Godspot
20th September 2011, 02:56
While I just seen:
Moore set to rejoin Workforce in task of completing Arc double
... is winning his race to be able to ride Workforce in the colt's defence of his Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe trophy in Paris on Sunday week. ...
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/moore-set-to-rejoin-workforce-in-task-of-completing-arc-double-2357533.html
I see Nick Mordin has updated with his take on the recent trials at Longchamp:
THE JAPANESE HAVE ANOTHER SERIOUS CHANCE IN ARC
Below you can see the sectional times for the three Arc Trials run last Sunday together with those for last year's Arc. I’ve adjusted those for Galikova's Prix Vermeille and the Arc to take account of the slower surface they were run on:
Sarafina Reliable Man Galikova 2010 Arc
1000 1m34.07 1m 34.47 1m 32.54 1m 28.00
600 1m 58.76 1m 58.11 1m 57.14 1m 53.08
400 2m 10.35 2m 09.54 2m 09.02 2m 05.26
200 2m 21,17 2m 20.63 2m 20.59 Not available
Finish 2m 32.28 2m 32.43 2m 32.68 2m 31.54
As you can see all three Arc trials featured a much slower early pace to the 1000 metre (5f) from home mark than in last year's Arc.
SARAFINA (40/120) clocked a slightly faster time than the winners of the other two Arc trials when taking the Prix Foy. And she produced much the fastest finish, wriggling through a very narrow gap to score in a final furlong officially run in just 11.11 seconds.
Sarafina can produce an astonishing burst of finishing speed in a slow run race when the field is small enough to allow her an uninterrupted passage. In fact I could hardly believe how fast she finished when taking a very slow run five runner Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her previous start. She actually ran the last quarter mile in just 21 seconds flat in that contest. That's the fastest final quarter mile I've ever heard of.
The big problem with Sarafina's ultra-late running style is that in big fields she tends to encounter traffic problems. She broke her maiden in a big field but since then she's lost both times and encountered traffic when she's contested races with more than nine runners. In single figure fields she's won six out of seven.
In last year's Arc Sarafina was forced to check early and then nearly got brought down rounding the home turn. She clearly had major problems coping with the big field. I can't see why it should be any different this time around seeing that she had trouble finding a run against just three rivals in the Prix Foy. How on earth the bookies can justify making her ante-post favourite for the Arc is beyond me.
Runner up HIRUNO D'AMOUR (40/120) looks a better candidate for the Arc than the winner. He took the brave route down the inside when winning one of Japan's top races, the Tenno Sho, against seventeen rivals off a searching early pace on his previous start back in May.
This strong, good looking Japanese colt put up a great performance to run Sarafina to a photo seeing that he was clearly unfit and the winner bumped him from behind on the home turn, costing him ground.
Hiruno d'Amour has lost all four times he's come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more as he did here. And, like a lot of horses that need the run, he appeared sluggish before the race. Trainer Mitsugu Kon commented on this, saying "He was so quiet in the parade ring and the preliminaries that I wished he'd show a little more spark."
Jockey Shinji Fujita seemed to be under instructions not to use his whip as he only pushed Hiruno d'Amour out with hands and heels in the closing stages. Nonetheless this was enough for him to surge forward up the straight, gain two lengths to take a narrow lead and then hang on for second by what would be called a head in Britain or Ireland.
Kon told the JRA after the race that he viewed Sarafina's push up the rail as a sign she had no extra to spare. "The winner is the likely favourite for the Arc, but to have had to go up the inside like she did, I'd say she was having a rough time of it. I think we can expect to turn the tables next time out. Hiruno d'Amour still has room for improvement and is not in tiptop shape yet. I'm going to get him there now as we aim for the big race."
Hiruno d'Amour gives Japan another serious chance of winning the Arc. But this year he's not their only chance. Last year's runner up NAKAYAMA FESTA (38/114) has another shot at the race after having a warm up off a lengthy break in the Prix Foy.
Nakayama Festa's jockey let him bowl along in the lead at a strong pace for the first furlong or so to open up a five length break. He then slowed it up from the front before starting the sprint for home entering the straight. The horse was still level with a furlong to run but looked to blow up through lack of fitness, only being ridden hands and heels from there to get beat three and a quarter lengths.
