stakesoft
28th December 2011, 04:48
Hi all,
I’ve been using tools and software that let me green-up or equalise in markets, but I’ve started to wonder if there’s a bit of extra profit to be made and have gone a little bit further with it. Since I’m sure you lot have seen most stuff before I was hoping to get opinions on whether this has been done before and whether it is a sensible approach or not:
So, at the moment, if I green up in a market the standard approach is to make you win the same amount regardless of if it wins or loses, and the profit and loss column (lets say on a Betfair horse race) will read the same all the way down.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to make this green-up function was sensitive to the odds of the selection you are trading out of and hence the likelihood of the outcome? Using extreme examples, something at odds of 1.1 is highly likely to win, and something at 800 is almost certainly not going to win. So if you were trading out of the 1.1, you’d do an amount that meant your profit was weighted to that selection, and if anything else came in, you wouldn’t make anything, but you wouldn’t lose either.
On the flipside, with the 800 odds example you’d weight it so you made no profit if it won, but more if it lost (which it’s very likely to do given the odds).
I came up with a spreadsheet that calculates the weighting – it uses odds of 2.0 as being the position when you would make the same profit regardless of winning or losing, but weights it to backing or laying dependent on whether the odds are higher or lower than that.
So I used extreme examples before, but for a more realistic one something at odds of 1.7 would make you split your greening up on 65%/35% towards the selection winning, whereas odds of 8.0 say do 7%/93% with the weighting towards laying.
Does anyone else do this? As a concept it has proved pretty robust, with the majority of bets making a bit more than they would have done through standard greening up.
I’m happy to share the spreadsheet if anyone wants it to have a play – I couldn’t see how to post attachments but mail me direct or I can stick it up on a site somewhere if the mods would be happy for it to be linked to?
Any thoughts on how to improve this as a concept would be gratefully received.... :smile:
Cheers
Mert
I’ve been using tools and software that let me green-up or equalise in markets, but I’ve started to wonder if there’s a bit of extra profit to be made and have gone a little bit further with it. Since I’m sure you lot have seen most stuff before I was hoping to get opinions on whether this has been done before and whether it is a sensible approach or not:
So, at the moment, if I green up in a market the standard approach is to make you win the same amount regardless of if it wins or loses, and the profit and loss column (lets say on a Betfair horse race) will read the same all the way down.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to make this green-up function was sensitive to the odds of the selection you are trading out of and hence the likelihood of the outcome? Using extreme examples, something at odds of 1.1 is highly likely to win, and something at 800 is almost certainly not going to win. So if you were trading out of the 1.1, you’d do an amount that meant your profit was weighted to that selection, and if anything else came in, you wouldn’t make anything, but you wouldn’t lose either.
On the flipside, with the 800 odds example you’d weight it so you made no profit if it won, but more if it lost (which it’s very likely to do given the odds).
I came up with a spreadsheet that calculates the weighting – it uses odds of 2.0 as being the position when you would make the same profit regardless of winning or losing, but weights it to backing or laying dependent on whether the odds are higher or lower than that.
So I used extreme examples before, but for a more realistic one something at odds of 1.7 would make you split your greening up on 65%/35% towards the selection winning, whereas odds of 8.0 say do 7%/93% with the weighting towards laying.
Does anyone else do this? As a concept it has proved pretty robust, with the majority of bets making a bit more than they would have done through standard greening up.
I’m happy to share the spreadsheet if anyone wants it to have a play – I couldn’t see how to post attachments but mail me direct or I can stick it up on a site somewhere if the mods would be happy for it to be linked to?
Any thoughts on how to improve this as a concept would be gratefully received.... :smile:
Cheers
Mert