mathare's Place Bets

[mathare]

I'm going to try another new system, this one is place only betting. I'll be settling to 1/5 of SP (rather than Tote placepool dividends or Betfair place SP) to make my life easier. Each selection will be a 1pt place bet.

Wednesday 5th August
2.10 Pontefract Kalasam Unplaced
2.30 Brighton Interakt Unplaced
3.50 Newcastle Soto 3rd @ 5/1
4.20 Newcastle Nisaal Unplaced

[mathare]

I've had better starts, to be honest. 1 out of 4 today for a loss of 2pts

[mathare]

Thursday 6th August
2.10 Haydock Diamond Duchess 1st @ 9/4
2.20 Yarmouth Excellent Guest 1st @ 8/13
2.30 Brighton Bab At The Bowster 1st @ 8/13
5.00 Brighton Strike Force 3rd @ 9/4

[mathare]

They all placed today - that's more like it :) A profit of 1.15pts on the day.

Overall
5 from 8 - down 0.85pts

[mathare]

Friday 7th August
2.20 Worcester Don't Be Bleu 3rd @ 2/1
3.40 Lingfield Schoolboy Champ Unplaced @ 10/3
4.10 Lingfield Ramamara 1st @ 15/8
5.00 Brighton Penang Cinta 1st @ 11/8
5.10 Lingfield Vamos 3rd @ 11/2
5.20 Worcester Pure Faith 2nd @ 9/4

[mathare]

5 out of 6 placed yesterday, a profit of 1.6pts

Overall
10 winners from 14 bets (71.43%
Up 0.75pts

[mathare]

Saturday 8th August
4.05 Ascot Five Star Junior Unplaced @ 15/2
2.40 Haydock Tranquil Tiger Unplaced @ 9/2
3.50 Haydock Skylla Placed @ 3/1
2.35 Redcar Observatory Star Placed @ 5/1
3.10 Redcar Summer Dancer Unplaced @ 5/1
4.20 Redcar Wovoka Unplaced @ 5/2
4.50 Redcar Ordoney Placed @ 4/6

[mathare]

3 placed and 4 unplaced today giving a loss of 2.27pts on the day

Overall
13 from 21 (61.90%)
DOWN 1.52pts

[mathare]

Sunday 9th August
2.10 Redcar Aquarius Star
3.00 Windsor Marcus Cicero
3.30 Windsor Chaperno
4.30 Windsor Heritage Coast
5.00 Windsor Keep Dancing

[mathare]

Only 2 of the 5 bets today placed and both were quite short prices. A loss of 1.7pts on the day

Overall
15 from 26 (57.69%)
DOWN -3.22pts :(

[mathare]

Monday 10th August
2.15 Southwell Desert Vision
2.30 Wolverhampton Dahakaa Placed @ 5/4
3.00 Wolverhampton Billich
4.00 Wolverhampton Commando Scott
5.00 Wolverhampton Rowan Lodge

[mathare]

Only 1 today and that was at a poor price so a loss of 3.75pts on the day

Overall
16 from 31 (51.61%)
DOWN -6.97pts :(

[mathare]

None today (Tues 11th)

[mathare]

Wednesday 12th August
2.10 Beverley Ancient Cross Placed @ 5/1
5.20 Beverley Mexican Bob Placed @ 10/1

[mathare]

Two out of two yesterday for a combined profit of 3pts

Overall
18 from 33 (54.55%)
DOWN -3.97pts :(

[mathare]

Thursday 13th August
2.50 Sandown Waseet Placed @ 4/11
3.15 Beverley Mey Blossom Unplaced
4.00 Sandown Mezenah Placed @ 8/13
4.25 Beverley Aquarian Spirit Placed @ 7/4

[mathare]

3 short priced winners and a loser today to leave us down 0.45pts

Overall
21 from 37 (56.76%)
DOWN -4.42pts

[mathare]

Friday 14th August
2.35 Nottingham Feelin Foxy Unplaced
3.45 Nottingham Stan's Cool Cat Placed @ 13/2
4.25 Newcastle Midnight Fantasy Placed @ 11/4
4.45 Nottingham Dark Oasis Unplaced
5.10 Newbury Potentiale Placed @ 4/1

[mathare]

3 from 5 today for a slight profit of 0.65pts

Overall
24 from 42 (57.14%)
DOWN -3.77pts :(

[mathare]

Saturday 15th August
3.55 Ripon Markab Placed @ 7/2
4.55 Newbury Larkham Placed @ 13/8

[mathare]

They both placed, at 7/2 and 13/8, giving a profit of just over 1pt on the day

Overall
26 from 44 (59.09%)
DOWN -2.75pts

[mathare]

Sunday 16th August
2.30 Bath Bush Tucker Placed @ 4/5
3.30 Bath Bold Cross Placed @ 10/1
4.00 Bath Very Well Red Placed @ 5/1
4.30 Bath Please Sing Placed @ 9/4

[seagoon]

:thumbswell done mathare

[mathare]

Thanks seagoon. All placed today for a profit of 3.61pts

Overall
30 from 48 (62.50%)
UP 0.86pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Monday 17th August
2.45 Wolverhampton Cheers For Thea Placed @ 5/1
3.30 Kempton Khor Dubai Placed @ 7/2
4.30 Kempton Alnwick Placed @ 9/2

[mathare]

Three more winners today to extend the winning streak to 10 now :)

Overall
33 from 51 (64.71%)
UP 3.46pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Tuesday 18th August
3.45 Brighton Wester Ross Unplaced
4.50 Brighton Ivory Lace Placed @ 5/1

[crazybadger]

Have you been running this in private before getting on here? Just curious if you have an expected strike rate and how the current 64% relates to it.

