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Godspot

13th November 2012, 17:09

Not often these days that Mordin & my figs fall out of synch & most often the case when they do is down to his use of Sectional Timing. I been meaning to start a thread to keep a record of such cases for some time & what with new jump season ahead, now would seem as good as time as any....

First off, a Mordin to Official Rating Converter:

45/180
44/176
43/172
42/168
41/164 Gold Cup Class
40/160 Gr2 weak Gr1
39/156 Gr1 Novice
38/152 Solid Gr3
37/148 Listed / Weak Gr3
36/144

POSTED ON NOVEMBER 5, 2012

MY TENT OR YOURS AND TAQUIN DU SEUIL TOP CLASS NOVICES

It's hard to know just how good very lightly raced horses are. So once or twice a season the connections of two such horses fail to avoid each other. The result is that we see two genuinely top class horses contest a minor race.

My ratings say this happened in a class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot last Saturday where two horses duelled from a long way to pull clear of the field.

The winner was MY TENT OR YOURS (39) who was always cruising while racing a little keenly in the rear. He began to make ground in impressive fashion after four out and looked set to coast by runner up Taquin Du Seuil as he moved up to him approaching the last. But the Taquin Du Seuil is clearly a smart horse in his own right and rallied as the winner headed him.

A measure of just how much the first two accelerated to take each other on can be gleaned from sectional times. These show that the field got from the first jump to four out 5.1 seconds later than they did in the big handicap hurdle earlier on the same card over the same trip. From there they covered the remaining six furlongs 3.2 seconds faster. When I adjust my ratings to reflect this it points to a Grade 1 class performance by the first two across the line.

My Tent Or Yours is a barrel-chested sort that has the build of a two and a half mile steeplechaser. He's a good actioned horse and has been steered away from soft ground except for his debut where he hosed up on good to soft in a Bumper. My bet is that long term he will prove best over two and a half miles and may dislike soft and heavy going. But I'd be more sure of the former idea than the latter.

The acceleration that My Tent Or Yours showed to gain ground quickly and easy just as the pace was quickening suggests to me that he'd be an interesting candidate for a valuable long distance flat race next Summer. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a remarkable record with jumpers he targets such races with.

At some point the connections of My Tent Or Yours are going to have to decide whether to keep him over two miles as a novice hurdler or step him up to two and a half miles. He has such pace it will be very tempting to persevere over two miles. But I have a maxim that a horse will perform best at the outermost limits of its stamina. At shorter trips it can get outpaced. Over longer it's in danger of not lasting home in a truly run race. For this reason I think My Tent Or Yours should try and emulate his stablemate Simonsig who won the big two and a half mile hurdles at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last year. Next season, when he will surely be switched to chasing, his obvious target would be the Jewson.

Runner up TAQUIN DU SEUIL (39) is a different sort of horse. First of all he shows knee action, so I'd bet on him proving best with cut in the ground. Secondly he looks built for at least two and a half miles.

In the early stages Taquin Du Seuil was having trouble getting his eye in at the jumps. He hesitated over two hurdles and over jumped another two. One settled down he raced in second place, kicked on entering the straight and then staged a big rally when the winner went by after the last.

Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough for chasing and is the first foal of a dam that won over fixed brush hurdles in France. He showed smart form in long distance Tierce/Premier handicaps in France over two miles, finishing second to Listed winner Inside Man and third to Group 1 performer Tac De Boistron.

Race times suggest the going was good to firm at Ascot, so it's clear Taquin Du Seuil can handle such a surface. The race also made it clear that he's very effective over two miles, even when the runners accelerate sharply in the closing stages on fast ground. However his physique says so clearly he wants longer distances and softer ground that I have to believe that will prove to be the case.

Long term Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough to jump a fence. Meanwhile the Challow Hurdle at Newbury next month looks an obvious target.

Further back in the field we had a very interesting runner in the French raider WETAK (28).

Recently there has been a big increase in the number of British horses running on the flat and over jumps in France in an effort to boost the earning of their owners and trainers through the much higher prize money available across the channel. It's unusual to see the traffic going the other way. Yet here we had Wetak running in a race worth only a third as much as his latest win in September and a tenth as much as the one he contested on his last outing.

