Win2Win Racing
2nd January 2009, 12:31
Shrewd trainers can get their horses to run off the 'wrong' mark - a strategy that can prove lucrative for backers, writes Wayne Bailey...
To the compete novice, handicaps are arguably the most difficult race type to figure out, and I still remember Grand National day 1988 as my late father tried his best to explain the concept to me; an enthusiastic seven-year-old with a pound note in my hand ready to pick a horse! In the end, he put it as simply as this: "Think of you and your friends having a race when cycling home from school. The guy with the best and fastest bike is obviously going to win. Therefore, if you put extra schoolbooks in his bag, the rest of you will have a chance too."
Unfortunately, I didn't pick Rhyme 'N' Reason that year - I had to wait until 1990 before finding Grand National glory with an each-way bet on Mr Frisk, a horse I probably picked because the trainer's name was Bailey!
OK, so the handicapping system is not quite as simple as above, but once one understands the concept, you can begin to tackle the races and try find the all important winners. If you're unfamiliar with how handicapping works, a site named UK Horse Racing have explained it very well here (http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/HandicappingExplained.asp).
When watching a horse running twice in a short space of time last month, I was reminded of an old strategy that allows horses to run off a lower mark than they should, and wondered if it still proved profitable. The idea is quite simple really - when a horse wins a race, his official rating will usually be raised by a few pounds. But the handicappers only review the official ratings on a weekly basis, so straight after the win, certain trainers will quickly enter their horse in another handicap before his official rating has been reviewed - and therefore the horse can run off its old mark.
When this happens, the horse will carry a penalty. But the penalty is mandatory and is often very lenient compared to what the handicapper will add when he gets his hands on him. So the strategy is fairly straightforward - back horses that won last time out and are making a quick return to a handicap race.
The main problem with back-testing this, was trying to set a limit on how quick the horse's return to the racecourse should be. I finally settled on 1-3 days as I figured that the handicapper wouldn't have caught up with most of those horses yet.
While it is possible that some of the horses will have been given their revised mark within that period, that figure is not too big as most trainers don't bother with a quick handicap return unless they've a weight advantage. In the UK, the handicappers issue the new official ratings on Tuesdays, so watch out for what day the trainer enters the horse again.
I only focused on National Hunt racing since the flat season is still a number of months away. So then, the rules (for want of a better word) are:
• Race is a National Hunt handicap.
• Horse last ran 1-3 days ago, and won that race.
Had you backed each horse matching the above criteria since 2003, you would have had 80 winners from 202 bets (39.6%) and shown a profit of £663 to £10 stakes. I broke down the data by year to check for consistency, and all years showed a reasonable profit and strike-rate.
Interestingly, had you backed the horses each-way, you would show a profit of £878 to £10 stakes with 64% of horses placing. I'm not sure if the powers that be at Betfair have any plans to make place SPs widely accessible, but I wish they would as I'd love to test this out on Betfair's win and place markets and I'm fairly certain it would prove more lucrative than old style each-way betting. If anyone who looks after such matters is reading, please take note!
Something else that stood out was that hurdlers performed far better, winning nearly 44% of races compared to the chasers at just under 33%. If any readers have a theory as to why, make a post below. Of course, the usual health warnings apply and just because something was profitable in the past does not mean it will be forever - but I'm confident of getting a run for my money on this and will report back periodically on progress.
It's not rocket science, but it's a basic strategy that works and hopefully will continue to do so for a while yet. As my late father pointed out to me as a kid, sometimes the simple way of looking at things is the best way!
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/horse-racing-betting-strategy-beating-the-handicapper-020109.html)
To the compete novice, handicaps are arguably the most difficult race type to figure out, and I still remember Grand National day 1988 as my late father tried his best to explain the concept to me; an enthusiastic seven-year-old with a pound note in my hand ready to pick a horse! In the end, he put it as simply as this: "Think of you and your friends having a race when cycling home from school. The guy with the best and fastest bike is obviously going to win. Therefore, if you put extra schoolbooks in his bag, the rest of you will have a chance too."
Unfortunately, I didn't pick Rhyme 'N' Reason that year - I had to wait until 1990 before finding Grand National glory with an each-way bet on Mr Frisk, a horse I probably picked because the trainer's name was Bailey!
OK, so the handicapping system is not quite as simple as above, but once one understands the concept, you can begin to tackle the races and try find the all important winners. If you're unfamiliar with how handicapping works, a site named UK Horse Racing have explained it very well here (http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/HandicappingExplained.asp).
When watching a horse running twice in a short space of time last month, I was reminded of an old strategy that allows horses to run off a lower mark than they should, and wondered if it still proved profitable. The idea is quite simple really - when a horse wins a race, his official rating will usually be raised by a few pounds. But the handicappers only review the official ratings on a weekly basis, so straight after the win, certain trainers will quickly enter their horse in another handicap before his official rating has been reviewed - and therefore the horse can run off its old mark.
When this happens, the horse will carry a penalty. But the penalty is mandatory and is often very lenient compared to what the handicapper will add when he gets his hands on him. So the strategy is fairly straightforward - back horses that won last time out and are making a quick return to a handicap race.
The main problem with back-testing this, was trying to set a limit on how quick the horse's return to the racecourse should be. I finally settled on 1-3 days as I figured that the handicapper wouldn't have caught up with most of those horses yet.
While it is possible that some of the horses will have been given their revised mark within that period, that figure is not too big as most trainers don't bother with a quick handicap return unless they've a weight advantage. In the UK, the handicappers issue the new official ratings on Tuesdays, so watch out for what day the trainer enters the horse again.
I only focused on National Hunt racing since the flat season is still a number of months away. So then, the rules (for want of a better word) are:
• Race is a National Hunt handicap.
• Horse last ran 1-3 days ago, and won that race.
Had you backed each horse matching the above criteria since 2003, you would have had 80 winners from 202 bets (39.6%) and shown a profit of £663 to £10 stakes. I broke down the data by year to check for consistency, and all years showed a reasonable profit and strike-rate.
Interestingly, had you backed the horses each-way, you would show a profit of £878 to £10 stakes with 64% of horses placing. I'm not sure if the powers that be at Betfair have any plans to make place SPs widely accessible, but I wish they would as I'd love to test this out on Betfair's win and place markets and I'm fairly certain it would prove more lucrative than old style each-way betting. If anyone who looks after such matters is reading, please take note!
Something else that stood out was that hurdlers performed far better, winning nearly 44% of races compared to the chasers at just under 33%. If any readers have a theory as to why, make a post below. Of course, the usual health warnings apply and just because something was profitable in the past does not mean it will be forever - but I'm confident of getting a run for my money on this and will report back periodically on progress.
It's not rocket science, but it's a basic strategy that works and hopefully will continue to do so for a while yet. As my late father pointed out to me as a kid, sometimes the simple way of looking at things is the best way!
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/horse-racing-betting-strategy-beating-the-handicapper-020109.html)