mick 56 bets

[mick56]

hi every one will have a go at this my comfort zone is min 20pts bank so will start on £50 stakes if double the bank then double the stake i am only going to put up the horses i back myself there should be >20 per month but there will be occasions when there is no bets for a few days
results will be shown at betfair sp less 5% commission
regards to you all (no bet today)

[Street cry]

20 points is a bit high risk you are risking 5% of your bank per bet.
I would say 3% is the most you should be risking, very best of luck with your selections.

[bigcumba]

Good luck Mick, as SC says 5% is a tad high risk, unless you're particularly confident of your selection process... since you're putting your own hard earned on these we'll keep our fingers crossed!

[mick56]

Good luck Mick, as SC says 5% is a tad high risk, unless you're particularly confident of your selection process... since you're putting your own hard earned on these we'll keep our fingers crossed!

thanks guys and i agree with what you say with my own cash i bet 1pt win level stakes from a min 50pts bank
but as the thread says this competition is a bit of fun and the fear of the wall of shame might improve my judgement!

[bryn]

Good luck Mick

[mick56]

Good luck Mick

thanks bryn probably on a hiding to nothing but i am enjoying being part of this forum and i feel this is a way of trying to give something back
it could lead to new threads to open discussion about the reasoning behind the winners and losers etc

[mick56]

first one to day
ling 3.45 Resentful Angel stake £50


forgot to mention yesterday i place my bets (odds on no bet )
so the same will apply here

[mick56]

update from 25 nov resentful angel L PROFIT -50

BANK = £950

no bet today :doh

[mick56]

fri 27 nov NEWB 205 LIE FORRIT stake £50

[mick56]

update fri nov 27th

lie forrit won 2.95 stake £50 profit = £147-50

bank = £1097-50

[mick56]

sat nov 28th NEWB 2 40 KILLYGLEN
NEWB 3 15 DANIS GIRL
NEWC 3 25 COE

stake £50 on each

[mick56]

sat nov 28 update 3 bets all lost profit - £150

bank now £947-50

[mick56]

tue dec1st here 2.40 POWER SHARED stake £50

[mick56]

up date Tue DEC 1st Power shared won 4.66 stake £50 profit=£233

bank=£1180-50

don't no whether to laugh or cry over this one hills where offering 14-1 this morning and even allowing for a couple of rule 4 deductions i cocked up big time by placing my bet at betfair sp

[mick56]

thur dec 3 LEIC 3.35 QUINTE DU CHATLET stake £50

[mick56]

update thur dec 3 quinte du chatlet won 2.14 stake £50 profit = £107

bank = £1287.50

[MattR]

Nice couple of winners Mike :thumbs

[mick56]

:thumbs:thumbs:spinning
Nice couple of winners Mike :thumbs

thanks MattR there will unfortunately be plenty of losers as well !:spinning

[mick56]

fri dec 4th EXETER 3.20 MORE THE MERRIER stake £50

[mick56]

fri dec 4th update exeter 3.20 More the merrier N/R

BANK = £1287.50

[mick56]

sat dec 5th weth 1.40 SIR TANTALLUS HAWK
south 2.50 BENEDICT SPIRIT
sand 3.30 RUSSIAN TRIGGER


STAKE £50 ON EACH

[mick56]

update sat dec 5th

sir tantallus hawk N/R

benedict spirt L

russian trigger L


BANK = £1187-50

[mick56]

sun dec 6th

KELSO 1.20 NIRVANA SWING

LING 2.30 BILLY RED

WAR 3.10 MAGNETIC POLE

STAKE £50 ON EACH

[mick56]

update sun dec 6th 3 bets all lost -£150

bank= £1037.50

[mick56]

mon dec 7th LING 3.0 RED HOT DESERT stake £50

[mick56]

update mon dec 6th

lost -£50

bank=£987.50

[mick56]

tue dec 8th

SOUTHW 3.0 FIRST SWALLOW
FONTW 3.40 MINNIE HILL

STAKE £50 ON EACH

[mick56]

update tue dec 8th two bets both lost - £100

bank = £887.50

[mick56]

wen dec 9th LING 3.30 PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE stake £50

[mick56]

update wen dec 9th lost £50

bank= £837.50

[mick56]

thur dec 10th KEMP 6.0 FATHSTA stake £50

[bryn]

Good Luck with your selection today Mick.I am also on the same one:thumbs

[mick56]

Good Luck with your selection today Mick.I am also on the same one:thumbs

thanks mate at the moment i bloody well need it !

i suppose it is sods law but i have had a fairly good year . start this challenge and hit nine consecutive losers . oh bother:splapme

[bryn]

thanks mate at the moment i bloody well need it !

i suppose it is sods law but i have had a fairly good year . start this challenge and hit nine consecutive losers . oh bother:splapme

Take a few days off from betting, that sometimes helps for me.

