Daily Waffle 29th October

[jonahjones]

A couple of decent winning backs have quickly evaporated with a flurry of winning lays. :(

[mathare]

I've only had one winning lay - Moonlife at 4.8. And plenty of winning backs today - 7 I think so far.

Were the other winning lays on the W2W system by any chance?

[jonahjones]

Were the other winning lays on the W2W system by any chance?


Aye.

[mathare]

Aye.I'd take a long hard look at that system, tracking the changes in SR and ROI over time if you can looking to see if it is on a serious downturn or just suffering a blip. My opinion is the former when I looked back over my records. At the very least you should consider revising your staking for that system and think about reducing your stakes/liabilities for a while as it can only be costing you money these days.

If you need any help analysing the data give me a shout :thumbs

[jonahjones]

Hucking Hero winning at 7.4 (in a race which contained a triple system back) has done nothing to improve the day. :(

[mathare]

Out of interest JJ what systems are you doing? And when did you last review them?

I ask because Aureate was only a back for me on one system and I had no lays in that race. I guess Hucking Hero was a W2W lay but what other systems did Aureate qualify on?

[CharlesBarkley]

Aureate was a selection on Odds on banker, system banker and a pro bet
My bank has dropped about 30 pts on the backs

[barrelmaniac]

I got lucky with a good early price, so I ended up very slightly up instead of very slightly down which i would have been with taking the sp which is what I usually do.

[mathare]

I got lucky with a good early price, so I ended up very slightly up instead of very slightly down which i would have been with taking the sp which is what I usually do.Try betting with one of the best odds guaranteed bookies (which is most of them these days) and then this is no longer a problem. I have been doing it for a couple of years at least now, since Bet365 first introduced it as a promotional thing and never withdrew the offer. Since then more and more bookies have followed suit and soon I reckon they will all do it.

[mathare]

A good day for me today (sorry to those who haven't had it so good today)

W2W Systems: 7 from 10, up 5.02pts
W2W Lays: 4 from 5, up 0.07pts
Other: 13 from 15, up 12.67pts

[barrelmaniac]

Try betting with one of the best odds guaranteed bookies (which is most of them these days) and then this is no longer a problem. I have been doing it for a couple of years at least now, since Bet365 first introduced it as a promotional thing and never withdrew the offer. Since then more and more bookies have followed suit and soon I reckon they will all do it.


but surely they won't beat the betfair starting price???

[mathare]

but surely they won't beat the betfair starting price???In most cases perhaps not. I didn't realise you meant BSP rather than industry SP

[barrelmaniac]

In most cases perhaps not. I didn't realise you meant BSP rather than industry SP


sometimes the very short odds ones are best at the bookies by the time the 5ish percent comission is taken off

[mathare]

sometimes the very short odds ones are best at the bookies by the time the 5ish percent comission is taken offI use Betdaq and a good percentage of my backs are with the bookies as their price is better than Betdaq by the time commission is factored in

[Win2Win]

If they are odds on it is always worth looking at the bookies prices.