Long Lashes(USA)

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From a first season sire Rock Hard Ten(USA) & from what I can work out, is the first of his offspring to set foot on the track but what a way to start by winning a Listed race first time out. Off the top of my head I can't think of another 2yo (besides that race at Deauville for unraced horses) other than my ol' mate Lammatarra but anyway, she clocked a faster time than that Walk On Bye who followed up in a Gr3 today & on the same card, a horse that Tom Segal of Pricewise is tipping up for the 2,000 Guineas, Kingsfort 16/1. I got 40/s for the fillies equivalent, all of 20/s on Betfair.

Her trainer says she will appreciate better ground than the 'gd/st so far encountered and her breeding suggests a more likely stayer than Walk On Bye. There is talk that she may be supplemented for the Moyglare Stud Stakes Aug 30th.....

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And then Godolphin step in, h'mmm

So where is Frankie Dettori? Why isn’t he booked to ride at Newmarket on Saturday? I’m concerned…

I’m also a little concerned as to why Mordin has ditched her on Saturday with preference to a RPR 80 debutant, Sent From Heaven, because we tend to underestimate horses that make their debuts on Polytrack – he says but after commenting that supplementing Long Lashes for the Gr1 Moyglare would be the right thing to do, maybe he thought like I did, that she wouldn’t run on Saturday, I hope she don’t!

Looking for value I suppose, Long Lashes is marked up at 9/4 & Sent From Heaven 8/s but Long Lashes foiled his bet last time and now he is bypassing her. OK Barry Hills has a fine record in this Sweet Solara Stakes with 4 winners from 9 runners in the last 10 years, if you want a saver, look no further, or perhaps keep reading but anyway

3.00 Newm – Long Lashes

Is set to run and for me the question will be, ‘how far will she beat Chachamaidee?’ Henry Cecil’s filly was 2 1/2l’s behind Lillie Langtry in the Albany on her second only start and while fresh again, is set to improve and has place prospects. Lillie Langtry at Leopardstown yesterday beat horses that Long Lashes had already put in their place and by a wider margin in her Listed race debut at the Curragh. It’ll be interesting but me is saying 3l’s.

Clive Brittain has won this race before and fields an interesting contender in Jira who has form with another Guineas possible Lady Of The Desert but on the figures, has taken 5 starts to achieve a topspeed figure only 2 points higher than what Long Lashes scored on her debut and only run, I can’t see her troubling the judge but for a place at best.

I think the Cecil & Brittain fillies represent no value and slightly agree with Mordin there but there could be a darker horse in this race, boasting the highest topspeed figure from only two starts, Admire The View at 14/s is the interesting place horse but alas

All these hopefuls, if there is any admiring the view to be had tomorrow – it’s going to be of the backend of & please see title of this thread for details.

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Oh well, it was fun while it lasted but it looks like the 1,000 Guineas winner will hail from somewhere else if this is anything to go by. Sounds like they are going to race her to death before next May.

""In proving a length too strong for Blue Maiden under Ted Durcan, the 2-1 favourite survived a scare when she was thought to be going into season just hours before the race.

She also proved the middle leg of a superb treble for the jockey.

Godolphin's trainer Saeed bin Suroor will now point Long Lashes at some of the first Classics to be staged at the new Meydan racecourse, namely the UAE 1000 Guineas and the UAE Oaks.

Meanwhile, the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh will come under consideration.

Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said: "She will be going to spend the winter in Dubai and could run in the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks at Meydan.

"A European campaign is also very important and we will take a look at the Moyglare." ""

http://www.turftrax.com/html/news/shownews.asp?id=278430

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No doubt you've all read the Timeform View of the Gr1 Moyglare Stud 3.45 Curragh:

"Long Lashes has the best form on offer, but this ground has to be a concern given her all-American pedigree, so preference goes to Lillie Langtry."

It's their Race Of The Day too, they have Long Lashes as 5lb clear top rated with a 'p' - now I'm just left wondering how many horses that win on soft don't go on heavy?

Lillie Langtry has done nothing on the clock in four races & should be opposed, might have a little saver on Termagant too..

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It could be, after further inspection, the ground of her debut run, the guy who does the Going Correction in the Racing Post - he had it down as 'gd/st' at the Curragh that day, so it may be that she has never won on 'soft at all but

The Gr1 Fillies’ Mile 3.05 Ascot

While the whole world is against her today I’m afraid I am sticking with and matched at 4.2 last night & now on the drift to 4.5 at Betfair but

There is always some statistic that gets trashed in these big races and last week it was Godolphin’s win in the Leger, Masterly being the first horse for 20 years or so to win after already been racing further than 12f – this week there is one statistic that writes Long Lashes(USA) out of the race – 9 of the last 10 winners had won last time out and the other was placed, so Game Over, or is it?

One good stat for place players, the favourite, when they can decide who it is, has been placed 9 times in the last 10 runnings.

While Channel 4 have alerted the world to the market move on Lady Darshaan, now 8/s from 14/s – it could pay to remember that 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting, the third favourite won the other twice.

While Timeform have tipped up Mudaaraah to win – IMHO you may do better backing the fourth behind her last time EW, Blue Angel(Ire), from the same stable as last week’s Gr race for fillies, Pollenator, she would be my EW fancy.

Having had the beating of Long Lashes(USA) last time with Lilly Langtry, it could be A P O’Brien knows what it would take to beat her again and at least You’ll Be Mine(USA) won last time, a win for her today would also be bashing the stats though – let’s face it, if Cabaret had turned up I would be concerned but with only 2 winners from his last 28 runners my gut feeling is that all is not well with the stable but anyway

7 of the last 10 winners were top Racing Post rated, the other 3 were within 16lbs of the top – You’ll Be Mine is –23lb from tops & will have to improve dramatically to figure.

What swung it for me? Maybe the application of first time tongue strap? Maybe reading this in the Sporting Life:

‘Her subsequent defeat was put down to the heavy ground at the Curragh which is plausible and the vibes have been strong all week but it remains to be seen whether the race has left its mark.’

‘Er, what race? Having earned a whopping unadjusted 41 speed figure from the RP – it could be argued that she never even bothered that day, I think the jockey left his foot off the gas realising that to win she would be in for a hard race, she has now had nearly a month to get over it/? And this is ground more to her liking and me thinks Godolphin, while in such good form, can keep bashing the stats!

[Street cry]

Nice preview

[Godspot]

Nice preview

Shame about the result!

Shame I didn't mention the winner, Hibaayeb - who was pretty much next best on the figures, I just didn't think she would have been 8/1 and she didn't fit in on the stats, which got completely trashed in that race.

K Fallon in his latest Weekender article made Clive Brittain's win here his Performance of the Week but said while he enjoyed watching the race, he is confident that the Luca Cumani trained, Seta, would have beaten all of them!

But the biggest shame - is just wtf do Godolphin do to horses that they buy in? Off the top of my head, ok, Delegator won a minor event, Long Lashes won first time for them but now seems on the decline & is pretty much written off here & now as One to Follow. But Urban Poet and Evasive are another two that have gone downhill since their purchase - seems all in, horses they take charge of are more profitable to LAY than BACK!