Home Wins

[MattR]

Testing this for real starting today (at small £2 stakes) so thought I might as well post it here to keep me disciplined with it. The idea is based around using the goals for/aga for teams and getting a set of match odds for a game from that. The idea I'm testing is to use all those home teams who's odds are above 2.00 on betfair that come out on my spreadsheet as being lower odds than that, ie a supposed value bet. The predicted odds must be under 4.00

Here's todays: first odds are the predicted odds, second are the actual odds taken. It was in a table but it came out like this when posted


Haceteppe 2.77 2.98
Spartak Varna 3.27 15.00
FC Lviv 2.08 2.88
Bielefeld 2.62 3.85
Dortmund 1.99 3.00
Stuttgart 2.03 2.24
Austria Karnten 2.36 3.55
Chernomorets B 2.62 3.20
Marilia Prib 2.30 3.05
Sparta Rotterdam 1.81 2.20
Charlton 2.54 2.74
Nottm F 3.16 3.60
Plymouth 2.55 3.00
Sheff Wed 2.17 2.76
C Palace 2.61 3.25
Bristol R 2.33 2.98
Crewe 2.63 3.70
Hartlepool 2.31 3.15
Oldham 1.93 2.24
Accrington 2.89 3.05
Darlington 1.67 2.30
Grimsby 2.33 3.60
Wycomeb 2.18 2.50
Fulham 2.93 10.00
Stoke 1.81 2.34
Newcastle 3.36 5.90
Le Havre 3.21 6.40
Roma 2.54 3.35
Avellino 2.63 2.92
Piacenza 2.17 2.84
Triestina 2.54 3.55
Gaz Metan 3.02 4.70
Panduuri 2.32 2.62
Aarau 1.85 2.34

[MattR]

Haceteppe 2.77 2.98 -2.00
Spartak Varna 3.27 15.00 -2.00
FC Lviv 2.08 2.88 -2.00
Bielefeld 2.62 3.85 -2.00
Dortmund 1.99 3.00 +3.83
Stuttgart 2.03 2.24 +2.38
Austria Karnten 2.36 3.55 -2.00
Chernomorets B 2.62 3.20 -2.00
Marilia Prib 2.30 3.05 +3.93
Sparta Rotterdam 1.81 2.20 +2.30
Charlton 2.54 2.74 -2.00
Nottm F 3.16 3.60 -2.00
Plymouth 2.55 3.00 -2.00
Sheff Wed 2.17 2.76 -2.00
C Palace 2.61 3.25 -2.00
Bristol R 2.33 2.98 -2.00
Crewe 2.63 3.70 -2.00
Hartlepool 2.31 3.15 -2.00
Oldham 1.93 2.24 -2.00
Accrington 2.89 3.05 +3.93
Darlington 1.67 2.30 +2.49
Grimsby 2.33 3.60 +4.98
Wycombe 2.18 2.50 -2.00
Fulham 2.93 10.00 +17.24
Stoke 1.81 2.34 +2.57
Newcastle 3.36 5.90 -2.00
Le Havre 3.21 6.40 -2.00
Roma 2.54 3.35 -2.00
Avellino 2.63 2.92 +3.68
Piacenza 2.17 2.84 +3.53
Triestina 2.54 3.55 -2.00
Gaz Metan 3.02 4.70 +7.09
Panduuri 2.32 2.62 -2.00
Aarau 1.85 2.34 +2.57


Results
13/34 38.20%
Bank +18.52

[bigcumba]

Nifty start there Matt, well done! :thumbs

[mathare]

You sure about all those numbers Matt? There's one or two stick out for me as being suspect.

How can Marilia Prib @ 3.05 give you +3.93 but Dortmund @ 3.00 be +3.30? I suspect that Dortmund one is wrong and you should have a greater profit, no?

[MattR]

Thanks BigC.


