value trends

[mick56]

I find it interesting to note the changing trends in horse race betting for instance up until about a year ago the majority of the racing press writers and those professional backers who appeared to seek publicity where in the main advocating staying away from favorites along the lines of "you follow the crowd you get no edge"

Recently from what i have read many are now advocating wagering at the front end of the market. personally up until two years ago i would not back any selection at less than 9-4.But as the years went by and i was able to increase my stake i found that although i enjoyed the extra profits the stress of runs of consecutive losers was really getting to me (even when they were being paid for out of profits already accrued on the year)

So two years ago after a lengthy period of paper proofing i started to include backing the selections in the ev to 2-1 price range (i still cannot bring my self to ,back at odds on).With two years results behind me the interesting facts are that although the annual roi is down,it has reduced the length of the losing runs and at present i feel because of this it will be worth continuing

I appreciate that members are going to have different opinions on the above so please don't cane me guys! .but i would be interested in reading your views

[mathare]

the majority of the racing press writers and those professional backers who appeared to seek publicity where in the main advocating staying away from favorites along the lines of "you follow the crowd you get no edge"I still think piece of advice holds true. The more the average Joe Punter gets in on a selection then the shorter in price it will get as the bookies look to limit their liabilities on it. People see it steaming and try to get on before all the value has gone. Was there value there in the first place? At what point did that value disappear? (ie what are the true odds of this selection winning?) If you're just following the crowd you will never be on at the biggest price because you are waiting to see what the masses do so you have already reduced your possible edge. You do need to swim upstream to some degree to maintain an edge.


Recently from what i have read many are now advocating wagering at the front end of the market.There have been many studies done on UK horse racing that show the presence of a favourite-longshot pricing bias. The return for blindly backing short priced selections is greater than that for backing longshots. The bookies' margins are greater on the long prices than they are at the front of the market. That said, unless you are backing at very heavy odds on none of these returns are greater than the amount invested so it's not a profitable strategy but you lose less backing favourites, generally speaking.

Two conflicting views? Perhaps but it depends what your strategy is. If you're a blind backer than go for favs but if you're putting some thought into your punting perhaps you need to look further down the field for value too. The margins may be greater on a 20/1 shot but if, in your eyes, it should be 10/1 then you have an excellent bet regardless of the margin.

[mick56]

Thanks mathare as usual an interesting reply :thumbs