[mathare]

Have you been running this in private before getting on here? Just curious if you have an expected strike rate and how the current 64% relates to it.Nope, it was a speck of an idea a few weeks back after I had used a vaguely similar selection method for something else that had gone reasonably well but I hadn't really tracked it properly so I figured I may as well start it as a system on here and see how it went. So unfortunately I have no idea what the long term SR will be, or the ROI. Sorry.

[mathare]

1 placed (at 5/1) and 1 unplaced today so breakeven on the day

Overall
34 from 53 (64.15%)
UP 3.46pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Wednesday 19th August
4.25 Carlisle Feelin Foxy Placed @ 9/2
5.00 Carlisle Soto Unplaced

[mathare]

A winner at 9/2 and one unplaced for a loss of 0.1pts on the day

Overall
35 from 55 (63.64%)
UP 3.36pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Thursday 20th August
4.05 York Princess Taylor Unplaced
4.40 York Noble Storm Placed @ 9/2
5.20 Stratford Bulwark Unplaced

[mathare]

1 from 3 today (at 9/2) so a loss of 1.1pts on the day

Overall
36 from 58 (62.07%)
UP 2.26pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Friday 21st August
None today

[mathare]

Saturday 22nd August
2.20 Ripon We'll Deal Again Unplaced
2.30 Newton Abbot Brousse En Feux Placed @ 6/1
3.40 Newton Abbot Sweet World Placed @ 7/1

[mathare]

Two out of three yesterday for a profit of 1.6pts

Overall
38 from 61 (62.30%)
UP 3.86pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Sunday 23rd August
2.40 Folkestone Sir Ike Placed @ 6/5
5.20 Musselburgh Northern Flyer Placed @ 11/4

[mathare]

Both placed today, at 6/5 and 11/4 for a profit of 0.79pts

Overall
40 from 63 (63.49%)
UP 4.65pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Monday 24th August
2.20 Hamilton Pure Nostalgia Unplaced
3.30 Windsor Dontbugthebunny Placed @ 9/4
4.00 Windsor Jairzinho Unplaced
5.00 Windsor Laughing Boy Unplaced

[mathare]

Rubbish today with just 1 placed selection and that was a short price (9/4). A loss of 2.55pts today

Overall
41 from 67 (61.19%)
UP 2.10pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Tuesday 25th August
3.00 Southwell Cape Kimberley Unplaced
5.00 Southwell Ours Placed @ 6/1

[mathare]

A winner (at 6/1) and a loser yesterday so a slight profit on the day of 0.2pts

Overall
42 from 69 (60.87%)
UP 2.30pts :thumbs

[mathare]

Wednesday 26th August
3.00 Warwick Mythical Blue
3.40 Ayr Boy Blue
4.00 Warwick Kalam Daleel
4.40 Ayr Captain Scooby
5.00 Warwick Bold Cross

[mathare]

Mythical Blue the only placed selection and at a rubbish price of 5/4 so we experienced a loss of 3.75pts today.

Overall
43 from 74 (58.11%)
DOWN 1.45pts :(

[mathare]

Thursday 27th August
2.40 Ayr English City
3.20 Lingfield Iffy
3.40 Ayr Charlie Tipple
4.10 Ayr Pokfulham
4.30 Southwell Rainbow Mirage Placed @ 11/2
4.50 Lingfield Imprimis Tagula Placed @ 7/1

[mathare]

A couple today at 11/2 and 7/1 for a loss of 1.5pts on the day

Overall
45 from 80 (56.25%)
DOWN 2.95pts :(

[counterfeit]

Now, a certain (ex) member gave me some stick and told me I should give up betting if I couldn't hit runs of 5-10 placed horses, at an average price of 1.8. I do so appreciate this thread because it shows just how hard it is.

Keep up the hard work mate and get it turned around.

Sorry, just needed to add some unnecessary punctuation *!;:**

[mathare]

I do so appreciate this thread because it shows just how hard it is.

Keep up the hard work mate and get it turned around.Cheers fella. This was just an idea that came to me one day and I had no easy way of back-testing it so I figured I amy as well go live and just see what happens. It may never be truly profitable in which case it will slip away into the night at some point but as you say, it does show this game isn't quite as easy as some may think.

Thanks for looking in and for the encouragement :)

[mathare]

Friday 28th August
2.45 Ffos Las Changing Lanes

[mathare]

Unplaced at 2/1

Overall
45 from 81 (55.56%)
DOWN -3.95pts

[mathare]

Nothing for Saturday

[mathare]

Tuesday 1st September
2.30 Ripon Whirlijig
4.20 Leicester Dandy Man
5.20 Leicester Kalasam

[mathare]

Two placed at lousy prices (evens and 4/6) and a loser at 5/2 for a loss of 0.67pts on the day

Overall
47 from 84 (55.95%)
DOWN 4.62pts :(

[mathare]

Wednesday 2nd September
3.20 Lingfield Vamos
3.30 Brighton Seneschal
3.40 Hereford Good Old Days Placed @ 11/4
4.10 Hereford Silver Adonis Placed @ 10/1
4.20 Lingfield Belinsky Placed @4/5