[mick56]

update thur dec 10th FATHSTA WON but returned slight odds on so no bet


bank remains @ £837-50

[bryn]

Mick
Why do you not take early price with the firms that have "best odds guaranteed". There are quite a few of them these days. eg bet 365,VC,Hills,Ladbrokes,stan james,betinternet etc. If you go on "oddschecker" it lists them all.
Were here to help eachother

[mick56]

Mick
Why do you not take early price with the firms that have "best odds guaranteed". There are quite a few of them these days. eg bet 365,VC,Hills,Ladbrokes,stan james,betinternet etc. If you go on "oddschecker" it lists them all.
Were here to help eachother

Dear bryn thanks for your well meant advise and i certainly concur and like the idea that we are all here to help each other

I have placed my wagers exactly as you suggest above for the past few years but was getting fed up with being passed on to supervisors knocked back and generally being made to feel like a bit of a villain just because i took a few quid off them on balance.

This is why since nov1st i have been placing my wagers in the betfair sp market.Which so far has not prooved as profitable as bog prices but it is early days and at least i don't have to put up with the above nonscence

kindest regards mick

[mick56]

fri dec 11th CHELT 3.0 WOLF MOON

WOLV 9.20 DANCE THE STAR

Stake £50 on each

[mick56]

update fri dec 11th two bets both lost -£100
bank= £737.50

[bryn]

Mick it may be time to take that holiday now or do some papertrading untill you are back in form :headbange

[mick56]

Mick it may be time to take that holiday now or do some papertrading untill you are back in form :headbange

Dear bryn thanks for your support and advise i very much appreciate it.But i am going to keep going at present because i believe i will get through it.VERY CHARACTER BUILDING!.

no bet today (thank goodness!) best wishes

[mick56]

sun dec 13th HERE 3.10 STAR GALAXY stake £50

[mick56]

update sun dec 13th lost -£50

bank= £687.50

[mick56]

mon dec 14th PLUM 2.35 HELM stake £50

[mick56]

update mon dec14th helm N/R

[mick56]

wen dec 16th ling 2.10 FINAL VERSE stake £50

[mick56]

update wen 16th dec selection lost - £50

bank = £637.50

[mick56]

fri dec 18th south 3.15 JONNIE SKULL
wolv 7.50 ISTIQDAAM
wolv 8.50 EASTERN GIFT

stake £50 on each

[mick56]

update fri dec 18th one N/R two lost - £100

bank = £537.50

[mick56]

mon dec 21st ffos 2-10 THE JIGSAWMAN

kemp 3-05 SQUAD

stake £50 on each

[mick56]

update mon dec21st one N/R one lost = -£50

bank = £487.50

[mick56]

tue dec22nd south 12-55 IMPRIMIS TAGULA
2-55 PROFITS REALITY

stake £50 on each

[mick56]

update tue dec 22nd 1 lost and 1 winner @ 5.87 profit = £243-50

bank = £731

[mick56]

wen dec 30th southw 1.55 SUNNY SPELLS stake £50

[mick56]

tue dec 29th sunny spells L -£50

bank= £681

[mick56]

thur dec 31st War 3.20 POWER SHARED stake £50

[mick56]

update thur dec 31st L - £50

bank= £631

[mick56]

sun jan 3rd kem 2.35 ISTIQDAAM stake £50

[mick56]

update sun jan 3rd -£50

bank= £581

[mick56]

sat jan 9th ling 2-10 Fathsta

kem 2-55 Tiddiwinks stake £50 on each

[mick56]

update sat jan 9th 1 lost + won 1.43 profit = £21.50

bank = £602.50

[mick56]

sun 10th jan south 1.20 MR FUNSHINE stake £50

[mick56]

update sun 10th L -£50
BANK= £552.50

[mick56]

mon 11th jan Wolv 1.30 Diapason

4.30 Shake on it stake £50 on each

[mick56]

update mon 11th jan Diapason won but not counted odds on

shake on it 2nd @8.8 (oh bother!) -£50 :headbange

bank = £502.50

[bryn]

Very unlucky today Mick.I was also on "shake on it" on my back or lay system,and I was shouting for both of us::swear

[mick56]

Very unlucky today Mick.I was also on "shake on it" on my back or lay system,and I was shouting for both of us::swear

cheers bryn that sums up nicely all that is good about this forum :thumbs

[mick56]

tue jan 12th south 1.50 russian music 2.20 the love guru

stake £25 on each

PN as i have managed to reduce the bank by 50% ! i am reducing the stake by the same until hopefully i can rectify matters.

