Win2Win Racing
9th January 2009, 17:03
Richard Walker thinks there may be a slight over-reaction in price to Aston Villa's recent form going into the Midlands derby against West Brom. And with injuries to key players Martin Laursen and Carlos Cuellar and further injury doubts over Ashley Young and Gareth Barry, a lay of the home side is the call....
If we're to use Betfair layers as a guide, I think it's about time we doffed our collective caps in the direction of Aston Villa.
When you're [1.43] to back in the Match Odds to win a Premier League fixture, you might not yet be 'Big Four' but you've got to be listed as a serious contender. Right now, there's not too many trying to make hay out of a failure for Martin O'Neill's side.
Tony Mowbray's Albion are [10.0] to succeed at Villa Park and, while I can't have anything more than a tiny percentage stake on that outcome, I've got one of those weird hunches that I simply have to get involved myself. Unlikely you'll join me, but I'll be backing The Draw in this one - a [4.7] chance - with a tiny cover on the down-trodden Baggies at that fancy price.
Adding to the positives for them is the likely absence of key Villa duo Gareth Barry and/or Ashley Young, both of whom are struggling to be back for this West Midlands clash. Centre-half Martin Laursen and right-back Carlos Cuellar are definitely out so, without the embarrassment of riches of the other top sides, they may be a little less convincing or dominating than they may have expected.
Mowbray has his own injury concerns but they're not in areas likely to impact too negatively on his game-plan for a game where he'll see a point as a great result.
West Brom have lost just once in their last four matches, a confidence-building line they'll be clinging to no doubt, but their last points away from The Hawthorns came way back at Middlesbrough in September.
This is a local enough derby for form to take just a little bit of a back seat so I'm happy to forgive them their generally dismal away form. But that notwithstanding, I think Mowbray will come with a plan to squeeze the game down, squash the room out wide Villa crave and sit in deep to protect themselves against the hosts' scintillating attacking pace.
It's with this in mind that I also recommend siding with Under 2.5 goals, around [2.16] to support. Overs is the understandable favourite at [1.86] but I can see the visitors turning this into something akin to trench warfare. And I have to say that the [4.5] about Under 1.5 goals also catches my eye.
A goalless draw is way out there at [15.5] but it certainly enters my thoughts for this game. If you're totally opposed to an idea of Villa not winning, then prices like [7.2] for 2-0 or [13.0] about 3-1 to the home side may very well appeal to you.
The Half-Time/Full-Time market is its usual mix of massive variables. Draw/Draw is where I'd be heading for this one, available at [7.8 to back, however clearly Villa/Villa [2.18] is proving a lot more popular with bettors. I always reckon it's worth covering at least two options in this market so, accepting I may well get the draw call wrong, my cover - which might be your main pick - is Draw/Villa, priced at [4.9].
The likes of Gabby Agbonlahor will be among the shorter prices in the goals options. He'll be roughly [3.0] To Score at any time, and probably more like [7.5] to notch first in the game. It'd be very hard to recommend any Albion players, save to say that Roman Bednar might be worth considering as their penalty-taker who does also get involved at free-kicks.
I'm half-expecting one of those sleepy Saturday lunch-time matches here, but also driven by a won't-be-beaten mentality from the relegation-troubled visitors.
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/midlands-derby-aston-villa-v-west-brom-090109.html)
If we're to use Betfair layers as a guide, I think it's about time we doffed our collective caps in the direction of Aston Villa.
When you're [1.43] to back in the Match Odds to win a Premier League fixture, you might not yet be 'Big Four' but you've got to be listed as a serious contender. Right now, there's not too many trying to make hay out of a failure for Martin O'Neill's side.
Tony Mowbray's Albion are [10.0] to succeed at Villa Park and, while I can't have anything more than a tiny percentage stake on that outcome, I've got one of those weird hunches that I simply have to get involved myself. Unlikely you'll join me, but I'll be backing The Draw in this one - a [4.7] chance - with a tiny cover on the down-trodden Baggies at that fancy price.
Adding to the positives for them is the likely absence of key Villa duo Gareth Barry and/or Ashley Young, both of whom are struggling to be back for this West Midlands clash. Centre-half Martin Laursen and right-back Carlos Cuellar are definitely out so, without the embarrassment of riches of the other top sides, they may be a little less convincing or dominating than they may have expected.
Mowbray has his own injury concerns but they're not in areas likely to impact too negatively on his game-plan for a game where he'll see a point as a great result.
West Brom have lost just once in their last four matches, a confidence-building line they'll be clinging to no doubt, but their last points away from The Hawthorns came way back at Middlesbrough in September.
This is a local enough derby for form to take just a little bit of a back seat so I'm happy to forgive them their generally dismal away form. But that notwithstanding, I think Mowbray will come with a plan to squeeze the game down, squash the room out wide Villa crave and sit in deep to protect themselves against the hosts' scintillating attacking pace.
It's with this in mind that I also recommend siding with Under 2.5 goals, around [2.16] to support. Overs is the understandable favourite at [1.86] but I can see the visitors turning this into something akin to trench warfare. And I have to say that the [4.5] about Under 1.5 goals also catches my eye.
A goalless draw is way out there at [15.5] but it certainly enters my thoughts for this game. If you're totally opposed to an idea of Villa not winning, then prices like [7.2] for 2-0 or [13.0] about 3-1 to the home side may very well appeal to you.
The Half-Time/Full-Time market is its usual mix of massive variables. Draw/Draw is where I'd be heading for this one, available at [7.8 to back, however clearly Villa/Villa [2.18] is proving a lot more popular with bettors. I always reckon it's worth covering at least two options in this market so, accepting I may well get the draw call wrong, my cover - which might be your main pick - is Draw/Villa, priced at [4.9].
The likes of Gabby Agbonlahor will be among the shorter prices in the goals options. He'll be roughly [3.0] To Score at any time, and probably more like [7.5] to notch first in the game. It'd be very hard to recommend any Albion players, save to say that Roman Bednar might be worth considering as their penalty-taker who does also get involved at free-kicks.
I'm half-expecting one of those sleepy Saturday lunch-time matches here, but also driven by a won't-be-beaten mentality from the relegation-troubled visitors.
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/midlands-derby-aston-villa-v-west-brom-090109.html)