Nakayama Festa has a record of going well fresh but had been off for ages before this run, as his trainer noted. He said "It was his first time running since the Japan Cup last year and you could not say he was in great shape. But, now that we've had a good run, I think he will improve for the next race. He took the lead and he was running balanced throughout. Only at the end did he run out of steam, but I think he'll have more for next time."
This run definitely improved Nakayama Festa's chances of winning the Arc. I'm a little concerned that he will peak one run after the Arc and that his connections have the Japan Cup at the back of their minds rather than the Arc. But he still has to rank as one of the major players.
Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (38/114) ranged alongside Nakayama Festa when the sprint began but was soon outpaced by the first two. It's looking more and more like he wants to go back up to the kind of marathon trip that saw him win so impressively at Chester early this season. The Prix Royal Oak would be his obvious target.
RELIABLE MAN LOOKS A BIT DODGY FOR THE ARC
RELIABLE MAN (39/117) looked impressive when winning the Prix Niel by a couple of lengths from the Grand Prix de Paris winner Meandre. But I’m still not convinced he's truly top class. He earned the same rather ordinary speed rating from me the he had on his previous two starts despite having a better chance of clocking a good final time than the winners of the other two Arc trials.
They picked up much more strongly off the slow early pace in the Prix Niel from the five furlong marker than they did in the Foy or Vermeille, covering the half mile from there to the furlong pole almost a second faster than in the Foy and nearly two seconds quicker than the Vermeille. In addition Reliable Man was pushed out by his rider all the way through the final furlong. If he was really top class I'd have expected him to clock a significantly faster final time.
It's hard to knock Reliable Man on form as he's only lost once in four starts and looked impressive here. But until he runs faster I'm going to oppose him in Group 1 company.
GALIKOVA STILL LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY ARC WINNER
I've been whittering on about GALIKOVA (38/114) as an Arc prospect ever since she won the Prix Cleopatre in sensational time back in May - where she clocked a faster time than the subsequent Derby winner Pour Moi managed on the same card in a truly run race. Following her win in the Prix Vermeille I still see her as the one they all have to beat.
Galikova is clearly best off a strong early pace. But she showed in the Vermeille as she had on her previous start that she can still dominate inferior rivals even when there's a sprint finish. She picked up really well to surge nearly three lengths clear without being hard pressed.
Galikova was in season when second in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and has won all her other four starts this season. I've compared her to Zarkava before. More people will be doing that if she pulls off the Vermeille-Arc double as that one did.
http://www.nickmordin.com/france.htm
[My figures for the 3 -
128 - 138 - 114 respectively. Mordin doesn't take into account weight for age which puts Reliable Man ahead even while a slightly slower time.]
He also put some interesting stats in last week’s Weekender too:
11 of last 12 winners had won a Group One of the present season by at least two lengths – Only Galikova, Nathaniel, Danedream & So You Think have done that.
14 of the last 17 Arcs have been won by 3yo’s – two of the three older horses had already won two Group One’s that season.
12 of the last 13 3yo’s to win had won at least 2/3rd’s of all previous starts, only Galikova & Reliable Man have done that & concludes that Galikova is the one to be on.
Regards So You Think’s chances: Horses bred in New Zealand have raced in 62 pattern class races outside NZ or Australia at 12f+ & have won only once. He’s a big, heavy horse & apparently, the heavier horses are, the shorter the average distance they’re effective at. He’s so big he says, he’s hard to steer & gives that as a reason as to why he’s lost both times he’s encountered big fields, like the one he’ll face in the Arc.