Good spot Mat, it should be £3.83 profit on Dortmund :thumbs Figures amended

[MattR]

Sunday

Team/Pred/Actual

Aust Vienna 2.06 3.00
Charleroi 3.11 6.00
Vihren 3.50 8.80
Ceske Budjovice 2.17 2.50
Kladno 2.89 3.15
Brno 1.83 2.10
Sonderjyske 3.15 3.30
Breda 2.69 4.00
Volendam 2.60 2.92
Lorient 2.16 2.62
Toulouse 2.16 2.62
Schalke 1.79 2.14
Ingolstadt 2.11 4.00
RW Ahlen 2.04 3.40
Asteras T 2.58 4.70
Panionios 3.34 4.80
Panserraikos 2.57 3.10
Diosgyori 1.83 2.22
Torino 2.15 2.54
Napoli 2.45 3.70
CS Otepeni 4.00 4.70
Gloria Buzau 5.35 8.34
Uni Craiova 2.67 2.86
Dundee U 3.16 6.00
Deportivo 2.01 2.20
Numancia 2.07 2.58
Osasuna 1.93 2.24
Santander 2.24 2.36
Mallorca 2.45 3.25

[MattR]

Aust Vienna 2.06 3.00 -2.00
Charleroi 3.11 6.00 +9.58
Vihren 3.50 8.80 -2.00
Ceske Budjovice 2.17 2.50 -2.00
Kladno 2.89 3.15 -2.00
Brno 1.83 2.10 -2.00
Sonderjyske 3.15 3.30 -2.00
Breda 2.69 4.00 -2.00
Volendam 2.60 2.92 -2.00
Lorient 2.16 2.62 +3.10
Toulouse 2.16 2.62 +3.10
Schalke 1.79 2.14 -2.00
Ingolstadt 2.11 4.00 -2.00
RW Ahlen 2.04 3.40 -2.00
Asteras T 2.58 4.70 -2.00
Panionios 3.34 4.80 -2.00
Panserraikos 2.57 3.10 -2.00
Diosgyori 1.83 2.22 +2.34
Torino 2.15 2.54 -2.00
Napoli 2.45 3.70 -2.00
CS Otepeni 4.00 4.70 -2.00
Gloria Buzau 5.35 8.34 -2.00
Uni Craiova 2.67 2.86 +3.56
Dundee U 3.16 6.00 -2.00
Deportivo 2.01 2.20 -2.00
Numancia 2.07 2.58 +3.03
Osasuna 1.93 2.24 +2.38
Santander 2.24 2.36 -2.00
Mallorca 2.45 3.25 +4.31


A loss on the day, a bit unlucky as 8 games were draws including Dundee Utd at 6.00
and a 4.70.

Day
8/29
Pr/Lo -10.79

To Date
21/63 33.33%
Bank +7.73

[crazybadger]

Nice concept matt. I think there is real potential there.

I see you're doing quite a few different competitions there. From your testing did you find that the results/predictions had roughly the same accuracy across the different leauges? I dont have enough matches to make a definite statement but I've found some theories are very accurate in EPL but lose heaps in the Serie A and vice versa.

[MattR]

It's a difficult one to gauge CB, like you I don't really have enough data to make any concrete decisions about that. I think that certainly within England, from the Championship down it seems pretty erratic but then they seem to be leagues where anyone can beat anyone else, especially the Championship. Other than that though I've not really seen any other obvious trends as yet but the data set is small at this stage. As I'm doing small stakes I decided to just do all the leagues (as long as the season is 10 games in) to get as much data as I can.

Some of the Eastern European odds where you have one of the 'big' teams away seem to have odds that are way over where the prediction is showing. There's one today, Teplice v Sparta Prague. Teplice have a good home record 7-1-2 16-4, Sparta away record is 5-1-4 15-13 yet Teplice are 3.10. They come out at 2.05 on my stats. Sure they may not win, but certainly are capable of it and the odds available are double the suggested odds so long term I am hopeful these sort of ones will reap dividends.

I'm hoping it can produce aroun 30-40% winners then with the odd big win thrown in (like Fulham beating Man U) it should make profit. We'll see!

