Win2Win Racing
10th January 2009, 17:51
There's a seismic clash looming between Manchester United and Chelsea, so help navigate your way through the betting waters with Richard Walker's full-length preview.
Of all the 'Big Four' clashes - and with due deference to the history between Liverpool and Manchester United - it would seem that the meeting of United and Chelsea is now the Premier League's hottest ticket.
There's so much to consider when sharpening your pencil to make some notes before you plunge in on the Betfair markets; and yet, that said, at lot of my best betting is done on hunch and intuition. And it's been going well lately, but the subtleties and complexities around this match make it just a little more difficult to be as instinctive as I'd like.
Regular readers will know I'm not driven too much by stats and trends. Fair play to those who are - I'm just not of a similar ilk. However it would be ignorant not to point out some salient facts ahead of this 4pm Sky Sports clash on Sunday afternoon.
For example - and this back bet has paid its way for us lately - Manchester United's clean sheet keeping has now extended to seven consecutive Premier League matches. The last time they conceded at all was to Arsenal at The Emirates over 11 on-pitch hours ago in early November. Chelsea, meanwhile, blotted their copybook by letting two in at Fulham (without John Terry) last time away from Stamford Bridge, but before that had conceded just one goal in nine other fixtures on their travels.
Perhaps the simplest and most interesting fact is that United are unbeaten at home and Chelsea are undefeated on the road. The phrase "something's got to give" will no doubt be trotted out pre-match by presenter, pundit or player, yet it doesn't have to. It could be a draw. In fact, I think it might well be a draw. In fact, the massed layers or Betfairland also think it could be a draw, since the [3.25] to back in the Match Odds about level pegging are as short as I've seen for any top-flight fixture this term.
The home team are [2.3] to back with Chelsea at [3.8]. If you agree, it'll be a case of which colour your draw is shaded. No one's ever that certain of a stalemate so I suppose you could take the Lay option against the side you reckon definitely won't win.
There's significant good news for both teams in terms of selection. Key defenders Rio Ferdinand (groin injury) and Patrice Evra (suspension) are back after each missing four games, leaving only Owen Hargreaves and Wes Brown out of the equation for Sir Alex Ferguson. Ferdinand will bring up 200 Premier League appearances for United should he, as expected, resume duties alongside Nemanja Vidic at the heart of the Red Devils' defence.
Felipe Scolari will be equally pleased that John Terry's three-match ban has been served. That surely is key to the visitor's hopes. Michael Ballack also returns from suspension so Florent Malouda is the only certain absentee.
The almost symmetrical team news is my main thinking behind siding with a draw. With both sides at nearly full strength, there will be very few weaknesses to expose on either side. Cristiano Ronaldo is an interesting player to consider when weighing up who's got what at their disposal. Always portrayed as a match-winner, he figures much less against 'Big Four' opposition and, up against Portuguese full-back Jose Bosingwa - who knows him well - or Ashley Cole, he rarely has things his own way against the Blues.
It's that sort of attritional battle that might just lead to a goalless draw or perhaps a 1-1 result. The former (not a scoreline with a great track record in this fixture, surprisingly) is priced at [9.0] to back while the latter is a [6.8] chance. If you're a partisan backer, logging on to show your allegiance, 1-0 United at [7.8] and 2-1 Chelsea at [15.0] are examples of odds for scorelines away from stalemate scenarios.
With so much in the balance, perhaps something like Booking Odds might be a section worth an experiment, if you're new to searching deeper than the main markets. Here, with yellow cards worth two points and red cards five, it's [3.4] to support a spread of 6-8 points for the match as a whole. It's no surprise to see Howard Webb in charge for this one and, while he's not card-happy, he's also not shy to stamp his authority with an early caution or two if he deems it appropriate. Most bettors are predicting a feisty encounter with [1.41] the slimline price to back for 9 points and above. It's difficult to see past that so, for a game when so much else is in the balance, you might want to step in at the sort of price normally reserved for the favourites of lop-sided fixtures.
It takes big characters to turn games such as this. And, much as there's a dislikeable thread or two about his behaviour, it's hard to deny Wayne Rooney's work ethic or hunger for goals. Whether you play him at [3.2] To Score or as a [9.0] shot First Goalscorer, he would be my stand-out selection for a cast of many all laying claim to having goals in their veins. In the interests of fairness, his equivalent - someone like Nicolas Anelka - is [3.6] To Score and [10.5] to notch first.
Draw/Draw's is priced at [5.0] to back in the Half-Time/Full-Time list. However United/United is the [4.2] jolly here. Visiting fans suspecting their side might be quickly out of the traps and hold on can get [7.0] on a Chelsea/Chelsea split. Personally, I'll be backing both United/Draw [17.0] and Chelsea/Draw [16.5] as I feel, in these matches, the two teams tend to have a half of dominance apiece.
It's been billed as the most eagerly-anticipated match of the season so far...that is, until the next one. Let us all hope for a successful game's punting and that, win or lose, the entertainment lives up to its pre-match hype.
