievo DD 3.26/5.00
Genoa HH 2.46/3.40
Reggina 3.61/12.50
Siena 2.78/3.50

Lowest odds that are value
Newcastle HH 3.30/4.80
Chelsea AA 3.34/6.00
Atalanta HH 2.91/3.35
Fiorentina AA 3.36/4.00
Chievo DD 3.26/5.00
Genoa HH 2.46/3.40
Inter DH 4.29/4.90
Reggina 3.61/12.50
Siena 2.78/3.50

Value HT Match odds
Newcastle Home 2.56/3.40
Chelsea Away 2.64/4.10
Atalanta Draw 1.74/2.16
Fiorentina Away 2.50/3.00
Chievo Home 3.36/4.30
Chievo Draw 1.80/2.06
Genoa Home 2.39/2.72
Inter Draw 2.23/3.05
Torino Away 7.04/12.50
Reggina Home 2.88/6.60
Siena Home 2.50/2.80

Value HT 0-0 score
Atalanta 1.89/2.78
Chievo 2.01/2.62
Genoa 2.72/2.96
Inter 2.72/3.50
Siena 2.46/2.58