for the 2010 2,000 Guineas

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2,000 Guineas Watch

Sorry for being a little premature with all this but you can safely blame (and actually, I’m quite thankful after having backed both Elusive Pimpernel and Showcasing last week and Long Lashes the week before) Tom Segal of the Racing Post’s Pricewise column, who, a month or so back put up Showcasing and Kingsfort as possible ante-post prospects for the 2,000 Guineas, it was while looking up the latter named that I noticed the run of Long Lashes and thought he’d missed something there but

A few years ago, six to be precise, 2003, a friend came to visit and asked me for an ante-post bet for the following year’s 2,000 Guineas and as it happened I had just made a note of a horse called Haafhd who had just broken the juvenile track record in what I call Lammtarra’s race, the Listed Washington & Singer Stakes over 7f at Newbury. I thought that must have been worth something so we both had a tenner on at 16’s, this year the race was won by John Gosden’s Azmeel and he too is quoted at around 16’s but

This year track records seem to be falling two a penny but the most impressive so far has to be the running of Arcano in Sunday’s Gr1 Prix Morny at Deauville. Although the race was set up by the filly Special Duty it takes something to come off that strong a pace and let’s face it, she burnt the sting out of Canford Cliffs’ fire and until then he was clear favourite – the race is wide open again. Actually, Arcano is now in the same ownership as Haafhd but with a different trainer, Mark Johnston, he of Mister Baileys’ fame.

Previous winners (http://www.racingbetter.co.uk/races/newmarket/2000_guineas_winners.html) of the race but this is how they stand as of now for next year:

Straight off, the fact that Saturday's Gr3 Sandown winner, Shakespearean (who John Francome described as the best 2yo seen so far!) is not listed, leads me to think that the dual Newmarket 7f scorer Silver Grecian, who he was behind prior to, is being seriously underestimated but

2010 2000 Guineas Event Date 01 May 14:00 from 365

Each-way 1/4 1-2-3

Canford Cliffs 10/1
Arcano 10/1 Deauville 6f all aged Course Record
Steinbeck 12/1
Kingsfort 16/1
Alfred Nobel 16/1
Showcasing 16/1 York 6f Juvenile Course Record
Cape Blanco 16/1
Dick Turpin 20/1
Azmeel 20/1
Al Zir 20/1
Elusive Pimpernel 20/1 York 7f Juvenile Course Record
Viscount Nelson 25/1
Awzaan 25/1
Xtension 25/1
Silver Grecian 33/1
Stunning View 33/1
Poet's Voice 33/1
Sea Lord 40/1
Emerald Commander 40/1
Big Audio 50/1
Emperor Claudius 50/1
Orpen Grey 50/1
Monsieur Chevalier 50/1
Kingdom Of Munster 50/1
Fighting Brave 50/1
Pounced 50/1
Mata Keranjang 66/1
Others On Request

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John Gosden has some interesting 2yo colts - Showcasing, we already got noted but word has it that he is going to be a sprinter not a miler - Azmeel is in the betting for this but I think is being considered more a Derby prospect, he also had an entry in tomorrow's:

Royal Lodge Stakes 2.30 Ascot

& while he boasts a fine 4 winners from 5 runners in the Fillies' Mile I got a feeling this year that that is on the slide & he could be out to improve his record here, 2 winners & a place from 6 runners - High Twelve doesn't feature in everyone's list for the 2,000 Guineas - yet!

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Certainly, having just looked at the betting from August, above & the most recent odds, one unbeaten horse from Ireland who just misses out on the figures, Cape Blanco(Ire), (now 20/s generally), especially after his first victim, Baglioni, just came out and beat his elders & ran the time of the meet, in the h’cap between the 2 classic trials at Leopardstown last weekend – just got interesting! But

Another dark horse who just misses out on the figures but unbeaten from one run & with the trainer of the last horse to win the race with a simialr profile, Michael Stoute, Workforce, after the exploits of the 6l’s second going on to win that most valuable sales race – should also be considered. Floating around 16/s.