A narrow success but a terrific performance from ante-post Arc favourite SARAFINA who gained a narrow verdict over Japanese challenger Hiruno D'Amour. Alain de Royer-Dupre had warned that his star filly would be short of her best as she was prepared for next month's showpiece but she showed terrific heart to put her head in front. Held-up in rear off an initially strong pace, she was still in last spot with a furlong to run and Christophe Lemaire opted to try and challenge between horses rather than switch to the outside. She showed her trademark turn of foot and had to be brave to force her way past Hiruno d'Amour where there was barely a gap for her to go through but did so and appeared to win a shade cosily. Her style of running will ensure that she will always be a hostage of fortune and she enjoyed little luck in the Arc 12 months ago but there's no doubting that she has the ability to run a huge race if the cards fall right. Recent history doesn't offer much encouragement with the last nine winners of this race going on to be beaten in the Arc although three defeated horses have gone on to victory. Hiruno D'Amour attracted support prior to the race and the Japanese challenger ran a big race on his first start since winning a Grade One over two miles in May. That success in the prestigious Tenno Sho (spring) was the biggest of his career to date and his fourth victory in 14 starts with his first graded win coming on his previous outing. He's clearly progressive and this outing should have brought him on for next month's challenge.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,459102,00.html
RELIABLE MAN completed a double for Alain de Royer-Dupre with a convincing success from favourite Meandre in the premier trial for the Arc with 12 horses having gone on to complete the double. Gerald Mosse had blamed himself for the Prix du Jockey Club winner's defeat at the hands of Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris, believing that he had his colt too far back from the pace. He adopted a more prominent position on this occasion and the response was instantaneous as he quickened clear to record an impressive success to land his fourth race from just five starts. This was his first victory over a mile and a half, he got the trip well and it should be all systems go for the Arc for which his price was, predictably, slashed as he attempts to be the first horse to complete the Niel/Arc double since Rail Link in 2006; connections expect him to come on for this race.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,459103,00.html
The winning time was around two seconds slower than the two preceding trials despite the pace appearing to be good and even but conditions had worsened appreciably following heavy rain. GALIKOVA, a Galileo half-sister to Goldikova, was having her first run over a mile and a half and emphatically proved her stamina for the trip with a commanding victory. She raced in fourth, tracking Wonder Of Wonders, and off the rail ensuring that she was going to have plenty of room in which to make her challenge. She only needed a couple of taps from Olivier Peslier to quicken up impressively and Peslier only had to push her out to score. The jockey felt that she had improved since winning at Deauville and she is firmly on course for the Arc; Zarkava was the last - and fifth in total - to complete the Vermeille/Arc double and bookmakers were suitably impressed to slash her odds in what is shaping up to be an open year.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,459106,00.html
Moore set to rejoin Workforce in task of completing Arc double
... is winning his race to be able to ride Workforce in the colt's defence of his Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe trophy in Paris on Sunday week. ...
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/moore-set-to-rejoin-workforce-in-task-of-completing-arc-double-2357533.html
I see Nick Mordin has updated with his take on the recent trials at Longchamp:
THE JAPANESE HAVE ANOTHER SERIOUS CHANCE IN ARC
Below you can see the sectional times for the three Arc Trials run last Sunday together with those for last year's Arc. I’ve adjusted those for Galikova's Prix Vermeille and the Arc to take account of the slower surface they were run on:
Sarafina Reliable Man Galikova 2010 Arc
1000 1m34.07 1m 34.47 1m 32.54 1m 28.00
600 1m 58.76 1m 58.11 1m 57.14 1m 53.08
400 2m 10.35 2m 09.54 2m 09.02 2m 05.26
200 2m 21,17 2m 20.63 2m 20.59 Not available
Finish 2m 32.28 2m 32.43 2m 32.68 2m 31.54
As you can see all three Arc trials featured a much slower early pace to the 1000 metre (5f) from home mark than in last year's Arc.
SARAFINA (40/120) clocked a slightly faster time than the winners of the other two Arc trials when taking the Prix Foy. And she produced much the fastest finish, wriggling through a very narrow gap to score in a final furlong officially run in just 11.11 seconds.
Sarafina can produce an astonishing burst of finishing speed in a slow run race when the field is small enough to allow her an uninterrupted passage. In fact I could hardly believe how fast she finished when taking a very slow run five runner Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her previous start. She actually ran the last quarter mile in just 21 seconds flat in that contest. That's the fastest final quarter mile I've ever heard of.
The big problem with Sarafina's ultra-late running style is that in big fields she tends to encounter traffic problems. She broke her maiden in a big field but since then she's lost both times and encountered traffic when she's contested races with more than nine runners. In single figure fields she's won six out of seven.
