Now don't shoot me but!

[lollipop11]

Hi there forgive me if I'm about to ask a stupid question - I'm a novice at this! This last week I've been following Templegate in the Sun. I've backed every horse he tips with the same small bet EW and in the last day or so I've added in Newsboy's (from the Mirror) predictions as well - the ones that differ from Templegate. So far I have made a total profit of £180 having started with £20. I'm thinking this must be too good to be true - otherwise surely everyone would be at it. Can some of you experienced punters tell me if I'm ok doing this or if at some point I'm likely to hit a massive losing streak. My understanding is that Templegate's tips generally yield 22% winners and 50% placed. I'm thinking of upping my stakes if the wins continue but don't want to risk losing my winnings if it's not going to pan out long-term. Any suggestions/reasons why this is/isn't a good idea long-term much appreciated!

[mathare]

Take the money you have made so far and run, run as far away as you can before you lose it all. And you will lose it if you continue as you are.

Templegate et al have to pick a horse in every race, that's their job. If they were professional punters rather than tipsters they would select anywhere near that many horses. Many races on any given day of racing are best avoided as they are too hard to pick a winner in with unreliable form etc.

As you say yourself if it were as easy as you are finding it everyone would be at it and we'd all be rich. We're not, which suggests it's not that easy.

So Templegate hits 22% winners but are the odds any good? What is the average odds of these winners? Does the average winner return enough to cover the 78% of his tips that lose? Similarly for the place bets - are they returned at evens for the place, on average? If not, you're going to lose money.

You have stumbled across what seems to be a good strategy simply due to short term fluctuations (luck) in a small sample of only a couple of weeks racing at most. Take the money you have won (through good fortune) and if you're serious about making money from horse racing read as much as you can on this forum to help you invest that money wisely. Else take the money and treat yourself or your loved ones with it and then stop following Templegate, or any other newspaper tipster or you'll end up in the poor house.

[Win2Win]

I can't really add much to that. The clue is in the word 'tipster', it does not mean pro-gambler.

22% is a pretty crap SR unless your hitting winners at 5/1+ on a regular basis.

More importantly you should have a betting bank in place staking no more than 3%. Without a bank you'll never make money long term.

[Street cry]

Take your money you have made and put it to work with a proven system and proper staking

[lollipop11]

Hiya, thanks for your advice - I took it and I am so glad! I kept track of what I would have won/lost and would have lost most of it again within days! I've now taken these winnings and am using them for a progressive staking system. I'd be interested to know what you guys think of progressive staking. It seems hard to lose so long as you have winners fairly regularly so I guess the trick is picking the winners - something I'm keen to learn more about. Where on here could I find info on selecting winners?

Thanks