for 2010 1,000 Guineas

[Godspot]

1,000 Guineas Watch

I’m not suggesting any bets here, just going to be commenting on media hype and keeping a watching brief. Having said that, I don’t think the 40/s about Long Lashes will be around much longer but

Aug 5th 09 – What a load of old tosh! Kieren Fallon’s column this week in the Weekender suggesting that last Saturday’s Luca Cumani trained runaway Newmarket maiden winner, Seta, is a fair price (@ 10/1) for the first fillies classic!

Rubbish! I tell you.

Since when did Mr Cumani start knocking out Guineas winners (http://www.racingbetter.co.uk/races/newmarket/1000_guineas_winners.html)? He (Fallon) says himself after pulling up from a gallop on her before that race, he thought, ‘Flilies’ Mile! I reckon he’s got the wrong race and should be more concerned about the Oaks but what did it beat? Nothing much and achieved as much in the process.

I have more respect for the rag’s guest tipster columnist who puts up Misheer for the Guineas as one of his two ante-post Eyecatchers and so far maybe Brian Meehan’s pair, Lady Of The Desert and Conniption but if there is one stand out bet right now – Long Lashes (http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=66790), recently purchased by Godolphin and entered up for Newmarket this weekend.

Betting here courtesy of Bet365:

2010 1000 Guineas Event Date 02 May 15:15

Each-way 1/4 1-2-3

Lillie Langtry 9/1
Seta 10/1
Cabaret 12/1
Misheer 16/1
Habaayib 20/1
Walk On Water 20/1
Conniption 25/1
Lady Of The Desert 25/1
Beyond Desire 25/1
Jealous Again 25/1
Chachamaidee 33/1
Walk On Bye 33/1
Don't Tell Mary 40/1
Gold Bubbles 40/1
Lady Darshaan 40/1
Kitty Kiernan 40/1
Long Lashes 40/1 (Bye bye, going, gone, see ya l8r!):Helooo
Sweet Sonnet 50/1

Others On Request

[Godspot]

Oh and now we have a new favourite, Lillie Langtry, who just beat at Leopardstown yesterday, 3 horses that were behind Long Lashes when she made her debut - by a lesser margin too. I seriously cannot see how Boylesports can have her as low as 6/1 – what if Long Lashes had ran at Leopardstown too and beaten the same horses again by the same distance? That would have been a race and I’m pretty sure her odds would be a lot shorter but anyway…

Nick Mordin in his Weekender column this week brings up another vein of Guineas form which is being totally ignored in the betting market – that of the French trained, Khalid Abdullah owned, Special Duty, who was in front of the Paul Cole trained Mata Keranjang, last week at Goodwood - a little more than a length second in a Gr2 to Xtension, who is floating at around 25/s for the 2,000 Guineas and then went on to record his highest speed figure by a juvenile filly this season so far. When you think like he points out, Special Duty holds a Cheveley Park entry and three of the last four French trained winners of that went on to success at Newmarket. My little ready reckoner thinks she should be in the betting too…

[Godspot]

Yep! Special Duty should certainly be in the Guineas betting - she just split two leading contenders for the 2,000 Guineas, Arcano & Canford Cliffs in the 6f Group One Prix Morny at Deauville today and was only caught on the line after making the running while the all aged track record was broke by the former. She has only raced 3 times and been involved in two course records & from what I hear connections are intent on bringing her over for the Cheveley Park Stakes.

& she still don't feature in the Bet365 betting, I bet she is by around 11am tomorrow!

[Godspot]

Yeh, they finally got there & Special Duty is put in at 10/s but the one I like the look of now has to be Brian Meehan's Conniption, she has drifted out to 40/s for no apparent reason.

Coming soon no doubt after all the recent record breaking times I'll have to do a 2,000 Guineas equivalent but just as an update here's how thet stand as of today from 365:

Seta 8/1
Lillie Langtry 8/1
Special Duty 10/1
Lady Of The Desert 12/1
Cabaret 14/1
Misheer 16/1
Long Lashes 16/1
Habaayib 20/1
Walk On Water 20/1
Jealous Again 25/1
Beyond Desire 33/1
Walk On Bye 33/1
Conniption 40/1
Termagant 40/1
Kitty Kiernan 40/1
Lady Darshaan 50/1
Don't Tell Mary 50/1
Sweet Sonnet 50/1
Others On Request

Next update will be after Special Duty wins the Cheveley Park, easy!

[Godspot]

3.45 Goodwood - Gr3 Prestige Stakes

None too sure but on the figures it could be that the Godolphin filly, Siyaadah, wouldn't have to improve a great deal to win this and if she was to do so would have to figure in some Guineas' lists, as things stand she doesn't.

[Win2Win]

Godolphins form is up and down more than a prostitutes ass lately.

[Godspot]

I wish I had checked earlier but they do seem much stronger in the colt department, 17 winners, compared to 4 fillies in the last 10 weeks or so and the only decent filly besides the sprinting Sand Vixen, they had to buy in, Long Lashes, (can't wait for tomorrow!) but having said that, that run was too bad to be her true running and I think it a case of chucking her in too deep, too soon.

[Godspot]

Suppose we had better add yesterday's heroine of the day: Termagant, only raced twice and beaten 3 of the main players but apparently wont be out again this season, 365 have installed at 16's but connections say they are more concerned about the Irish Guineas than Newmarket. Certainly one for next year's Notebook!

[Godspot]

Some lofty reputations took a knock this week with Misheer (why they put her back to 5f is beyond me but), Conniption and Seta, all getting thrashed....

One interesting addition from me though which may prove futile but yesterday, the race after Kingsfort was enhancing his 2,000 Guineas was won by a debutant filly with the same trainer as Termagant but was run in a marginally faster time than the Group 1 race - Crystal Gal(Ire)

[Godspot]

I have just added:

Eolith
W. J. Knight

"While she followed up her Newm 7f debut win (same card as Long Lashes Gr3 win) beating 3 USA bred on Kempton's AW, the 2nd & 3rd from Newm finished 1st & 2nd in a Gr2 at Doncaster beating 1,000 G's favourite Seta - if I was in charge of Godolphin I would be snapping this filly up!"

To my turftrax 50 to Follow & will soon be updating the blog (3 winners from 5 runners last Saturday but) for an Elite 50 for the Flat before I embark on a similar group for the stix.

Although Eolith didn't have to be at her best at Kempton, the 3l's 3rd (a similar distance as Hibaayeb who just ran Gr2 May Hill Stakes 2nd, that was one place in front of former 1,000 Guineas favourite Seta), AWASEEF(USA), is running in the first at Kempton 5.45 this evening and technically speaking represents a drop in class as the Kempton do was a Class 3 Conditions Stakes, this is only a maiden.

OK Frankie has only one ride at Yarmouth but the Godolphin fillies are a weaker bunch than the colts and here in Eolith, after the exploits of the placed horses from her debut, we could have a real Dark Horse contender!

[Godspot]

Next update will be after Special Duty wins the Cheveley Park, easy!

After beating Misheer & Lady Of The Desert on Friday (& sorry I wasn't around to remind everyone - I been offline for a week, nightmare etc!) I think the 1,000 Guineas is pretty much a closed shop. Three of the last four French winners of the Cheveley Park that contested the mile classic went on to win. Considering she helped Arcano break the all-aged course record at Deauville previously I think she provides a solid benchmark.

Oh well, see what Maktoum al-Maktoum churns out on the AW over the winter! :ermmm