In last year's Arc Sarafina was forced to check early and then nearly got brought down rounding the home turn. She clearly had major problems coping with the big field. I can't see why it should be any different this time around seeing that she had trouble finding a run against just three rivals in the Prix Foy. How on earth the bookies can justify making her ante-post favourite for the Arc is beyond me.
Runner up HIRUNO D'AMOUR (40/120) looks a better candidate for the Arc than the winner. He took the brave route down the inside when winning one of Japan's top races, the Tenno Sho, against seventeen rivals off a searching early pace on his previous start back in May.
This strong, good looking Japanese colt put up a great performance to run Sarafina to a photo seeing that he was clearly unfit and the winner bumped him from behind on the home turn, costing him ground.
Hiruno d'Amour has lost all four times he's come into a race off a break of seven weeks or more as he did here. And, like a lot of horses that need the run, he appeared sluggish before the race. Trainer Mitsugu Kon commented on this, saying "He was so quiet in the parade ring and the preliminaries that I wished he'd show a little more spark."
Jockey Shinji Fujita seemed to be under instructions not to use his whip as he only pushed Hiruno d'Amour out with hands and heels in the closing stages. Nonetheless this was enough for him to surge forward up the straight, gain two lengths to take a narrow lead and then hang on for second by what would be called a head in Britain or Ireland.
Kon told the JRA after the race that he viewed Sarafina's push up the rail as a sign she had no extra to spare. "The winner is the likely favourite for the Arc, but to have had to go up the inside like she did, I'd say she was having a rough time of it. I think we can expect to turn the tables next time out. Hiruno d'Amour still has room for improvement and is not in tiptop shape yet. I'm going to get him there now as we aim for the big race."
Hiruno d'Amour gives Japan another serious chance of winning the Arc. But this year he's not their only chance. Last year's runner up NAKAYAMA FESTA (38/114) has another shot at the race after having a warm up off a lengthy break in the Prix Foy.
Nakayama Festa's jockey let him bowl along in the lead at a strong pace for the first furlong or so to open up a five length break. He then slowed it up from the front before starting the sprint for home entering the straight. The horse was still level with a furlong to run but looked to blow up through lack of fitness, only being ridden hands and heels from there to get beat three and a quarter lengths.
Nakayama Festa has a record of going well fresh but had been off for ages before this run, as his trainer noted. He said "It was his first time running since the Japan Cup last year and you could not say he was in great shape. But, now that we've had a good run, I think he will improve for the next race. He took the lead and he was running balanced throughout. Only at the end did he run out of steam, but I think he'll have more for next time."
This run definitely improved Nakayama Festa's chances of winning the Arc. I'm a little concerned that he will peak one run after the Arc and that his connections have the Japan Cup at the back of their minds rather than the Arc. But he still has to rank as one of the major players.
Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (38/114) ranged alongside Nakayama Festa when the sprint began but was soon outpaced by the first two. It's looking more and more like he wants to go back up to the kind of marathon trip that saw him win so impressively at Chester early this season. The Prix Royal Oak would be his obvious target.
RELIABLE MAN LOOKS A BIT DODGY FOR THE ARC
RELIABLE MAN (39/117) looked impressive when winning the Prix Niel by a couple of lengths from the Grand Prix de Paris winner Meandre. But I’m still not convinced he's truly top class. He earned the same rather ordinary speed rating from me the he had on his previous two starts despite having a better chance of clocking a good final time than the winners of the other two Arc trials.
They picked up much more strongly off the slow early pace in the Prix Niel from the five furlong marker than they did in the Foy or Vermeille, covering the half mile from there to the furlong pole almost a second faster than in the Foy and nearly two seconds quicker than the Vermeille. In addition Reliable Man was pushed out by his rider all the way through the final furlong. If he was really top class I'd have expected him to clock a significantly faster final time.
It's hard to knock Reliable Man on form as he's only lost once in four starts and looked impressive here. But until he runs faster I'm going to oppose him in Group 1 company.
GALIKOVA STILL LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY ARC WINNER
I've been whittering on about GALIKOVA (38/114) as an Arc prospect ever since she won the Prix Cleopatre in sensational time back in May - where she clocked a faster time than the subsequent Derby winner Pour Moi managed on the same card in a truly run race. Following her win in the Prix Vermeille I still see her as the one they all have to beat.