[mathare]

3 winners and two losers today - a profit of 0.71pts on the day

Overall
50 from 89 (56.18%)
DOWN 3.91pts :(

[mathare]

Thursday 3rd September
2.00 Redcar Novay Essjay
2.10 Salisbury Raine's Cross Placed @ 5/4
3.50 Salisbury Shamandar Placed @ 9/4
5.35 Salisbury The Betchworth Kid Placed @ 4/1

[mathare]

Three out of four today for a profit of 0.5pts

Overall
53 from 93 (56.99%)
DOWN 3.41pts :(

[mathare]

Friday 4th September
3.20 Lingfield Avrilo Placed @ 6/4
3.50 Lingfield Street Power Placed @ 11/10
4.10 Chepstow Inside Story

[mathare]

Two short winners today (6/4 and 11/10) for a loss of 0.48pts

Overall
55 from 96 (57.29%)
DOWN 3.29pts

[mathare]

Saturday 5th September
1.55 Haydock Hamish McGonagall
2.10 Kempton Monsieur Chevalier
2.25 Haydock Confront Placed @ 7/2

[mathare]

Confront was my only winner today, at 7/2, so we lost 1.3pts on the day

Overall
56 from 99 (56.57%)
DOWN 5.19pts :(

This isn't working as well as I had hoped but I will keep it going for a while to see if it can recover...

[mathare]

Nothing for Sunday 6th September. Australia Day in the 3.00 at Worcester was a possible bet but I don't like dabbling in maidens

[mathare]

Monday 7th September
3.30 Newcastle Ancient Cross Placed at 11/8
5.10 Bath Dawn At Sea NR

[mathare]

One winner at an SP of 11/8 and a non-runner so a profit of 0.275pts on the day

Overall
57 from 100 (57.00%)
DOWN 4.91pts :(

[mathare]

Tuesday 8th September
3.10 Goodwood Contract Caterer Placed @ 9/4
4.55 Goodwood Effigy Placed @ 9/4

[mathare]

Up 0.9pts today with them both placing at 9/4

Overall
59 from 102 (57.84%)
DOWN 4.01pts :(

[mathare]

Wednesday 9th September
2.10 Epsom Bagayamo Placed @ evens
3.10 Doncaster Twice Over Placed @ 4/6
3.20 Epsom Funday Placed @ 4/1

This is probably your last lot for a while as I go on holiday tomorrow for 10 days. Not that they are making any money so missing them is hardly a big deal is it?

[mathare]

Three out of three today so at least I go into my break on a high with a profit of 1.13pts today.

Service will resume on the 21st September, most probably. It could be the 20th but I somehow doubt it, to be honest.

Overall
62 from 105 (59.05%)
DOWN 2.88pts :(

[mathare]

Tuesday 22nd September
2.00 Beverley Sphere Placed @ 5/2
2.30 Beverley Capucci
3.00 Beverley Coolminx Placed @ evens

[mathare]

Two winners but they were short prices so don't quite cover the loser. A loss of 0.3pts today

Overall
64 from 108 (59.26%)
DOWN 3.18pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 23rd September
3.10 Goodwood Arthur's Edge Placed @ 9/2
3.25 Redcar Benandonner Placed @ 11/4

[mathare]

Two bets, two winners yesterday for a profit of 1.45pts

Overall
66 from 110 (60.00%)
DOWN 1.73pts

[mathare]

Thursday 24th September
2.50 Perth Corkage
3.40 Fontwell Lady Hillingdon Placed @ 4/7
4.00 Pontefract William Blake Placed @ 5/1

[mathare]

A slight profit of 0.11pts yesterday with two winners and a loser

Overall
68 from 113 (60.18%)
DOWN 1.61pts

[mathare]

Friday 25th September
2.20 Worcester Irish Legend Placed @ 7/2
3.10 Ascot Shamandar Placed @ 8/11
3.20 Haydock Mister Hughie Placed @ 7/2
3.45 Ascot Princess Taylor
5.05 Haydock Trip The Light NR

[mathare]

A decent day today with three winners and a non-runner for a profit of 0.55pts

Overall
71 from 117 (60.68%)
DOWN 1.07pts

[mathare]

Saturday 26th September
3.55 Market Rasen King Troy Placed @ 4/6
5.35 Chester Zuwaar

[mathare]

King Troy knew what to do but Zuwaar fell short to leave us down 0.87pts on the day.

Overall
72 from 119 (60.50%)
DOWN 1.93pts

[mathare]

Sunday 27th September
4.15 Musselburgh Court Masterpiece

[mathare]

No good today

Overall
72 from 120 (60.00%)
DOWN 2.93pts

[mathare]

Monday 28th September
2.10 Bath Rakaan
2.30 Wolverhampton Out The Ring
3.00 Wolverhampton Milldown Story
3.10 Bath Fin Vin De Leu
5.50 Brighton Multahab

[mathare]

Winners at 8/11, 4/5 and 7/4 aren't good enough to give us anything than a loss of 1.34pts

Overall
75 from 125 (60.00%)
DOWN 4.28pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 29th September
1.50 Southwell Novay Essjay
4.40 Warwick Pintura

[mathare]

Pintura did the business at 13/8 but that was it so we recorded a loss of 0.68pts today and these continue to be quite rubbish but not quite rubbish enough for me to think about scrapping them just yet...