[mick56]

update tue jan12th one N/R plus won 1.08 profit= £27

bank= £529.50

[mick56]

wen jan 13th kemp 6.45 Seek the fair land stake £25

[mick56]

update wen 13th jan L -£25

bank=£504.50

[mick56]

thur jan 14th ling 3.0 Formidable guest wolv 6.40 Flowing cape

stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update thur14th jan 1 lost + won @ 5.89 profit = £122.25

bank= £626.75

[bryn]

update thur14th jan 1 lost + won @ 5.89 profit = £122.25

bank= £626.75

Well done Mick

[mick56]

Well done Mick

cheers bryn if the second one had not got done on the line it would have been a nice day,i belive i will get there eventually,but am taking an unexpected round about route to the final destination !.:thumbs

[mick56]

fri jan 15th south 2.15 Tealing stake £25

[mick56]

update fri 15th jan L -£25

bank = £601.75

[mick56]

sat jan 16th ling 2.40 Prince of sorrento stake £25

[mick56]

update sat 16th jan L-£25

bank= £576.75

[mick56]

tue 19th jan wolv 2.50 Divine force stake £25

[mick56]

update tue 19th jan sel won@ 3.95 profit= £98.75

bank= £675.50

[bryn]

Good result Mick well none:thumbs

[mick56]

Good result Mick well none:thumbs

cheers mate likewise with yours,although i am sure you will understand when i say at present my need is greater!

Virtually every month for the past few years from a limited number of bets i have managed at least one winner at a big price,which takes care of the losers,since starting this challenge two months ago they have so far evaded me,although i have come close on several occasions,i am begining to wonder if for me this challenge has become a jinks,or perhaps it is just sods law.still i will crack on may be they will all come at once that would be nice!.

[mick56]

wen 20th jan ling 3.05 Lovers causeway stake £25

PN this one unlikley to qual as bet, as fc 4/6,and EV the min exceptable price,but i have seen stranger things happen, so live in hope!.

[mick56]

update wen 20th jan sel won 1.12 profit= £28

bank= £703.50

[mick56]

sat 23rd jan ling 3.55 Bosamcliff stake £25

[mick56]

update sat jan 23rd sel lost -£25

bank= £678.50

[mick56]

mon 25th jan ling 1.25 Noun de la thinte wolv 4.40 Leyte gulf

stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update mon 25th jan 1L & W@ 2.14 profit =£28.50

bank = £707

[mick56]

tue 26th jan south 3.20 Trachonitis stake £25

[mick56]

update tue 26th jan sel lost -£25

bank= £682

[mick56]

wen 27th jan kemp 7.40 Lisahane bog stake £25

[mick56]

update wen 27th jan sel L -£25

bank=£657

[mick56]

thur 28th jan war 4.0 Noun de la thinte stake £25

[mick56]

update thur 28th jan sel L -£25

bank=£632

[mick56]

mon 1st feb wolv 3.50 tuscan king stake £25

[mick56]

update mon feb 1st sel lost

bank= £607

[mick56]

wen 3rd feb kemp 8.0 stanley rigby stake £25

[mick56]

update wen 3rd feb sel lost -£25

bank= £582

[mick56]

fri 5th feb wolv 5.05 grey command stake £25

[Street cry]

Hi Mick,
Just had alook through this race and yours looks a good bet for me the only question is the jockey but the is more than offset by the fact that the rest or the runners are a terrible bunch.

coolnaharan will need the run as always seems to be the case after a lay off
wavertree warrior rarely wins, has never ran at wolver , and has only won two aw outings from 33 attempts at 7 and 8f respectively

kings icon is marginally consistent under conditions but the weights are against him today

If there was an each way angle makintosh would be interesting ish off 53 over these conditions but with 7 runners that's a no no.

All considered i would definitely be with you on the fav good luck with it.

[mick56]

Cheers mate agree your analysis two minds with but one thought!.even little fish are sweet at present!!!.

[Street cry]

Yep this game don't get any easier does it ha ha ha ha ha ha

[mick56]

Yep this game don't get any easier does it ha ha ha ha ha ha

I sometimes feel that the more you think you no the harder it becomes!!!

[Street cry]

In all honesty Mick i think in the last 3 years this game has become very hard indeed , i believe the markets are far more efficient now than they have ever been hence why i don't actively partake and it is harder now than ever.

I still like to have a look ecery once in awhile and will start following the races you pick and see what i think just for an interest

[Godspot]

In all honesty Mick i think in the last 3 years this game has become very hard indeed ,

It's not just the racing either - yesterday, google chrome refused to load the racing Post website, so I 've had to switch again but it all steals your time....

but this race, your selection Mich was the only one to make my spreadsheet but I couldn't suggest a bet as too many unknowns, two Irish raiders & quite fancy Saving Grace as the EW but not enough runners like SC says, good luck anyway...

[mick56]

In all honesty Mick i think in the last 3 years this game has become very hard indeed , i believe the markets are far more efficient now than they have ever been hence why i don't actively partake and it is harder now than ever.

I still like to have a look ecery once in awhile and will start following the races you pick and see what i think just for an interest

HI street cry i think this game has always been hard but not impossible my avg figs for past 3 yrs stand up against my long term avg.but i have stagnated since joining this challenge at the end of Nov .although i bottled it and reduced stakes,the actually LSP lose at the displayed BFSP is 6.67pts.My personal bets which are a level stake on the same horses are showing for this period a loss of 5pts as i managed to beat the sp on a couple of the winners.so not really the end of the world but not good for the result of two and a half months work .there have been a few near misses at the bigger prices and just one of those would have made the difference.But i am considering suing mr win2win for jinksing me should make an interesting case!.

