EPL Laying Match Favs for Half Time

[crazybadger]

I've got sports data out the ying yang at the moment and not enough time to analyse it all. However I did something for last years EPL season and found something I thought was interesting.

Taking the favourite from the Full Time odds market was correct 54%, however taking the same selection but into the Half Time odds market was only correct 37%.

Statistically that means if you can lay the match favourite at 2.70 or less at Half Time you'll be profiting. It's never as simple as that (as some are over that mark in the "close" matches) but I figure it might be something to keep an eye on as most of the favourites that do get up early won't sting too much.

So while I remember (I seem to have a habit of starting threads of new systems and forgetting them once I put them on autopilot) I'll try to record the details here.

[crazybadger]

I'll add the ones I've already recorded...

18/08/09
Sunderland v Chelsea @ 2.24
Wigan @ 2.62 v Wolves

19/08/09
Birmingham@ 3.0 v Portsmouth
Burnley v Man U @ 1.9
Hull v Tottenham @ 2.88
Liverpoool @ 1.72 v Stoke

Stats
4/6 (66.67%)
P/L: 1.4pts

[crazybadger]

In a little rush today so I'll just list the Half Time lays and fix it all up later.

22/08/09
Arsenal
Birmingham
Hull
Man City
Sunderland
Man Utd

[crazybadger]

In a little rush today so I'll just list the Half Time lays and fix it all up later.

22/08/09
Arsenal @1.59 v Portsmouth
Birmingham @ 3.25 v Stoke
Hull @ 3.55 v Bolton
Man City @1.83 v Wolves
Sunderland @ 3.1 v Blackburn
Wigan v Man Utd @ 2.26

Stats
8/12 (66.67%)
P/L: 3.98pts

[crazybadger]

23/08/09
Burnley v Everton @ 3.05
Fulham v Chelsea @ 2.26
West Ham v Tottenham @ 3.15

[crazybadger]

23/08/09
Burnley v Everton @ 3.05
Fulham v Chelsea @ 2.26
West Ham v Tottenham @ 3.15

Stats
10/15 (66.67%)
P/L: +4.72pts

[crazybadger]

24/08/09
Liverpool @2.02 v Aston Villa

[crazybadger]

24/08/09
Liverpool @2.02 v Aston Villa

Stats
11/16 (68.75%)
P/L: +5.72pts

[crazybadger]

29/08/09
Blackburn @ 3.15 v Westham
Bolton v Liverpool @ 2.2
Chelsea @ 1.51 v Burnley
Man Utd @ 3.1 v Arsenal
Stoke @ 3.45 v Sunderland
Tottenham @ 1.85 v Birmingham
Wolves @ 3.12 v Hull

[crazybadger]

29/08/09
Blackburn @ 3.15 v Westham
Bolton v Liverpool @ 2.2
Chelsea @ 1.51 v Burnley
Man Utd @ 3.1 v Arsenal
Stoke @ 3.45 v Sunderland
Tottenham @ 1.85 v Birmingham
Wolves @ 3.12 v Hull

Stats
16/23 (69.56%)
P/L: +7.76pts

[crazybadger]

30/08/09
Aston Villa v Fulham
Everton v Wigan
Portsmouth v Man City

[crazybadger]

30/08/09
Aston Villa v Fulham
Everton v Wigan
Portsmouth v Man City

Stats
17/25 (65.38%)
P/L: +5.78pts

[crazybadger]

Whaddya know, a couple of weeks off while cup games happen and I'm already forgetting to post here...but I did get the data before the games so I will put summary of what went down laying the FT favs in the HT market

12/09/09
Blackburn v Wolves
Liverpool v Burnley
Man City v Arsenal
Portsmouth v Bolton
Stoke v Chelsea
Sunderland v Hull
Tottenham v Man Utd
Wigan v West Ham


Stats
22/33 (66.67%)
P/L: +6.33pts

[crazybadger]

13/09/09
Birmingham v Aston Villa @3.10
Fulham v Everton @3.85

[crazybadger]

13/09/09
Birmingham v Aston Villa @3.10
Fulham v Everton @3.85

Stats
23/35 (65.71%)
P/L: +4.48pts

[counterfeit]

Seems the stats are levelling out to a similar level to last season which suggests this should be a prfoitable long term proposition. Do you actually bet on these?

[crazybadger]

Seems the stats are levelling out to a similar level to last season which suggests this should be a prfoitable long term proposition. Do you actually bet on these?
Not yet. I'm always a bit wary of these kinds of systems in case they are too good to be true. There's is still well over 300 matches left in the season so I figure I can hold off a bit longer just to be sure :)

Or if I get time I will go through the data I have from the past 6 seasons and see if this is a continuing trend or just a bit of pot luck

[crazybadger]

Going out but will put quick list of teams for the lays and update prices etc later

19/09/09
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Bolton
Sunderland
Hull
Liverpool

[crazybadger]

19/09/09
Arsenal @1.73
Aston Villa @2.02
Bolton @3.05
Sunderland @3.6
Hull @3.4
Liverpool @2.28


Stats
27/42 (64.29%)
P/L: +6.73pts

[crazybadger]

20/09/09
Chelsea
Everton
Man Utd
Wolves

[crazybadger]

20/09/09
Chelsea @2.14
Everton @2.64
Man Utd @2.32
Wolves @3.7

Stats
28/46 (60.87%)
P/L: +2.25pts

Big hit there...the annoying one was Wolves. At 3.70 they are well above the odds I'd like to be paying for this system and the result shows - a big dip in profit. But on the positive side at least it is still in profit! :D