hope they run better than a maiden aunt

[Smokeyone]

Just testing a pattern I may have found - putting it hear so if it goes pear shape you'll all know - SP prices

2.40 Salis Airborne Again Won evens
4.20 Salis Tasheyaat Won 6/4
4.10 York Noorzabeel Won 7/2
6.15 New Misty Conquest Won 11/10
7.25 New Lyric Street Won 8/13

Putting an imaginary £30 on each (3% of £1000 bank)

Profit on day £30+£45+£105+£33+£18.46 = £231.46

[Smokeyone]

Bank now £1231.46 - 3% = £36.94 on each selection

13.50 Newmark Royal Blush Won 4/6
14.50 Newmark Skip Along Won 1/3
17.50 Ham Devlin Lost
19.25 Ham Little Rocky Won 8/15

So profit on the day £24.62+£12.31-£36.94+£19.70 = £19.69

Bank now stands at £1251.15

[bigcumba]

Impressive start! :thumbs

[Win2Win]

:yikes::yikes::yikes:

[bryn]

Fantastic start, carry on with the good work:thumbs

[MattR]

and two more in the bag already, great stuff :thumbs

[Smokeyone]

Cheers
Bit concerned about the next race as the fav/prices have changed so much during the day. Wish I had some lolly on yesterdays bunch though...

[Smokeyone]

Just one selection today Saturday -
£1251.15 bank @ 3% = £37.53 on

19.05 Don Amadeus Denton Won 3/10

Profit on the day £11.25
Bank total £1262.40

[Smokeyone]

Sunday

Ripon 14.10 Grand Gold Lost
Ripon 16.40 Trojan Nights Won 2/7

£37.87 on each

Down a little today - lost £27.05

Bank now £1235.35

[Smokeyone]

£37.07 on each

Bath 2.30 Pearl Storm Lost
Bath 3.30 Lord Ali Mcjones Lost
Wol 2.10 Fayr Fall Won 5/6
Leic 6.40 Sea Odyssey Lost

Not a good day £80.32 down
New bank balance £1155.03

[Smokeyone]

£34.65 - hope to do better today - famous last words ....

14.50 Brig Chaussini Lost
18.00 Kemp Banksy Lost
19.00 Kemp Baltic Light Won 5/4

£43.31 up on Baltic Light less the two losses = £25.88 down
Bank now stands at £1129.15

[Smokeyone]

Wednesday

Good 14.00 Glee Won 4/9
Ling 15.00 Circus Act Lost
Kemp 14.10 Rooknrasbryripple Lost

£33.87 on each

So £52.69 down on the day
Revised bank £1076.46

[Smokeyone]

£32.29 on each selection

Hay 16.35 Midsummer Sun Won 2/5
17.05 Solar Sky Won 2/13
Sou 14.40 Basantee Won 11/8
San 17.50 Nayarra Lost
Sal 18.00 Right Result Lost
19.05 Ma Quillet should be the most fancied but if not change to the FAV
The Favourite won, Dead Cool 3/1

£12.91+£4.96+£44.30-£32.29-£32.29+£96.87 = £94.46 up on the day
New Bank Total £1170.92

[Smokeyone]

Friday - £35.12 on each

Hay 15.00 Repesent
Bath 14.10 Toffee Tart
Yarm 14.20 Intiqaal
Muss 19.00 Should be Blue Shoes but in any event back the FAV
Catt 18.50 On The Dark Side

I'm sure I updated these earlier on this morning - must be slipping ...
Four losses equals £140.48 but On the Dark Side won at 15/8 so £65.85
from the losses leaves £74.63 down...new balance £1096.29
£32.88 on the next selection.................

