Turbo lays question

[ProPocer]

Hi Keith, I'm having a punt at these for a bit and was just wondering, there's a fair few races where say 3 or 4 horses out of the top 5 or 6 in the betting are to be laid, does this mean to say that the remaining 1 or 2 not to be laid at the top of the betting make for a decent winning system? When I see there's one horse left not to be laid I imagine you lumping on big but then think no there's probably alot more to it than that lol.

[ProPocer]

Picked the wrong day to quit sniffin glue :rolleyes:

[ProPocer]

mmm 5 consecutive winners, 25% of a 1% bankroll vanished. My timing has always been impeccable throughout life :headbange

[ProPocer]

If I want to run a diary of these, say comparing my results to your's, where in the forum can I so this? No category seems apt. Thanks

[Win2Win]

This category is fine :thumbs

Laying say 4 in a 5 runner race comes up quite often, but it does mean if the outsider wins you scoop a big prize, and even if one of the hores you lay wins if it is a short price you may still profit as happened with a horse today.

The Turbo Lays do have big swings, well all forms of laying do, especially when you are just starting off, but it teaches you that while the stakes are small.

[ProPocer]

I've looked through all the systems on a trial membership, finding them a bit confusing. Which are the most profitable ones? Which is most profitable laying wise, are the W2W lays as good as the turbos etc?

[Win2Win]

The Max Lays and W2W Lays have fewer qualifiers so turnover, therefore profits are slower than the Turbo Lays, but they are all profitable, and these two have been proven for years on the site. The Turbo Lays have only been up since last May :smile:

[ProPocer]

Am I right in saying that the W2W lays are up 630pts then, over what time scale is that?

And also over what time scale have the System Bankers taken to reach £13k at £50 levels?

[ProPocer]

Another thing, regarding the cut-off prices for the turbo lays. I'm presuming that if these are system generated using whichever software it is you use, that statistically list 1 showed no profit on selections laid over 11/1 SP, list 2 12/1 SP and list 3 10/1 SP. In view of that, do you personally put most of the lays on at the last minute, waiting to see for example if an 11.0 shot from List 3 is going to drift out past 11.5 or are you just going to get it on at that price a few minutes before even it it turns out to have drifted to 12's by race off time? This is where it all gets a bit tough. How much danger is there of crippling the system by not being accurate with these cut-offs?

[Win2Win]

System Banker: Started: Oct 07
W2W Lays: 2009

It's not really a case of the Turbo Lays not showing a profit over the cut-offs, they do, however profits quickly drop to negative figures before you get to 20.0 due to the way the overbet rapidly increases. So the cut-offs are decided to give enough flexibility for those placing bets at different times.

For instance with no cut-offs I may put a bet on 1 min before the off and get 12.0, while someone places it at lunchtime and gets 18.0, as these prices can 'bounce' a lot. If it wins the lunchtime guy takes a big hit. By having cut-offs it keeps the overbet under control.

You won't crippls the system regardless when you put the bets on, as long as it is not the night before :yikes:. It is preferred to get on about 2 mins before the off, but that is my preference. The horses at the cut-off are less than 10% of the selections. Someone may hit a 12.0 that I miss, however they then may get 12 profitable Lays around the cut-off that I miss, so long term you only actually lose a small potential of the profits.

You simply place the bets on when you can, simple :thumbs

[ProPocer]

OK sounds cool. Then for the differences between 11.5 and 13.0, I might just stick to one cut-off for all 3 systems to maker things easier. Say 12...

[Win2Win]

OK sounds cool. Then for the differences between 11.5 and 13.0, I might just stick to one cut-off for all 3 systems to maker things easier. Say 12...

You could, but the cut-offs I publish are the ones based on each systems risk, average winning price, average price, etc

[ProPocer]

I've only just noticed there's an SP option on betfair now! But it seems you can only stake to your liability not to backer's stake. Why can we not have both options? Then we could just place everything at SP. If you take that option when exactly does BF place the bet for you?

[Win2Win]

All is explained here: http://www.betfair.com/help/Help.SP.Betting/ :thumbs

You can only use liabilty due to the way the bet works.

[ProPocer]

Mate that long odds on was sick!!

[Win2Win]

If you're using fixed stake you lose little when an odds on shot wins, but make more than you can lose and long term they are profitable regardless of individual results.

[ProPocer]

wow a dead heat!

[ProPocer]

Yeh well with that particular bet I had money on a couple of the bigger priced horses, I mean if the system says it's supposed to lose then you HAVE to take advantage of a massive price that's going to win imo.

[Win2Win]

:doh That's not the system rules! So unless you've researched 100's of past results with what you are doing you are likely to turn a profitable system into a losing one :doh1:. Do not try and fix what is not broken :rolleyes:. If you don't stick to the rules of a system then it is no longer a system.