Wetak has won all three times he's run over distances short of 2m 5f over fences in France, though he got disqualified for bringing one of his rivals down on the flat around halfway in one of them. He's also run second to the smart pair Badoudal (a Grade 1 second ) and Ozamo (12 length Listed winner) in longer chases. He's yet to score in ten hurdles starts and one on the flat. Though I have to add he has the build to do well over the smaller jumps and has run a close second to a dual Listed winner over fixed brush hurdles

As is often the case with horses switching from chases to hurdles Wetak gave the jumps plenty of daylight. He made the running till headed by Taquin Du Seuil entering the straight, weakened quite rapidly but still ran a fair race. If he runs again in Britain, over fences or hurdles, especially in a handicap where he would get in off a low weight I'll be very interested in Wetak's chances. I should say though that it generally takes two runs for a chaser to adapt back to hurdles, so I'd like to see him go back to the bigger jumps or have another try over timber before risking my money on him. http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm

Win2Win

14th November 2012, 09:55

Godspot

15th November 2012, 01:49

I've never bothered with sectional timings, all they tell you is the pace per each individual race, and I can see that by watching the race. It may effect the result of that race, but has little to do with future races as you are comparing apples and pears in this country, unlike the US which has similar tracks all over the country.

Sectional times are just another variable to make the form more complex than it needs to be. The vast majority of pro-gamblers don't use them. Each to his own though :smile:

I don't either - I just don't like it when our figures differ so wildly - although I had given the winner a 148 prior to this run - 156 is in excess of 20lb that I (& the Racing Post TS & rpr) could give the race - more often than not though, Mordin will be proved right, he is quite meticulous in his work.

Talking of Sectional Timing in general though - when possibly maybe, Frankel is crowned 'Champion the Wonder Horse' of all time in the very near future - it is my humble opinion that, it is only by using Sectional Timing that you can truly capture his brilliance.

Godspot

17th November 2012, 03:19

Godspot

21st November 2012, 16:11

& this a stone + better than anything I or the RP have given to the winner or 2nd here!

POSTED ON NOVEMBER 12, 2012
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm
SIZING RIO HAS BIG CHANCE IN SUPREME NOVICES

SIZING RIO (40/160) impressed me greatly when winning the Grade 3 For Auction Novice Hurdle at Navan. He made the running at a decent pace and then accelerated without urging to have most of his rivals in trouble after three out. The really impressive part of his victory though was how he accelerated again to swamp the runner up for finishing speed when that one came up to try and challenge him on the run in.

The time that Sizing Rio clocked was Grade 1 class for a novice by my reckoning. And the way he picked up tells me he can almost certainly run faster.

I concede that Sizing Rio is built and bred for three miles over fences and has already won a point to point. However he is a very athletic sort of chaser that clearly has speed and acceleration as well as stamina.

Jockey Andrew Lynch told trainer Henry de Bromhead after the race that Sizing Rio "was a bit hard to get around the bends in front." On reviewing the video this didn't look to be of much importance. Lynch did have to pull a bit on the left hand rein rounding the second turn and the home turn. But Sizing Rio never came off a straight line and he jumped every hurdle as straight as a die.

Most inexperienced horses show steering problems of some sort which they soon work out of. And Sizing Rio was very happy to lean in towards the rail rounding the turns when Lynch showed him through the reins that this is what he wanted him to do.

De Bromhead added "He is real galloping horse and the faster they go the better he is. He is a big raw four-year-old and he is a real horse for the future and fences. We will give him a break now and probably bring him back for Leopardstown at Christmas. Hopefully there won't be a problem with him going left-handed there. He is not entered in the Royal Bond and I think he will be better on better ground."

I don't see any problem with Sizing Rio going left handed in future. So I'd expect him to win the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas at Leopardstown. I also agree with de Bromhead's remarks about the horse being likely to prefer faster ground. Most horses with a turn of foot like his do. All in all he looks to me like developing into Ireland's main hope for the Supreme Novices. So the 33-1 Boylesports are offering about him for that race is surely way too big.

Runner up TED VEALE (39) was brought with a well timed late challenge but simply couldn't go with the winner in the last hundred yards when he accelerated for the second time. He's clearly a smart hurdler. He lost his first try over timber, like most horses do. He also failed to stay 2m 5f on his previous run. But he would have been a six length winner scoring for the third time in a row here if he'd skipped that one race where he didn't stay.

Ted Veale's trainer says he's not big enough for steeplechasing, but my numbers say he's good enough to win pretty much any novice hurdle where he can avoid Sizing Rio.

