NRL 2009 - Ranking Experiment

[crazybadger]

So I've been experimenting with a method of ranking teams and assigning points based on how they perform against opposition. It's still in it's infancy but I will post them here as that might keep me motivated (hopefully).

There are 2 different methods that I hope to test:
1) Teams get a ranking and then compare the 2 teams total points to derive odds
2) Teams get a ranking and then compare the "change per game" points to derive odds

The result is that I will bet each team where the odds seem better than the ranking indicates.

[crazybadger]

So these are the predicted prices. I will check the actual closer to kick-off times...

Round 4 - Method 1 (Implied)
Broncos 1.72 v Dragons 2.39
Roosters 2.52 v Eels 1.66
Panthers 2.50 v Tigers 1.67
Storm 2.05 v Titans 1.95
Warriors 2.07 v 1.93 Rabbitohs
Bulldogs 1.71 v Sharks 2.42
Knights 1.62 v Sea Eagles 2.63
Raiders 2.63 v Cowboys 1.62

Round 4 - Method 2 (Pts Change)
Broncos 1.57 v Dragons 2.75
Roosters 2.34 v Eels 1.74
Panthers 2.33 v Tigers 1.75
Storm 2.18 v Titans 1.85
Warriors 2.38 v Rabbitohs 1.72
Bulldogs 1.79 v Sharks 2.27
Knights 1.80 v Sea Eagles 2.25
Raiders 2.25 v Cowboys 1.80

[crazybadger]

round 4 - Method 1 (implied)
Broncos 1.72 V Dragons 2.39...dragons @ 2.90
Roosters 2.52 V Eels 1.66...eels @ 1.69
Panthers 2.50 V Tigers 1.67...tigers @ 1.85
Storm 2.05 V Titans 1.95...titans @ 4.90
Warriors 2.07 V 1.93 Rabbitohs...rabbitohs @ 2.64
Bulldogs 1.71 V Sharks 2.42...no Value/no Bet
Knights 1.62 V Sea Eagles 2.63...knights @ 2.58
Raiders 2.63 V Cowboys 1.62...cowboys @1.80

round 4 - Method 2 (pts Change)
Broncos 1.57 V Dragons 2.75...dragons @ 2.90
Roosters 2.34 V Eels 1.74...roosters @ 2.44
Panthers 2.33 V Tigers 1.75...tigers @ 1.85
Storm 2.18 V Titans 1.85...titans @ 4.90
Warriors 2.38 V Rabbitohs 1.72...rabbitohs @ 2.64
Bulldogs 1.79 V Sharks 2.27...sharks @ 2.36
Knights 1.80 V Sea Eagles 2.25...knights @ 2.58
Raiders 2.25 V Cowboys 1.80...raiders @ 2.38

Method 1
4/7
+5.58 units (after commission)

Method 2
6/8
+9.26 units (after commission)

Well thats a good start!

[crazybadger]

Round 5 - Method 1
Eels 2.68 v 1.59 Dragons
Roosters 2.37 v 1.73 Broncos
Sharks 2.10 v 1.91 Raiders
Storm 2.07 v 1.94
Cowboys 3.20 v 1.45 Titans
Knights 1.93 v 2.07 Warriors
Sea Eagles 3.25 v 1.44 Tigers
Bulldogs 2.12 v 1.90 Rabbitohs

Round 5 - Method 2
Eels 3.21 v 1.45 Dragons
Roosters 5.83 v 1.21 Broncos
Sharks 2.04 v 1.96 Raiders
Storm 2.62 v 1.62 Panthers
Cowboys 2.48 v 1.68 Titans
Knights 1.86 v 2.16 Warriors
Sea Eagles 2.44 v 1.69 Tigers
Bulldogs 2.26 v 1.79 Rabbitohs

Hmmm there are a couple of anomaly odds there in the 2nd method. Perhaps my formula has a problem and I was lucky last week.