[ProPocer]

No I know, I still layed the horse, any other betting in the race is separate- fun bets :smile:

[Win2Win]

Keep a running total of 'fun bets'. If you want to take gambling serious you soon get bored of them when you see the losses mount up!!!

[ProPocer]

Hehe. Can I ask, do you lay to liabilities or stakes? Any idea which works best of the two?

[Win2Win]

I lay to stakes, but if it's a odds on horse I use liabilty of the stake :smile:

Don't swap and change the normal bets, just keep on with what you decide at the start. Which one is more profitable? Shouldn't really be that much differnce over all.

[ProPocer]

What has the largest swing been in these, if you can remember? ie collective number of pts lost before an upturn...?

[Win2Win]

Around 50% of the bank, which isn't unusual for laying :yikes: ... but it adds a bit of spice to it :ooo

[ProPocer]

I read a few pages back into the turbo lay thread that you've had two 100pt swings?

[Win2Win]

Yep, but if you've built your bank up and reduced stakes then 100pts would be less of a hit than someone just starting out, especially with a small bank.

[ProPocer]

One, more thing, for future reference for setting liability laying to SP, what is the average price lay?

[Win2Win]

List 1: Average odds 6.62 ... Average Win odds 5.49
List 2: Average odds 5.81 ... Average Win odds 4.34
List 3: Average odds 6.13 ... Average Win odds 5.07

[ProPocer]

Is there statisticlly a better time of the year than other times for this system? Get the strong impression I joined at bang on the wrong time :+) OR is it not a system you can back check through the years using say RSB or whatever software you use?

[Win2Win]

No difference in time of year, nothing out of the ordinary at the moment that hasn't happened a few times in the past.

[ProPocer]

Looking at the original post in the turbo lay thread and seeing how many points it made every year, I find the numbers quite incredible. You say it's way harder to find a profitable laying system than a backing one. Looking at those figures I'd beg to differ. Well, alright, maybe in terms of the different numbers of systems perhaps, but in terms of pts made per system then 300-500pts in one year smashes every backing system into the weeds!

May I ask what software you use to back check these laying systems? Was it RSB (I think that's what it's called) or is there better stuff out there these days? Also, how are you working out the pts profit from the results churned out? Presuming the software isn't so awesome that it does that for you?!

[Win2Win]

I develop systems, paper trade them, then hard cash, if they do what they are supposed to then I consider giving the information out on here. I do not backfit systems as other do, it is easily researching systems without backfitting once you know what you are doing.

RSB vanished a couple of years ago, but I still use its past data for researching. I also use Raceform & Proform.

When I talk about a system/method being better than another I always refer to the ROI% (return on investment). Win betting always has a much higher ROI% than laying which rarely breaks 2%, while a Win system can have over a 20% ROI. The reason the Turbo Lays look better is just down to the turnover.

[ProPocer]

So the reason you have this data:

List 1 (SR 88%):
Average win odds: 5.5
2008: +356
2009: + 299
2010: + 211

List 2 (SR 82%):
Average win odds: 4.2
2008: +390
2009: + 813
2010: + 666

List 3 (SR 85%):
Average win odds: 6.1
2008: +218
2009: + 593
2010: + 572...

is because you've been trialling them this long and have made almost 5000pts????

[Win2Win]

I've made a lot more than that from everything I do :smile:

[ProPocer]

But you can still test your rules on past results surely with proform?? Yeh you know what you're doing but still, the chances of coming out with something great without anyway of checking history seems pretty insane :ooo

And if you've made that many points then you must be a millionaire by now :yikes:

[Win2Win]

And if you've made that many points then you must be a millionaire by now :yikes:

You should see the commission charges in that time :omg::omg::omg::omg:

You test the systems on back results, but if it fails you scrap it, you don't make it 'fit' the results as I see a lot of sellers doing with Forex systems :doh1:

[ProPocer]

What would you say is the absolute MOST money you can get on a lay at the cut-off right before the race?

[Win2Win]

What would you say is the absolute MOST money you can get on a lay at the cut-off right before the race?

That depends on what day it is and the type of race, but even on the worst day and the worst race you can still get a few grand on as long as you put it on in bits, which is what the bookies do.

[ProPocer]

:yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes:

A grand per point would be like 1.6m profit in the last 12 months :hoho:

[Win2Win]

:yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes:

A grand per point would be like 1.6m profit in the last 12 months :hoho:

...and a big wad in commission :ooo

[ProPocer]

Which we couldn't care less about :thumbs

[Win2Win]

Which we couldn't care less about :thumbs

That's the idea .... but Rangers thought that about the Tax and look what happened :laughitupsmilie: