Daily Waffle 14th Feb

[barrelmaniac]

Thats another days racing over for me and it couldnt have gone much worse, my biggest losing day of the year so far, its unbelievable how I am dodging the winners.

Tomorrow is another day, I am still confident that things will pick up soon.:thumbs

[mathare]

Really poor day for me too with a mid-priced Lay'em winner and one of my lay systems taking a beating too, particularly on the Irish racing. The football has gone pretty well, for a change, but it doesn't make up much of the losses from the racing.

W2W Systems: 0 from 1, down 1pt
W2W Lays: 5 from 7, down 1.07
Other: 11 from 23, down 26.50pts

The last three days have been pretty painful. I could do with a good couple of weeks to turn things around now, especially on the NH where most of my systems are in the red.

[barrelmaniac]

Yes, it has been a hard time recently, my theory rightly or wrongly is because of the interferrance that the bad weather had on the racing during January.

Unfortunately the time has come to ditch one of my systems, its been a slow drain on the bank now for quite some months, I have ironed out a lot of ideas as what to replace it with, although I think I will wait a while before I go ahead and start it. I think that long term the failure of that system has probably done me a favour as I will be replacing it with something that looks like it will have much more ponential to make money although I have a bit of studying to do to make completely sure that this is the right move.

[scoobydoo]

Another losing day, not been a great few days really has it.

Backs 1/1 +0.22pts
Lays 2/3 -4.10pts

[mick56]

I like reading about how others are getting on and its never all bad news,so although i do not bet every day will make my contribution when able.To day i backed just one(Letham Island) and dispite starting 7/4 fav you could see someway out that it was not going to be involved in the finish with as yet no apparent reason, i have suffered more than my share of these during the past 3 months.But maybe its a long term correction which will work its self out on balance, upsetting never the less.We are now at the half way stage of this month and i am showing a lose of 3pts which i hope will soon be turned around,as others have said the weather and lack of continuity have not been helpful but i cannot help but feel there is something else not right ,there is not much talk at present about stable viruses so i dont no what to think.mind you after a couple of good priced winners, i will probably have forgotten about it.Good fortune to all for the second half of feb,it seems incredable but Cheltenhams next month.

[mathare]

Yes, it has been a hard time recently, my theory rightly or wrongly is because of the interferrance that the bad weather had on the racing during January.I just checked back over my results for this time last year and I made roughly the same profit (in points) from the systems and the lays as I did this year but in something like just over a quarter as many bets. OK, some of the systems I have now weren't up and running last year and the make-up of my portfolio was different; I haven't included old systems that I have dropped since then, for example. But the point is my profit levels are similar but the number of bets taken to reach that level has been much greater. I don't know if this is entirely down to the weather or whether other factors, including natural variance and good old-fashioned luck, play a part, which they surely do. With an ever-changing portfolio it is hard to compare the start of this year with an equivalent point in time to minimise the differences in the weather and thus neutralise that as a variable. Racing, and other sports, have so many variables in that taken the weather out of the equation is almost impossible and even were it possible it would leave you with so many other sources of potential change that you wouldn't be any closer to working out why the differences in results are occurring.

[neilb7]

,upsetting never the less.We are now at the half way stage of this month and i am showing a lose of 3pts which i hope will soon be turned around,as others have said the weather and lack of continuity have not been helpful but i cannot help but feel there is something else not right ,there is not much talk at present about stable viruses so i dont no what to think.mind you after a couple of good priced winners, i will probably have forgotten about it.Good fortune to all for the second half of feb,it seems incredable but Cheltenhams next month.

Hi Mick,

i think ive mentioned before im fairly new to this game, but i remember (and unfortunately have records) of last Feb and i lost a fortune. i am glad i had a decent jan and hope that it all picks up in the near future :thumbs

as you mentioned look forward to Cheltenham, it was a profitible one for me last year :Helooo

[mick56]

Hi neilb7 i am a great advocate of keeping long term records,but as you indicate they can be a cat with two tails,YTD i am making a small LSP so i am not concerned about that but rather the running of some of the horses i have backed during the past 3 months,generaly when i back one that runs poorly i blame my own judgment, or sometimes you can see bad luck in running or even jockey error as long as i can establish a reason and learn from it i am ok with that,but there have been an abnormally high % for which there is no apparent reason and it is this which has/does concern me ,hopefully it will sort its self shortly.

[neilb7]

when i back one that runs poorly i blame my own judgment, or sometimes you can see bad luck in running or even jockey error as long as i can establish a reason and learn from it i am ok with that,but there have been an abnormally high % for which there is no apparent reason and it is this which has/does concern me ,hopefully it will sort its self shortly.

fair play to you for only doing your own method bets, i havent got the discipline or the knowledge...
i only bet with systems, ive tried my own bets many a time and they have always left me out of pocket. im sure things will turn around.:thumbs