CrazyBadger's Favourites System

[crazybadger]

I have been super busy recently so have really been more of a spectator on here than anything good but I'm going to try to get back into it with a system I have recorded for the past 6ish months. I don't have the exact stats as they are on my laptop but it is a system focussed on short price (mostly odds on) favourites.

It has had about 150 selections (roughly 1 a day) and is currently at 70% strike rate but the average price of all winners so far is around the 1.60 mark so the required strike rate is about 60-65%.

[crazybadger]

02/02/2010

2:10 @ Taunton - Toubab

[mathare]

Good luck CB, always good to see someone trying something new :thumbs

[crazybadger]

Good luck CB, always good to see someone trying something new :thumbs

Thanks mate. We'll see if I can maintain this thread for longer than the others...


2:10 @ Taunton - Toubab...BSP of 1.74 but finished 6th.


I forgot to mention that to keep it simple I will just use BSP and talk in terms of units.

Stats
0/1
-1 unit

[crazybadger]

03/02/2010

2:55 @ Leic - Calzaghe
3:15 @ Newc - Turbo Island
6:30 @ Kemp - Lovers Causeway

[crazybadger]

03/02/2010

2:55 @ Leic - Calzaghe - Abandonded
3:15 @ Newc - Turbo Island - Abandonded
6:30 @ Kemp - Lovers Causeway- Removed

Eventful day :)

[vegyjones]

Just as well for the abandonments, the first two would neer have won... they were in my system :laugh

[crazybadger]

Just as well for the abandonments, the first two would neer have won... they were in my system :laugh
I was backing a change in your fortune. Even a broken watch is right twice a day...

[crazybadger]

I'm on my laptop now so I will put up the stats I have which show why I want to keep an eye on this system. I have stats from mid May 2009 to 1st Dec 2009 so just a bit over 6 months worth...

Selections: 147
Winners: 106 (72.11%)
Avg Odds of winners: 1.64
Mode Odds of all selections: 1.48
Median Odds of all selection: 1.55
Highest Odds: 3.01
Lowest Odds: 1.09
Longest Win streak: 9
Longest Loss streak: 4

Using a $500 start bank with a basic 5% staking plan (which I think will be very reasonable if this system can maintain 70% strike rate) then the bank stats are:
Current (and Highest) Bank: $1192.75
Current (and Highest) Profit: $692.75 (139% of starting bank)
Lowest Bank: $421.99 (84.4% of starting bank)
Total Risked: $4864.09
ROI: 14.24%

Very nice on all fronts. When I get time I will go through my data for Dec '09 and Jan '10 to see if the trend has continued.

[vegyjones]

I was backing a change in your fortune. Even a broken watch is right twice a day...

:laugh

[crazybadger]

04/02/2010

2:50 @ Winc - Green Belt Elite
5:50 @ Wolv - Greyfriarchorista
7:20 @ Wolv - Aaman

Interestingly Aaman was close to being a selection two days ago but had one rule that went against him. He won that race and now he's back on my radar. Let's hope he makes it 3 wins on the trot...

[crazybadger]

2:50 @ Winc - Green Belt Elite - Won @ BSP 2.08
5:50 @ Wolv - Greyfriarchorista - Won @ BSP 1.40
7:20 @ Wolv - Aaman - Lost

Stats
2/4 (50%)
-0.52 Units

[crazybadger]

I could have sworn I posted yesterdays selections before my soccer game...oh well here is how they went.

1:45 @ Ling - Monaco Dream - Lost
4:10 @ Bang - Asturienne - Lost
8:05 @ Wolv - Into Wain - Won @ BSP 1.98


Stats
3/7 (42.86%)
-1.54 Units

[crazybadger]

I will get in early so I remember to get them in before cricket.

06/02/01
1:30 @ Sand - Binocular
2:25 @ Donc - Mad Max
2:35 @ Sand - Punchestowns

[crazybadger]

06/02/01
1:30 @ Sand - Binocular - Won @ BSP 1.15
2:25 @ Donc - Mad Max - 3rd
2:35 @ Sand - PunchestownsWon @ BSP 1.38

Stats
5/10 (50%)
-2.01 Units

[crazybadger]

7/02/10

2:10 @ Sthl - Inside Track

[crazybadger]

7/02/10

2:10 @ Sthl - Inside Track - 2nd
Boo

Stats
5/11 (45.45%)
-3.01 Units

[crazybadger]

08/02/10

Move along folks. Nothing to see hear...

