Multiples

[mick56]

I avg 300 bets per year,with occasionally 2 or even 3 on the same day,one sat in july 08 i found 4 bets which had not occurred before ,i obtained EMP of 5 6 8 and 10/1,so only one of them needed to win to make a worthwhile profit on the day,but the truth of it is that i was feeling confident about all 4,by the end of racing i was gutted because all 4 had lost.

Four months later boxing day 08 i had the same situation and tried so hard to reduce this but finally decided that the opportunity's must be taken when they occurre(i often have days with no bet)so went ahead all 4 won not at as good prices as the previous time but very nice.

One sat last year i had 2 out of 2 @ 9/1 & 14/1 both paying much higher on BF,and that brings me to the point of this post,i recently recived a call from BF puffing thier multiples market,no commission and other improvements they are making,this caused me to back check my records for the past 8yrs to list the days when i had more than one bet,on these occassions risking just 1pt extra ie 2 a double 3 a treble etc would have prouduced a very nice additional profit.

Yet despite this i feel a great reluctance to start investing? in this way,i cannot work out why can you tell me?.

[mathare]

IF (and it's a big if) you honestly believe you have an edge on every leg of the multiple then it makes sense to combine the bets as your parlaying your edge. But you do need that edge on every leg of the bet.

If you have a 10% edge on each single then you'll have a 21% edge on a double and over 33% edge on the treble. Of course, if the bookie has the advantage, as they so often do for the average punter, then combining selections into multiples is just increasing the bookies advantage (and his holiday fund). Which is why bookies push lucky 31s and the like and offer several times your odds if you only get one winner and so on. They are trying to draw you into their trap.

In your case though, why not start a small stakes 'fun' multiples bank and see how it goes each day? I would say though that you might be better rolling your stakes up, doing the bets leg by leg rather than by putting the multiple on as one bet. It depends on your ability to get the best prices I suppose. I don't know how Betfair multiples work I must admit but if you're going to use a bookie make sure you're with the BOG firms and shop around. Use a service like Oddschecker to build the multiple and compare prices across several firms.

[mick56]

IF (and it's a big if) you honestly believe you have an edge on every leg of the multiple then it makes sense to combine the bets as your parlaying your edge. But you do need that edge on every leg of the bet.
Cheers you always seem to be at the front of the queue with helpful comments,regarding your above that is part of the problem,as i would never presume to think that i had an edge on any single wager.The only edge i belive in is that my knowledge work and discipline will prouduce long term profits i would neither ask nor expect more than this.

[mathare]

Does your study of a racecard not give you an idea of what you would consider to be a fair price for your selection?

If you go through all the day's races and pick out your bets do you not have some inkling of the lowest price you would back them at?

[presto]

over the weekend i noticed that betfair had a promotion on '4 fold's (or more) on the football. where if the bet lost 1/2 your stake would be refunded (max £25), so i had a dabble knowing that it would be 'value' despite the reduced odd's.

may be worth keeping an eye open for similar promotions in the future.

[mick56]

Does your study of a racecard not give you an idea of what you would consider to be a fair price for your selection?

If you go through all the day's races and pick out your bets do you not have some inkling of the lowest price you would back them at?

No i tend to look at value in a different way to most,the only price restriction i apply is odds on no bet,and fortunately in the type of race i analise this is an infrequent occurrence.Once i have decided to back a horse i will try my damndest to get on at the best possible price,but i tend to view value in the long term,IE if your annual ROI is acceptable then you must have been obtaining value on balance.

[mathare]

No i tend to look at value in a different way to most,the only price restriction i apply is odds on no bet,and fortunately in the type of race i analise this is an infrequent occurrence.Once i have decided to back a horse i will try my damndest to get on at the best possible price,but i tend to view value in the long term,IE if your annual ROI is acceptable then you must have been obtaining value on balance.Then perhaps the small fun multiples is the best way for you to really establish whether it's worth backing your selections in that manner. Use a sum you don't mind losing and see how it goes.