Grand national

[bryn]

I have placed a bet on "Big fella thanks" to win the Grand national @ 25/1.
And after his win yesterday the odds has gone down to 10/1.
Can anyone advice on what action if any I should do. I was thinking of laying it to loose for a free 15/1 bet or lay it for a profit either way win or lose.
Thanks in advance
Bryn

[TheOldhamWhisper]

I'd take the free bet.

[neilb7]

Depends how much your bet is Bryn ?

i cant advise on what you should do, but from a hard lesson the other week i had Tricky Trickster at around 19/20 and i layed it off when it went down to 10 or 11

of course it won and meant i would have been a couple of hundred better off than i was:splapme

from that lesson i will always stick now with my win bet and just let it run..

[bryn]

Depends how much your bet is Bryn ?

i cant advise on what you should do, but from a hard lesson the other week i had Tricky Trickster at around 19/20 and i layed it off when it went down to 10 or 11

of course it won and meant i would have been a couple of hundred better off than i was:splapme

from that lesson i will always stick now with my win bet and just let it run..

Neil
I have £50 riding on it, if it wins @ 25/1 thats £1250

[neilb7]

Neil
I have £50 riding on it, if it wins @ 25/1 thats £1250

for £50 back in your pocket and a free 15/1 bet, i would lay it off...

if you havent had any other bets you could put the £50 on some others...

good luck .....

[Win2Win]

You either decide to trade bets or you don't. For trading use a seperate account, don't mic it with Lay/Win bets. As Neil points out, messing about can cost you money.

[mick56]

Hi bryn and well done i like to see anyone beat the market.I can see the attraction in laying off to be on a bet to nothing,but if you had good reasons to think the horse would win the national which now have been futher vindicated by the current odds my advice would be to hang on to what you have got sob. good fortune whatever your decision.

[bryn]

Keith and Mick
You are right I will let it run @ 25/1. I really should have done it each way.
Thanks

[mathare]

Just to add my opinion to this, if I were you Bryn I would wait till the race market on the day is put up and check the odds again then. You can always leave an order to lay it off for a chunk in-running if it does shorten.

The National is still a month away and a lot can happen between now and then. As Mick says, you had a reason for sticking £50 on it at 25/1 and were justified in doing so according to the market moves. If the horse doesn't make the starting line for whatever reason you have lost the opportunity to have traded out but no more money than you would have done had it not shortened to 10/1. If you trade out and it wins you'll be kicking yourself. If it runs and doesn't win, again you could have saved your stake but when you struck the bet you felt it was solid enough for £50 on the nose. What I am saying is a lot can happen in the next month and no-one really knows how it will all go down.

If your selection gets prominent in the race I would be tempted to lay it off to cover your stake at least.

[mick56]

hi bryn i was just thinking we could have the makings of an interesting thread here by asking Do any other members invest in the Ante Post markets?

This is an area where i dont dabble hence my interest in any views / experiences of other members.

[lowe1]

I have had £25 on tricky Trickster at 18/1 about 2 months ago :thumbs

[mick56]

Hi lowe1 nice one mate,on reading your post the first thought i had was you might be able to do a bit of bussiness with bryn.and there's an idea a win2win punters co operative!.

There is bound to be some boring legislation which prevents this,but i can certainly see the potential.

[Godspot]

Keith and Mick
You are right I will let it run @ 25/1. I really should have done it each way.
Thanks

I think you're sitting pretty - he's set to carry less than 11 stone which is no bad thing & would keep hold but maybe agree with Mathare (Crikey! No!) a touch too...

I was going to start a thread around the prospects of Niche Market after his recent run against Denman - still feel the official h'capper should have upped him & Tricky Trickster a lot more than the 3lb or so that he did. Statistically speaking, TT being a 7yo, none since 1940 have won, he's up against it & NM on 11-4, he is too but otherwise has a winning profile. Quite fancy, Snowy Morning but am going to wait until the lower weights sort themselves out a bit & having said that I don't that last years' winner has been over-burdoned either.