Overall
76 from 127 (59.84%)
DOWN 4.95pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 30th September
2.10 Newcastle Comptonspirit
4.15 Salisbury Di Stefano

[mathare]

Nothing today, down 2pts

Overall
76 from 129 (58.91%)
DOWN 6.95pts

[mathare]

Thursday 1st October
5.15 Ayr Soto

[mathare]

A winner at an SP of 9/2 for a profit of 0.9pts

Overall
77 from 130 (59.23%)
DOWN 6.05pts

[mathare]

Friday 2nd October
1.55 Newmarket Confront
2.05 Lingfield Quinsman
3.05 Newmarket Radiohead
4.15 Newmarket Drill Sergeant
4.35 Hexham Rockys Choice

[mathare]

A much better day with just one loser (Rocky's Choice at 8/11) with the others coming in at 7/4, 3/1, 14/1 (yes!) and 11/8 for a profit of 3.03pts

Overall
81 from 135 (60.00%)
DOWN 3.03pts

[mathare]

Nothing for Saturday 3rd October

[mathare]

Sunday 4th October
3.30 Kelso Heez A Steel
4.50 Uttoxeter Stoneyford Ben
5.00 Huntingdon Rifleman

[mathare]

Two winners (7/4 and 7/1) for a profit of 0.75pts

Overall
83 from 138 (60.14%)
DOWN 2.28pts

[mathare]

Monday 5th October
2.40 Pontefract Yaa Wayl

[mathare]

Today's pick was unplaced so we lose a point

Overall
83 from 139 (59.71%)
DOWN 3.28pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 6th October
2.00 Catterick The Name Is Frank
2.30 Catterick Oondiri
3.00 Catterick Silver Linnet
3.20 Folkestone Angelena Ballerina
5.00 Catterick Jackday

[mathare]

Three placed selections but at short prices results in a loss of just over a point

Overall
86 from 144 (59.72%)
DOWN 4.35pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 7th October
3.50 Exeter Jim Bobs Girl
4.20 Exeter Cool Friend
5.40 Nottingham Eastern Hills

[mathare]

All three place today at SPs of 4/6, 10/11 and 12/1 for a profit of 2.71pts

Overall
89 from 147 (60.54%)
DOWN 1.64pts

[mathare]

Thursday 8th October
3.45 Worcester Sprosser
4.35 Wincanton Classic Clover

Good Old Days (2.00 Worcester) would have been a selection too but I am not including it in the stats as these are being posted too late for that race

[mathare]

Both selections placed for a profit of 1.25pts

Overall
91 from 149 (61.07%)
DOWN 0.39pts

[mathare]

Friday 9th October
2.00 Carlisle Mcmurrough
2.30 Carlisle Middleton Dene
5.40 Lingfield El Diego

[mathare]

Back to earth with a proper bump today as Mcmurrough was the only placed selection and had an SP of a massive 1/2! A loss of 1.9pts on the day

Overall
92 from 152 (60.53%)
DOWN 2.29pts

[mathare]

Nothing for Saturday 10th October

[Godspot]

Try these Mathare, could put you in profit with a little luck!

2.30 Chep: French Saulaie(Fr)

2.55 Ascot: Golden Desert

3.30 Ascot: Classic Vintage

PS: No offence like but I would change your 'Unlucky loser' ting! You might start believing it!

[mathare]

Try these Mathare, could put you in profit with a little luck!A little luck? None of them were anywhere near being placed. I'll stick to my own selections thanks. And obviously these three losers won't be included in my stats.

[mathare]

Sunday 11th October
1.50 Lingfield Russian Rave
2.25 Lingfield Admin
3.10 Goodwood Haajes

[mathare]

Admin placed at an SP of 8/13 so a loss of 1.88pts on the day. Poor.

Overall
93 from 155 (60.00%)
DOWN 4.17pts

[mathare]

Monday 12th October
5.40 Windsor Good Buy Dubai

[mathare]

Nope, unplaced.

Overall
93 from 156 (59.62%)
DOWN 5.17pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 13th October
4.10 Leicester Mista Rossa

[mathare]

Drew another blank I'm afraid

Overall
93 from 157 (59.24%)
DOWN 6.17pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 14th October
2.30 Lingfield Hawaana
3.25 Uttoxeter Civil Servant
3.55 Uttoxeter Classic Clover
4.45 Lingfield Evening Sunset

[mathare]

Evening Sunset was unplaced but the others came in at SPs of 15/2, evens and 9/2 to leave us up 1.6pts

Overall
96 from 151 (59.63%)
DOWN 4.57pts

[mathare]

Thursday 15th October
4.50 Ludlow The Package

[mathare]

The Package placed at an SP of 4/7 so a profit of 0.11pts

Overall
97 from 162 (59.88%)
DOWN 4.45pts

As I have done with the False Favs, I will add in the Betfair SPs for these selections at some point, along with the Tote dividends maybe, to get more accurate profit figures. I can then decide from there whether or not to continue to post qualifiers

[mathare]

In adding in the Betfair place SPs and Tote dividends I spotted a few errors in my spreadsheet, particularly classifying horses as placed when they won 4 runner races btu I have corrected all that now and the proper stats are as follows:

93 from 159 (58.49%)
1/5th SP: -6.48pts
BSP: 4.78pts
Tote: -3.06pts

I know you can't place bet with a normal bookie at SP but I have been using 1/5th SP as an easy way of settling the bets. The system seems to be profitable to BSP, just about, but has a ROI of only 3%. I will keep this going until I have 200 bets recorded and then take another look at whether or not to carry it on

[mathare]

Friday 16th October
2.45 Redcar Jehu
2.55 Cheltenham Snap Tie
4.20 Newmarket Pusey Street Lady
5.30 Newmarket Merchant of Dubai

[mathare]

Snap Tie was the only placed selection and at a rubbish price too. Merchant of Dubai was a non-runner.

