Godspot
20th April 2011, 07:19
Considering only horses that have not run for more than 90 days or more during the month of May -
A fine piece of work:
http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/ [downloadable as pdf file]
Shows that Harlestone Times in the 2.35 Epsom who is the forecast fav is more likely to place than win:
NEGATIVES
J DUNLOP
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
4/59 7% -£35.12
Win and Place record – 18/59 31% S/R
Not miserable stats by any stretch of the imagination but clearly the John Dunlop 90+ day May runners need to stretch their legs on the race track before we should consider backing them.
The place strike-rate is much better and it could be the runner’s just need their rough edges smoothed a touch before tackling targets further down the line.
P Cole
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
2/53 4% -£30.15
Win and Place record – 5/53 9% S/R
Paul Cole is another trainer who doesn’t quite have his 90+ day runners at peak form in May. A poor win & place strike-rate also is cause for concern.
All 8 furlong (1 mile) runners
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
0/20 0% -£20.00
Win and Place record – 0/20 0% S/R
For whatever reason the Paul Cole 90+ runners have a miserable time of it in May; Zero winners and Zero placed efforts suggest they should be given a wide berth.
POSITIVES
Sir Michael Stoute
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
38/133 29% -£8.91
Win and Place record – 77/133 58% S/R
It’s clear from the above that the Stoute May runners are an over bet bunch but with a 29% S/R it pays to dig a little deeper.
All 90+ runners in only Group 3 events
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
11/17 65% +£19.28
Win and Place record – 13/17 76% S/R
If we concentrate on his 90+ runners in only Group 3 events (so basically runners just below the top levels) then we get a huge improvement in the strike-rate and more importantly the LSP tells us this is an angle we can profit from.
All 90+ runners in Class 1 races
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
20/51 39% +£17.22
Win and Place record – 28/51 55% S/R
If we want to widen the search a bit further in search of more bets then we need only open it up to all Class 1 races. There is a dip in the strike-rate but the LSP still runs at a consistent level.
Favourites in all races
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
25/50 50% +£6.34
Win and Place record – 35/50 70% S/R
It’s interesting to note there is marginal profit to be squeezed out of backing the Stoute 90+ day SP favourites. It’s also interesting to note that if the money is down on one of the yards 90+ day runners then 1 in every 2 land the money.
William Haggas
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
20/83 24% +£43.11
Win and Place record – 34/83 41% S/R
Some juicy figures and profits on show from the Haggas yard’s
90+ day qualifiers.
All 3yo Maiden runners
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
8/25 32% +£40.56
Win and Place record – 13/25 52% S/R
The stats tell us it’s the 3yo maiden runners we should pay particular attention to in May. Looks like Haggas is adept at improving them over the winter after they have had a (non- winning) taste of the racetrack as a 2yo.
Newmarket
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
1/19 5% -£15.45
Win and Place record – 4/19 21% S/R
Flat HQ isn’t the happiest of hunting grounds for the yards 90+ day runners in May, possibly due to the extremely competitive nature of most Newmarket contests.
Chris Wall
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
12/53 23% +£67.61
Win and Place record – 14/53 26% S/R
A yard that are likely to slip under the radar a touch so there is a good chance of some loftily priced runners within the 90+ day crop.
All Yarmouth
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
3/4 75% +£13.49
The one runner that didn’t win started as an un-fancied 50/1
shot.
Limited runners to go on here but it is certainly an angle that at the very least we should be keeping an eye on.
All Class 6 runners
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
4/7 57% +£49.30
Taking in only the class 6 races again gives solid strike-rate and
LSP figures.
A fine piece of work:
http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/ [downloadable as pdf file]
Shows that Harlestone Times in the 2.35 Epsom who is the forecast fav is more likely to place than win:
NEGATIVES
J DUNLOP
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
4/59 7% -£35.12
Win and Place record – 18/59 31% S/R
Not miserable stats by any stretch of the imagination but clearly the John Dunlop 90+ day May runners need to stretch their legs on the race track before we should consider backing them.
The place strike-rate is much better and it could be the runner’s just need their rough edges smoothed a touch before tackling targets further down the line.
P Cole
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
2/53 4% -£30.15
Win and Place record – 5/53 9% S/R
Paul Cole is another trainer who doesn’t quite have his 90+ day runners at peak form in May. A poor win & place strike-rate also is cause for concern.
All 8 furlong (1 mile) runners
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
0/20 0% -£20.00
Win and Place record – 0/20 0% S/R
For whatever reason the Paul Cole 90+ runners have a miserable time of it in May; Zero winners and Zero placed efforts suggest they should be given a wide berth.
POSITIVES
Sir Michael Stoute
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
38/133 29% -£8.91
Win and Place record – 77/133 58% S/R
It’s clear from the above that the Stoute May runners are an over bet bunch but with a 29% S/R it pays to dig a little deeper.
All 90+ runners in only Group 3 events
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
11/17 65% +£19.28
Win and Place record – 13/17 76% S/R
If we concentrate on his 90+ runners in only Group 3 events (so basically runners just below the top levels) then we get a huge improvement in the strike-rate and more importantly the LSP tells us this is an angle we can profit from.
All 90+ runners in Class 1 races
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
20/51 39% +£17.22
Win and Place record – 28/51 55% S/R
If we want to widen the search a bit further in search of more bets then we need only open it up to all Class 1 races. There is a dip in the strike-rate but the LSP still runs at a consistent level.
Favourites in all races
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
25/50 50% +£6.34
Win and Place record – 35/50 70% S/R
It’s interesting to note there is marginal profit to be squeezed out of backing the Stoute 90+ day SP favourites. It’s also interesting to note that if the money is down on one of the yards 90+ day runners then 1 in every 2 land the money.
William Haggas
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
20/83 24% +£43.11
Win and Place record – 34/83 41% S/R
Some juicy figures and profits on show from the Haggas yard’s
90+ day qualifiers.
All 3yo Maiden runners
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
8/25 32% +£40.56
Win and Place record – 13/25 52% S/R
The stats tell us it’s the 3yo maiden runners we should pay particular attention to in May. Looks like Haggas is adept at improving them over the winter after they have had a (non- winning) taste of the racetrack as a 2yo.
Newmarket
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
1/19 5% -£15.45
Win and Place record – 4/19 21% S/R
Flat HQ isn’t the happiest of hunting grounds for the yards 90+ day runners in May, possibly due to the extremely competitive nature of most Newmarket contests.
Chris Wall
Overall May 90+ day record
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
12/53 23% +£67.61
Win and Place record – 14/53 26% S/R
A yard that are likely to slip under the radar a touch so there is a good chance of some loftily priced runners within the 90+ day crop.
All Yarmouth
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
3/4 75% +£13.49
The one runner that didn’t win started as an un-fancied 50/1
shot.
Limited runners to go on here but it is certainly an angle that at the very least we should be keeping an eye on.
All Class 6 runners
Wins/Runs Win S/R % LSP
4/7 57% +£49.30
Taking in only the class 6 races again gives solid strike-rate and
LSP figures.