[crazybadger]

09/02/2010
2:30 @ MktR - Over Sixty
2:40 @ Sedg - Tilt
4:50 @ Sthl - Spruce

[crazybadger]

09/02/2010
2:30 @ MktR - Over Sixty - won @ 1.25
2:40 @ Sedg - Tilt - lost
4:50 @ Sthl - Spruce - won @ 1.17

Stats
7/14 (50%)
-3.59 Units

[crazybadger]

10/02/10
3:40 @ Sthl - Lady Counsellor
3:55 @ Ling - Bowmaker
4:10 @ Sthl - Rebel Rebellion

[crazybadger]

10/02/10
3:40 @ Sthl - Lady Counsellor - Lost
3:55 @ Ling - Bowmaker - Lost
4:10 @ Sthl - Rebel Rebellion - Won @ 1.15

Stats
8/17 (47.06%)
-5.34 Units

[crazybadger]

11/02/10

Nada...

[crazybadger]

12/02/10
2:35 @ Kemp - Quantitativeeasing
2:45 @ Bang - Oversixty
3:30 @ Sthl - Doctor Zhivago
3:45 @ Kemp - Doc De Regniere

[crazybadger]

12/02/10
2:35 @ Kemp - Quantitativeeasing - Lost
2:45 @ Bang - Oversixty - won @ 1.40
3:30 @ Sthl - Doctor Zhivago - won @1.29
3:45 @ Kemp - Doc De Regniere - won @ 1.67

Stats
11/21 (52.38%)
-4.98 Units

[crazybadger]

13/02/2010
1:30 @ Newb - Diamond Harry
1:40 @ Ayr - Edge of Town
2:15 @ Warw - Long Run
2:30 @ Newb - Denman
3:40 @ Newb - Master Minded

[crazybadger]

13/02/2010
1:30 @ Newb - Diamond Harry - Won @ 1.69
1:40 @ Ayr - Edge of Town - Won @ 1.96
2:15 @ Warw - Long Run - Won @ 1.58
2:30 @ Newb - Denman - Lost
3:40 @ Newb - Master Minded - Won @ 1.78

Stats
15/26 (57.69%)
-2.97 Units

[crazybadger]

14/02/10

3:00 @ Extr - Najaf
3:35 @ Extr - Glenwood Knight

[crazybadger]

14/02/10

3:00 @ Extr - Najaf - won @ 1.85
3:35 @ Extr - Glenwood Knight - won @ 1.26

Stats
17/28 (60.71%)
-1.86 Units

[crazybadger]

15/02/10

3:40 @ Wolv - Bubbly Braveheart

[crazybadger]

15/02/10
3:40 @ Wolv - Bubbly Braveheart - won @ 1.72

Stats
18/29 (62.07%)
-1.14 Units

[crazybadger]

16/02/10
Sthl 2:30 Shernando

[crazybadger]

16/02/10
Sthl 2:30 Shernando - won @ 1.43

Stats
19/30 (63.33%)
-0.71 Units

[crazybadger]

18/02/10
3:20 @ Kels - Zaynar

[crazybadger]

I have been out of town for a charity ball so missed a day or 2. Will quickly post todays up and sort it all out properly when I get back home.

2:00 @ Sedg - Double Expresso

[crazybadger]

23/02/10
3:00 @ Shtl - Ogee

[crazybadger]

18/02/10
3:20 @ Kels - Zaynar - Lost

2:00 @ Sedg - Double Expresso - DNR

23/02/10
3:00 @ Shtl - Ogee - Won @ 1.52

Stats
20/32 (62.5%)
-1.19 Units

[crazybadger]

24/02/10

1:40 @ Ling - Noble Greek
1:50 @ Lud - Great Reason
3:55 @ Ling - Handsome Cross
7:30 @ Kemp - Exemplary

[crazybadger]

24/02/10

1:40 @ Ling - Noble Greek - Won @ 1.28
1:50 @ Lud - Great Reason - Won @ 1.73
3:55 @ Ling - Handsome Cross - Won @ 1.48
7:30 @ Kemp - Exemplary - Lost

Stats
23/36 (63.89%)
-0.70 Units

[crazybadger]

