4th March Joint Effort

[TheGoodGuy]

SEDGEFIELD
16:50
oddschecker.mobi Handicap Hurdle
£3300.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 5
14 runners
Going: Good

1 F9-9225 Realignment (IRE) D McCain Jnr 7 11 12 J M Maguire
2 01-2215 Meridiem S Regan 8 11 11 C Honour (3)
3 21-104P Pugnacity Mrs Dianne Sayer 8 11 7 Ryan Mania
4 395016 Granwood T D Walford 6 11 7 R Walford
5 P86U35 I Got Music K G Reveley 5 11 0 J Reveley
6 0560-9 Blinka Me A M Hales 5 10 13 C I Gillies
7 P45-P9P Roll Over Rose (IRE) W Amos 7 10 12 Non Runner
8 5P3-P90 The Boozy Bishop (IRE) Mrs S Walton 7 10 11 Miss C Walton (7)
9 6P7/P-86 Masra D Thompson 9 10 4 S Mulqueen (7)
10 86P0/4-R Toby Mac L R James 10 10 4 Non Runner
11 8-42PUP Darkan Road G A Charlton 7 10 4 Jan Faltejsek
12 506549 Hathamore Mrs E Slack 8 10 2 Brian Harding
13 68-P2P0 Claresburn S Corbett 8 10 1 Non Runner
14 03-075P Westwire Toby (IRE) Miss L C Siddall 10 10 0 T Siddall

Betting Forecast: 7/2 Granwood, 4/1 Realignment (IRE), 5/1 I Got Music, 8/1 Pugnacity, Meridiem, 12/1 Hathamore, Blinka Me, Darkan Road, 16/1 Roll Over Rose (IRE), 20/1 Masra, Toby Mac, 33/1 Westwire Toby (IRE), Claresburn, The Boozy Bishop (IRE)

Post your main and reserve selections, remembering to add which
type of bet you want to apply to your picks......
either Win Only (W), Each Way (EW) or Place Only (P).

Click HERE (http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?26224-Joint-Effort-Rules) for more details.

(Would ALL players please make sure they read THIS ANNOUNCEMENT) (http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/announcement.php?f=89)

Check out the NEW PRIZES which can be won each month HERE (http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?76333-NEW-PRIZES-Joint-Effort-Competition)

[piggy]

the boozy bishop ew

[johnwilly]

Realignment (win)

res. I Got Music (win)

[tovarich]

MERIDIEM (W)

If abs.,

Realignment (W)

[MarcusMel]

Pugnacity (w)

Reserve
Realignment (w)

[Bill]

Pugnacity(W) for me ta.

[lowe1]

I got music e/w

[Laf]

Darkan Road (w)

[TheGoodGuy]

Meridiem (EW)

If N/R:
Darkan Road (W)

[DarkHorse]

Darkan Road Win

[scoobydoo]

Hathamore win

[Godspot]

Blinka Me plz EW

if awol

I Got Music Win ta

[seagoon]

roll over rose(EW)tavm:rolleyes:

[Godspot]

Most typical - the 50/1 shot I done in Ireland comes last! :biggrin:

[TheGoodGuy]

1st 6 Blinka Me 50-1
2nd 4 Granwood 11-4 JF
3rd 1 Realignment (IRE) 11-4 JF

Godspot (EW) gets the winner

Positions after DAY 4
Godspot +58.50
Johnwilly +8.25
Piggy +3.00
Bill +0.33
Seagoon -2.50
Scoobydoo -2.75
DarkHorse -4.00
MarcusMel -4.00
Vegyjones -4.00
Laf -5.00
Tovarich -5.00
Ada -5.75
Lowe1 -8.00

[Godspot]

Blinka Me plz EW

if awol

I Got Music Win ta

How & Why - Luck or Judgement?

A little method to the madness –

First off, complete luck, as selection 50% based around jockey stats & unbeknown to me there had been a jockey change about Blinka Me which may have affected my decision (although Killian Moore’s career stats for hurdles doesn’t read too bad) but

A pundit on Timeform radio recently said when asked what’s the first thing you look for in a horse – ‘jockey,’ he said.

In a recent interview with old mate Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field, Tom Segal of Pricewise, said much the same thing at about the same time & coincidentally,

(besides all the wind up phone calls telling me how much money he’s making, lol), the guy that first got me into horse racing in the first place, we been talking again – he hasn’t changed his tune & it’s like he always said –

‘best jockey, best price.’

So, while the stats for trainer Alex Hales didn’t read too good, those for Campbell Gillies at the course, were clear 4th best and the odds for the first three were all top of the market too short in what looked an open race imho (& according to my figures.) So the 20/s to 33/s that were floating seemed fair about Blinka Me but

Going back to a little conversation I was having with Keith (http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?69022-flat-2010&p=563946#post563946):

I, like Tom Segal again, have got this thing for 5yo’s this year (http://horseracingx.wordpress.com/2012/03/01/following-the-peaking-5yos-of-a-vintage-crop/) (as I will for 6yo novice chasers next no doubt) and there were only two in this race. Clear top-rated, I Got Music, we made him 2nd choice as while we had a 100/1 5lb Clear top winner the other week at Ludlow with Tayarat (bit of a freak result that could distort the stats?), these types are usually over-bet & generally disappoint but he wasn’t too short so would do as an alternative. The other, well, Blinka Me, on the other hand, a fresh, unexposed 5yo in a wide open contest with a reasonable jockey at fair price, that’ll do me tavm as a tentative EW selection…..