I do no know why third placed CELTIC CAILIN (36) improved to run a two and three quarter length third in a mares Grade 3 last time or why she improved again here. But the way she moved up to join issue with the first two before failing to go with them when things got serious suggests that she's a threat to win a patter race restricted to her own sex soon."

Godspot

3rd December 2012, 15:55

More to come yet but this is 20lb better than I or the Racing Post could manage:

DIAKALI LOOKS A SMART JUVENILE

You will rarely see a horse win more easily than DIAKALI (37/148) did on his hurdling debut at Gowran Park. The Swiss Derby fourth is a strong, stocky sort that jumped well and looked as if he was simply having a schooling session all through the race.

From the fifth to the seventh Diakali stepped up the pace, running that one minute section of the race 2.4 seconds faster than the mares did in the next contest. This show of speed soon had his rivals in trouble and he was able to simply coast clear up the straight with his jockey sitting motionless as he went steadily further clear.

The time Diakali ran only merits a rating of 28 from me. But I feel pretty sure he could have sustained the increased mid race speed he showed till a minute before the end of the race if only there'd been something to make a race of it with him. I've built that assumption into my rating which suggests he's likely to prove one of the better juvenile hurdlers.

Diakali showed some smart form in France and was a close fourth in the Swiss Derby which is invariably as good as a British or Irish Listed race. He does show a little knee action but the Swiss race was run on fast ground, so I'm not anticipating any problems with him handling a quicker surface.
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm

Godspot

3rd December 2012, 16:00

Looks like we're in for a vintage Gold Cup too, Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs &

SILVINIACO CONTI SETS THE STANDARD FOR GOLD CUP

If you believe the official race times SILVINIACO CONTI (43) ran really slow when winning the Betfair Chase. He officially ran 3.6 seconds slower than the winner of a class 2 handicap chase over the same course and distance earlier on the card.

In fact the slow time was down to the fact that the field for the Betfair Chase stood for several seconds at the start and then almost walked towards the first fence because nobody wanted to take the lead. If you time the race from the first fence and compare it with the other two chases on the card from that point to the subsequent fences and the finish things look very different:

Qtz d tx.......Silv Cont....Mons Cad

3m ch.........3m ch.......3m 4f ch

13.26..........14.33........13.73

27.19.........28.93........28.59

39.99..........42.39........42.46

52.99..........55.46........55.93

91.33..........92.86........92.73

106.19......107.99........107.99

122.73......124.33........124.73

137.46......139.26........139.86

191.73......192.13........193.73

204.73......204.79........206.59

218.46......217.99........221.33

231.06......230.39........234.79

243.79......242.66........248.13

279.66......277.53........284.13

294.13......291.13........298.39

309.99......305.59........314.33

324.66......319.33........329.33

339.59......333.93........344.39

As you can see Silviniaco Conti didn't go fast early but did not set that slow a pace. He was never running more than about 2.5 seconds behind the handicappers in the early part of the race. He'd caught up by the eleventh fence and then powered away from them, reaching the finish 5.66 seconds ahead of the handicappers - not 3.6 seconds behind.

This kind of discrepancy happens all the time in jump races. It's basically impossible to make sense of the times horses run - flat or jumps - without sectional timing.

Now that I've got that off my chest, let me say that Silviniaco Conti jumped well, even when he picked up the pace, and he clocked a time that would win four out of five Cheltenham Gold Cups.

I was pleased to hear after the race that trainer Paul Nicholls is keen on the idea of giving Silviniaco Conti the winter off and taking him straight to the Gold Cup from this race. The horse's record says this would be a very good idea.

So far Silviniaco Conti has won nine times out of ten from March to November and lost all five times he's run from December to February.

I worry a little that Silviniaco Conti is a bit on the small side for a chaser and might get crowded into trouble in the big field that always lines up for the Gold Cup these days. But he won a thirteen runner race over fixed brush hurdles around a tight track in France so I can't see any good evidence that a big field might be a problem for him.

The stats certainly suggest Silviniaco Conti is a major player in the Gold Cup. If he goes straight to the Gold Cup from this race he will probably be one of only four or five runners that match up to what I think are the two strongest statistics for the big race, These two stats are:

* Fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase.

* The last twenty three Gold Cup winners earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 155 last time out, or on their last completed start, and that rating was within seven pounds of their highest ever. Or they earned their biggest ever Racing Post rating on one of their last two starts.