[crazybadger]

Round 5 - Method 1
Eels 2.68 v 1.59 Dragons...no value/no bet
Roosters 2.37 v 1.73 Broncos ...Roosters @ 2.74
Sharks 2.10 v 1.91 Raiders...Raiders @ 2.10
Storm 2.07 v 1.94 Panthers ...Panthers @ 4.44
Cowboys 3.20 v 1.45 Titans ...Titans @ 2.30
Knights 1.93 v 2.07 Warriors ...Warriors @ 2.36
Sea Eagles 3.25 v 1.44 Tigers ...Tigers @ 3.35
Bulldogs 2.12 v 1.90 Rabbitohs ...Rabbitohs @ 1.94

Round 5 - Method 2
Eels 3.21 v 1.45 Dragons...Dragons @ 1.57
Roosters 5.83 v 1.21 Broncos ...Broncos @ 1.57
Sharks 2.04 v 1.96 Raiders ...Raiders @ 2.10
Storm 2.62 v 1.62 Panthers ...Panthers @ 4.44
Cowboys 2.48 v 1.68 Titans ...Titans @ 2.30
Knights 1.86 v 2.16 Warriors ...Warriors @ 2.36
Sea Eagles 2.44 v 1.69 Tigers ...Tigers @ 3.35
Bulldogs 2.26 v 1.79 Rabbitohs ...Rabbitohs @ 1.94

Method 1
6/14 (42.86%)
+2.87 units (after commission)

Method 2
10/15 (66.67%)
+8.63 units (after commission)

[crazybadger]

Round 6 - Method 1
Panthers 2.97 v 1.51 Broncos
Titans 1.50 v 3.00 Raiders
Dragons 1.63 v 2.59 Knights
Rabbitohs 1.54 v 2.87 Sea Eagles
Sharks 2.08 v 1.92 Cowboys
Warriors 2.07 v 1.93 Roosters
Eels 3.03 v 1.49 Bulldogs
Tigers 2.54 v 1.65 Storm

Round 6 - Method 2
Panthers 2.70 v 1.59 Broncos
Titans 1.58 v 2.73 Raiders
Dragons 1.39 v 3.55 Knights
Rabbitohs 1.80 v 2.24 Sea Eagles
Sharks 2.02 v 1.98 Cowboys
Warriors 2.05 v 1.95 Roosters
Eels 2.59 v 1.63 Bulldogs
Tigers 2.30 v 1.77 Storm

[crazybadger]

Round 6 - Method 1
Panthers 2.97 v 1.51 Broncos...Broncos @ 1.67
Titans 1.50 v 3.00 Raiders ...Raiders @ 3.45
Dragons 1.63 v 2.59 Knights ...Knights @ 3.0
Rabbitohs 1.54 v 2.87 Sea Eagles ...Rabbits @ 2.72
Sharks 2.08 v 1.92 Cowboys ...Sharks @ 2.52
Warriors 2.07 v 1.93 Roosters ...Roosters @ 2.76
Eels 3.03 v 1.49 Bulldogs ...Bulldogs @ 1.56
Tigers 2.54 v 1.65 Storm ...Tigers @ 2.98

Round 6 - Method 2
Panthers 2.70 v 1.59 Broncos ...Broncos @ 1.67
Titans 1.58 v 2.73 Raiders ...Raiders @ 3.45
Dragons 1.39 v 3.55 Knights ...Dragons @ 1.48
Rabbitohs 1.80 v 2.24 Sea Eagles ...Rabbits @ 2.72
Sharks 2.02 v 1.98 Cowboys ...Sharks @ 2.52
Warriors 2.05 v 1.95 Roosters ...Roosters @ 2.76
Eels 2.59 v 1.63 Bulldogs...No Value/No Bet
Tigers 2.30 v 1.77 Storm ...Tigers @ 2.98

Method 1
10/22 (45.45%)
+4.82 units (after commission)

Method 2
12/22 (54.55%)
+6.15 units (after commission)

[crazybadger]

Method 1
Broncos 1.35 v 3.89 Eels
Rabbits 1.44 v 3.26 Sharks
Roosters 3.20 v 1.45 Dragons
Storm 2.00 v 2.00 Warriors
Cowboys 2.29 v 1.77 Sea Eagles
Raiders 3.60 v 1.38 Bulldogs
Tigers 2.52 v 1.66 Knights
Panthers 3.75 v 1.36 Titants

