FAO Crazy Badger

[MattR]

Didn't want to hijack Mat's gamblog so started a new thread. I didn't get the time to continue the HT/FT markets that we were both testing. I see that you carried it on, what if anything did you conclude to be the best thing to go with in the end? The best value, price, best value and price or what? Thanks.

[crazybadger]

The best systems I found were a combination of taking the "most likely" option (i.e. the option with the lowest predicted price) and a minimum value threshold. So the selections had to be the favourite in terms of my predictions and then also be getting a better price which gave a minimum value.

I also had a few others in test mode that were alright but were up and down. The best example was a best value in the FT Score market. It had a strike rate of around 5% but had winners of 200, 100, 75 etc. It had an ROI of 400% or something stupid but as a system is just wasnt feasible. It would require a big bankroll (or tiny stakes) and with a strike rate that low, the run of outs could be quite bad and a larger sample size would have been needed. I will be testing it this season though ;)

I've also moved on from the original basic concept and grown it quite a lot. My predictions now take more things into considerations and also apply different values to different games. I'm currently in the middle of getting this ready but aiming to have it up within a few weeks. I'll let you know how it goes.