Seriously i look forward to you taking an interest and reading your views,this was what i hoped would happen when i started this thread although i expected the results to be far better,but feel that i can still turn it round. :thumbs

[Godspot]

& now what? I didn't put them links in - how did they get there?

But I was going to say too... regards the AW, I'm thinking of throwing the form book out the window...

I've been following horses with first time headgear of late on the AW & there was one, Poppy Gregg 50/1 2nd earlier today but I almost tipped Free Falling, think it Monday, 150/1 3rd, because of the short odds of the favourite, Aaman, it opened the door for an outsider at a decent price, I just didn't notice in time that one of the major players was a NR, otherwise I would've posted it up.

I think there is a lot more value to be had in trying to predict when a horse is about to show improved form and first time headgear seems an indicator, rather than taking short prices about things that are vulnerable to something less exposed..........

AAAAAAAAAAaRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH, thinking again!

[Godspot]

But I was going to say too... regards the AW, I'm thinking of throwing the form book out the window...

I've been following horses with first time headgear of late on the AW & there was one, Poppy Gregg 50/1 2nd earlier today but I almost tipped Free Falling, think it Monday, 150/1 3rd, because of the short odds of the favourite, Aaman, it opened the door for an outsider at a decent price, I just didn't notice in time that one of the major players was a NR, otherwise I would've posted it up.

There she blows again, New Den, 2nd @ 20/s, Visored first time.

& I bet one of them at least will win next time out but you'll be lucky to get 3/1 about any of them!

[mick56]

update fri 5th feb sel won 1.18 = +£29.50

bank = £611.50

[Street cry]

Well done Mick

[barrelmaniac]

Keep plugging away Mick, I find winners usually come in clusters, it wouldnt take much to get you back on track and into profit

[barrelmaniac]

It's not just the racing either - yesterday, google chrome refused to load the racing Post website, so I 've had to switch again but it all steals your time....

but this race, your selection Mich was the only one to make my spreadsheet but I couldn't suggest a bet as too many unknowns, two Irish raiders & quite fancy Saving Grace as the EW but not enough runners like SC says, good luck anyway...

Sorry Mick, I don't want to go off topic, but Godspot how do you find google chrome? better than firefox?

[mick56]

sat 6th feb weth 1.15 Shadrack stake £25

[Street cry]

Hi Mick ,
Royal Flynn here for me to place if i was to play in this which i wouldn't do personally.

The fav is solid enough and in asimilar vein to yesterdays selection has any question marks against him namely mark and jockey offset by the lack of strength in depth.

My angle is the catterick run where royal flynn was close enough to shadrack to warrant closer inspection off more favourable terms today.
I wont take the weights pull too literally but as royal flynn has actually got a reasonable place record with give in the ground and looks solid by comparison to most of these i'll take a place bet at 2/1.

Others of interest for me would be am i blue on handicap debut but couldn't really make asolid case good luck with shadrack !!!!!!

[mick56]

Good Morning SC Shadrack is what i term a default bet in that it is not so much the case i can build for him winning but rather the case against the opposition,it might be considered silly to say that in an 18rn hcap you cannot see a danger but in this instance that is my thought.

Understand your concern about raise in OR and 5lb claimer but i am hoping these will work for me in producing a better than fc price,my main concern is the going because although he has won on soft,i have formed the opinion from the limited available evidence that he might prove better on slightly faster ground,but i would not put that up as an excuse if he is beaten.

[Street cry]

I agree Mick i hope that the reason that this jock never won on shadrack from a good amount of opportunities is that the horse has improved in ability and not due to better recent jockey bookings.

This lot are poor Mick and i only really see the filly am i blue as a win danger as there are unponderables as to how good she may be in handicap company.

I do think that wherever the fav is royal flynn should not be far away and ordinarily i'd take an ew view at adble fig price but as this one has never won over obstacles it seems the win portion is a throwaway so place it would be lets see !!!!!!! and good luck with yours

[mick56]

update sat6th feb sel lost - £25

bank = £586.50

[mick56]

All right i have calmed down now,well done SC getting your place bet home,i was left feeling gutted,was calling mine the winner two out, and get done by one that has not run for two years and had no previous form.

The interesting thing to me about the winner is that bearing in mind the above i would have expected in this 18 rn hcap that he would have started at a much bigger bf and isp perhaps the win was not totally unexpected?.

Never mind i have got one under consideration for ling tomorrow, i sometimes think i should get a life, but you no even when things are going a bit tits up i bloody love this one!!!.

[Street cry]

Unlucky Mick i can't claim the place on mine as i didn't back it and wouldn't have done so, would simply have been my decision in the race you chose if i had a gun to my head.

