MarcusMel 1000 Restart

[MarcusMel]

This is more of a systems idea test. I have been looking at football and tennis and now I am going to test the info gain from the figures.

Away bets 10
Home bet 6
Draw bet 3

A Home bet always comes with a Draw bet. (edit forget this as not profitable enough)
Betfair prices
17Dec09-18:00-Genoa v (Valencia) 10@2.62
17Dec09-18:00-Hapoel Tel Aviv v (Hamburg) 10@ (10@2.62)2.42
17Dec09-18:00-Rapid Vienna v (Celtic) 10@ (10@2.62)4.10
17Dec09-20:05-Steaua Bucharest v (Twente) 10@ (10@2.62)2.00
17Dec09-18:00-Ajax v (Anderlecht) 10@ (10@2.62)5.00
17Dec09-20:05-(Fenerbahce) v FC Sheriff 6@1.78 3@4.00
17Dec09-20:05-(Villarreal) v Salzburg 6@1.66 3@4.10
17Dec09-20:05-(Everton) v BATE Borisov 6@1.85 3@3.65

Total bet cost £77 bracket indicate team bet on.
Hoping time permits me to keep this up-to-date

[MarcusMel]

17Dec09-18:00-Genoa v (Valencia) 10@2.62 (10@2.62) 1-2 won 15.39
17Dec09-18:00-Hapoel Tel Aviv v (Hamburg) 10@ (10@2.62)2.42 1-0 lost -10
17Dec09-18:00-Rapid Vienna v (Celtic) 10@ (10@2.62)4.10 lost 3-3 -10
17Dec09-20:05-Steaua Bucharest v (Twente) 10@ (10@2.62)2.00 1-1 -10
17Dec09-18:00-Ajax v (Anderlecht) 10@ (10@2.62)5.00 1-3 won 38
17Dec09-20:05-(Fenerbahce) v FC Sheriff 6@1.78 (6@1.78) 3@4.00 (3@4.00) 1-0 won 1.59
17Dec09-20:05-(Villarreal) v Salzburg 6@1.66 (6@1.66) 3@4.10 (3@4.10) 0-1 lost -9
17Dec09-20:05-(Everton) v BATE Borisov 6@1.85 (6@1.85) 3@3.65 (3@3.65) 0-1 lost -9

PL Today +16.98
PL To Date +16.98

[MarcusMel]

18-Dec-09 17:00 Rott-Weiss Ahlen v Energie Cottbus German Bundesliga 2 A 2.26
18-Dec-09 19:00 Ajaccio v Nantes French Ligue 2 A 2.96
18-Dec-09 19:30 Angers v Metz French Ligue 2 A 2.78
18-Dec-09 18:00 Ascoli v Padova Italian Serie B A 3.75
18-Dec-09 20:00 Cesena v Lecce Italian Serie B A 3.05
18-Dec-09 19:30 Clermont v Le Havre French Ligue 2 A 3.1
18-Dec-09 19:00 Emmen v Maastricht Dutch Jupiler League A 2.16
18-Dec-09 19:00 FC Eindhoven v TOP Oss Dutch Jupiler League A 4.4
18-Dec-09 19:45 Grimsby v Morecambe English League 2 A 2.1
18-Dec-09 17:00 Koblenz v FSV Frankfurt German Bundesliga 2 A 3.55
18-Dec-09 20:15 Pacos Ferreira v Braga Portuguese Super Liga A 1.98
18-Dec-09 19:00 RBC Roosendaal v Dordrecht Dutch Jupiler League A 2.38
18-Dec-09 19:30 Strasbourg v Guingamp French Ligue 2 A 3.5
18-Dec-09 19:00 AGOVV Apeldoorn v Fortuna Sittard Dutch Jupiler League H 1.66 4.2
18-Dec-09 19:00 Arles v Chateauroux French Ligue 2 H 2.12 3.25
18-Dec-09 19:00 Brest v Nimes French Ligue 2 H 1.86 3.45
18-Dec-09 19:30 Caen v Laval French Ligue 2 H 1.74 3.65
18-Dec-09 19:00 De Graafschap v Zwolle Dutch Jupiler League H 1.67 4
18-Dec-09 19:00 Den Bosch v Omniworld Dutch Jupiler League H 1.55 4.5
18-Dec-09 17:00 Duisburg v Aachen German Bundesliga 2 H 2.04 3.6
18-Dec-09 19:45 Heracles v VVV Venlo Dutch Eredivisie H 2.02 3.8
18-Dec-09 19:45 Hereford v Lincoln English League 2 H 1.93 3.85
18-Dec-09 19:30 Prestatyn v The New Saints Welsh Premier League H 4.9 3.85
18-Dec-09 19:00 Sedan v Dijon French Ligue 2 H 2.04 3.3
18-Dec-09 19:00 Vannes v Bastia French Ligue 2 H 1.98 3.45