Enjoy the interim whatever!

[Win2Win]

You could always just lay off enough to get your stake back, and have a free bet.

[wb]

I cases like this, I generally lay off just enough to cover my stake. If he loses, no harm done and if he wins, you still have a nice bet.

[Godspot]

I think you're sitting pretty - he's set to carry less than 11 stone which is no bad thing

But according to Nick Mordin's latest - perhaps not - reckons he's going to have trouble with the long run-in @ Aintree.....

[Godspot]

Quite fancy, Snowy Morning but am going to wait until the lower weights sort themselves out a bit & having said that I don't think that last year's winner has been over-burdoned either.


11 7 Mon Mome - would that be the most carried since Red Rum?

Going to take something to beat him after his Gold Cup 3rd - have gone off Snowy Morning (too many mistakes last year?) somewhat and prefer a fresh State Of Play but My Will is arguably best off at the weights on last years running but still has 4l's to find. Perhaps Willie Mullins' other runner, Arbor Supreme on 10 8 is interesting but at this stage Mon Mome looks solid?

[barrelmaniac]

What date is the national?

[TheGoodGuy]

What date is the national?

Saturday 10th April

:thumbs

[barrelmaniac]

Saturday 10th April

:thumbs



:yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes: that soon! :yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes:


I usually take a kicking in the big festivals, so another one so soon will probably not be so good for me!

[mick56]

Hi BM i never get excited about the festivals from a betting point of view,and often end up doing a lot of work for nothing,last week for instance i put in many hours of work on the hcaps to come up with just one bet which lost!.

But i do enjoy watching the best horses race against each other,and from a betting angle noting some of the horses for next time can prove profitable.

[Win2Win]

Not so soon really, sometimes it is only a 2 week break!!

[Godspot]

But i do enjoy watching the best horses race against each other,and from a betting angle noting some of the horses for next time can prove profitable.

That is almost:

"My best advice (& this coming from someone who had a profitable meet) for the meeting though, is to watch every race closely & make notes of everything you see. I guarantee they'll provide you with many great bets over the next year."

Word 4 word, N Mordin last week's column

Take today - I thought it interesting that Synchronised had swerved the 4 miler (on account of the ground not being soft enough) for the Midlands National. & if Melange does anything in the 5.10, I'll be chuffed!

[mick56]

Bryns 25/1 on big fella looking very sweet now,and the best of luck mate.

The national is not a race i normally bet in,but have been going through the form today and the one i keep coming back to is Character Building,plenty of 20/1 on offer and i am tempted to risk 1pt win and 1/4pt place.

Any views on this ones chance?

[Godspot]

Bryns 25/1 on big fella looking very sweet now,and the best of luck mate.

The national is not a race i normally bet in,but have been going through the form today and the one i keep coming back to is Character Building,plenty of 20/1 on offer and i am tempted to risk 1pt win and 1/4pt place.

Any views on this ones chance?

First off - Big Fella Thanks

BIG FELLA THANKS LOOKS A SUSPECT NATIONAL FAVOURITE

I can understand why last year's Grand National sixth BIG FELLA THANKS (39) was promoted to favouritism for this year's race following his win over an inadequate two and a half miles in a valuable Grade 3 at Newbury. But the stats say he's an unlikely National winner, and there has to be a concern about the way he eased himself up on the run in.

In fact I thought Big Fella Thanks was a pretty safe chuck out at Newbury because there were only nine runners and he's shown repeatedly that he loses interest in small fields. He even tried to pull himself up once in a four runner race at Taunton.

What I hadn't taken account of was that nine runners might just provide enough cover for Big Fella Thanks with a very clever ride from Barry Geraghty.
Geraghty ensured that Big Fella Thanks was surrounded by horses almost all the way through the contest. His mount never had the chance to lose interest. In fact he moved really well throughout.