As I get more data I may be able to add some filters in but for now I just want to take a blanket approach to get as much live data as possible.

Did you do your correct scores over the weekend? Any nice winners?

[MattR]

Monday


Kastoria 2.52 7.20
Botev Plovdiv 2.34 11.50
Teplice 2.05 3.05
Treviso 1.94 2.76
Adanspor 2.99 3.55
Freiburg 1.68 2.12
Dagenham 2.36 2.88
Wrexham 1.97 2.58
Salernitana 2.58 3.60

[MattR]

Kastoria 2.52 7.20 -2.00
Botev Plovdiv 2.34 11.50 -2.00
Teplice 2.05 3.05 -2.00
Treviso 1.94 2.76 +3.36
Adanspor 2.99 3.55 -2.00
Freiburg 1.68 2.12 -2.00
Dagenham 2.36 2.88 Postponed
Wrexham 1.97 2.58 -2.00
Salernitana 2.58 3.60 +4.98


Day
2/8
-3.66

To Date
23/71 32.39%
Bank +4.07

[MattR]

Tuesday

Cheltenham
2.59 3.65
Northampton
2.05 2.40
Histon
2.07 2.46
Rushden
2.31 3.00

[crazybadger]

Did you do your correct scores over the weekend? Any nice winners?

I had 1 correct score come up which ended up with the week-end about even. Still about 330% ROI so far :)

Hope this concept works for you. I like it because it makes logical sense as well as aims for good "value". I'm got a couple similar and while they wont turn an instant massive profit they look like they can have solid returns much like this one. All the best.

[jonahjones]

Bad luck last night Matt.

If it wasn't for the pesky 94th minute equaliser from Oldham then you would have landed a decent touch with Cheltenham. :(

[MattR]

Bad luck last night Matt.

If it wasn't for the pesky 94th minute equaliser from Oldham then you would have landed a decent touch with Cheltenham. :(

Thanks JJ, yes, thought I had that one!


Tuesday

Cheltenham
2.59 3.65 -2.00
Northampton
2.05 2.40 -2.00
Histon
2.07 2.46 -2.00
Rushden
2.31 3.00 -2.00


Day
0/4
-8.00

To Date:
23/75 30.66%
Bank -3.93


Just two tonight, one in England the other in Brazil

Chesterfield
2.61
3.05
Noroeste
3.47
4.30



Also going to continue here with the HT/FT that I have been running. This is the lowest predicted odds for the ht/ft market that are a value bet. Two for tonight.... for the record although I will start from zero here, I have been running this for the past 3 days and results to date are 3/13 £22.38 profit (with £3 level stakes)


I am using £3 stakes for these

Kapfenberg v Altach
HH 2.02 3.50

Chesterfield v Rochdale
AA 3.96 4.90

[crazybadger]

Also going to continue here with the HT/FT that I have been running. This is the lowest predicted odds for the ht/ft market that are a value bet. Two for tonight.... for the record although I will start from zero here, I have been running this for the past 3 days and results to date are 3/13 £22.38 profit (with £3 level stakes)

So does that mean you start at the lowest odds (i.e likeliest) and then move through the until you find a value bet? Or do you only look at the likeliest and if it is not value then no bet?

I'm testing both strategies atm but interested to see your thoughts.

[MattR]

I'm working through until I find the lowest one that is value. I think half the problem with this is there are so many possible permutations of things you could test! How's it looking on that for you, does either seem better than the other so far?

[crazybadger]

I know what you mean about all the permuatations. I was following this manually for a while and I was recording about 25 different theories. Some were absolute rubbish but some look good.

When I did it manually (EPL and Serie A) for HT/FT I had the following stats (betting 1 unit each time and including 5% commission):

Likeliest that has Value (what you currently do):
Games: 81
Selections: 81
Wins: 18 (22.22%)
P&L: 20.41 units
ROI: 25.20%
(interestingly EPL was +30 and SerieA was -10)

Most likely only if it has value
Games: 81
Selections: 45
Wins: 13 (28.89%)
P&L: 14.57 units
ROI: 32.38%
(EPL was +18, SerieA was -3.5)

So either method looks good - more of a decisions around ROI and actual physical bank growth.