hope bets are clear

[MattR]

Nice start and a great one with Anderlecht, Marcus :thumbs

[MarcusMel]

Thanks Mat - but the choices are based on a data source and a simple formula that decides whether to bet Away or Home or Draw. Still working on the Home and Draw decision.

[MarcusMel]

18-Dec-09 17:00 Rott-Weiss Ahlen v Energie Cottbus German Bundesliga 2 A 2.26 Won 11.97
18-Dec-09 19:00 Ajaccio v Nantes French Ligue 2 A 2.96 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 19:30 Angers v Metz French Ligue 2 A 2.78 P
18-Dec-09 18:00 Ascoli v Padova Italian Serie B A 3.75 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 20:00 Cesena v Lecce Italian Serie B A 3.05 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 19:30 Clermont v Le Havre French Ligue 2 A 3.1 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 19:00 Emmen v Maastricht Dutch Jupiler League A 2.16 P
18-Dec-09 19:00 FC Eindhoven v TOP Oss Dutch Jupiler League A 4.4 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 19:45 Grimsby v Morecambe English League 2 A 2.1 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 17:00 Koblenz v FSV Frankfurt German Bundesliga 2 A 3.55 Won 24.23
18-Dec-09 20:15 Pacos Ferreira v Braga Portuguese Super Liga A 1.98 Won 9.31
18-Dec-09 19:00 RBC Roosendaal v Dordrecht Dutch Jupiler League A 2.38 P
18-Dec-09 19:30 Strasbourg v Guingamp French Ligue 2 A 3.5 Lost -10
18-Dec-09 19:00 AGOVV Apeldoorn v Fortuna Sittard Dutch Jupiler League H 1.66 4.2 Won 0.76
18-Dec-09 19:00 Arles v Chateauroux French Ligue 2 H 2.12 3.25 Won 3.38
18-Dec-09 19:00 Brest v Nimes French Ligue 2 H 1.86 3.45 Won 1.9
18-Dec-09 19:30 Caen v Laval French Ligue 2 H 1.74 3.65 Draw 1.55
18-Dec-09 19:00 De Graafschap v Zwolle Dutch Jupiler League H 1.67 4 Lost -9
18-Dec-09 19:00 Den Bosch v Omniworld Dutch Jupiler League H 1.55 4.5 P
18-Dec-09 17:00 Duisburg v Aachen German Bundesliga 2 H 2.04 3.6 Lost -9
18-Dec-09 19:45 Heracles v VVV Venlo Dutch Eredivisie H 2.02 3.8 Won 2.81
18-Dec-09 19:45 Hereford v Lincoln English League 2 H 1.93 3.85 P
18-Dec-09 19:30 Prestatyn v The New Saints Welsh Premier League H 4.9 3.85 Lost -9
18-Dec-09 19:00 Sedan v Dijon French Ligue 2 H 2.04 3.3 Won 2.93
18-Dec-09 19:00 Vannes v Bastia French Ligue 2 H 1.98 3.45 Won 2.59

PL Today -35.57
PL To Date -18.59

Dropping the Home Draw system

[MarcusMel]

