mathare
1st October 2010, 12:48
It seems that at least a few people enjoy these monthly reviews, and they benefit me, so I will continue to do them for the time being anyway.
I said last month that August looked like being a stellar month before dropping away significantly over the last few days. September was almost the opposite of that. The poor run of results that started at the end of August continued into September and over an 8 day spell I lost the equivalent of two months profit. Ouch! Things bobbled about during the middle of the month and while I was on holiday I missed a very big winner (50/1 SP, over 200 on Betfair) that really would have transformed my month, as well as giving me by biggest priced winner of all time. But it wasn't to be. Quite a few days while I was away I was able to get all my bets on as normal. We'd nip out in the morning and come back lunchtime/early afternoon by which time all the information I normally use for my bets was available and I could bet as normal. But on other days I'd run Auto-Sys when I got up, upload all that and then dump my bets on before we went out for the day. And then I only had the eBook systems, not the other bets I get by email which is how I missed out on the big winner. But I had a nice holiday all the same.
While I was away I read a book (Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch) that had a serious impact on my thinking. I have known for a long time that I am basically risk averse but after reading Veitch's book I realised that if I want to start making decent profits (which I do) then I need to press the edges I have more. That means upping the stakes on some systems and services that are performing well and have a long-term record of doing so. I've been careful not to overstretch myself or push my banks to potential breaking point but I have drastically increased stakes on a few systems and it has made all the difference as the last week or so has been tremendous, to the point where I have finished the month in the black, something I didn't think was possible earlier this month.
Another big change I have made this month is the way I record my horse racing bets. I began to realise that the way I was doing things wasn't working as well as it could so I changed things around and reorganised my spreadsheet. That means there are a few changes to the usual figures this month, but I'll hopefully remember to highlight and explain those as and when they crop up. I think the main change is that previously I had A List - Win and A List - Place whereas these have now been combined into a single A List entry.
Watch List
Back in July I placed a few services on my Watch List with a view to monitoring them for a few months and dropping them unless they picked up a bit. There are currently four systems on that list, namely Michael Stoute, CD Lays, Trainer 3 and Max Lays.
Michael Stoute was basically breakeven this month (-0.13pts) and after only picking up a couple of points profit last month I have decided to drop this one from my portfolio. August and September have been the best months for this system according to my records and if a couple of points is all the system can muster in that period I'm not really interested.
Since I put CD Lays on the Watch List is has turned right around, +16.46pts in September following on from a profit of +22.56pts in August so this one can come off the Watch List, for now at least. It's still down 4.77pts overall this year but things are starting to look a lot better than they were a couple of months back so that's enough to save this system.
The Trainer 3 system had a stunning January (+18.40pts) but since then I have had six losing months in the last eight, including a loss of 2.59pts in September. Not good enough I'm afraid and I am dropping this system.
Max Lays is having few selections these days and lost 8.00pts this month. I don't think I need this in my portfolio any longer and this will also be dropped with immediate effect.
Breakdown
The portfolio breakdown for September looks like this:
Good (profitable)
W2W (7 systems, +64.05pts)
LTO3 +8.47pts
CD Lays +16.46pts
Lay'em +17.46pts
Double Top +0.68pts
Info Rated +8.68pts
NH Media +3.72pts
Ladies Lays +8.57
Non-W2W (10 systems, +252.01pts)
NailedOn AW +19.15pts
A List +5.64pts
Easy Money Lays +23.56pts
NailedOn Lays +44.03pts
Football Elite +1.75pts
FE Shortlist +7.32pts
Prem Simplex +111.56pts
Serie A Simplex +30.10pts
Away Form Portfolio +4.10pts
Game Form Portfolio +4.80pts
Bad (unprofitable)
W2W (6 systems, -39.18pts)
Johnston Track -6.34pts
First Timer -1.13pts
NHPM -21.00pts
Max Lays -8.00pts
Michael Stoute -0.13pts
Trainer 3 -2.59pts
Non-W2W (16 systems, -960.00pts)
Progeny -46.86pts
HSR -0.52pts
Classic Lays -17.03pts
Premier Lays -2.93pts
FBD -5.51pts
SPL Simplex -9.20pts
Draw Form Portfolio -3.65pts
Under Form Portfolio -7.00pts
Over Form Portfolio -12.12pts
HDA Streaks Portfolio -17.94pts
UO Streaks Portfolio -2.00
Rateform Portfolio -8.38pts
Bet Bank Alerts -6.53pts
The Insider -1.52pts
Linebacker -3.00pts
Rush Poker -815.80pts
NB. Systems and services are listed here simply to provide a full monthly record of my betting activities and their mention should not be construed as a recommendation of said system/service. The results given are mine and mine alone and do not form part of the official results for any service.
Quite a few W2W NH systems have been profitable this month, which is unusual given there hasn't been too much NH racing this month. Still, I'm not complaining. As you can see, the football hasn't gone great for me this month, and the less said about my return to the Rush Poker tables the better.