I can understand that some jump fans will be disappointed at not seeing one of the stars of the winter sport more often. I recall these sort of feelings being expressed when Best Mate and See You Then were being prepared for their hat tricks in the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Some criticised Best Mate's trainer Henry Knight for being too cautious in not running him more often while some fans called Henderson's brilliant hurdler 'See You When?' due to his infrequent appearances.

The truth is big races over jumps really take it out of a horse. It's rare for a horse to win one that has a lot of miles on the clock. As I've noted above fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences before their big win. Paul Nicholls should be applauded for doing the right thing with Silviniaco Conti. http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm

Godspot

10th December 2012, 14:10

Looks like we're in for a vintage Gold Cup too, Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs &

Yup - good little list this: [I have emboldened recent winners]

"Last season was the strongest I can recall in the last couple of decades for novice chasers.

In a normal season there are only eight or ten novice chasers that earn ratings of 39/156 or more from me.

Last season there were twenty one. Namely Al Ferof, Blackstairmountain, Bobs Worth, Bog Warrior, Champion Court, Cristal Bonus, Cue Card, Days Hotel, Flemenstar, For Non Stop, Grands Crus, Invictus, Last Instalment, Lucky William, Notus De La Tour, Peddlers Cross, Penny Max, Restless Harry, Sprinter Sacre, Silviniaco Conti, Sir Des Champs http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm

Godspot

20th December 2012, 17:38

This is a bit confusing as Mordin doesn't use weight (or weight for age etc) for his figures:

DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE SHOOTERS WOOD
http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm
SHOOTERS WOOD (40/160) clocked a Grade 2 class time when making almost all the running to win a good two mile handicap chase at Cheltenham. He jumped well and rallied to re-take the lead after being headed briefly on the run-in.

According to trainer Paul Nicholls Shooters Wood is best over two miles and on left handed tracks. He would have won all four times he's run around two miles over fences on left handed tracks if one photo had gone his way. And he's unbeaten in three tries at Cheltenham.

The time that Shooters Wood clocked here suggests he's capable of winning pretty much any two mile chase on a left handed track below championship level. So the fact that his official rating will still only be around 140 after this race suggests he will be tough to beat in any two mile handicap he contests in the near future. He certainly looks to have a favourite's chance in the Grand Annual.

Runner up HIS EXCELLENCY (39/156 but 172 in mine?) is an oddball in that he tends to hang left, flash his tail and weigh anchor if he sees too much daylight. Tony McCoy rode a great race to bring him from far back to head the winner on the run in before getting caught when Shooters Wood rallied.

His Excellency is a good-bodied, classy looking sort that clearly has any amount of ability. He hated being asked to make the running in one race on a left handed track but has won five of his other most recent eight starts on left handed courses in fields of eight or more. Seeing how hard he is to ride and how well McCoy rode him here my bet is his connections will try to book the champion jockey for His Excellency any time they can. In any big field handicap around a left handed course the pair will be hard to beat.

biyax

26th December 2012, 21:34

too complicated

Godspot

16th January 2013, 05:18

too complicated

Makes no sense to me ? ?

Godspot

16th January 2013, 05:27

I thought this looed a race for the Henderson 2nd string & so it proved but

Beating one of our featured above horses on only 2nd start - has to be good?

DON'T UNDER ESTIMATE CHATTERBOX

Most people seem to think that the recent win by CHATTERBOX (39/156) at Newbury was a fluke caused by a combination of heavy ground and a slow early pace. The numbers I see in front of me suggest something very different.

Yes the early pace was slow. But they picked up tremendously in the closing stages. Compared with the one hurdle that was strongly run throughout (the Juvenile race) they came home 3.27 seconds faster from the second hurdle and a monstrous 10.27 seconds faster from three out. Whether I rate the race from the second jump or invoke my sectional timing formula to combine ratings for the last three flights and the full distance I come up with the same big rating of 39. That equals the best rating earned by a novice hurdler in Britain so far this season.
The fact that the horse that the runner up previously earned the biggest rating I'd previously given a UK novice hurdler this second suggests my interpretation of the sectional times is correct. As does the fact that the 12.75 length fourth Hells Spirit had finished 12.50 lengths behind Puffin Billy on his previous two starts. Puffin Billy is regarded by many as the top UK novice hurdler.