[Smokeyone]

Saturday

£32.88

York 16.15 Apostle Lost
Chest 14.25 Question Time Lost
Chest 15.25 Tortoni Lost
New 19.40 Foxtrot Hotel Won 4/9
Ling 17.50 Cristal Gem Lost

Four lost @ £131.52 less a winner leaves £116.91 down
New Balance £979.38 @ 3% £29.38

[Smokeyone]

Sunday
No flat racing today

[Smokeyone]

Monday

Leic 14.45 St Barths Won 4/11
Leic 17.15 No Heretic Won 4/9

£29.38

Ah winners - £10.68+£13.05 = £23.73 up
New balance £1003.11 @ 3% = £30.09

[Smokeyone]

Tuesday
I am out of circulation for most of the day so cannot really double check later this morning so suggest backing FAV in each race - £30.09

Rip 14.10 & 17.40
Chep 14.20
Ling 14.30

First race won at 13/8 the next two lost and the last was a nr
Two times £30.09 = £60.18 less £48.89 = £11.29 down
New balance £991.82 @ 3% = £29.75

[Smokeyone]

£29.75 on each

Ayr 14.10 Letsgoroundagain Lost
Bev 18.30 Elmaam Won 1/4

I am keeping my fingers crossed

£29.75 loss less £7.43 leaves £22.32 down
New balance £969.59 @ 3% £29.08

[Smokeyone]

£29.08 on all the fav's

Ayr 14.20 Lost
Brig 14.10 Won 1/10 15.40 Lost
New 18.20 Lost 19.30 Won 4/7
Folk 14.30 Won 1/6 16.30 Lost

Just three winners at odds on
Four times £29.08=£116.32 less £2.90/£16.61/£4.84=£91.97 down
New balance £877.62@3%=£26.32

[Smokeyone]

£26.32 on each favourite

Brig 14.30 Lost
Hay 18.35 Won 7/4
Newc 14.10 Won 5/2
Newc 14.45 Won 4/11
Pont 21.05 Won evens

£46.06+£65.80+£9.57+£26.32=£147.75 less £26.32 leaves £121.43 profit
New balance £999.05@3%=£29.97

[Smokeyone]

£29.97 on the fav

Newma 17.10 Won 7/4
Catt 14.30 Lost

£52.44 less £29.97 = £22.47 profit
New Balance £1021.52@3% - £30.64

[Smokeyone]

£30.64 on each

Nott
13.50 Fav should be Dark Ages if not back the Fav Won 9/4
16.20 Paoletta Lost
16.50 Focal Lost

£7.66 profit on the day
New bank £1029.15@3%=£30.87

[Smokeyone]

Monday
£30.87 on each selection

Carlis 14.20 How sweet it is Lost
Leic 14.05 Burwaaz Won 1/4
Red 14.25 Kohala Won 11/8
Red 16.45 Bertiewhittle nr

£7.71+£42.44 less £30.87 = £19.28
New balance £1048.43@3%=£31.45

[Smokeyone]

£31.45 on each

Red 14.30 Inetrobil Won 5/6
Red 16.30 Lady Chloe Won 5/6
Lei 16.15 Right to dream Lost

£20.95 up on the day
New Balance £1069.38@3%=£32.08

[Godspot]

£30.64 on each

Nott
13.50 Fav should be Dark Ages if not back the Fav Won 9/4
16.20 Paoletta Lost
16.50 Focal Lost

£7.66 profit on the day
New bank £1029.15@3%=£30.87

How do you count that? Dark Ages wasn't the fav?

[Smokeyone]

This is the second time that I have thought I had posted but the response seems to have vanished...

Dark Ages was the fav early in the morning but guessed it might change that's why
I said if it changes back the fav...