The important thing is that the month was profitable and that I continue to trim underperforming systems from my portfolio, which will surely help my long term profitability.
I said last month that August looked like being a stellar month before dropping away significantly over the last few days. September was almost the opposite of that. The poor run of results that started at the end of August continued into September and over an 8 day spell I lost the equivalent of two months profit. Ouch! Things bobbled about during the middle of the month and while I was on holiday I missed a very big winner (50/1 SP, over 200 on Betfair) that really would have transformed my month, as well as giving me by biggest priced winner of all time. But it wasn't to be. Quite a few days while I was away I was able to get all my bets on as normal. We'd nip out in the morning and come back lunchtime/early afternoon by which time all the information I normally use for my bets was available and I could bet as normal. But on other days I'd run Auto-Sys when I got up, upload all that and then dump my bets on before we went out for the day. And then I only had the eBook systems, not the other bets I get by email which is how I missed out on the big winner. But I had a nice holiday all the same.
While I was away I read a book (Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch) that had a serious impact on my thinking. I have known for a long time that I am basically risk averse but after reading Veitch's book I realised that if I want to start making decent profits (which I do) then I need to press the edges I have more. That means upping the stakes on some systems and services that are performing well and have a long-term record of doing so. I've been careful not to overstretch myself or push my banks to potential breaking point but I have drastically increased stakes on a few systems and it has made all the difference as the last week or so has been tremendous, to the point where I have finished the month in the black, something I didn't think was possible earlier this month.
Another big change I have made this month is the way I record my horse racing bets. I began to realise that the way I was doing things wasn't working as well as it could so I changed things around and reorganised my spreadsheet. That means there are a few changes to the usual figures this month, but I'll hopefully remember to highlight and explain those as and when they crop up. I think the main change is that previously I had A List - Win and A List - Place whereas these have now been combined into a single A List entry.
Watch List
Back in July I placed a few services on my Watch List with a view to monitoring them for a few months and dropping them unless they picked up a bit. There are currently four systems on that list, namely Michael Stoute, CD Lays, Trainer 3 and Max Lays.
Michael Stoute was basically breakeven this month (-0.13pts) and after only picking up a couple of points profit last month I have decided to drop this one from my portfolio. August and September have been the best months for this system according to my records and if a couple of points is all the system can muster in that period I'm not really interested.
Since I put CD Lays on the Watch List is has turned right around, +16.46pts in September following on from a profit of +22.56pts in August so this one can come off the Watch List, for now at least. It's still down 4.77pts overall this year but things are starting to look a lot better than they were a couple of months back so that's enough to save this system.
The Trainer 3 system had a stunning January (+18.40pts) but since then I have had six losing months in the last eight, including a loss of 2.59pts in September. Not good enough I'm afraid and I am dropping this system.
Max Lays is having few selections these days and lost 8.00pts this month. I don't think I need this in my portfolio any longer and this will also be dropped with immediate effect.
Breakdown
The portfolio breakdown for September looks like this:
Good (profitable)
W2W (7 systems, +64.05pts)
LTO3 +8.47pts
CD Lays +16.46pts
Lay'em +17.46pts
Double Top +0.68pts
Info Rated +8.68pts
NH Media +3.72pts
Ladies Lays +8.57
Non-W2W (10 systems, +252.01pts)
NailedOn AW +19.15pts
A List +5.64pts
Easy Money Lays +23.56pts
NailedOn Lays +44.03pts
Football Elite +1.75pts
FE Shortlist +7.32pts
Prem Simplex +111.56pts
Serie A Simplex +30.10pts
Away Form Portfolio +4.10pts
Game Form Portfolio +4.80pts
Bad (unprofitable)
W2W (6 systems, -39.18pts)
Johnston Track -6.34pts
First Timer -1.13pts
NHPM -21.00pts
Max Lays -8.00pts
Michael Stoute -0.13pts
Trainer 3 -2.59pts
Non-W2W (16 systems, -960.00pts)
Progeny -46.86pts
HSR -0.52pts
Classic Lays -17.03pts
Premier Lays -2.93pts
FBD -5.51pts
SPL Simplex -9.20pts
Draw Form Portfolio -3.65pts
Under Form Portfolio -7.00pts
Over Form Portfolio -12.12pts
HDA Streaks Portfolio -17.94pts
UO Streaks Portfolio -2.00
Rateform Portfolio -8.38pts
Bet Bank Alerts -6.53pts
The Insider -1.52pts
Linebacker -3.00pts
Rush Poker -815.80pts
NB. Systems and services are listed here simply to provide a full monthly record of my betting activities and their mention should not be construed as a recommendation of said system/service. The results given are mine and mine alone and do not form part of the official results for any service.
Quite a few W2W NH systems have been profitable this month, which is unusual given there hasn't been too much NH racing this month. Still, I'm not complaining. As you can see, the football hasn't gone great for me this month, and the less said about my return to the Rush Poker tables the better.
The important thing is that the month was profitable and that I continue to trim underperforming systems from my portfolio, which will surely help my long term profitability.