Stats
94 from 162 (58.02%)
1/5th SP: -8.38pts
BSP: 3.04pts
Tote: -4.86pts

[mathare]

Staurday 17th October
1.40 Catterick Lost Soldier Three
1.50 Newmarket Asset

[mathare]

Lost Soldier Three placed but Asset didn't, finishing in the middle of the pack

Stats
95 from 164 (57.93%)
1/5th SP: -8.98pts
BSP: 2.40pts
Tote: -5.46pts

[mathare]

Sunday 18th October
Nothing today

[mathare]

Monday 19th October
3.10 Pontefract Tabaret

[mathare]

Tabaret finished just outside the places

Stats
95 from 165 (57.58%)
1/5th SP: -9.98pts
BSP: 1.40pts
Tote: -6.46pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 20th October
5.30 Lingfield New World Order

[mathare]

The poor run continues with another unplaced selection

Stats
95 from 166 (57.23%)
1/5th SP: -10.98pts
BSP: 0.40pts
Tote: -7.46pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 21st October
1.50 Worcester Original Fly
3.40 Southwell Quest For Success
4.30 Bath Theologist

[mathare]

Nope!

Stats
95 from 169 (56.21%)
1/5th SP: -13.98pts
BSP: -2.60pts
Tote: -10.46pts

[mathare]

Thursday 22nd October
2.40 Carlisle Mirage Dore
3.55 Ludlow Dearson
4.30 Ludlow Backfromthecongo
5.40 Brighton Sinbad The Sailor

[mathare]

Two unplaced plus places at SPs of 3/1 and 11/4 so pretty poor overall. Again.

Stats
97 from 173 (56.07%)
1/5th SP: -14.83pts
BSP: -2.66pts
Tote: -10.76pts

[mathare]

Friday 23rd October
3.20 Ayr Eastern Hills

[mathare]

4th yesterday

Stats
97 from 174 (55.75%)
1/5th SP: -15.83pts
BSP: -3.66pts
Tote: -11.76pts

[mathare]

Saturday 24th October
2.15 Aintree Tidal Bay

[mathare]

2nd at 11/4 SP, 1.66 Betfair place SP and 1.30 on the Tote

Stats
98 from 175 (56.00%)
1/5th SP: -15.28pts
BSP: -3.03pts
Tote: -11.46pts

[mathare]

Sunday 25th October
4.10 Wincanton Pepe Simo

[mathare]

Placed at an SP of 5/2, Tote dividend of 1.70 and BSP of 1.68

Stats
99 from 176 (56.25%)
1/5th SP: -14.78pts
BSP: -2.39pts
Tote: -10.76pts

[mathare]

Monday 26th October
2.50 Lingfield Resurge
3.00 Leicester Ezdiyaad
4.10 Kempton Hereford Boy

[mathare]

Only one from those three today, coming in at 9/2 SP, 1.90 Tote divi and 2.38 BSP

Stats
100 from 179 (55.87%)
1/5th SP: -15.88pts
BSP: -3.08pts
Tote: -11.86pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 27th October
2.30 Catterick Noodles Blue Boy

[mathare]

Noodles Blue Boy finished half a length out of the places

Stats
100 from 180 (55.56%)
1/5th SP: -16.88pts
BSP: -4.08pts
Tote: -12.86pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 28th October
2.00 Musselburgh Eternal Instinct

[mathare]

I seem to have a knack for picking horses to finish fourth, as today's did. I'm not sure how much longer to continue with these.

Stats
100 from 181 (55.25%)
1/5th SP: -17.88pts
BSP: -5.08pts
Tote: -13.86pts

[mathare]

Thursday 29th October
2.10 Lingfield Princess Taylor
2.50 Stratford Skipper's Lad
3.10 Lingfield Beckermet
3.50 Stratford Nawow

[mathare]

Princess Taylor was 4th (again!) but the remaining selections were all placed. Profits of 1.30pts using 1/5th SP, 2.77pts to BSP and 2.60pts on the Tote

Stats
103 from 185 (55.68%)
1/5th SP: -16.58pts
BSP: -2.30pts
Tote: -11.26pts

I think I'll keep this going for at least 250 bets, perhaps till the end of the year, and then look at how things have gone before deciding whether or not to continue with it

[mathare]

Friday 30th October
3.45 Wetherby The Rocking Dock

[mathare]

Disappointing performance from Friday's selection, finishing unplaced.

Stats
103 from 186 (55.38%)
1/5th SP: -17.58pts
BSP: -3.30pts
Tote: -12.26pts

[mathare]

Saturday 31st October
2.05 Newmarket Swop
3.25 Wetherby Pettifour
4.15 Newmarket Misplaced Fortune

[mathare]

Swop was a NR, Pettifour placed at a lousy price and Misplaced Fortune should be renamed Unplaced Fortune.

