Matt's Home Win System

[MattR]

I've been using some data I've built up since January, originally for another system I'm running but have now added a rating system to it. From this I've backtested a system that looks promising so as I'm going to start it for real from tomorrow I thought I may as well start it up on here too as commemoration of the death of win2winRSS. :biggrin:

All selections will have odds of Evens or above and will be playing at home.

Stakes will be 3% of the bank with a starting bank of £333.33 because I want to start with a £10 stake so there. (and yes i know technically that isn't £10 :wink: )

Figures from the backtesting are:
37 wins from 63 bets
Average odds of 2.31
Profit to a level £10 stake would have been £210.16



Starting Bank £333.33
Next Stake £10


Selections will follow in due course.


Should mention that this is for all leagues and the selections will be a little thinner on the ground until the main european seasons are settled down, for now any selections will probably be from scandinavia, russia, japan, brazil and Ireland

[TheGoodGuy]

Good luck with this Matt......I'll be following with interest.

:thumbs

[Win2Win]

......I'll be following with interest.

:thumbs

What interest rate? :smile:

[scoobydoo]

Remember, you better make a profit or you won't be able to go back to Canada! :wink:

[Win2Win]

If he doesn't show a profit I'll put RSS Feeds on his username :wink:

[yerotsluap]

looking forward to seeing how this goes

[MattR]

Thanks guys, I'm hoping it will go well over the long term.



If he doesn't show a profit I'll put RSS Feeds on his username :wink:

:yikes: :pray: :biggrin:

[mathare]

Good luck with this Matt, will be watching for sure. £210 profit from £630 staked is not at all bad going and it will be interesting to see whether you can maintain this sort of profit rate. Any idea what the long-term ROI should settle down to?

Seeing as you've posted this I am now tempted to run one of my systems on here too to give you a bit of competition...

[MattR]

I don't really know Mat. The breakdown per month was a little mixed but February I didn't get chance to collect a lot of data and March was only from the 19th onwards so those months don't have a lot of games to really make any long term prediction over. Of course 63 games in total isn't a lot either but I would say looking at the months where I had a lot of games to take the qualifiers from then there were probably only 10-20 more games that would have been qualifiers. There will be more now it's live though as there was no discernable pattern to it being league specific so I will try it on as many leagues as I have time for. Mon-Fri that should mean pretty much all games will be looked at but weekend games during the main season some of the lesser leagues I may not have time for, we'll see though, I'd like to.

Here's the qualifier's by month wins/losses
Dec 2 - 1
Jan 4 - 6
Feb 2 - 2
Mar 9 - 3
Apr 8 - 3
May 10 - 4
Jun 1 - 1
Jul 3 - 5

As you can see Mar/Apr/May were very good. The fact all the odds are over evens means anything approaching a 50% strike rate should see profit. July is almost in profit despite the 37% SR as there was a 3.25 odds winner (and a 3.40 one in May)


Yeah, post it Mat, the more the merrier, look forward to seeing it. I know you've been crunching some numbers will be good to see what you've found. :smile:

[MattR]

Ok, we have the first qualifiers today - or rather over night as we start with two qualifiers from the Brazilian 2nd Division. Haven't had more than a couple of these in the previous data so we'll see how it goes.

I will be using Betfair for all these so will take 5% commission off (assuming I get any winners :ooo ) All selections are the home team


Brazil 2nd Div
Icasa v Guaratingueta 2.16
Portuguesa v Sao Caetano 2.04


There should be a couple more for tomorrow and also Sunday from the look of things.

[scoobydoo]

Good luck Matt :smile:

[barrelmaniac]

That looks like a good return Matt, hopefully you will get off a good start. Good luck Its always good when members put their money where their mouths are.

:thumbs

[MattR]

Thanks Scooby and Barrel.

The longest losing run so far would have been 3 but it's hard to gauge how it will fare as there could be 5 or 6 qualifiers one day then 3 over 5 days or something. If it can hit say 4/9 on a regular basis then it should be good.

[Iron Chris]

Good Luck Matt...:thumbs

[vegyjones]

Go Matty, go matty, go matty!

[MattR]

:68711_thanx: guys.