Early start matches
20-Dec-09 11:00 Real Sociedad v Real Betis, Spanish Segunda A 3.3
20-Dec-09 11:15 Oliveirense v Feirense,Portuguese Liga De A 2.86
20-Dec-09 11:30 NEC Nijmegen v Vitesse,Dutch Eredivisie A 3.6

[MarcusMel]

20-Dec-09 11:00 Real Sociedad v Real Betis, Spanish Segunda A 3.3 -10
20-Dec-09 11:15 Oliveirense v Feirense,Portuguese Liga De A 2.86 -10
20-Dec-09 11:30 NEC Nijmegen v Vitesse,Dutch Eredivisie A 3.6 postponed

PL To Date -38.59

With more data the observation remains the same but some changes to formula choices. Now have a more distinct Home, Away and Draw pattern to use.
£10 bet on each of the following.

22-Dec-09 15:30 Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor Turkish Kupasi, A 3.45
22-Dec-09 19:30 Arles v Sedan French Ligue 2, H 2.26
22-Dec-09 19:00 Baronie v Sparta Belgian Cup , H 9.4
22-Dec-09 19:00 Bastia v Tours French Ligue 2, H 3.05
22-Dec-09 19:00 Chateauroux v Ajaccio French Ligue 2, H 2.3
22-Dec-09 19:00 Dijon v Brest French Ligue 2, H 2.78
22-Dec-09 19:45 Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar Dutch KNVB Cup, A 3.55
22-Dec-09 19:45 Gent v Germinal Beerschot , H 2
22-Dec-09 19:00 Guingamp v Clermont French Ligue 2, D 3.2
22-Dec-09 19:00 Laval v Vannes French Ligue 2, H 2.12
22-Dec-09 19:30 Le Havre v Strasbourg French Ligue 2, D 3.45
22-Dec-09 18:30 Manisaspor v Besiktas Turkish Kupasi, A 3.7
22-Dec-09 19:30 Nantes v Angers French Ligue 2, D 3.45
22-Dec-09 19:00 Nimes v Istres French Ligue 2, D 3.4

[MarcusMel]

22-Dec-09 15:30 Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor Turkish Kupasi, A 3.45 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:30 Arles v Sedan French Ligue 2, H 2.26 Postponed
22-Dec-09 19:00 Baronie v Sparta Belgian Cup , H 9.4 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:00 Bastia v Tours French Ligue 2, H 3.05 Won 20.50
22-Dec-09 19:00 Chateauroux v Ajaccio French Ligue 2, H 2.3 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:00 Dijon v Brest French Ligue 2, H 2.78 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:45 Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar Dutch KNVB Cup, A 3.55 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:45 Gent v Germinal Beerschot , H 2 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:00 Guingamp v Clermont French Ligue 2, D 3.2 Won 22.00
22-Dec-09 19:00 Laval v Vannes French Ligue 2, H 2.12 Won 11.20
22-Dec-09 19:30 Le Havre v Strasbourg French Ligue 2, D 3.45 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 18:30 Manisaspor v Besiktas Turkish Kupasi, A 3.7 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:30 Nantes v Angers French Ligue 2, D 3.45 Lost -10
22-Dec-09 19:00 Nimes v Istres French Ligue 2, D 3.4 Lost -10
PL for above 53-100 =-47 (not bothering with BF commission today)
PL To Date -85.59

29-Dec-09 19:45 Linfield v Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier Draw @ 4.1
29-Dec-09 19:45 Lisburn Distillery v Glenavon Northern Ireland Premier Draw @ 3.7
29-Dec-09 19:45 Newry v Institute Northern Ireland Premier Away @ 3.5
29-Dec-09 19:45 Portadown v Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier Home @ 3.75
29-Dec-09 17:45 Genk v Sint Truiden Belgian Jupiler League Draw @ 3.85
29-Dec-09 19:45 Cercle Brugge v Standard Liege A Belgian Jupiler League 2.2

[MarcusMel]

N. Ireland games postponed
29-Dec-09 17:45 Genk v Sint Truiden Belgian Jupiler League Draw @ 3.85 Won 27.07
09 19:45 Cercle Brugge v Standard Liege A Belgian Jupiler League 2.2 Lost -10