Stats
104 from 188 (55.32%)
1/5th SP: -18.36pts
BSP: -3.91pts
Tote: -12.86pts

[mathare]

Sunday 1st November
2.05 Carlisle Killyglen
3.50 Carlisle Wise Choice

[mathare]

Wise Choice was a non-runner but Killyglen finished 2nd at 5/6. To 1/5 SP that's a profit of 0.17pts, the BSP was 1.21 but bizarrely enough the Tote place dividend was 1.80 - I guess Tote punters thought it would win or finish out of the frame.

Stats
105 from 189 (55.56%)
1/5th SP: -18.20pts
BSP: -3.71pts
Tote: -12.06pts

[mathare]

Monday 2nd November
1.45 Plumpton Love Of Tara
2.30 Kempton Kawagino
3.50 Wolverhampton Chookie Hamilton
4.00 Plumpton Laconicos

[mathare]

Kawagino was unplaced but the others all made the frame. A profit of 1.23pts to SP, 1.17pts to BSP and just 0.60pts using Tote dividends

Stats
108 from 193 (55.96%)
1/5th SP: -16.97pts
BSP: -2.54pts
Tote: -11.46pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 3rd November
2.10 Catterick Cono Zur
2.40 Catterick Northern Bolt
4.00 Exeter Present M'Lord
4.10 Catterick Red Wine

[mathare]

Two placed and two unplaced. A loss of 0.80pts to 1/5th SP or Tote dividends or a loss of 0.26pts to BSP

Stats
110 from 197 (55.84%)
1/5th SP: -17.77pts
BSP: -2.80pts
Tote: -12.26pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 4th November
2.30 Warwick Straw Bear

[mathare]

Unplaced

Stats
110 from 198 (55.56%)
1/5th SP: -18.77pts
BSP: -3.80pts
Tote: -13.26pts

[mathare]

Nothing for today (Thursday 5th)

[mathare]

Friday 6th November
12.50 Hexham Stoneriggs Merc
2.40 Fontwell Jump Jet
2.50 Hexham Sitting Tennant

[mathare]

All three placed, for a change, but at pretty lousy prices. A profit of somewhere between 0.86pts and 1.13pts depending on the prices used

Stats
113 from 201 (56.22%)
1/5th SP: -17.91pts
BSP: -2.67pts
Tote: -12.34pts

[mathare]

Saturday 7th November
1.15 Wincanton Terrible Tenant
3.15 Doncaster Tastahil
3.45 Doncaster Mia's Boy

[mathare]

Mia's Boy the only placed selection of the three. A loss of 0.90pts to 1/5th SP, 0.84pts to BSP and 1.10pts to Tote dividends

Stats
114 from 204 (55.88%)
1/5th SP: -18.81pts
BSP: -3.51pts
Tote: -13.44pts

[mathare]

Nothing for Sunday 8th

[mathare]

Monday 9th November
12.50 Carlisle Royal Mackintosh
1.55 Carlisle Roll Along
2.25 Carlisle Ocarina
2.35 Wolverhampton Ishismart
3.50 Southwell Chapel Flowers
4.40 Wolverhampton Xpres Maite

[mathare]

4 out of 6 placed yesterday. A profit of 1.25pts to 1/5th SP, 1.42pts to BSP and 1.20pts to Tote dividends

Stats
118 from 210 (56.19%)
1/5th SP: -17.56pts
BSP: -2.09pts
Tote: -12.24pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 10th November
2.00 Lingfield Sonowyouno
2.40 Exeter Inchidaly Rock

[mathare]

Both placed. A profit of 0.40pts to 1/5th SP, 0.54pts to BSP and 0.30pts to Tote dividends

Stats
120 from 212 (56.60%)
1/5th SP: -17.16pts
BSP: -1.55pts
Tote: -11.94pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 11th November
2.20 Warwick Rory Boy
3.00 Southwell Comradeship

[mathare]

Both placed :thumbs A profit of 0.77pts to 1/5th SP, 1.22pts to BSP and 0.60pts to Tote dividends

Stats
122 from 214 (57.01%)
1/5th SP: -16.39pts
BSP: -0.33pts
Tote: -11.34pts

[mathare]

Thursday 12th November
3.40 Taunton Classic Clover

[mathare]

Classic Clover came second at 15/8, 1.27 BSP, 1.50 Tote

Stats
123 from 215 (57.21%)
1/5th SP: -16.02pts
BSP: -0.08pts
Tote: -10.84pts

[mathare]

Friday 13th November
12.55 Newcastle Stagecoach Diamond
2.25 Cheltenham French Opera
3.10 Newcastle Lease Lend
4.05 Cheltenham Knockara Beau

[mathare]

The first pick was unplaced but the others all did the business. Profits of 0.35pts to 1/5th SP, 1.29pts to BSP and 1.80pts to Tote dividends thanks to a surprising 2.40 on Knockara Beau

Stats
126 from 219 (57.53%)
1/5th SP: -15.67pts
BSP: 1.21pts
Tote: -9.04pts

We're in profit to Betfair starting prices :yikes:

[mathare]

Saturday 14th November
1.10 Wetherby Candle
1.40 Uttoxeter Aston Lad

[mathare]

A winner at 5/4 (1.2 BSP, 1.10 Tote) and a loser

Stats
127 from 221 (57.47%)
1/5th SP: -16.42pts
BSP: 0.40pts
Tote: -9.94pts

[mathare]