The popular view is that the runner up and long odds on favourite MY TENT OR YOURS (37) was left with too much ground to make up in a race clearly run to suit those sitting close to the pace. However the furthest behind he ever got from a long way out was down the far side where he was only 1.2 seconds behind the leader. He closed to within 0.7 seconds of the leader two out but Chatterbox then got away from him again, crossing the line 1.1 seconds ahead.

I accept trainer Nicky Henderson's explanation that My Tent or Yours didn't like the heavy ground. He ran a couple of lengths a mile below his best according to my ratings. But he still produced a pattern class performance and continues to look a big player for the Supreme Novices and the other Spring Festivals when the ground should be more in his favour.

Chatterbox is now unbeaten in two starts. He won a Bumper on his sole previous outing in which he and the runner up pulled well clear of their rivals. Nicky Henderson says he's not as mature as his stablemate My Tent Or Yours and will therefore probably not be going to Cheltenham.

Chatterbox is the only foal of a dam whose sole win came in a two and a half mile steeplechase (she's a half sister to staying chaser My Will). His sire gets quite a few chasers too, mostly over at least that far. So it seems likely that Chatterbox will be switching to the bigger jumps next term. Meanwhile I'll be very interested in his chances in any decent novice hurdle he contests for the rest of this season. He looks likely to be massively under-rated.

Third placed BEST BOY BARNEY (37/151) set the moderate pace but couldn't go with the winner when he quickened away and then just got outrun for second by the pacier runner up. He won impressively on his only point to point start and will surely be wanting further than the two miles of this race on normal ground. I don't know why he flopped a few days later but would bet on him bouncing back to win soon.

Godspot

30th January 2013, 00:02

FAGO A SERIOUS ARKLE PROSPECT

http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm

French import FAGO (39/156) clocked a seriously fast time to win a good novice chase at Newbury on his first UK start. Assistant trainer Dan Skelton said "we haven't had him long" and it showed. Fago seemed to get fazed by the water jump, jumped big at three down the far side and then ploughed through the last.

However none of the jumping errors cost him any ground as he was fairly tanking along throughout and ploughed on regardless. He finished his race out strongly and may well be able to run even faster when he's more used to the UK jumps.

Fago is a pretty tall, strong sort that has already run second in the top French chase for four year olds, the Prix Maurice Gillois over 2m 6f. But this run showed he has plenty of speed and marks him out as a serious prospect for the Arkle. He's obviously a keen going sort and ran too fast and stopped in a longer race three runs back. So right now the Arkle has to be the way to go. His new trainer Paul Nicholls and jockey Ruby Walsh can work on getting him to settle so that he can last longer distances later.

Runner up OHIO GOLD (38/153) could not go with the winner in the closing stages but kept on really well to beat the rest clearly. Jockey Brendan Powell said after his fourth last start that Ohio Gold can lose interest in a race. In this regard I note with interest that he's won three out of four on tracks a mile and a half or less in circumference and run second to Ballabriggs in his only loss. He's lost all eleven times he's run on bigger courses. So good as this run was around Newbury's two mile oval I'm going to prefer him in tighter courses in future. For this reason I'd say he's more of an Aintree than a Cheltenham prospect.

Godspot

9th February 2013, 11:58

Fascinating complexity on the figures today:

Diakali goes in the first at Leopardstown but doesn't say a lot for the Irish Triumph hopes as Ruacana is my top rated & I know W Mullins rates his Blood Cotil

And then Chatterbox goes in the first at Newbury trying to give over a stone to Nicholls Triumph hope Lac Fontana - he'd have to win by more than 10l's to be considered for that?

2.25 Silviniaco Conti - too short to bother with?

3.00 Shooters Wood looks up against it though could be wrong but doubt it?

And My Tent Or Yours in the 3.35, looks too short in the betting for my liking as there are plenty more better off at the weights imho

Godspot

10th February 2013, 12:29

Ruddy annoying, both Chatterbox & My Tent Or Yours win again without clocking a decent time :ass2 best left to the sectionals ? ? But I think we can forget Lac Fontana as a Triumph prospect.

Old Mordin was talking Silviniaco Conti for 2013 Gold Cup way back in December 2011 & yesterday as far as my clock is concerned, easily the best trial of season so far but can he beat Bobs Worth?

Godspot

13th February 2013, 00:38

Godspot

26th February 2013, 01:47

Bit of a fun read - well, 1st 2 paras?