However Geraghty couldn't keep Big Fella Thanks covered up forever, so after the last he asked him to go clear. Big Fella Thanks quickly opened up a gap of three lengths but almost as quickly he started to ease himself up. The line came in time on the short run in and he was saved.

Even assuming that Big Fella Thanks jumps the National course once more and somehow manages to get to the head of affairs in the closing stages there is one huge problem, and that is the run in. There is a half mile run in at Aintree. By the end of the race Big Fella Thanks will be really tired and if he's good enough to win he'll be lucky to have any company from the last. So how on earth is his jockey going to keep him going for a full half mile? N Mordin

It's going to be interesting & while I don't really want to keep spamming N Mordin, it just so happens, Mick, that you have opted for:

"If you put a gun to my head & made me pick one from the four, I'd go for Character Building."

His final four from a list of 11 - that in recent seasons horses with similar profiles have won 3 of the last 4 Nationals - Arbor Supreme, Character Building, Chelsea Harbour & Mr Pointment.

Arbor Supreme, he says, looks the most obvious but if it came up soft then Chelsea Harbour, is weighted to beat him & at 100/1, interesting!

[mick56]

Hi GS thanks for your reply,i do not read N.Mordin based on previouse articles from him which you have posted he appears to work on stats and trends?,which while they can be useful are not an area that i put a lot of emphasis on,or not the type hyped up by the racing press anyway.

The national is not a race i would normally bet on,but when i handicapped the runners Character Building on my figs was the only + rated horse in the race,the rating comes from last season but the races he has had this season where both in unsuitable events and he was not equipped with the tongue tie which appeared to work for him last year.
He will stay and i think the course will suit partically the long run in.
So that is a brief summery of why i feel he could be worth a bet.

An interesting foot note yesturday evening i decided to have a bet on the horse,one of the leading exponents of best odds guaranteed now only allow this if you place the bet on line,So i attempted to do so asking for £50 e/w and £150 win at thier 20/1, i was offered £50 ew plus a futher £48? at the 20/1.This in a race where the turnover will be millions.

[barrelmaniac]

Hi GS thanks for your reply,i do not read N.Mordin based on previouse articles from him which you have posted he appears to work on stats and trends?,which while they can be useful are not an area that i put a lot of emphasis on,or not the type hyped up by the racing press anyway.

The national is not a race i would normally bet on,but when i handicapped the runners Character Building on my figs was the only + rated horse in the race,the rating comes from last season but the races he has had this season where both in unsuitable events and he was not equipped with the tongue tie which appeared to work for him last year.
He will stay and i think the course will suit partically the long run in.
So that is a brief summery of why i feel he could be worth a bet.

An interesting foot note yesturday evening i decided to have a bet on the horse,one of the leading exponents of best odds guaranteed now only allow this if you place the bet on line,So i attempted to do so asking for £50 e/w and £150 win at thier 20/1, i was offered £50 ew plus a futher £48? at the 20/1.This in a race where the turnover will be millions.

Its a bit strange that they wouldnt take your bet in a race with such high turnover.
Why don't you place a win bet with betfair, and then also a bet nearer the time when they have the place exchange?

[mick56]

Hi BM i do all my betting on BF now but the speculation on this race was going to be a one off,so i wanted to keep it separate from my BF account.

But the above is one reason why people are leaving bookmakers and putting thier money on the exchanges ?.

[bryn]

Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?

[mick56]

hi bryn the horse does not no what price he is,and anyway for you he is not 7/1 but 25/1
i like to see anyone beat the market and you are sitting pretty there mate.

[barrelmaniac]

I think that if it was me I would trade off a little........ A free bet (or almost a free bet) on the national is a good thing, the national is a rather unique race in my opinion, there are so many things that can happen like free horses getting in the way etc.

I would trade off at least part of the bet, you are in such a good situation with the market moving like it has.


If it was a system bet I would not trade it off, but from what I can gather here its a fun bet that has worked out pretty well so far.