25/02/10

3:05 @ Hunt - You're the top
5:00 @ Ayr - Always Right

[crazybadger]

25/02/10

3:05 @ Hunt - You're the top - won @ 1.90
5:00 @ Ayr - Always Right - N/A

Stats
24/37 (64.86%)
+0.20 Units

[crazybadger]

27/02/10

1:00 @ Kemp -Punjabi
2:10 @ Ling - Atlantic Tiger
2:30 @ Kemp - The Nightingale
3:40 @ Kemp - Mille Chief

[crazybadger]

27/02/10

1:00 @ Kemp -Punjabi - won @ 1.18
2:10 @ Ling - Atlantic Tiger - won @ 1.71
2:30 @ Kemp - The Nightingale - won @ 1.72
3:40 @ Kemp - Mille Chief - N/A

Stats
27/40 (67.50%)
+1.81 Units

[crazybadger]

All the good favourites must be having a rest as there has been no selections since Saturday.

[crazybadger]

04/03/10
2:50 @ Taun - Voramor Two
3:50 @ Taun - Pistolet Noir
7:50 @ Wolv - Binthere Dunthat

[crazybadger]

04/03/10
2:50 @ Taun - Voramor Two - won @ 1.18
3:50 @ Taun - Pistolet Noir - lost
7:50 @ Wolv - Binthere Dunthat - won @ 1.24

Stats
29/43 (67.44%)
+1.23 Units

[crazybadger]

05/03/10
2:10 @ Newb - Super Kenny

[crazybadger]

Yesterdays was a non-event so onto today

06/03/10
3:00 @ Kels - Bedlam Boy
3:55 @ Kemp - Latanier
4:35 @ Donc- Junior

[crazybadger]

Yesterdays was a non-event so onto today

06/03/10
3:00 @ Kels - Bedlam Boy - won @ 1.49
3:55 @ Kemp - Latanier - lost
4:35 @ Donc- Junior - won @ 1.39

Stats
31/46 (67.39%)
+1.11 Units

[crazybadger]

10/03/10
3:50 @ Catt - Bogside Theatre
7:30 @ Wolv - Satwa Moon

[crazybadger]

10/03/10
3:50 @ Catt - Bogside Theatre - won @ 1.56
7:30 @ Wolv - Satwa Moon - Lost

Stats
32/48 (66.67%)
+0.67 Units

[crazybadger]

12/03/10
5:15 @ Sand - Lush Life

[crazybadger]

12/03/10
5:15 @ Sand - Lush Life - won @ 1.58

Stats
33/49(67.34%)
+1.25 Units

[crazybadger]

13/03/10
3:30 @ Chep - Maktu

[crazybadger]

13/03/10
3:30 @ Chep - Maktu - won @ 1.54

Stats
34/50(68%)
+1.79 Units

[crazybadger]

14/03/10
4:50 @ Towc - Fundamentalist

[crazybadger]

14/03/10
4:50 @ Towc - Fundamentalist - lost

Stats
34/51(66.67%)
+0.79 Units

[crazybadger]

3:20 @ Taun - Fix the rib

[crazybadger]

3:20 @ Taun - Fix the rib _ lost
Stats
34/52(65.38%)
-0.21 Units

16/03/10
1:30 @ Chelt - Dunguib

[crazybadger]

1:30 @ Chelt - Dunguib - lost

Stats
34/53(64.15%)
-1.21 Units

[crazybadger]

17/03/10
3:20 @ Chelt - Master Minded

I haven't been considering Irish races but as it is pretty easy to get selections for them too I think I might as well keep track of them here....

4:35 @ Wex - Organisedconfusion
4:50 @ DowR - Agus a Vic

[crazybadger]

3:20 @ Chelt - Master Minded - lost

Stats
34/54(62.96%)
-2.21 Units

And that is now officially the worst run of outs so far - 4 losses in a row...