[Smokeyone]

Wednesday

Nott 15.10 Bear Behind Won 8/11
Kemp 18.20 Excavator Lost
Kemp 20.20 Back the fav Lost

£32.08 on each

Two lost £64.16 less a winner £23.33 = £40.83 loss
Balance £1028.55@3%=£30.85

[Smokeyone]

Ham 14.10 Winter Hill Lost
South 15.00 Back the fav Won 13/8
Ling 15.20 Light Blow Lost
Ling 15.50 Red Alpha Lost
Sand 18.00 Marcus Augustus Lost

£30.85 on each

Four at £30.85 =£123.40 less £50.13=£73.27 down on the day
New balance £955.28@3%=£28.65

[Win2Win]

Doing ok :thumbs

[Godspot]

This is the second time that I have thought I had posted but the response seems to have vanished...

Dark Ages was the fav early in the morning but guessed it might change that's why
I said if it changes back the fav...

So how do you count it as a winner when it wasn't fav when u say back the fav?

[Smokeyone]

Famous last words after a bad day ...........

[Smokeyone]

£28.65 on each

Catt 13.50 Superplex Lost
Catt 16.15 King of the celts Won 1/9
Don 18.05 Tortoni Lost
Muss 14.00 Back the fav Lost
Good 19.20 Back the fav Lost
Good 20.25 Rougette Won 8/11

Four lost @ £28.65 = £114.60
Two won £3.18 + £20.83 = £24.11
Loss on day = £90.49
New balance £864.79@3%=£25.94

[Godspot]

So how do you count it as a winner when it wasn't fav when u say back the fav?

Does this make sense to anyone else?

[Smokeyone]

£25.94 on each

Donc 17.05 Eland Alley Won 1/3
Ling 18.15 Nayarra Lost 2/1


Heafkry & Laashak should both be fav's to win - however if the pricing changes
during the day etc and a new fav or shortest price horse emerges back the shortest price instead.
Newc 18.30 Heafkry ….Bellechance revised fav won at 11/4
Newc 20.30 Laashak ….Miss Aix revised fav won at 7/4

£8.64 + £71.33+£45.39 less £25.94 = £99.42 profit

[Smokeyone]

New balance £964.21

Sunday

No suggestions today

[Smokeyone]

Monday
£28.92 on each selection
Pont 18.30 Majestic Zafeen Lost
Folk 17.00 Zakon Lost

£57.84 down
Balance £906.37@3%=£27.19

[Smokeyone]

£27.19 on each fav
Redcar
14.00 Whisky Brave fav lost
16.10 Pint Size fav won 6/4
16.45 Set me free fav won 1/8

£40.78+£3.39-£27.19=£16.98 up
Balance £923.35@3%=£27.70

[barrelmaniac]

Does this make sense to anyone else?


yes makes perfect sense to me, Dark ages was not the favorite when the race went off and so shouldn't be included in the results?????????????????

[Smokeyone]

£27.70 on each

Yar 14.10 Lady Nickandy won 2/7
Yar 16.40 Fav Hotfoot lost
Ham 14.50 Fav Dare lost
Kem 18.45 Main Focus won 10/11

£22.31 down on the day
Balance £901.04@3%=£27.03

[Smokeyone]

Thursday
£27.03

Newb 1.30 Floral Beauty lost 4/11
Newb 2.00 Moustache 5/4 lost
Newb 3.40 Stella Point evens lost

Hayd 6.50 Fav Barolo Top won evens

Nott 1.50 Fav Sans Loi won 5/2

Yarm 2.10 Fav Red Riverman lost 6/4

Lost £13.52 on the day
Balance £887.52@3%=£26.62

[Smokeyone]

Friday
£26.62 on each favourite

Sand 14.20 Verbeeck won 15/8
Sand 15.25 John Lightbody won 3/1
Good 18.45 Cala Santanyi lost 11/10

£103.15 profit
Balance £990.67@3%=£29.72

[Smokeyone]

Saturday
£29.72 on each favourite

York 16.25 Swiss Spirit won 4/6 fav
Chester 14.45 Shere Khan lost 3/1 fav
Bath 14.50 Best in show lost 5/2 fav
Leicester 19.00 Pearl Diva lost 5/2 fav
Lingfield 18.10 Van Der art lost 5/2 fav

