own ratings

[mick56]

With so many commercially produced ratings available,i would be interested to no if any members produce their own,and if you want to talk about how you go about it,or your experiances in this area, i think it would make an interesting thread.

[Win2Win]

Takes way tooooooooooo much time, and as you say, plenty around you can use to give you an edge.

[Godspot]

With so many commercially produced ratings available,i would be interested to no if any members produce their own,and if you want to talk about how you go about it,or your experiances in this area, i think it would make an interesting thread.

Used to Mick & still do up to a point but like Keith says, sooooooooooo time consuming... I still have a spreadsheet with all the standard times from the Racing Post & Nick Mordin & all I have to do is type in the time of the race, add a going correction & I get my own figures, then what?

The same as I do with any other set of figures, convert them to an estimated rating...

If you read the In Ireland, Horses to Follow thread you will see Nick Mordin's system from last week's Weekender - this is beginning to look like one of his best systems for quite some time. Not only does it provide more qualifers than the usual but it is not hard to expand upon - the reason I picked Dolly Hall, it didn't quite match his criteria but it was still running around clocking rpr's some 20lb higher than her official rating. There seems more qualifiers in Ireland but Master Overseer was an obliger for the system in the Sussex National last week, anyway, I'm off in search of this week's little batch of qualifiers.

[mick56]

hi godspot,just read your in Ireland thread ,and nick mordins system is an interesting use of readily available figs .i do not follow rprs but 20lb above OR sounds very high.Is their hcap formulated in such away that all of their ratings come out higher than OR.

[Godspot]

but 20lb above OR sounds very high.Is their hcap formulated in such away that all of their ratings come out higher than OR.

Not necessarily Mick but there are certainly more in Ireland - NM's article last week makes for an interesting read and it all hinges around this IMHO:

"For example, although the median official chase ratings in Britain & Ireland are now the same at 105, the spread of the ratings is different. Only 11.83% of Irish chase ratings are 130 or more. In Britain the figure is nearly 15%." Nick Mordin

Seeing how the Racing Post uses the same scale for both, I reckon it is this 20lb business that is catching the missing 3%. Does that make sense?

[mick56]

Of all the threads i have posted so far i hoped this one would invoke a good response,because it is a subject which interests me and i was,still am looking forward to reading other members views

For me there is something fascinating about formulating a figure as a measure of a horses performance in past races and as an expression of its chance in to days race.

As win2win quite rightly pointed out there are many good commercially available hcaps available ,which makes it not worth the time spent producing your own.but as i recall he also pointed out on another post that followed blindly they do not show a profit.

We all no that ratings form only a part of a horses overall chance,it is interesting that probably the most creditable vendor of ratings TIME FORM constantly state in there literature that users should always be prepared to ignore their top rated and go for a lower rated who has more suitable racing conditions this is fair comment except that when their top rated do win this is the only factor they want to highlight.

The other possible negative factor although i do not have any figs to substantiate this but,do the top rated selections of timeform or racing post effect the value of them,i guess if you are oppossing them that's all to the good,but if you are paying for them maybe not so good.

These are just a few ideas why i feel it is worthwhile for any one to consider trying to formulate thier own ratings.

[mick56]

Seeing how the Racing Post uses the same scale for both, I reckon it is this 20lb business that is catching the missing 3%. Does that make sense?

yes can see what you mean now thanks:thumbs

[Godspot]

For me there is something fascinating about formulating a figure as a measure of a horses performance in past races and as an expression of its chance in to days race.

I was going to put some of this on another thread you started Mick, yer biggest winner one or smth? But back in the summer of '95 I was talking (ie. shouting from the rooftops!) LAMMTARRA - THE WONDERHORSE, WILL WIN THE DERBY! Who? Never heard of it!

It all boiled down to something that former Weekender columnist Gerald Delamere (much respect) said about three Godolphin horses:

'These three, Vettori, Moonshell & Classic Cliche (I think, good memory me like but), end of last season they were all clocking 90's & running around in maidens, they have all come back from Dubai & now they're getting placed in Classics & clocking 120's.'

He didn't mention Lammtarra but something just clicked in my head - hold on, Lammtarra only ran once, won a Listed race & earned an International Classification/OR of 110! Now, if he comes back from Dubai & improves 30lb like the others, wow, a possible wonderhorse! A total guestimation that no published set of figures could account for.

But I agree yeh! Fascinating & people still buy me drinks for that summer.:spinning

[mick56]

I was going to put some of this on another thread you started Mick, yer biggest winner one or smth? But back in the summer of '95 I was talking (ie. shouting from the rooftops!) LAMMTARRA - THE WONDERHORSE, WILL WIN THE DERBY! Who? Never heard of it!

It all boiled down to something that former Weekender columnist Gerald Delamere (much respect) said about three Godolphin horses:

'These three, Vettori, Moonshell & Classic Cliche (I think, good memory me like but), end of last season they were all clocking 90's & running around in maidens, they have all come back from Dubai & now they're getting placed in Classics & clocking 120's.'

He didn't mention Lammtarra but something just clicked in my head - hold on, Lammtarra only ran once, won a Listed race & earned an International Classification/OR of 110! Now, if he comes back from Dubai & improves 30lb like the others, wow, a possible wonderhorse! A total guestimation that no published set of figures could account for.

But I agree yeh! Fascinating & people still buy me drinks for that summer.:spinning

very much enjoyed reading this post is it not sweet on the occasions when a plan like that works out.

agree with you about GERALD DELAMERE in my constant quest for improved knowledge over the years i have corresponded and spoken with several racing journalists and i hope this does not sound to immodest but i have not often been impressed by thier opinions.MR DELAMERE proved a notable exception who i would rate a very good judge.
PS please do post the rest of your Lammtarra story on the most memorable win thread,would love to read about what price you got on ,and how you felt on the day ect.best wishes

[gobro]

One vital ingredient for successful punting is that you've got to be confident that your selection can win. Horses with good recent form, preferably winning form, running against limited opposition within their class, when at their peak, progressing or improving - do win the majority of races, all year round. They are a constant source of winners for anyone to exploit. Almost every winner worth backing falls into this category which is broadened even further by the four Pros: PROVEN, PROGRESSIVE, PROMISING and PROFITABLE By: Clive Holt

[biyax]

nice read :smile:

[Godspot]

Talking about 20lb higher than ratings above - I would stick yesterday's Yarmouth winner, Pickled Pelican in your notebooks - he clocked a figure some 25lb higher than his OR - mind u, he won by 7l's so will go up at least 14lb but there should still be 11lb to play with?

[biyax]

Pickled Pelican in your notebooks -

What? in my book?:doh:doh:doh