But after:

9 / 10 110+ rpr as juvenile
8 / 10 won at 7f as 2yo
7 / 10 102+ TS as juvenile
7 / 10 Ran no more than 4 x in all
7 / 10 won on seasonal debut
6 / 10 trained in Ireland & 4 of those A P O’Brien
Two of the last 10 sired by Kingmambo & another two by Danehill(USA)

(Have to admit - it's wide open & the only thing I can see worth doing at this stage, is Pounced!)

Illusive Pimpernel(USA), dual 7f scorer from 3 starts but then nearly 4l’s behind St Nicholas over 8f gd/st at Doncaster (is as much as 20/s with SportingBet & as low as 12/s with others) – the only realistic hope of turning the tables I reckon is if the ground is riding on the fast side of good?

Pounced – would have to take this on seasonal debut, but while Ladbrokes go 20/s, Bet365 are 50/1 (that could be worth having a little ew go at!)
Xtension – would have to win on seasonal bow, (25/s in places)

Joshua Tree / A P O’Brien, is there on the stats, though he was btn in a h’cap, 40/s with Bet365 & 25/s BlueSq

Fencing Master / A P O’Brien but no speed figure, (20/s William Hills, 16/s generally)

Chabal, won at 7f but don’t think saw anything placed worse than 6th of the last 10 winners as this one was when well btn in Dewhurst, though btn favourite, (40/s with Ladbrokes & 20/s with Boylesports)

St Nicholas Abbey / A P O’Brien – raced exclusively at a mile so far & had soft in the going twice - lacking a speed figure but so was Sea The Stars but at least he’d won over 7f,

Others:

Steinbeck / A P O’Brien, not won at 7f but 4th & behind Fencing Master Gr1
Passion For Gold, unraced at 7f & technically held by St Nicholas 8f gd
Arcano, unraced at 7f but all aged Crse Rec 6f Deauville
Awzaan – would have to win on seasonal bow & not won or even raced at 7f as 2yo,
Canford Cliffs - not won or even raced at 7f as 2yo (could be held by Arcano),
Jan vermeer / A P O’Brien, not won at 7f & figs came 8f on very soft at St Cloud & form of 7f run just got a knocking during the first trials last weekend.

Last 10 winners - [Refuse To Bend 2/2 dual 7f scorer at 2yo, Footsteps 2/2 1 x 7f Gr3 scorer as 2yo, Rock Of, multi & 7f gs Newm Gr1 scorer as 2yo, George Wash multi & Gr1 7f scorer as 2yo, Haafhd 2 / 4 1 7f Listed Crse Rec as 2yo def RPT type, King’s Best 2/3 dual 7f scorer at 2yo, Sea The Stars 2/3 7 & 8f scorer as 2yo, Cockney 1/3 Gr2 7f 3rd, Henrythe 2/4 Gr2 7f 3rd, Golan 1/1 7f scorer as 2yo,]

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Fencing Master / A P O’Brien but no speed figure, (20/s William Hills, 16/s generally)

Sorry, made a mistake there, of course he has a speed figure, he was second in the Dewhurst!

I may have made a mistake also in not suggesting Illusive Pimpernel EW sooner but I'm not happy that he made his seasonal debut in the Craven and would rather he came straight here.

In conclusion to this thread, which I wont be doing again unless I see something special, Fencing Master, is my bet for the 2,000 Guineas, he's still available at 16/s & I'll have a little EW on that.

[Godspot]

Certainly, having just looked at the betting from August, above & the most recent odds, one unbeaten horse from Ireland who just misses out on the figures, Cape Blanco(Ire), (now 20/s generally), especially after his first victim, Baglioni, just came out and beat his elders & ran the time of the meet, in the h’cap between the 2 classic trials at Leopardstown last weekend – just got interesting! But

Another dark horse who just misses out on the figures but unbeaten from one run & with the trainer of the last horse to win the race with a simialr profile, Michael Stoute, Workforce, after the exploits of the 6l’s second going on to win that most valuable sales race – should also be considered. Floating around 16/s.



That's not bad! Only half mile out:splapme