£99.07 down
Balance £891.60@3%=£26.74

[Smokeyone]

Sunday

£26.74 on the fav

Sal 16.15 Avon Pear lost 2/1

£26.74 down
Balance £864.86@3%=£25.94

[Smokeyone]

Monday
£25.94 on the fav

War 18.40 stepper point 9/4 lost

Bal £838.92@3%=£25.16

[Smokeyone]

Although there seems to be a 47% strike rate there has been no luck in actually making a profit probably because because of the odds on prices. Sticking with the same horses I am thinking of changing the stakes after playing around with the Staking Machine.
Has anyone any views on this after all this is just for fun ....

[Smokeyone]

Not around tomorrow so here goes for Tuesday ...

Brighton 18.30

Back the favourite £25.10 to win Mr Lucky Liz won 9/4jf

In any race the favourite is the horse quoted in the official Starting Price return at the shortest odds. If two horses should be quoted at the same odds and if these odds should be shorter than those quoted against any other horse then these two horses
are joint favourites. The stake will be divided and invested equally.

£25.10/2=£12.55
£12.55@9/4=£28.23 less £12.55=£15.68 profit
New Balance £854.60

[Smokeyone]

Wednesday
Change of staking plan from today and taking early prices where possible

Ham 14.20 Lexi's Prince 7/4 £25.62 Lost
Ham 15.35 Lion Court 5/4 £4.27 Lost
Rip 19.20 Last Bid 9/4 £17.33 Won..£38.99 profit
Kemp 20.10 Elusive Kate 5/6 £4.27 Won at 5/4 £5.33 profit

I should have added when mentioning taking early prices that the
prices are taken with the usual bookie offer of best price etc etc

£14.43 up on the day
New balance £869.03

[Smokeyone]

Thursday
Rip 14.10 Kenny Powers 13/8 £4.27 Lost
Bev 18.40 Loyal Master 2/1 £9.61 Won at 5/2 £24.02 up
Leic 18.50 Leqqaa 9/4 £17.33 Won at 3/1 £51.99 up
Leic 20.50 Midnight Oil 5/4 £4.27 Won at 11/8 £5.87

£77.81 up on the day
New balance £946.84

Adjustment to balance owing to a goofy
Revised balance £847.26

[MattR]

Although there seems to be a 47% strike rate there has been no luck in actually making a profit probably because because of the odds on prices. Sticking with the same horses I am thinking of changing the stakes after playing around with the Staking Machine.
Has anyone any views on this after all this is just for fun ....


How would it be doing if you removed all odds on bets? Just a thought.

[Godspot]

Although there seems to be a 47% strike rate there has been no luck in actually making a profit probably because because of the odds on prices. Sticking with the same horses I am thinking of changing the stakes after playing around with the Staking Machine.
Has anyone any views on this after all this is just for fun ....

Does that include the non-fav winner where u said to back the fav?

I was only going to say you should have stuck with him as he was well clear on my figures but u seen to have collected on him even though u said back the fav which he wasn't -

I been meaning to say for some time that the only way is down while your selections are so short priced - look at Leopardstown tonight, the first 6 favs (biggest 9/4) all went down....

[Smokeyone]

Godspot
I am confused, which horse are you referring to please ..... although you could well be correct about the only way is down with so many short prices ....

MattR
If you are thinking of tsm perhaps you could explain to me how to enter the filter details please ....

[Smokeyone]

Friday
Muss 13.50 Badeo 13/8 £4.27 Lost
Muss 14.55 Favourite £23.50 won at 6/4 £35.25
Red 17.45 Favourite £28.55 Lost
New 20.40 New Hampshire 7/2 £39.37 Won £137.79
Good 19.25 Rainbow Springs 2/5 £4.27 Won £1.70
Ayr 18.40 Sole Danser 10/11 £4.27 Lost

Profit £137.65
Balance £984.91

[Godspot]

Godspot
I am confused, which horse are you referring to please ..... although you could well be correct about the only way is down with so many short prices ....