4:35 @ Wex - Organisedconfusion - N/A
4:50 @ DowR - Agus a Vic - N/A
And a great start to the Irish records

[crazybadger]

2:55 @ Hex - Noble Alan
3:20 @ Chelt - Big Bucks

[crazybadger]

2:55 @ Hex - Noble Alan - won @ 1.40
3:20 @ Chelt - Big Bucks- won @ 1.96

Stats
36/56(64.29%)
-0.85 Units

[crazybadger]

2:55 @ Fake - Penn da Benn
3:20 @ Chelt - Kauto Star

[crazybadger]

2:55 @ Fake - Penn da Benn - Lost
3:20 @ Chelt - Kauto Star - Lost

Stats
36/58(62.07%)
-2.85 Units

[crazybadger]

Was out over the weekend so didn't get time to post here. Only one from yesterday anyway...

3:35 @ Carl - Ernst Blofeld won @ 1.88

None today either.

Stats
37/59(62.71%)
-1.97 Units

[crazybadger]

2:00 @ kemp - Captain Chris

[crazybadger]

2:00 @ kemp - Captain Chris - won @ 1.34

Stats
38/60(63.33%)
-1.63 Units

[crazybadger]

2:55 @ Warw - Gullible Gordon
3:30 @ Warw - William Hogarth
5:10 @ Warw - Nono Le Sage
7:50 @ Kemp - Middle Club

[crazybadger]

2:55 @ Warw - Gullible Gordon - Lost
3:30 @ Warw - William Hogarth - won @ 1.26
5:10 @ Warw - Nono Le Sage - won @ 1.60
7:50 @ Kemp - Middle Club - won @ 1.97

Stats
41/64(64.06%)
-0.8 Units

[crazybadger]

2:10 @ Ayr - Meridian City
2:40 @ Ayr - Nobel Alan
2:50 @ Chep - Gamesters Lady
3:15 @ Ayr - Overturn
6:50 @ Kemp - Clairvoyance

[crazybadger]

2:10 @ Ayr - Meridian City - Lost
2:40 @ Ayr - Nobel Alan - won @ 1.20
2:50 @ Chep - Gamesters Lady - won @ 1.97
3:15 @ Ayr - Overturn - won @ 1.52
6:50 @ Kemp - Clairvoyance - won @ 3.31

Stats
45/69(65.22%)
+2.2 Units

[crazybadger]

1:50 @ Newb - Anquetta
2:30 @ Sedg - Silent cliche
3:40 @ Sedg - Lord Villez
4:15 @ Sedg - Pemberton
4:40 @ Newb - Joaaci

[crazybadger]

1:50 @ Newb - Anquetta - lost
2:30 @ Sedg - Silent cliche - lost
3:40 @ Sedg - Lord Villez won @ 1.26
4:15 @ Sedg - Pemberton won 1.97
4:40 @ Newb - Joaaci won @ 1.45

Stats
48/74(64.86%)
+1.88 Units

[crazybadger]

Out all day yesterday so didnt get time to post...

3:15 @ Bang - Viking Rebel - Lost
3:55 @ Nav - Lilywhitedancer - won @ 1.83


Stats
49/76(64.47%)
+1.71Units

[crazybadger]

2:10 @ ling - Abbondanza

[crazybadger]

2:10 @ ling - Abbondanza - Lost

Stats
49/77(63.64%)
+0.71Units

[crazybadger]

3:00 @ Sthl - Sir Pitt

[crazybadger]

3:00 @ Sthl - Sir Pitt - won @ 1.71

Stats
50/78(64.10%)
+1.42 Units

[crazybadger]

3:00 @ Ludl - Latanier

[crazybadger]

3:00 @ Ludl - Latanier - won @ 1.58

Stats
51/79(64.56%)
+2.0 Units

[crazybadger]

2:15 @ Carl - Diamond Frontier
2:15 @ Cork - Sweet My Lord

[crazybadger]

2:15 @ Carl - Diamond Frontier - won @ 1.67
2:15 @ Cork - Sweet My Lord - won @ 1.75

Stats
53/81(65.43%)
+3.42 Units

[crazybadger]

4:50 @ Muss - Goodluking Lucy
5:10 @ Towc - Cavite Beta

[crazybadger]

4:50 @ Muss - Goodluking Lucy - won @ 2.12
5:10 @ Towc - Cavite Beta- won @ 1.50

Stats
55/83(66.27%)
+5.04 Units

[crazybadger]

2:20 @ Fairy - Cousing Vinny
3:10 @ Redc - Wind Star
3:15 @ Fake - Woodlark Island
3:35 @ Chep - Fabalu

[crazybadger]

2:20 @ Fairy - Cousing Vinny - won @ 2.16
3:10 @ Redc - Wind Star - NR
3:15 @ Fake - Woodlark Island - won @ 1.53
3:35 @ Chep - Fabalu - won @ 1.56

Stats
58/86(67.44%)
+7.29 Units

[crazybadger]

2:15 @ Weth - Woodlark Island
3:40 @ Sthl - Ibn Hiyyan

Hmmm Woodlark Island a selection twice in two days. Haven't seen that before but I guess we can see how it goes.