[Godspot]

Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?

Oh! You thought it strange about 7/1 & wanted thoughts on that? Trust me to go off on a tangent & do a piece on the merit of their worths - save to say, that 7/1 now doesn't mean anything other than the bookies don't want any more money for that horse for the time being...

My worst National has to be Lord Gyllene's, 'I'm not touching that 7/1 favourite!' As he had been all year up until about 30 seconds before the off when he went for a walk in the market & all of a sudden I'm choking on my beer, 'WTF is he doing at 14/1?' For some reason, I knew then that he was the winner & that I had missed one. Bad day but

Fully respect his chances but does that extra year on his back, after being 6th last year, constitute a stone improvement? He’ll have to find a little more than that to finish in front of Mon Mome I reckon–

I could make a strong case to suggest Mon Mome has been gifted a fair chance of a repeat -

In 2005, Hedgehunter won by 14l’s, carrying 11-1 with a rating of 144 – the following year he lost by 6l’s under the welter burden of 11-12 off a rating of 156. [carrying 11lb more rated 12lb higher]

Last year, Mon Mome won by 12l’s carrying 11 0 with a rating of 148, this year he gets in on 11-7 rated 155 – so he’s already won with a higher rating & now he’s trying to follow up with a lower weight & rating than Hedgehunter who only lost by 6l’s - so here we have the highest rated winner for some time (I'll confirm this), carrying 7lb more & rated 7lb higher but

[B]Hedgehunter was one of those obliging favs: He’d fallen in the race the year before but had just returned to winning form as a chaser prior to his win after being racing over hurdles to preserve his mark. He had been placed in the Hennessy (Newbury in November, class form) & Welsh National before that. Though I didn’t back him, he lacked a decent speed figure for me but thought he was a worthy favourite & the most probable winner.

Grittar, the 1982 winner, he was made favourite after running 6th in that year’s Gold Cup but he had also won the previous season’s Aintree Foxhunter Chase, he carried 11-5. Bit before my time & the Racing Post’s, had to get the books out for that.

Comply Or Die, he was a joint favourite, he’d also been placed in a Hennessy but had also ran a cracking speed figure at Newcastle after the National weights had come out in February which made him look glaringly, ‘well-in’ at the weights. I was out of racing this year but if I had seen his figures, I would have liked.

Earth Summit, may have been lucky that the ground came up soft/heavy as & when it did for him to oblige as favourite, he’d clocked a decent speed figure in similar conditions when he won the Welsh National en route – always remember as being one of the easiest Nationals to call.

Rough Quest, well! Bar the whopping girt speed figure that he had earned when coming 2nd in the Gold Cup just prior to, which made him easily the best h’capped horse in the race & maybe the fact that he too had been placed in a Hennessy – quite reminds me of your, Big Fella Thanks. In that, like BFT has unseated twice in his last 7 starts, Rough Quest had fallen but also, was one of those that didn’t want to be in front too soon. Even though massively well handicapped, still considered by some as a career best ride by jockey, Mick Fitzgerald.

In conclusion, I’d say BFT lacks the recent speed figure of Rough Quest & Comply Or Die & the big h’cap experience of Hedgehunter & Earth Summit besides… Besides the Racing Post suggesting he’s the one to take from the race last year for this & the fact that he’s gotten in under 11 stone – your 25/s would have made a great EW bet but & to be honest, I seem to have spent more time looking at previous winners than I have this year’s runners to suggest who really warrants favouritism…. I’ll be back!

[bryn]

Very interesting read Godspot. Thank you for your thoughts:thumbs

[mick56]

Any one been following developments for Character Building,horse just been sold,new owners replacing amature booked for the ride,with yet to be announced professional jockey,this should be interesting because there will be plenty who if free will want the ride.My 20/1 looking a bit sweeter.

[lowe1]

Some stats for the national past winners

The last 3 winners have all be 10.6 weight, in the last 15 years most have been between 10.5 and 10.7, only 2 horses ran last year at 10.6 mon mone being one of them.