The horse in question was called Dark Ages, see above but to bring this little method/system out of the Dark Ages, see this:
http://skybluekangaroo.com/horseracingsystems/value-horse-analysis/

No offence like...

[Smokeyone]

I am sure I posted already...need more coffee

I stand corrected - whoops..
I really thought the Favourite won, hence the confusion ....

[Smokeyone]

Saturday
New 13.35 Kirthill £4.27 11/8 won at 15/8 £8
New 16.50 Favourite £32.76 Lost
Ayr 16.05 Apostle £4.27 11/8 Withdrawn
Red 14.15 Red Duke £4.27 evens won £4.27
Red 17.05 Mother Jones £4.27 11/8 Won £5.87
Hay 18.15 Favourite £23.50 Lost
Ling 18.00 Favourite £23.50 Lost
Ling 19.00 Firebeam £4.27 11/10 Won £4.69

£32.76 & £23.50 & £23.50 lost
£8 & £4.27 & £5.87 & £4.69 won
£56.93 down
Balance £927.98

[Smokeyone]

Sunday
Pont 14.10 Fav £38.41 won 3/1 £115.23
Pont 14.40 Fav £27.50 won 11/10 £30.25

Balance £1073.46

[Smokeyone]

Monday
£5 on each
Kemp 14.45 Bansky evens Lost
Wol 15.00 Trumpington Street 5/6 Lost
Chep 18.30 Galivant 2/7 Won £1.42
Chep 20.30 Burj Hatta 4/5 Lost

Down £13.58
New balance £1059.88
Revised balance owing to a Rule 4 previous winner
£1036.83

[Smokeyone]

Tuesday
Back the favourite
Bev 14.15 £5 Lost
Bev 16.15 £5 Won at 6/4 £7.50
Bri 14.30 £5 Won at 13/8 £8.12
Newb 19.15 £28 Lost

Down £18.62
Balance £1018.21

[Smokeyone]

Wednesday
£5 on each
Sal 14.10 Pink Sapphire 4/7 Won £2.85
Sal 14.45 Minal 10/11 Lost
Sal 15.15 Mundana 2/5 Won £2
Bath 18.40 Tappanappa 13/8 Withdrawn

Just 15p down
New balance £1018.06

[Smokeyone]

Thursday
£5 on each
War 14.20 Kawssaj 2/5 Lost
War 16.40 Above Standard 11/10 Won £5.50
Lei 19.10 West Leake Hare 11/10 Won £5.50
Ham 20.00 Striking the wind 1/2 Lost

up a £1

[Smokeyone]

Balance £1019.06

Friday

Don 14.20 Colorful Notion 3/1 £38 won at 5/1 £190
Don 14.50 West Side evens £5 Lost
Folk 14.30 Mizbah 4/7 £5 won £2.85
Newcas 18.20 Misrepresent 4/5 £5 Won £4
Chest 18.40 Kinetica 8/11 £5 Won £3.63

Up £195.48 on the day
Balance £1214.54

[Smokeyone]

Newcas 16.15 Kool Henry £5 5/4 Won at 2/1 £10
Chest 15.10 Quails Hollow £20 9/4 Lost
Wind 14.25 Right to Dream £5 11/10 Won £5.50
Ling 17.50 Arabian Falcon £11 2/1 Lost
Ling 19.55 Deck Walk £5 8/11 Lost

Saturday suggestions ...........................

Lost £20.50 today
Balance £1194.04

[Smokeyone]

Sunday
Last selection for fun. As another forum member mentioned there does not seem to be any value in the betting and I can see the profit we have made drifting back into a loss again. It's probably to do with the number of odds on winners rather than odds to winners.
No more selections after today.....

Sal 14.00 Esentepe Lost
Sal 14.35 Shamrocked Won
Win 17.05 Electra Star Won