No pressure then :laugh

[MattR]

First two games done

Icasa v Guaratingueta 2.16 DREW 0-0
Portuguesa v Sao Caetano 2.04 WON 3-1


Profit/Loss -0.09

New Bank 333.26

New Stake 10.00

Today's qualifiers

Brazil Div 2
ASA v America MG 2.44
Parana v Nautico 2.15

MLS
Philadelphia v New England 2.14

[MattR]

2 from 3 today :smile:

Brazil Div 2
ASA v America MG 2.44 WON 2-1
Parana v Nautico 2.15 WON 4-0

MLS
Philadelphia v New England 2.14 DREW 1-1

Day
2/3
Profit 14.75

Total
3/5 60%
Profit 14.66

New Bank 347.99
New Stake 10.47




Sunday's Qualifiers:

Norway Div 1
Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 2.16

Brazil Campeonato
Gremio Prudente v Santos 2.60

[MattR]

First one is in the bag so this will see a small profit at worst on the day. If the second one can oblige it will give us a very nice start on these. :smile:

Norway Div 1
Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 2.16 WON 4-0

[MattR]

Sunday results

Norway Div 1
Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 2.16 WON 4-0

Brazil Campeonato
Gremio Prudente v Santos 2.60 LOST 1-2


Day
1/2
Profit 1.56



Total
4/7 57%
Profit 16.22


New Bank 349.55

New Stake 10.49


No qualifiers for Monday

[MattR]

Right, now the Euro cornflakes cup is out of the way for the week we can get back to some league football.

One qualifer for saturday:

Stake 10.49

Brazil Div 2

ASA v Bahia 2.28


and one for sunday, stake to be determined yet

Swedish Eliteseries

Halmstads v Elfsborg 3.45

[MattR]

Both lost at the weekend

Stake 10.49
Brazil Div 2
ASA v Bahia 2.28 LOST 0-1

Stake 10.19
Swedish Eliteseries
Halmstads v Elfsborg 3.45 LOST 0-3


New Bank 329.36

Two for tonight

New Stake 9.88

Brazil 2nd Div
Guaratingueta v Nautico Recife 2.36
Icasa v Brasiliense 2.18

[MattR]

Two winners last night :smile:

Brazil 2nd Div
Guaratingueta v Nautico Recife 2.36 WON 1-0
Icasa v Brasiliense 2.18 WON 3-0

Profit: 23.93

Results to date:

Bets: 11
Won: 6
Strike Rate: 54.55%
Staked: 111.31
Profit: 19.95
ROI: 17.92%
Ave Odds: 2.36

New Bank: 353.28
Next Stake: 10.60


Looking like the next qualifiers on this should be on Friday.

[MattR]

One for tonight
Stake: 10.60

Brazil Div 2
ASA v Santo Andre 2.40

[MattR]

A winner last night :smile:


Brazil Div 2
ASA v Santo Andre 2.40 WON 2-0

Profit: 14.14

Results to date:

Bets: 12
Won: 7
Strike Rate: 58.33%
Staked: 121.91
Profit: 34.09
ROI: 27.96%
Ave Odds: 2.36


New Bank: 367.42
New Stake: 11.09

Two for today:

Brazil Div 2
Brasiliense v Guaratingueta 2.12

MLS
Real Salt Lake v Columbus Crew 2.14

[MattR]

Brazil Div 2
Brasiliense v Guaratingueta 2.12 DREW 2-2

MLS
Real Salt Lake v Columbus Crew 2.14 WON 2-0


Profit: 0.95

Results to date:

Bets: 14
Won: 8
Strike Rate: 57.14%
Staked: 143.95
Profit: 35.04
ROI: 24.34%
Ave Odds: 2.32


New Bank 368.37
New Stake 11.05


Two for today:

Swedish Div 2
Hammarby v Assyriska 2.22

Brazil Campeoneto
Gremio Prudente v Vasco De Gama 2.48

[MattR]

Swedish Div 2
Hammarby v Assyriska 2.22 WON 3-2

Brazil Campeoneto
Gremio Prudente v Vasco De Gama 2.48 LOST 1-2


Profit: 1.64


Results to date:

Bets: 16
Won: 9
Strike Rate: 56.25%
Staked: 166.05
Profit: 36.64
ROI: 22.07%
Ave Odds: 2.33


New Bank 369.97
New Stake 11.10

[MattR]

There was one qualifier for this that I was unable to post but I will include it anyway as it lost. So results to date are as follows

Results to date:

Bets: 17
Won: 9
Strike Rate: 52.94%
Staked: 177.15
Profit: 25.54
ROI: 14.42%
Ave Odds: 2.32

New Bank 3358.87
New Stake 10.77



One for tomorrow

Norway Tippeligen

Haugesund v Tromso 2.28

[MattR]

Haven't had chance to post selections the past week or so although there have only been two more anyway. The one above was a 0-0 draw and the other two were one win and one loss. I will include these in the new totals as otherwise it won't match my results and will be a pain to update!

Results to date:

Bets: 22
Won: 10
Strike Rate: 45.45%
Staked: 208.8
Profit: 18.61
ROI: 8.91%
Ave Odds: 2.31

New Bank 351.94
New Stake 10.56


No selections for next couple of days.

[MattR]

One for tonight:

Reall Salt Lake v Colorado 2.06 stake 10.56

[MattR]

Real Salt Lake v Colorado 2.06 10.56 DREW 1-1




New Stake 10.24
New Bank 341.38


One for today,

Sweden Div 2

Landskrona v Assyriska 2.08