The last 10 winners all share the following characteristics:-

* 8 to 12 years old
* Handicap rating above 135 on the day
* Weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
* won over at least three miles
* run in at least ten chases
* won a chase worth at least £17,000

Only the following 6 runners meet all these:-

Snowy Morning 16/1
Arbor Supreme 16/1
Hello Bud 40/1
Niche Market 16/1
Dream Alliance 40/1
Eric's Charm 40/1

And my choice is none of them :laugh:laugh

[mick56]

Interesting news that Nina Carberry booked for my bet Character building,i have previously posted about female jockeys being under valued,but am not sure what to make of this.
Still the market has reacted by all going 16/1,and with the many once a year female punters likely to back the horse i can see weight of money causing a futher reduction.
What ever the outcome if she is involved in the finish it will provide a much needed puff for racing.
I have £200 win + £50 place at 20/1 and because this was a one off speculative wager i am inclined to go SOB and stand the lot.
Whatever occurs on SAT my main wish is that all horses and riders get round safely.

[Godspot]

Any one been following developments for Character Building,horse just been sold,new owners replacing amature booked for the ride,with yet to be announced professional jockey,this should be interesting because there will be plenty who if free will want the ride.My 20/1 looking a bit sweeter.

It gets more interesting by the minute!

I was going to write a little book about Party Politics 1992 winner, which was the first horse to spring to mind when I read that but later found it was the same connections. This was one of my best Nationals & I would have won a small fortune in doubles if Labour had won that year’s election by as many seats as the Tories eventually did.

I’d had him noted for the race some time before, maybe after he too was 2nd in both the Hennessy & Welsh National before Xmas, I was targeting the race as the middle leg of an EW accumulator, I was trying to get some serious money onto Marling in the 1,000 Guineas (God, God, if only she had had bigger nostrils, or darn Walter Swinburn if he hadn’t jumped ship to the ruddy foreigner, Hatoof but)

He was marked out also as the biggest horse in training of his time – anyone know who this years’ biggest is, cos I don’t?

He incidentally too was made 7/1 favourite for the race the following year & I was keen on a repeat but the race ended up as VOID

Strictly speaking - Character Building has 10l’s to find with Mon Mome on their running at Chelt Dec 08 & 7l’s to find with Dream Alliance on their 2007 Hennessy running. Is now to be ridden by Nina Carberry who rode:

Forest Gunner – Trained by R Ford – 33/1 12yo finished 9th & last behind Numbersixvalverde(Ire) back in 2006 – was the last horse to be ridden by a woman in the Grand National.

Not sure but we’ll be looking at a bit of history if he’s placed – from what I can work out, the best a woman jockey has done so far is complete the course in last place!

The first woman to ride, 1977, Charlotte Brew. The first to complete the course, Geraldine Rees, 1982 - came across an interesting little site looking that up:
http://www.grand-national-world.co.uk/gnw/the_race/tales/women.html

[mathare]

Carrie Ford finished 5th on Forest Gunner in 2005

[mathare]

Just come across someone's trend analysis of the race and their shortlist is:

Snowy Morning (best current fixed odds, 16-1)
Priests Leap (100-1)
Ballyfitz (150-1)
Ollie Magern (150-1)
Hello Bud (50-1)

They have 15 of the last 16 winners apparently, not sure from how many slections though.

I will be putting my own trends-based shortlist together when time permits

[Godspot]

Just come across someone's trend analysis of the race and their shortlist is:

Snowy Morning (best current fixed odds, 16-1)
Priests Leap (100-1)
Ballyfitz (150-1)
Ollie Magern (150-1)
Hello Bud (50-1)

They have 15 of the last 16 winners apparently, not sure from how many slections though.

I will be putting my own trends-based shortlist together when time permits

In the last 12 runnings there have been exactly 100 runners who failed to make the first three in one of their last four starts - 1 was placed!