[crazybadger]

2:15 @ Weth - Woodlark Island - lost
3:40 @ Sthl - Ibn Hiyyan - won @ 1.89

Stats
59/88(67.05%)
+7.18 Units

[crazybadger]

6:00 @ Kemp - Swindler

[crazybadger]

6:00 @ Kemp - Swindler - won @ 1.45

Stats
60/89(67.42%)
+7.63 Units

[crazybadger]

1:50 @ Kemp - Cois Farraig
2:15 @ Muss - Las Verglas Star

[crazybadger]

1:50 @ Kemp - Cois Farraig - Lost
2:15 @ Muss - Las Verglas Star - won @ 1.78

Stats
61/91(67.03%)
+7.41 Units

[crazybadger]

4:10 @ Sthl - Watamu Bay
4:15 @ Curr - Fame and Glory

[crazybadger]

4:10 @ Sthl - Watamu Bay - NR
4:15 @ Curr - Fame and Glory - lost

Stats
61/92(66.30%)
+6.41 Units

[crazybadger]

4:40 @ Extr - Gentle George
5:25 @ Lim - Bethrah

[crazybadger]

4:40 @ Extr - Gentle George - Lost
5:25 @ Lim - Bethrah - won @ 1.51

Stats
62/94(65.96%)
+5.92 Units

[crazybadger]

5:05 @ Chelt- Just Amazing

[crazybadger]

5:05 @ Chelt- Just Amazing - won @ 1.83

Stats
63/95(66.32%)
+6.75 Units

[crazybadger]

Forgot to post yesterday

6:30 @ Tipp - The Bull Hayes - won @ 1.65

Stats
64/96(66.67%)
+7.4 Units

[crazybadger]

5:25 @ Uttx - Awesome George
9:25 @ Dundalk - Behtarini

[crazybadger]

5:25 @ Uttx - Awesome George - lost
9:25 @ Dundalk - Behtarini - lost

Stats
64/98(65.31%)
+5.4 Units

[crazybadger]

9:25 @ Donc - Saptapadi

[crazybadger]

7:55 @ Donc - Saptapadi - won @ 1.35

Stats
65/99(65.66%)
+5.75 Units

[crazybadger]

2:20 @ Strat - Black Jack Blues
2:45 @ Leop - Famous Name

[crazybadger]

2:20 @ Strat - Black Jack Blues - lost
3:35 @ Leop - Famous Name - won @ 2.20

Stats
66/101(65.35%)
+5.95 Units

[crazybadger]

3:20 @ Plump - Bangkok Pete
4:50 @ Kemp - Masked Man

[crazybadger]

3:20 @ Plump - Bangkok Pete - won @ 1.21
4:50 @ Kemp - Masked Man - won @ 1.73

Stats
68/103(66.02%)
+6.89 Units

[crazybadger]

5:10 @ Bright - Curtains
6:40 @ Bright - Sedgwick

[crazybadger]

5:10 @ Bright - Curtains - won @ 1.26
6:40 @ Bright - Sedgwick - lost

Stats
69/105(65.71%)
+6.15 Units

Todays
3:30 @ Epsm - Prompter
7:30 @ Sthl - Synthe Davis

[crazybadger]

3:30 @ Epsm - Prompter - Lost (1.68)
7:30 @ Sthl - Synthe Davis - Lost (1.32)
Stats

69/107(64.49%)
+4.15 Units

[crazybadger]

3:45 @ Perth - Backstage
6:05 @ Uttox - Master Fong
6:35 @ Uttox - Gisland

[crazybadger]

3:45 @ Perth - Backstage - lost
6:05 @ Uttox - Master Fong - won @ 1.53
6:35 @ Uttox - Gisland - won @ 1.69

Stats
71/110(64.55%)
+4.37 Units

[crazybadger]