Sunday 15th November
12.20 Fontwell Dew Drop Inn
1.45 Cheltenham Master Minded

[mathare]

Both unplaced

Stats
127 from 223 (56.95%)
1/5th SP: -18.42pts
BSP: -1.60pts
Tote: -11.94pts

[mathare]

Monday 16th November
1.40 Leicester Sacrilege
2.20 Plumpton Bensalem
3.10 Leicester Bureaucrat
3.40 Leicester Danzatrice

[mathare]

Two odds-on places, a non-runner and a faller. Down 0.77pts to 1/5th SP, 0.61pts to BSP and 0.80pts to Tote dividends

Stats
129 from 226 (57.08%)
1/5th SP: -19.18pts
BSP: -2.21pts
Tote: -12.74pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 17th November
1.00 Fakenham Pipers Legend
1.30 Fakenham Prophete De Guye
2.10 Folkestone Shropshirelass

[mathare]

Pipers Legend placed (9/2 SP, 1.89 BSP, 1.80 Tote) but the other selections both lost.

Stats
130 from 229 (56.77%)
1/5th SP: -20.28pts
BSP: -3.36pts
Tote: -13.94pts

[mathare]

Nothing for today (18th November)

[Street cry]

This is interesting Mat how that BSP is seemingly more geneorus that 1/5 of sp perhaps long term it will be acalculation you can impart in to research of other place systems.

[mathare]

This is interesting Mat how that BSP is seemingly more geneorus that 1/5 of sp perhaps long term it will be acalculation you can impart in to research of other place systems.If nothing else has come from this (and let's face it, it hasn't really) then it has shown that BSP for place betting is much better than 1/5th SP and the Tote dividends. I haven't looked at the place markets on the exchanges to see how easy it would be to get a price much above BSP but just taking BSP seems a reasonable option for place betting at least

[Street cry]

I agree it means that you can work on the expectancey that you an achieve an eachway sp return so makesbacktest calculating easier

[mathare]

Nothing for today (Thursday 19th November)

[mathare]

No-one has tried to improve these so they are still running at a loss :( However, after no selections for a few days we are back with a couple for today

Friday 20th November
3.25 Exeter Tara Taylor
3.35 Kelso Time Bandit

[mathare]

Both lost today. Maybe I need an inexperience newbie how to make this system better :thumbs

Stats
130 from 231 (56.28%)
1/5th SP: -22.28pts
BSP: -5.36pts
Tote: -15.94pts

[mathare]

Argh! I forgot to post these this morning and they had a decent day for once. Hopefully you'll all trust me with these as I went for:

12.20 Ascot Possol
12.50 Lingfield Forest Dane
12.55 Ascot Skipper's Lad
1.55 Lingfield Everymanforhimself
2.30 Lingfield Ocean Countess
3.25 Haydock Morgan Be

That's all but 1 placed :yikes: A profit of 2.78pts to 1/5th SP, 3.53 to BSP and 1.80 to rubbish Tote dividends

Stats
135 from 237 (56.96%)
1/5th SP: -19.51pts
BSP: -1.83pts
Tote: -14.14pts

[mathare]

Nothing for today (Sunday 22nd November)

[mathare]

Monday 23rd November
1.40 Ludlow Bureaucrat
3.40 Kempton Calzaghe

[mathare]

Both placed so a profit of 0.57pts to 1/5th SP, 1.10pts to BSP and 1.80pts to Tote dividends thanks to a remarkable 2.70 divi on Bureaucrat placing!

Stats
137 from 239 (57.32%)
1/5th SP: -18.94pts
BSP: -0.73pts
Tote: -12.34pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 24th November
2.20 Sedgefield Minouchka
2.50 Sedgefield Carrietau
3.10 Lingfield Magic Sky

[mathare]

Two placed and one unplaced for a loss of 0.20pts to 1/5th SP, 0.14pts to BSP and 0.50pts to Tote dividends

Stats
139 from 242 (57.44%)
1/5th SP: -19.14pts
BSP: -0.87pts
Tote: -12.84pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 25th November
12.00 Lingfield Golden Square
1.20 Wetherby Cunning Clarets
1.30 Lingfield Aeroplane

[mathare]

Two out of three - not good enough for a profit though. Down 0.69pts to 1/5th SP, 0.57pts to BSP and 0.78pts to Tote dividends.

Stats
141 from 245 (57.55%)
1/5th SP: -19.83pts
BSP: -1.44pts
Tote: -13.62pts

[mathare]

Just the one today

Thursday 26th November
12.55 Newbury Captain Americo

[mathare]

A faller at 8/1 so a loss of 1pt

Stats
141 from 246 (57.32%)
1/5th SP: -20.83pts
BSP: -2.44pts
Tote: -14.62pts

[mathare]

None for today (Friday 27th November)

[mathare]

Saturday 28th November
1.00 Newbury Kawagino
1.15 Newcastle Abbeybraney
3.15 Newbury Fairyland

[mathare]

A winner in the last at 9/2/2.12/2.30 to SP, BSP and Tote prices respectively. Not enough for a profit though.