I look forward to your next selection i am gonna keep a paper record of the ones i decide upon just for abit of fun as i don't back horses anymore but this is good fun with the interest of someone else cheers SC

[mick56]

sun 7th feb southw 1.40 Borasco stake £25


SC i have only two slight doutes concerning the above 1/ the extra fur

2/ the run just 3 days ago as he has never tried turning out this quickly before.

interested your opione on above.

[Street cry]

Hi Mick,
I agree that borasco has achance but surely wherever borasco is miss bootylishus will be very close based on the run the other day where only 2 lengths seperated them. Add to this the slightly more favourable weights for miss bootylishus and the fact she has won over course and distance 11/2 is alot nicer than the 7/2 for the fav.

There are dangers Mick General Tufto is a c+d winner who generally runs a solid enough race 4lb higher than last win here but consistent at least.

So to clarify the value for me is miss booty lishes at 11/2 with sportying bet or sky bet good luck as always Mick, SC

[mick56]

update sun 7th feb sel lost -£25

bank = £561.50

[mick56]

wen 10th feb ling 1.55 Officer in command stake £25

[Street cry]

Interested as to why this horse appeals to you today Mick for me the trip doesn't suit and the weights are not hugely kind either.

I would be against this one but an angle for it i can see is the prospect of being able to dictate terms form the 1 box against a field of what are essentially hold up horses.

I don't like the top of the market here and i would be inclined to look for a bit of value in black n brew at 7/1 who has good course and distance credentials including a recent win
off 72. A pound higher today seems fair and i don't think the break will be too detremenatal to his chances.

I also like the Fahey filly laureldeans best but not enough form to warrant consideration.

My concerns for this race are that it may turn in to a sprint off the turn as we are a bit short on prominent runners, that could bode well for your horse getting the trip Mick but i don't like it's chances and think 4/1 is very skinny but best of luck all the same SC

[barrelmaniac]

well done mick.

[mick56]

update wen 10th feb sel won 3.40 profit £85

bank = £646.50

cheers BM shame it closed i got on >5

[Street cry]

Wll done Mick good stuff :thumbs

[mick56]

thur 11th feb hunt 2.40 Pelo du bief stake £25

[mick56]

update thur 11th feb sel lost -£25

bank = £621.50

[mick56]

sat 13th feb newb 3.05 Mamlook ayr 3.50 Witherspoon stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update sat 13th feb both sel lost -£50

bank = £571.50

[mick56]

sun 14th feb here 5.0 Letham island stake £25

[mick56]

update sun 14th feb sel lost -£25

bank = £546.50

[mick56]

mon 15th feb wolv 5.40 Pipers piping stake £25

[mick56]

update mon 15th feb sel won 3.28 profit = + £82

bank= £628.50

[barrelmaniac]

well done mick, I had pipers piping too, but unfortunately that was my only winner in a busy days racing.

[mick56]

well done mick, I had pipers piping too, but unfortunately that was my only winner in a busy days racing.

cheers BM every little helps at present

[bryn]

update mon 15th feb sel won 3.28 profit = + £82

bank= £628.50

Good shot Mick
Well done:thumbs

[mick56]

tue 16th feb southw 4.0 Nightjar stake £25

[mick56]

Good shot Mick
Well done:thumbs

cheers mate,and good fortune to you today

[mick56]

update tue 16th feb sel lost -£25

bank = £603.50

[mick56]

thur 18th feb sothw 4.05 Wheres reiley stake £25

[mick56]

update thur 18th feb sel won 5.13 profit= £128.25

bank= £731.75

[barrelmaniac]

update thur 18th feb sel won 5.13 profit= £128.25

bank= £731.75


onwards and upwards mick.

[mick56]

onwards and upwards mick.

cheers BM

[mick56]

sat 20th feb ling 3.55 Hazard County ascot 4.20 PanjoBere

Hayd 4.45 Suntini (still a chance meeting could be aband ) stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update sat 20th feb 2 lost & 1 won lose on day -£10.50

Bank = £721.25

[barrelmaniac]

Mick, What kind of strike rate are you currently achieving?

[mick56]

Mick, What kind of strike rate are you currently achieving?

This month to date 31% ,avg for past 8 yrs 27% but avg since starting this challenge end of last NOV will be down so far as i suffered the worst results i have had for several years in Dec.

[mick56]

mon 22nd feb ling 3.30 Halsion chancer stake £25

[mick56]

update mon 22nd feb sel lost -£25

bank= £696.25

[barrelmaniac]

Hard luck mick, I had Halsion chancer too on one of my systems, but it turned out I had made a mistake and it should have been a no bet,

Mick, do you limit your bets to only 1 or 2 a day or is it just how many that stand out for you in any given day?

[mick56]

Mick, do you limit your bets to only 1 or 2 a day or is it just how many that stand out for you in any given day?

Hi BM could i ask you to view the thread MULTIPLES in systems cat cheers

[mick56]

sat feb 27th chep 3.30 Hopeful start stake £25

[mick56]

update sat feb 27th sel won 7.24 profit= £181

bank= £877.25

[mick56]

mon 1st march here 2.30 Keep Holdin Plum 3.50 Calzaghe wolv 5.40 Saddlers Bend stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update mon 1st feb 3 bets 2 won @ net 4.09 and 1.23 profit = £108

bank = £985.25

[bryn]

Well done Mick

[mick56]

Well done Mick

cheers mate getting there.