Galikova is clearly best off a strong early pace. But she showed in the Vermeille as she had on her previous start that she can still dominate inferior rivals even when there's a sprint finish. She picked up really well to surge nearly three lengths clear without being hard pressed.
Galikova was in season when second in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and has won all her other four starts this season. I've compared her to Zarkava before. More people will be doing that if she pulls off the Vermeille-Arc double as that one did.
http://www.nickmordin.com/france.htm
[My figures for the 3 -
128 - 138 - 114 respectively. Mordin doesn't take into account weight for age which puts Reliable Man ahead even while a slightly slower time.]
He also put some interesting stats in last week’s Weekender too:
11 of last 12 winners had won a Group One of the present season by at least two lengths – Only Galikova, Nathaniel, Danedream & So You Think have done that.
14 of the last 17 Arcs have been won by 3yo’s – two of the three older horses had already won two Group One’s that season.
12 of the last 13 3yo’s to win had won at least 2/3rd’s of all previous starts, only Galikova & Reliable Man have done that & concludes that Galikova is the one to be on.
Regards So You Think’s chances: Horses bred in New Zealand have raced in 62 pattern class races outside NZ or Australia at 12f+ & have won only once. He’s a big, heavy horse & apparently, the heavier horses are, the shorter the average distance they’re effective at. He’s so big he says, he’s hard to steer & gives that as a reason as to why he’s lost both times he’s encountered big fields, like the one he’ll face in the Arc.
A narrow success but a terrific performance from ante-post Arc favourite SARAFINA who gained a narrow verdict over Japanese challenger Hiruno D'Amour. Alain de Royer-Dupre had warned that his star filly would be short of her best as she was prepared for next month's showpiece but she showed terrific heart to put her head in front. Held-up in rear off an initially strong pace, she was still in last spot with a furlong to run and Christophe Lemaire opted to try and challenge between horses rather than switch to the outside. She showed her trademark turn of foot and had to be brave to force her way past Hiruno d'Amour where there was barely a gap for her to go through but did so and appeared to win a shade cosily. Her style of running will ensure that she will always be a hostage of fortune and she enjoyed little luck in the Arc 12 months ago but there's no doubting that she has the ability to run a huge race if the cards fall right. Recent history doesn't offer much encouragement with the last nine winners of this race going on to be beaten in the Arc although three defeated horses have gone on to victory. Hiruno D'Amour attracted support prior to the race and the Japanese challenger ran a big race on his first start since winning a Grade One over two miles in May. That success in the prestigious Tenno Sho (spring) was the biggest of his career to date and his fourth victory in 14 starts with his first graded win coming on his previous outing. He's clearly progressive and this outing should have brought him on for next month's challenge.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,459102,00.html
RELIABLE MAN completed a double for Alain de Royer-Dupre with a convincing success from favourite Meandre in the premier trial for the Arc with 12 horses having gone on to complete the double. Gerald Mosse had blamed himself for the Prix du Jockey Club winner's defeat at the hands of Meandre in the Grand Prix de Paris, believing that he had his colt too far back from the pace. He adopted a more prominent position on this occasion and the response was instantaneous as he quickened clear to record an impressive success to land his fourth race from just five starts. This was his first victory over a mile and a half, he got the trip well and it should be all systems go for the Arc for which his price was, predictably, slashed as he attempts to be the first horse to complete the Niel/Arc double since Rail Link in 2006; connections expect him to come on for this race.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,459103,00.html
The winning time was around two seconds slower than the two preceding trials despite the pace appearing to be good and even but conditions had worsened appreciably following heavy rain. GALIKOVA, a Galileo half-sister to Goldikova, was having her first run over a mile and a half and emphatically proved her stamina for the trip with a commanding victory. She raced in fourth, tracking Wonder Of Wonders, and off the rail ensuring that she was going to have plenty of room in which to make her challenge. She only needed a couple of taps from Olivier Peslier to quicken up impressively and Peslier only had to push her out to score. The jockey felt that she had improved since winning at Deauville and she is firmly on course for the Arc; Zarkava was the last - and fifth in total - to complete the Vermeille/Arc double and bookmakers were suitably impressed to slash her odds in what is shaping up to be an open year.
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,459106,00.html