Being a bit of an IT geek I like to automate time-consuming tasks so I have been writing tools that do all this for me (getting the data, doing the calculations, getting prices from BF for comparision, and analysing the different permutations of possible theories). However I haven't quite finished the auto-analysis part so I cant give you stats from the recent 70 odd games that I have got data for. Maybe in a few weeks I will be able to and by then I should have a fair few matches to make it (hopefully) more accurate.

[MattR]

Interesting results CB. I wonder whether Serie A is performing worse on HT/FT due to the lower average goals per game? Having said that, the Premier is hardly awash with goals these days either. The Bundesliga could be a good one to test it on and the Eredivisie, both are fairly free scoring so in theory the HH and AA at least should be more prevalent. The thing I really like with the HT/FT (and scores) is that you really don't need much of a strike rate to make profit.


Weds results

Home Wins

Chesterfield +3.93
2.61
3.05
Noroeste -2.00
3.47
4.30

Weds
1/2
+1.93

To Date
24/77 31.16%
Bank -2.00


HT/FT

Kapfenberg v Altach -3.00
HH 2.02 3.50

Chesterfield v Rochdale -3.00
AA 3.96 4.90


To Date
0/2
Bank -6.00

[MattR]

Friday

Home Wins:

Bastia
2.37
3.25
Troyes
2.32
3.05
Vannes
2.87
3.15
MVV
2.63
3.45


HT/FT

Southend v Hartlepool
DH 3.70 5.20

[MattR]

Friday

Home Wins:

Bastia -2.00
2.37
3.25
Troyes -2.00
2.32
3.05
Vannes +4.13
2.87
3.15
MVV +4.71
2.63
3.45


Day
2/4
+4.84

To Date:
26/81
Bank +2.84


HT/FT

Southend v Hartlepool
DH 3.70 5.20 -3.00


To Date
0/3
Bank -9.00

[MattR]

Saturday

Home Wins

Brighton
2.82
3.2
Crewe
3.05
3.45
Hereford
2.20
3.10
Yeovil
2.64
3.10
Brentford
1.70
2.20
Grimsby
1.94
2.24
Morecambe
2.21
2.50
Wycombe
1.96
2.22
Barueri
2.06
2.90
Girona
2.01
2.40
Xerez
2.01
2.66
Castellon
2.22
2.56

[MattR]

Saturday HT/FT's decided to do all the League 1 and 2 games.

Peterboro v Leicester
HH 3.69 5.80

Brighton v Tranmere
AA 3.74 4.50

Bristol R v Stockport
HH 3.31 3.40

Carlisle v Northampton
AA 4.90 6.60

Crewe v Millwall
AA 3.96 4.30

Hereford v Huddersfield
HH 3.28 5.60

Leyton O v Oldham
HH 3.65 5.40

Leeds v MK Dons
AA 4.24 7.60

Scunthorpe v Colchester
HH 3.05 3.30

Walsall v Cheltenham
AA 4.62 10.00

Yeovil v Swindon
AA 3.86 4.90


Barnet v Darlington
DD 4.11 5.50

Brentford v Gillingham
HH 2.68 3.80

Bury v Bournemouth
HH 2.76 3.70

Chesterfield v Port Vale
HH 2.62 2.90

Chester v Bradford
HH 3.33 8.40

Dagenham v Macclesfield
AA 6.53 11.50

Grimsby v Aldershot
HH 2.57 3.80

Lincoln v Notts C
AA 4.13 7.20

Morecambe v Luton
HH 3.29 4.40

Rochdale v Exeter
DH 5.28 5.70

Rotherham v Accrington
HH 2.92 2.98

Wycombe v Shrewsbury
HH 2.91 4.30