[mick56]

tue 2nd mar Leic 2.50 Omix DOr stake £25

[mick56]

update tue 2nd mar sel lost -£25

bank= £960.25

[mick56]

wen 3rd mar folk 3.10 Normandy landings wolv 4.30 Motarjm

stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update wen 3rd mar both lost -£50

bank = £910.25

[mick56]

thur 4th mar wolv 6.50 Wetherby place 8.20 Saddlers bend stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update thur 4th mar both lost but one no bet odds on - £25

bank = £885.25

[mick56]

fri 5th mar Newb 4.30 Maraafeq stake £25

[mick56]

update fri 5th mar sel won 1.5 profit = £ 37.50

Bank = £922.75

[mick56]

sat 6th mar newb 2.05 Henry King stake £25

[mick56]

update sat 6th mar sel lost - £25

bank = £ 897.75

[mick56]

sun 7th mar hunt 3.10 Noakarad De Vervee stake £25

[mick56]

update sun 7th mar sel won 2.81 profit = £70.25 very disappointing sp

bank = £ 968

[barrelmaniac]

Keep it going Mick, your pulling it all back quite nicely, hopefully we will see you in profit soon.

[mick56]

Cheers BM appreciate it,it was not until after i had started this challenge Nov27th that i realised how stressful it can be going public with your selections.
The horses i put up here are the ones i back with my own money,and it can be bad enough living with your own mistakes without sharing them with other people.

The biggest error i made was to give myself only 20 chances at the start ( £50 ) because i work from a 50pts bank ,which in fact this year i have increased to 100pts.So when last DEC i hit the losing run ,i bottled it and reduced the stake by 50% which of course slowed the recovery.

For me the above is a case of lesson learnt, and now i am almost back to par, in future the staking increase will be more cautious.I think i may still complete the journey but via a longer route than originally anticipated.!!!.

It can be a lonely bussiness at the best of times and the suppourt and encouragement recived from members has been a great help during this difficult time, thank you.

[barrelmaniac]

I forgot that you had lowered the stakes, so all in all you have done much better than the final result shows so congrats for that. However I still dont think that it was a mistake to lower the stakes, Im a great believer that slow and steady can win the race with betting.

[mick56]

fri 12th mar lei 4.50 Captain Smoothy stake £25

[mick56]

update fri 12th mar sel lost -£25

bank = £943

[mick56]

sun 14th mar mark 2.10 Ban Unise stake £25

[mick56]

update sun 14th mar sel lost - £25

bank = £918

[barrelmaniac]

Unlucky mick, I had that horse as well today.

[mick56]

Hi BM,yes a most frustrating week, a lot of work to come up with just two selections both short prices and both losers.Never mind my day will come.

At this half way point of the month i am 1.68 pts up,and from what i have been reading on daily waffle i should be grateful for that!,it seems that some members are getting a hammering so far this month,but it has only been in the last few days that the weather has evened out and there is plenty of good racing to come.So i wish you, myself and all other members good fortune for the second half of the month.

[mick56]

tue 16th mar Chelt 2.40 Ogee stake £25

[barrelmaniac]

Good luck mick, I always follow your selections with great interest.

[mick56]

Cheers BM it will be sweet if this one obliges i backed him yesturday @ 16/1.

[mick56]

update tue 16th mar sel lost -£25

bank = £ 893

[neilb7]

it looked promising for a while Mick...
i had it aswell :headbange

[barrelmaniac]

It was a big field of runners, even though it won't do anything for your heart you can take heart from finishing in the places

[mick56]

yes guys no complaints,although the bfsp was dissapointing.

[mick56]

sat 20th mar ffos 4.15 Wheels up uttox 5.0 Porta vogie stake £25 on each

[bryn]

Good luck today Mick

[mick56]

cheers bryn and likewise,already piddled off N/R have decimated prices in both races!.

[mick56]

update sat 20th mar both sel lost -£50

bank = £843

[barrelmaniac]

Unlucky today Mick, not very close, but none of us can get it right everytime. Its all about long term so keep going and Im sure you will start making progress soon.

[mick56]

cheers BM today was bad luck and bad judgement i should not have let the bets stand after the going changed.But i seem to be cursed with simular since starting this challenge,good job i am not superstitious.Never mind got a better priced one for tomorrow.

[mick56]

sun 21st mar n.abbot 2.50 The Apprentice stake £25

NOW N/R

[mick56]

mon 22nd mar wolv 5.50 Rabbit Fighter stake £25

[mick56]

update mon 22nd mar sel lost -£25

bank = £818

[barrelmaniac]

Rabbit fighter drifted quite a lot before the off before being brought back down with the sp calculation, so maybe his behavoir just before the off was not too great, I was watching the numbers with interest as I also had a selection in that race... which also lost.