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/premier-league-betting-manchester-united-v-chelsea-100109.html)
Of all the 'Big Four' clashes - and with due deference to the history between Liverpool and Manchester United - it would seem that the meeting of United and Chelsea is now the Premier League's hottest ticket.
There's so much to consider when sharpening your pencil to make some notes before you plunge in on the Betfair markets; and yet, that said, at lot of my best betting is done on hunch and intuition. And it's been going well lately, but the subtleties and complexities around this match make it just a little more difficult to be as instinctive as I'd like.
Regular readers will know I'm not driven too much by stats and trends. Fair play to those who are - I'm just not of a similar ilk. However it would be ignorant not to point out some salient facts ahead of this 4pm Sky Sports clash on Sunday afternoon.
For example - and this back bet has paid its way for us lately - Manchester United's clean sheet keeping has now extended to seven consecutive Premier League matches. The last time they conceded at all was to Arsenal at The Emirates over 11 on-pitch hours ago in early November. Chelsea, meanwhile, blotted their copybook by letting two in at Fulham (without John Terry) last time away from Stamford Bridge, but before that had conceded just one goal in nine other fixtures on their travels.
Perhaps the simplest and most interesting fact is that United are unbeaten at home and Chelsea are undefeated on the road. The phrase "something's got to give" will no doubt be trotted out pre-match by presenter, pundit or player, yet it doesn't have to. It could be a draw. In fact, I think it might well be a draw. In fact, the massed layers or Betfairland also think it could be a draw, since the [3.25] to back in the Match Odds about level pegging are as short as I've seen for any top-flight fixture this term.
The home team are [2.3] to back with Chelsea at [3.8]. If you agree, it'll be a case of which colour your draw is shaded. No one's ever that certain of a stalemate so I suppose you could take the Lay option against the side you reckon definitely won't win.
There's significant good news for both teams in terms of selection. Key defenders Rio Ferdinand (groin injury) and Patrice Evra (suspension) are back after each missing four games, leaving only Owen Hargreaves and Wes Brown out of the equation for Sir Alex Ferguson. Ferdinand will bring up 200 Premier League appearances for United should he, as expected, resume duties alongside Nemanja Vidic at the heart of the Red Devils' defence.
Felipe Scolari will be equally pleased that John Terry's three-match ban has been served. That surely is key to the visitor's hopes. Michael Ballack also returns from suspension so Florent Malouda is the only certain absentee.
The almost symmetrical team news is my main thinking behind siding with a draw. With both sides at nearly full strength, there will be very few weaknesses to expose on either side. Cristiano Ronaldo is an interesting player to consider when weighing up who's got what at their disposal. Always portrayed as a match-winner, he figures much less against 'Big Four' opposition and, up against Portuguese full-back Jose Bosingwa - who knows him well - or Ashley Cole, he rarely has things his own way against the Blues.
It's that sort of attritional battle that might just lead to a goalless draw or perhaps a 1-1 result. The former (not a scoreline with a great track record in this fixture, surprisingly) is priced at [9.0] to back while the latter is a [6.8] chance. If you're a partisan backer, logging on to show your allegiance, 1-0 United at [7.8] and 2-1 Chelsea at [15.0] are examples of odds for scorelines away from stalemate scenarios.
With so much in the balance, perhaps something like Booking Odds might be a section worth an experiment, if you're new to searching deeper than the main markets. Here, with yellow cards worth two points and red cards five, it's [3.4] to support a spread of 6-8 points for the match as a whole. It's no surprise to see Howard Webb in charge for this one and, while he's not card-happy, he's also not shy to stamp his authority with an early caution or two if he deems it appropriate. Most bettors are predicting a feisty encounter with [1.41] the slimline price to back for 9 points and above. It's difficult to see past that so, for a game when so much else is in the balance, you might want to step in at the sort of price normally reserved for the favourites of lop-sided fixtures.
It takes big characters to turn games such as this. And, much as there's a dislikeable thread or two about his behaviour, it's hard to deny Wayne Rooney's work ethic or hunger for goals. Whether you play him at [3.2] To Score or as a [9.0] shot First Goalscorer, he would be my stand-out selection for a cast of many all laying claim to having goals in their veins. In the interests of fairness, his equivalent - someone like Nicolas Anelka - is [3.6] To Score and [10.5] to notch first.
Draw/Draw's is priced at [5.0] to back in the Half-Time/Full-Time list. However United/United is the [4.2] jolly here. Visiting fans suspecting their side might be quickly out of the traps and hold on can get [7.0] on a Chelsea/Chelsea split. Personally, I'll be backing both United/Draw [17.0] and Chelsea/Draw [16.5] as I feel, in these matches, the two teams tend to have a half of dominance apiece.
It's been billed as the most eagerly-anticipated match of the season so far...that is, until the next one. Let us all hope for a successful game's punting and that, win or lose, the entertainment lives up to its pre-match hype.
More... (http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/premier-league-betting-manchester-united-v-chelsea-100109.html)