6:55 @ Newt - Perfect Reward
7:30 @ Newt - King of the Night

[crazybadger]

6:55 @ Newt - Perfect Reward - lost
7:30 @ Newt - King of the Night - won @ 1.87

Stats
72/112(64.29%)
+4.24 Units

Todays
2:40 @ Mrkt - King Fontaine
8:05 @ Hayd - Deauville Post

[crazybadger]

2:40 @ Mrkt - King Fontaine - won @ 1.60
8:05 @ Hayd - Deauville Post - won @ 1.48

Yesterdys I forgot to post...
2:00 @ Ludl - Marodima - won @ 1.19

Stats
75/115(65.22%)
+5.51 Units

Todays
2:50 @ Towc - The Ferbane Man
3:40 @ Newc - Dancing Dude
4:00 @ Wolv - Part Doctor

[crazybadger]

2:50 @ Towc - The Ferbane Man - won @ 2.20
3:40 @ Newc - Dancing Dude - won @ 1.87
4:00 @ Wolv - Party Doctor - won @ 1.16

Stats
78/118(66.10%)
+7.74 Units

[crazybadger]

2:50 @ Winc - Five out of Five
4:50 @ Winc - Osric

[crazybadger]

2:50 @ Winc - Five out of Five - lost (1.52)
4:50 @ Winc - Osric - NR

Stats
78/119(65.55%)
+6.74 Units

[crazybadger]

2:10 @ Ascot - Zebedee
4:50 @ Sthl - Romping Home
5:50 @ Kelso - Al Qeddaaf

[crazybadger]

2:10 @ Ascot - Zebedee - won @ 1.25
4:50 @ Sthl - Romping Home - NR
5:50 @ Kelso - Al Qeddaaf - Lost (1.63)

Stats
79/121(65.29%)
+5.99 Units

[crazybadger]

4:40 @ Folk - Swish Dish
5:05 @ Redc - Sparkling Smile
5:20 @ Here - Scoter Fontaine
5:40 @ Hunt - Native Bob

[crazybadger]

Will update stats from yesterday later on but todays picks are...

5:00 @ Cork - High Award
5:50 @ Bang - Kanad

[crazybadger]

Haven't had time to update this thread while away but now I'm back with details oft the bets over the last few days...


4:40 @ Folk - Swish Dish -lost
5:05 @ Redc - Sparkling Smile - won @ 1.58
5:20 @ Here - Scoter Fontaine - won @ 1.45
5:40 @ Hunt - Native Bob-lost


5:00 @ Cork - High Award-lost
5:50 @ Bang - Kanad-lost

02/05/10
3:15 @ Sligo - Flat Out - won @ 1.23
4:05 @ Salis - Awsaal - won @ 2.32

Stats
83/129(64.34%)
+4.57 Units

Todays
2:30 @ Kemp - Jambo Bibi
3:10 @ Warw - Golden Shine
4:15 @ Curr - Fame and Glory
4:20 @ DownR - Jessies Dream

[crazybadger]

Too busy/lazy to keep posting my system here but I thought I would post an update for today seeing yesterdays races makes it a full year that I have been following this system. So after 365 days...

Bets: 356 (roughly 1 per day as I did miss a handful of days)
Wins: 237 (66.57%)
Avg Odds (all): 1.64
Mode Odds (all): 1.48
Median Odds (all): 1.58
Avg Odds (winners): 1.58
Highest Win Odds: 3.31
Lowest Win Odds: 1.09
Longest Win Streak: 9
Longest Losing Streak: 5

Using 5% Flat staking:
ROI: 4.37%
Bank Growth: 77.79%

Using 5% percentage (rachet) staking:
ROI: 2.77%
Bank Growth: 107.26%

In summary I think I have a fairly good system here. Making 3-4% ROI and doubling the initial investment in a year works for me. Especially for such short-priced horses. A strike rate of 66% (and longest losing streak of just 5) means I can be aggressive in my staking plan without adding too much risk.

I have already been following it with small stakes but my confidence is pretty high so think it is time to ramp it up :D

[bryn]

Good going CB
You would not have doubled any savings with any high street bank in 12 months. Thumbs up from me mate.
Bryn

[crazybadger]

Good going CB
You would not have doubled any savings with any high street bank in 12 months. Thumbs up from me mate.
Bryn

Exactly right. Thanks for your comment mate