[mick56]

Hi BM i dont normally talk through my pocket, but there where a couple of aspects concerning the run of that horse to day that concerned me.

Never mind today i became Metal Mickey and nothing can take the rub off of that.

[mick56]

wen 24th mar hay 3.50 Lease lend stake £25

[mick56]

update wen 24th mar sel won 4.56 profit = £114

bank = £932

[neilb7]

Nice one Mick :thumbs

[mick56]

cheers neilb, i have been really unfortunate this month with going changes effecting the chance of several selections i put up,do not want to start messing about cancelling sel,and although this horse had won a bumper on heavy ground,i did think the same might occur to day. Fortunately i was wrong bless its little heart.

[barrelmaniac]

Getting there mick.

[mick56]

mon 29th mar Wolver 3.20 Mr Hichens stake £25

[mick56]

update mon29th mar sel lost - £25

bank = £907

[mick56]

sun 4th april plum 3.30 Petito stake £25

[mick56]

update sun 4th april sel lost - £25

bank= £882

[mick56]

mon 5th april fak 3.50 Herald angel plum 4.50 Beau lake stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update mon 5th april both sel lost -£50

bank = £832

[mick56]

tue 6th april weth 3.55 Award winner stake £25 SEL NOW N/R

[mick56]

thur 8th april taut 5.55 Earcomesthedream stake £25

[barrelmaniac]

thur 8th april taut 5.55 Earcomesthedream stake £25


I see where you are coming from on that race, Chaim is carrying a lot more weight so I wouldn't be surprised if he is beaten

[mick56]

Hi BM the press appear dismissive of my sel because of 7lb penalty but ridden by a good claimer + the recent improvement via blinkers could off set this current BOG 7/1 represents decent value.

[mick56]

update thur 8th april sel lost -£25

bank = £807

[mick56]

sat 10th april aint 3.25 Carlitos stake £25

[mick56]

update sat 10th april sel lost - £25

bank = £ 782

[mick56]

tue 13th april Yarm 4.30 Hollow green stake £25

[mick56]

update tue 13th sel lost -£25

bank = £757

[mick56]

fri 16th april Ayr 3.25 Chaninbar Thir 4.15 Sirenuse stake £25 on each

[mick56]

update 16/4 both sel lost -£50

bank = £707

[mick56]

18/4 Winc 3.20 The Brimmer .... strat 4.05 Manele bay.... stake £25 on each.

PN The Brimmer is NOW NR

[mick56]

18/4 sel lost

bank = £682

[mick56]

19/4 plum 4.20 Littleton aldor

pont 3.40 Born to perform
pont 4.40 Brushing
pont 5.15 Daredevil dan

stake £25 on each

[mick56]

A horrible day all 4 sel lost - £100

bank = £582

[mick56]

20/4 Folk 4.05 Oscar close
Towc 6.55 Zizou
stake £25 on each

[barrelmaniac]

You're up early Mick, Good luck for today.

[mick56]

You're up early Mick, Good luck for today.cheers mate need it.A long night holding post mortem RI yesturday but over it now.Best of luck with your bets today.

[mick56]

20/4 both sel lost -£50

bank = £532

[mick56]

22/4 perth 4.55 Quartz de thaix

uttox 5.35 My matilda

stake £25 on each.

[mick56]

update 22/4 one fell and the other won 3.45 profit = £61.25

bank = £593.25

[mick56]

23/4 Chep 6.45 Fourpointone
Bang 8.15 Bally simon N/R

stake £25 on each

[mick56]

23/4 sel lost - £25

bank = £568.25

[mick56]

26/4 Newc 3.10 Nimue
Ffos 7.0 Herons well

stake £25 on each

[barrelmaniac]

Unlucky on the first Mick, Still one to go though.

[mick56]

Hi BM thats the way of it at present i had one other under serious consideration for today ,and because things have not gone well this month decided 3 was to many,and yes it won, Basoda paying > 25/1 net at BF SP !!.Not only would that have sorted things nicely,but i have not had a winner of this price for years.

[mick56]

26/4 both sel lost -£50

bank = £518.25

[mick56]

27/4 winc 4.20 Jenny potts

nott 6.05 Desert strike


stake £25 on each

[barrelmaniac]

Unlucky with the other selection yesterday Mick, the tide has got to turn soon, shame about that 25-1 winner that you sat on the fence with, Its the case that recently most of us are suffering a bit this year but things can turn around when you least expect them to.

[mick56]

Cheers BM have got over it now,sods law and some!.i am undertaking a complete review of my strategy and even staking,because i am not happy with results for the past few months.It could be a long over due negative correction,but i am inclined to think something else is responsible,although at present i do not no what that might be.