Stats
142 from 249 (57.03%)
1/5th SP: -21.93pts
BSP: -3.37pts
Tote: -15.32pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 1st December
12.50 Southwell Mobaasher

[mathare]

A winner - up 0.12pts to 1/5th SP, 0.25pts to BSP and 0.30 to Tote dividends

Stats
143 from 250 (57.20%)
1/5th SP: -21.10pts
BSP: -3.13pts
Tote: -15.02pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 2nd December
1.25 Ayr Skippers Brig
3.00 Ayr Carrietau

[mathare]

A short-priced winner and a loser for a loss on the day.

Stats
144 from 252 (57.14%)
1/5th SP: -22.55pts
BSP: -3.70pts
Tote: -15.82pts

I will continue to run these through to the end of the year and probably then end this trial as they are going nowhere really

[mathare]

Thursday 3rd December
1.35 Leicester Nigwell Forbees
2.05 Leicester Double Mead
3.25 Market Rasen Wingull

[mathare]

Two out of three for a profit of 0.80pts to 1/5th SP, 0.50 to Tote dividends and 1.06pts to BSP

Stats
146 from 255 (57.25%)
1/5th SP: -21.75pts
BSP: -2.64pts
Tote: -15.32pts

[mathare]

Friday 4th December
1.35 Exeter Take The Breeze

[mathare]

Winner! A profit of 0.45pts to SP, 0.67pts to BSP and 0.50pts on the Tote

Stats
147 from 256 (57.42%)
1/5th SP: -21.30pts
BSP: -1.96pts
Tote: -14.82pts

[mathare]

Saturday 5th December
1.25 Sandown Sonowyouno

[mathare]

A winner again yesterday

Stats
148 from 257 (57.59%)
1/5th SP: -21.05pts
BSP: -1.61pts
Tote: -14.32pts

[mathare]

Sunday 6th December
None

[mathare]

Monday 7th December
2.50 Musselburgh Viel Gluck
3.10 Wolverhampton Flipping

[mathare]

A loser and a short-priced winner but not enough to make a profit on the day

Stats
149 from 259 (57.53%)
1/5th SP: -21.75pts
BSP: -2.37pts
Tote: -15.22pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 8th December
None

[mathare]

Wednesday 9th December
1.10 Leicester Early Wings
2.40 Leicester Pause And Clause
2.50 Hexham Abbeybraney

[mathare]

Two losers today, and because the 2.50 went down to four runners it was win only on the Tote so even though Betfair may have paid two places I am going to forget about that selection completely.

Stats
149 from 261 (57.09%)
1/5th SP: -23.75pts
BSP: -4.37pts
Tote: -17.22pts

[mathare]

Thursday 10th December
None

[mathare]

Friday 11th December
11.50 Doncaster Bobby Ewing
2.15 Southwell Nebeeda

[mathare]

One out of two yesterday with Nebeeda just being nosed out of a place

Stats
150 from 263 (57.03%)
1/5th SP: -24.35pts
BSP: -5.07pts
Tote: -18.02pts

[mathare]

Saturday 12th December
12.30 Doncaster Possol
1.50 Cheltenham Mon Mome
3.00 Lingfield Victorias Groom

[mathare]

Much more like it - 3 from 3 for a profit of 4.47pts to 1/5th SP, 3.89pts to BSP and 2.32pts to Tote prices

Stats
153 from 266 (57.52%)
1/5th SP: -19.98pts
BSP: -1.19pts
Tote: -15.70pts

[mathare]

Sunday 13th December
None

[mathare]

Tuesday 15th December
1.30 Folkestone Mortimers Cross

[mathare]

Folkestone was frozen off.

Wednesday 16th December
12.00 Lingfield The Name Is Frank

[mathare]

A winner yesterday at 4/1 (2.01 BSP, 2.10 Tote)

Stats
154 from 267 (57.68%)
1/5th SP: -19.08pts
BSP: -0.23pts
Tote: -14.60pts

[mathare]

Thursday 17th December
2.20 Exeter Pavillon Bleu
2.30 Southwell Mcconnell
2.50 Exeter Pasco
3.00 Southwell Avertis
3.20 Exeter Over Sixty

[mathare]

Three winners, a loser and a non-runner. Up 0.29pts (1/5th SP), 0.71pts (BSP) and 0.80pts (Tote)

Stats
157 from 271 (57.93%)
1/5th SP: -18.79pts
BSP: 0.48pts
Tote: -13.80pts

[mathare]

Friday 18th December
1.00 Southwell Lucky Mellor
1.35 Southwell Charging Indian
2.05 Southwell Confuchias

[mathare]

Two short-priced winners for a loss of 0.40pts to Tote prices, 0.51pts to BSP and 0.52pts to 1/5th SP

Stats
159 from 274 (58.03%)
1/5th SP: -19.31pts
BSP: -0.02pts
Tote: -14.20pts

[mathare]

Saturday 19th December
None

[mathare]

Sunday 20th December
2.15 Kempton Thunderstruck

[mathare]

A winner at 9/4 SP so a profit of 0.45pts to 1/5th SP, 0.53pts to BSP and 0.50pts on the Tote

Stats
160 from 275 (58.18%)
1/5th SP: -18.86pts
BSP: 0.51pts
Tote: -13.70pts

[mathare]

Monday 21st December
None

[mathare]

You may have spotted that I have pretty much given up on this thread. The system wasn't really going anywhere and I don't have the time to dedicate to a full back-test and looking at ways it could be tweaked it make it profitable. This will just serve as an exercise in demonstrating the merits of Betfair SPs in the place market relative to the alternatives as well as showing I'm not very good at place betting :laugh