Method 2
Broncos 1.65 v 2.55 Eels
Rabbits 1.72 v 2.38 Sharks
Roosters 2.43 v 1.70 Dragons
Storm 2.00 v 2.00 Warriors
Cowboys 2.16 v 1.86 Sea Eagles
Raiders 2.56 v 1.64 Bulldogs
Tigers 3.37 v 1.42 Knights
Panthers 3.75 v 1.63 Titants

[crazybadger]

Method 1
Broncos 1.35 v 3.89 Eels...Eels @ 4.44
Rabbits 1.44 v 3.26 Sharks...Rabbits @ 1.68
Roosters 3.20 v 1.45 Dragons...Dragons@ 1.73
Storm 2.00 v 2.00 Warriors...Warriors @ 2.90
Cowboys 2.29 v 1.77 Sea Eagles ...Sea Eagles @ 2.32
Raiders 3.60 v 1.38 Bulldogs ...Bulldogs @ 2.32
Tigers 2.52 v 1.66 Knights ...Knights @ 1.94
Panthers 3.75 v 1.36 Titans ...Titans @ 2.16

Method 2
Broncos 1.65 v 2.55 Eels ...Eels @ 4.44
Rabbits 1.72 v 2.38 Sharks...No Value/No bet
Roosters 2.43 v 1.70 Dragons ...Dragons@ 1.73
Storm 2.00 v 2.00 WarriorsWarriors @ 2.90
Cowboys 2.16 v 1.86 Sea Eagles ...Sea Eagles @ 2.32
Raiders 2.56 v 1.64 Bulldogs ...Bulldogs @ 2.32
Tigers 3.37 v 1.42 Knights ...Knights @ 1.94
Panthers 3.75 v 1.63 Titants...Titans @ 2.16

Method 1
14/30 (46.66%)
+5.15 units (after commission)

Method 2
15/29 (51.72%)
+5.83 units (after commission)

I realised that the Betfair markets I look at don't include golden point. They only are for the first 80 minutes of the game and if it's drawn then they pay as if it's a dead heat. As such I've updated the stats to also include the money made from the Warriors/Roosters golden point match in round 6.

[crazybadger]

Round 8 - Method 1
Sea Eagles 2.39 v 1.72 Storm
Eels 2.66 v 1.60 Cowboys
Titans 1.69 v 2.46 Rabbits
Sharks 2.63 v 1.61 Roosters
Knights 2.58 v 1.63 Broncos
Raiders 2.93 v 1.52 Panthers
Dragons 1.59 v 2.69 Warriors
Bulldogs 1.70 v 2.43 Tigers


Round 8 - Method 2
Sea Eagles 2.31 v 1.76 Storm
Eels 2.22 v 1.82 Cowboys
Titans 1.43 v 3.34 Rabbits
Sharks 2.08 v 1.93 Roosters
Knights 3.21 v 1.45 Broncos
Raiders 2.63 v 1.61 Panthers
Dragons 1.50 v 3.02 Warriors
Bulldogs 1.57 v 2.76 Tigers

[crazybadger]

Round 8 - Method 1
Sea Eagles 2.39 v 1.72 Storm...Storm @ 1.99
Eels 2.66 v 1.60 Cowboys ...Eels @ 2.80
Titans 1.69 v 2.46 Rabbits...Rabbits @ 3.25
Sharks 2.63 v 1.61 Roosters ...Roosters @ 1.66
Knights 2.58 v 1.63 Broncos ...Knights @ 2.66
Raiders 2.93 v 1.52 Panthers ...Panthers @ 2.40
Dragons 1.59 v 2.69 Warriors ...Warriors @ 2.90
Bulldogs 1.70 v 2.43 Tigers ...Tigers @ 2.93


Round 8 - Method 2
Sea Eagles 2.31 v 1.76 Storm ...Storm @ 1.99
Eels 2.22 v 1.82 Cowboys...Eels @ 2.80
Titans 1.43 v 3.34 Rabbits...Rabbits @ 3.25
Sharks 2.08 v 1.93 Roosters...Sharks @ 2.48
Knights 3.21 v 1.45 Broncos...Broncos @ 1.58
Raiders 2.63 v 1.61 Panthers ...Panthers @ 2.40
Dragons 1.50 v 3.02 Warriors...No value/No bet
Bulldogs 1.57 v 2.76 Tigers...Tigers @ 2.93