[mick56]

27/4 both sel lost -£50

bank = £468.25

[barrelmaniac]

Don't get disheartened Mick, these losing streaks happen to everyone occasionally. No-one can win them all, and so losing streaks are just part of the game through chances and probabilities. It doesn't mean that you might be doing things wrong, method bets are also down to a certain amount of luck (which it appears you have been lacking lately) as are system bets, and as long as there are no long term change in trends luck should average out in the end

[mick56]

Thanks BM your above ,good advice and much appreciated.Its certainly a testing period,but i do belive i will sort it,unfortunately its taking longer than i anticipated.

[bryn]

Hi Mick
Are you placing real money on these selections or is it only mythical? You might be placing too much percentage of your bank on these selections. Had you be doing 2% to 3% of your bank things would not be looking so bad, and on the other hand if they would have been successful your bets would be bigger in sinc with the size of your bank. Keep your head up mate we all experience loosing runs.

[mick56]

Hi bryn,yes these are the only bets i have,my own stake is a level £400 on each,even now YTD i am only 2pts down so it is not a disaster.I work from 100pts bank,but with regards the challenge i did not allow myself enough chances at the start, lesson learnt there.
But to be fair to myself i had not experianced a run like this for many years,and that is yet another lesson to be taken on board.These results are now begining to niggle away at my confidence,and if they continue i think i will take a break and just paper proof for a while,or reduce my stake, but hopefully it will not come to that.
I have made a lot of money from the past few years,but it has been via the same approach and that is the factor that is of most concern.I am a great beliver that in racing you learn from your mistakes,but at present i cannot see the mistakes.

[mick56]

28/4 Pont 4.40 Beat the rush

stake £25

[barrelmaniac]

Hi bryn,yes these are the only bets i have,my own stake is a level £400 on each,even now YTD i am only 2pts down so it is not a disaster.I work from 100pts bank,but with regards the challenge i did not allow myself enough chances at the start, lesson learnt there.
But to be fair to myself i had not experianced a run like this for many years,and that is yet another lesson to be taken on board.These results are now begining to niggle away at my confidence,and if they continue i think i will take a break and just paper proof for a while,or reduce my stake, but hopefully it will not come to that.
I have made a lot of money from the past few years,but it has been via the same approach and that is the factor that is of most concern.I am a great beliver that in racing you learn from your mistakes,but at present i cannot see the mistakes.


£400 is quite a lot to stake with relatively few selections in the way that it doesnt leave much of a safety net in the event of long losing runs, but its obviously worked for you in the past, but it might be time to think a bit more conservatively on staking????? But of course its completely dependent on what kind of figures that you are comfortable with.

* of course its dependent on strike rate ROI and all that too, but being comfortable with what you are doing is the main thing

[mick56]

Hi BM,this is my first year on £400 unit and i am comfortable with this size of wager.I started several years ago with a 2k bank and £50 unit and have gradually been able to reinvest from profits accrued.
I have often wished that i could achieve turnover via more bets and a lower stake,but for me this is not something i feel comfortable with.
My way of looking at capital deployment is to attempt max gain with min risk to starting bank,on an annual basis.This has worked very well for me in the past,in fact still is because dispite this abysmal run i am only 2pts down ytd,so 98% of my starting bank is still secure.
Basically during the past 5 months i have had to bite the bullet in ways which i did not really anticipate,but staking wise did allow for.As i posted yesturday i will probably give it another month,if things do not improve i will then consider reducing stake by 50% or stopping completely and just paper proofing for a couple of months.
It is so strange the way things develop in racing,for at a time when i need quality not quantity i have identified 5 serious possibles for tomorrow !.

[barrelmaniac]

Hi BM,this is my first year on £400 unit and i am comfortable with this size of wager.I started several years ago with a 2k bank and £50 unit and have gradually been able to reinvest from profits accrued.
I have often wished that i could achieve turnover via more bets and a lower stake,but for me this is not something i feel comfortable with.
My way of looking at capital deployment is to attempt max gain with min risk to starting bank,on an annual basis.This has worked very well for me in the past,in fact still is because dispite this abysmal run i am only 2pts down ytd,so 98% of my starting bank is still secure.
Basically during the past 5 months i have had to bite the bullet in ways which i did not really anticipate,but staking wise did allow for.As i posted yesturday i will probably give it another month,if things do not improve i will then consider reducing stake by 50% or stopping completely and just paper proofing for a couple of months.
It is so strange the way things develop in racing,for at a time when i need quality not quantity i have identified 5 serious possibles for tomorrow !.

but thats 5 opportunities to win, Sometimes I have days with more bets that makes me a bit nervous, but to reduce this means a case of deciding which ones to leave out so especially for me being a system better its just a case of going with the flow and accepting that 'on average' im comfortable doing what Im doing, so these daily blips don't bother me as much as they used to.

Now that you have explained in slightly more depth what you are doing, it appears that you know exactly what you are doing and the risks, so once again I will wish you luck both in the short term and long term, and lets hope it wont come to the point where you will need to paper bet or reduce the stake by too much. A few wins an this 'wobble' could soon be forgotten, its amazing how short our memories can be sometimes.

[mick56]

Hi BM theres nothing i can add to your above except thanks.