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View Full Version : The John Smiths Grand National (April 10th)



vegyjones
25th March 2010, 01:28
Not long now, offices and pubs everywhere will soon be be preparing their sweepstakes, the bookines will be preparing for one of their biggest betting day of the year.

The handicapper has had his say...


BHA HEAD of handicapping Phil Smith is pleased that all the field for this year's John Smith's Grand National should be running in the handicap, but said that he would raise several leading contenders based on recent performances since the weights were announced on February 16.

Speaking at Aintree's Northern Media Lunch on Tuesday, Smith said: "I'd expect the bottom weight to be 10st 4lb or 10st 5lb judging by what has happened in previous years, so from a handicapping point of view, it's good that everything looks like being in the handicap.

"Big Fella Thanks's performance in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury promoted the Paul Nicholls-trained eight-year-old to general 8-1 favouritism, and Smith would raise the runner in the weights if he could. He said: "I think Big Fella Thanks is interesting on 10st 12lb as I'd have him 5lb higher."

William Hill Trophy second The Package, and Bobbyjo Chase one-two Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi would also be raised, Smith added.

"There have been several horses that have done well since we did the weights and among those I'd have higher now are Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi, who I'd both raise by 4lb," he said.

"The Package ran a fantastic race at Cheltenham and I'd have him 6lb higher."

James Moffat's Chief Dan George has won twice since the weights were unveiled, and as a consequence would be nearly a stone higher than his weight of 10st 2lb, according to Smith.

He said: "The horse that is technically best in is Chief Dan George, who has won twice since the weights and would be 12lb higher but the flaw is that he is less than 50-50 to get into the race."

Big Fella Thanks form has been undeniably good in the run up to the big race, and Chief Dan George was impressive at Cheltenham.

Black Apalache, going so well in last years event run welll on his reappearance this year but was beaten by stablemate Vic Ventura.

Comply or Die, last years second, hasn't had the best of preparations, whilst Mon Mome, last years winner, ran ominously well in the Gold Cup.

My personal preference at this stage, due to his defeat of Black Apalache is Vic Ventura.

Anyone else any thoughts leading up to the National Meeting?

Godspot
25th March 2010, 03:57
My first fancy for this was Niche Market but 11 4 ?

At the moment I seem to be in agreement with Tom Segal - who says of Mon Mome in this weeks Weekender 'has to come into the equation again.' But 11 7 ?

On another page, Malcolm Heyhoe, who just about had a profitable Cheltenham, puts up 33/1 Ballyholland as his EW suggestion.

Nick Mordin is doing a feature on the race next week & will no doubt right off everyone above 11 1

Venetia Williams reckons he is better this year & the Gold Cup run proved that & I'm inclined to think off've 155, he is still well handicapped over this longer distance - it's going to be interesting....

Some of the lower weights:

Interesting that Maljimar swerved Cheltenham this year ?

Whinstone Boy, Faasel & Chief Dan George, all need plenty to pull out.

I'll get back with Mord's qualifiers next week.

Godspot
25th March 2010, 18:42
My personal preference at this stage, due to his defeat of Black Apalache is Vic Ventura.

Anyone else any thoughts leading up to the National Meeting?

I wouldn't give up on Black Apalache Veg - this is what Mordin says about that last run - it was run in a fair time but

VIC VENTURI (41) clocked a time that puts him within shouting distance of the best three mile chasers when winning the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase by eight lengths. He was cruising around the home turn and had all his rivals under pressure by then. His stablemate Black Apalachi stayed on to take second but Vic Venturi was always well in control.

Vic Venturi is an excellent jumper and has even won over the National fences. But he's a bit below average size and this surely makes it hard for him to fight for position in big fields.

He did win a twelve runner point to point where only three of his rivals finished. But under rules Vic Venturi has lost all twelve chases he's contested with nine or more runners. His record in smaller fields however has been brilliant on soft and heavy ground. He would have won all five times he's run in chases with eight or fewer runners on soft or heavy ground if one photo in a Grade 3 had gone his way.

I recognise that the big objective for Vic Venturi is the Grand National. But there will be around fourty runners in that race and Vic Venturi will be set to carry at least 11-6 in a race where all 103 horses carrying 11-2 or more have lost in the last 25 runnings. I'd like to see him given a shot at the Guinness Gold Cup afterwards at Punchestown. There's a fair shot he'll get his ground in that race which often attracts a small field. N Mordin

Dear oh dear, that last stat makes it harder for Mon Mome than that of a 10yo winning the Gold Cup (0-31, last 10, 0-35 last 11) - can he succeed where Denman & Kauto failed?

TooTall
25th March 2010, 19:33
[QUOTE=Godspot;528161]
I recognise that the big objective for Vic Venturi is the Grand National. But there will be around fourty runners in that race and Vic Venturi will be set to carry at least 11-6 in a race where all 103 horses carrying 11-2 or more have lost in the last 25 runnings.

half the field will carry over 11st these days bottom weight will only be 10-6. I think you can pretty much rule out that stat now the handicapper has messed the race up. Didnt the 1st 4 home last year all lump round over 11st

lowe1
25th March 2010, 19:42
Tricky Trickster all the way :thumbs:thumbs:D:D:D

Godspot
26th March 2010, 03:10
[QUOTE=Godspot;528161]
I recognise that the big objective for Vic Venturi is the Grand National. But there will be around fourty runners in that race and Vic Venturi will be set to carry at least 11-6 in a race where all 103 horses carrying 11-2 or more have lost in the last 25 runnings.

half the field will carry over 11st these days bottom weight will only be 10-6. I think you can pretty much rule out that stat now the handicapper has messed the race up. Didnt the 1st 4 home last year all lump round over 11st

I was sort of coming to that - that is precisely why I think Mon Mome is going to defy the stat - that post was more to do with Viv venturi's preference for small fields....