PL Today 17.07
PL To Date -58.51

[MarcusMel]

30-Dec-09 19:45 Portsmouth v Arsenal English Premier League D @ 4.4
30-Dec-09 19:45 Hearts v Motherwell Scottish Premier League D @ 3.55
30-Dec-09 17:00 Kortrijk v Club Brugge Belgian Jupiler League A @ 2.08
30-Dec-09 19:30 Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem Belgian Jupiler League H @ 1.46
30-Dec-09 19:30 KV Mechelen v Charleroi Belgian Jupiler League D @ 3.35
30-Dec-09 19:30 Lokeren v Germinal Beerschot Belgian Jupiler League A @ 2.6
30-Dec-09 19:30 Roeselare v Gent Belgian Jupiler League D @ 4.3

[MarcusMel]

30-Dec-09 19:45 Portsmouth v Arsenal English Premier League D @ 4.4 Lost -10
30-Dec-09 19:45 Hearts v Motherwell Scottish Premier League D @ 3.55 Lost -10
30-Dec-09 17:00 Kortrijk v Club Brugge Belgian Jupiler League A @ 2.08 Win 10.26
30-Dec-09 19:30 Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem Belgian Jupiler League H @ 1.46 Win 4.37
30-Dec-09 19:30 KV Mechelen v Charleroi Belgian Jupiler League D @ 3.35 Lost -10
30-Dec-09 19:30 Lokeren v Germinal Beerschot Belgian Jupiler League A @ 2.6 Win 15.20
30-Dec-09 19:30 Roeselare v Gent Belgian Jupiler League D @ 4.3 Lost -10
PL for Day -10.17
PL To Date -68.68

Tennis
31 Dec 09 11:00 David Ferrer v Nikolay Davydenko - Bet Nikolay Davydenko @ 1.31
31 Dec 09 12:00 Robin Soderling v Stanislas Wawrinka Bet Robin Soderling @ 1.41

[MarcusMel]

Tennis
31 Dec 09 11:00 David Ferrer v Nikolay Davydenko - Bet Nikolay Davydenko @ 1.31 Lost -10
31 Dec 09 12:00 Robin Soderling v Stanislas Wawrinka Bet Robin Soderling @ 1.41 Won 3.90

PL For day -6.10
PL To Date -74.78

[MarcusMel]

The following Minimum price not met but if reached during match play then to be considered in P/L
Haase v Yang Bet-Robin Haase 1.4 Matched and Won +3.80
Hernandez v Seppi Bet-Andreas Seppi 1.4 Matched and Won +3.80
Ventura v Berrer Bet-Michael Berrer 1.4 Matched and Won +3.80

Matched Bets follow.
Sorensen v Robert Bet-Stephane Robert 1.47 Won +4.47
Granollers v Ward Bet-Marcel Granollers 1.44 Won +4.18

Australia Tennis bets
Razzano v Niculescu Bet-Virginie Razzano 1.45 Won +4.28
Levy v Bellucci Bet-Thomaz Bellucci 1.46 Won +4.37
Serra v Reister Bet-Florent Serra 1.47 Won +4.47
Fish v Baghdatis Bet-Marcos Baghdatis 1.43 Won +4.09
Dent v Monfils Bet-Gael Monfils 1.31 Won +2.95
Peer v Hercog Bet-Shahar Peer 1.2 Won +1.90
Brianti v Vesnina Bet-Elena Vesnina 1.33 Won +3.14
Cornet v Erakovic Bet-Alize Cornet 1.41 Won +3.90

PL for day +49.15

[MarcusMel]

Blake v Gicquel Bet-James Blake 1.37 Won 3.52

[MarcusMel]

PL Todate -22.11

[MarcusMel]

Davydenko v Karlovic Bet Nikolay Davydenko 1.27
Troicki v Kubot Bet Viktor Troicki 1.52
Roddick v Gasquet Bet Andy Roddick 1.37