Method 1
19/38 (50%)
+8.34 units (after commission)

Method 2
18/36 (50%)
+5.81 units (after commission)

[crazybadger]

Round 8 - Method 1
Sea Eagles 2.39 v 1.72 Storm...Storm @ 1.99
Eels 2.66 v 1.60 Cowboys ...Eels @ 2.80
Titans 1.69 v 2.46 Rabbits...Rabbits @ 3.25
Sharks 2.63 v 1.61 Roosters ...Roosters @ 1.66
Knights 2.58 v 1.63 Broncos ...Knights @ 2.66
Raiders 2.93 v 1.52 Panthers ...Panthers @ 2.40
Dragons 1.59 v 2.69 Warriors ...Warriors @ 2.90
Bulldogs 1.70 v 2.43 Tigers ...Tigers @ 2.93


Round 8 - Method 2
Sea Eagles 2.31 v 1.76 Storm ...Storm @ 1.99
Eels 2.22 v 1.82 Cowboys...Eels @ 2.80
Titans 1.43 v 3.34 Rabbits...Rabbits @ 3.25
Sharks 2.08 v 1.93 Roosters...Sharks @ 2.48
Knights 3.21 v 1.45 Broncos...Broncos @ 1.58
Raiders 2.63 v 1.61 Panthers ...Panthers @ 2.40
Dragons 1.50 v 3.02 Warriors...No value/No bet
Bulldogs 1.57 v 2.76 Tigers...Tigers @ 2.93


Method 1
19/38 (50%)
+8.34 units (after commission)

Method 2
18/37 (48.65%)
+5.81 units (after commission)

[crazybadger]

Crap forgot to post these last night. Damm rep footy on friday throws my whole process out!

Method 1
Cowboys 3.71 v 1.37 Dragons
Knights 2.04 v 1.96 Titans
Broncos 1.35 v 3.83 Sea Eagles
Roosters 2.80 v 1.55 Storm

Method 2
Cowboys 2.58 v 1.63 Dragons
Knights 2.06 v 1.95 Titans
Broncos 1.71 v 2.40 Sea Eagles
Roosters 2.20 v 1.83 Storm

[crazybadger]

Method 1
Cowboys 3.71 v 1.37 Dragons ...Dragons @ 2.52
Knights 2.04 v 1.96 Titans ...Titans@ 2.46
Broncos 1.35 v 3.83 Sea Eagles ...Broncos @ 1.55
Roosters 2.80 v 1.55 Storm...Storm @ 1.61

Method 2
Cowboys 2.58 v 1.63 Dragons...Dragons @ 2.52
Knights 2.06 v 1.95 Titans ...Titans@ 2.46
Broncos 1.71 v 2.40 Sea Eagles...Sea Eagles @ 2.78
Roosters 2.20 v 1.83 Storm...Roosters @ 2.60

Method 1
20/42 (47.62%)
+5.92 units (after commission)

Method 2
19/41 (46.34%)
+4.50 units (after commission)

[crazybadger]

Round 10 - Method 1
Brocos 2.08 v 1.92 Titans
Dragons 2.49 v 1.67 Bulldogs
Panthers 1.23 v 5.34 Sharks
Roosters 5.04 v 1.25 Knights
Warriors 2.35 v 1.74 Cowboys
Sea Eagles 1.78 v 2.28 Eels
Tigers 1.77 v 2.30 Rabbits
Storm 1.36 v 3.81 Raiders

Round 10 - Method 2
Brocos 2.24 v 1.81 Titans
Dragons 2.77 v 1.57 Bulldogs
Panthers 1.83 v 2.21 Sharks
Roosters 2.51 v 1.66 Knights
Warriors 2.54 v 1.65 Cowboys
Sea Eagles 1.84 v 2.19 Eeels
Tigers 1.84 v 2.19 Rabbits
Storm 1.81 v 2.23 Raiders