That leaves you with Ballyfitz & Snowy Morning, the latter of which just happens to be the only contender to pass on all four principal trends as marked up by Alistair Whitehouse-Jones in this week's Weekender.

I think he's solid EW material.

[Godspot]

That leaves you with Ballyfitz &

Have a look at his form from Nov/Dec 08

Giving 3lb & btn 7l's by What A Friend who just won his 2nd Grade 1 since today & giving 8lb & an 11l's beating to the present favourite, Big Fella Thanks!

Seems slightly overpriced to me ? ?

[mathare]

OK, here's my trend analysis for the Grand National.

Only Red Rum has won carrying 11st 5lb since 1957
No 7yo winners for 69 years
No 6yo winners for 97 years
Only 4 of last 36 6yo and 7yo runners completed the course
10 of last 16 winners were 9yo or 10yo
Last teenager to win was 86 years ago
Only 3 winning favs in last 21 years
Every winner since 1970 had previously won over 3m

So if we eliminate every runner carrying 11st 5lb or more and those aged 6yo (none), 7yo and 13yo or older (none) we're left with 31 horses. If we then filter down to 9yo and 10yo horses we have 18 runners, not including the forecast favourite. Now let's drop those without a previous win over 3m leaving us with:

Don't Push It
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Cloudy Lane
Nozic
My Will
Beat The Boys
Preists Leap
Snowy Morning
State of Play
Character Building
Ellerslie George
Ballyfitz

So the winner is in there, somewhere. But that's almost a third of the field so further refining is required.

Only three of the last 16 winners started at greater than 16/1 so can we rule out any of the rank outsiders? Perhaps, but let's just have a quick check of some of that form quickly...

Negatives
Dream Alliance has only 1 win in the last 3 years
Nozic last won in Dec 08 and has been well beaten several times since
My Will last won in Nov 06
Snowy Morning has one win over 3m and it came in 2007

Interesting
Preists Leap has only just got the distance before but stayed on and beat Black Apalachi
Ballyfitz gave Big Fella Thanks a proper beating back in Nov 08

If we rule out those I have negative form thoughts about we're down to 9.

Beat The Boys is the forecast outsider of the lot and with that 16/1 mark in mind is eliminated.

AP McCoy has to win this race at some point but with no wins from 14 attempts his mount has to eliminated on the trends. 7 left.

Ballyfitz and Preists Leap have things going for them so Ellerslie George is ruled out as I have filled my big price slots (he says, quite arbitrarily).

So I have reduced the field to:

Niche Market (18/1)
Cloudy Lane (40/1)
Preists Leap (150/1)
State of Play (20/1)
Character Building (20/1)
Ballyfitz (80/1)

I'd like to have got it down to 5 runners max but I can't easily drop any of those 6 so we'll stick with that.

[mick56]

your above most interesting matt,as i initially treated the race as a normal handicap and rated the runners,and my top two are amongst your 6 on trends Character building 1lb in front of Niche market,

[mathare]

Just uncovered some more trends that would reorder my list with Niche Market, Cloudy Lane and State of Play favoured ahead of the other three although all would remain on my shortlist. It's just that those three hit some of the trends harder than the others. I quite fancy those two big priced runners for a potential place though.

[mick56]

When i analysed the national i did not expect to find any horse that i would want to back,and the fact that Character Building kept coming up as a potential winner caused me to decide on a bet in a race i have not wagered on for 20yrs.To day i am also backing Carlitos in the preceding race the current BOG of 8/1 appears good value.

It is probably also > 20yrs since i last placed a multiple bet,but with the prices of 8/1 and 20/1,i have just placed a £50ew double,its a bit of fun for which i will probably have to pay!.

What ever the outcome of mine or your wagers my main hope is that all participant's complete safely.Good luck to all.

[Win2Win]

I'll just dutch 1/2 the field and trade out at a profit at some point, guaranteed in a race 4.5 miles :thumbs