KEEP AN EYE ON WHITBY JACK
http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm
I had a Great Aunt who believed in Christian Science; I worked with a man who dyed his hair bright green and shouted at an invisible friend; and I heard of another guy who put on a rubber diving suit, charged on all fours into his company’s boardroom and bit the chairman on the ankle while growling like a dog. But for full on, barking at the moon, tin foil hat crazy nobody beats the bloopers the BHA handicappers occasionally make with their official ratings.

The BHA handicappers have a weight for age scale that allows young horses to meet their elders on insanely favourable terms compared with elsewhere in flat races. They have a nutty practice of moving up a horse only a bit at a time in the official ratings even when it’s just shown massive improvement. And they have a totally off the wall policy that leads them to drop a horse’s official rating massively simply because it’s been absent for a fairly long time.

The idea of building in assumed deterioration into official ratings makes a little sense with really old horses as they are apt to deteriorate with age. But it makes no sense at all with a young horse like WHITBY JACK (25). The handicapper thought he was good enough to carry top weight in a Grade 3 at the Cheltenham Festival just four runs back. But last Saturday he was carrying close to bottom weight in an unlisted handicap at Ascot despite winning impressively in a career best performance on his previous outing.

Whitby Jack moved up and looked the be going best of all with four to jump. But he slithered on landing at the third last and nearly sat on his backside. This seemed to cause him some kind of physical problem as he was soon back-pedalling. He was allowed to come home in his own time from soon after two out.

Whitby Jack is a good-bodied, strong sort that looks built for three miles and fences. Nonetheless he’s shown some smart form over hurdles. All he needs is soft ground and a vaguely recent run.

Before this run Whitby Jack had encountered ground that race times indicate was slower than good twice when he’s had a run within the last few months. He hosed up both times.

The first occasion was in a juvenile hurdle at Fontwell run over the unusually long distance of two miles, two and a half furlongs. There are only a handful of juvenile hurdles over that far and Whitby Jack clearly appreciated the distance. He was always moving well but it was in the last couple of furlongs when stamina became an issue that he really started to dominate, blasting fourteen lengths clear of his rivals to win in very fast time.

The time Whitby Jack clocked was the fastest on the card, around 0.8 of a second faster from the first to the finish than the next fastest race which was won by a Listed class older horse. The thing is Whitby Jack was eased heavily on the run in. This slowed his final time by around 0.7 of a second. If I factor that into his speed rating it bumps it up from 37 (Listed class) to 38 (Grade 3).

Next time out Whitby Jack was asked to tackle fast ground under top weight over a shorter distance at the Cheltenham Festival. The ground was just too fast for him. He was then brought down and injured at Ascot before returning 21 months later in a handicap at Sandown. Where he pulled hard against the slow early pace and tired.

Trainer Gary Moore said after that race “I thought he was a certainty at Sandown last week, but they went no pace and he pulled too hard.” Horses often pull hard on their first run after a long break. And it’s obviously hard to get them fit after such a long absence.

On his next and latest outing Whitby Jack encountered soft ground following a recent run for a second time and he won well just as he had on the first occasion.

The distance was a rather inadequate two miles at Kempton. But thanks to a strong early pace and soft ground it proved enough of a stamina test for Whitby Jack to dominate in the closing stages and pull clear, having moved much the best from a long way out.

The sectional times of the hurdle races that day at Kempton show that the field went much faster in the first third of the race than in any of the other races. They then slowed mid race before quickening up again to clock the joint fastest time to the finish. The other joint fastest time was by L’Unique who I rate one of the best juvenile hurdlers this season.

Whitby J...L'Unique..Oscara D...Cloudy C

2m hdl......2m hdl......2m 5f hdl...3m 110y hdl

16.66.......18.26........18.06........18.66

65.66.......68.59........68.79........70.33

75.99.......78.93........78.86........80.66

127.33....128.06......127.13.......130.93

154.39....154.33......152.39.......158.53

206.99....205.39......207.06.......213.86

223.53....223.19......225.06.......233.93

236.86....236.86......239.79.......249.59

…………………..(236.27).…(241.94)

No doubt the problem Whitby Jack experienced at Ascot was only a temporary one. He will surely be exploiting his very lenient mark in a similar race sometime soon.

Godspot

6th March 2013, 04:01

Certainly going to be interesting next week considering the fire-power Will Mullins has in the hurdle ranks not least as:

ANNIE POWER LOOKS A CHAMPION HURDLE PROSPECT
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm

All four hurdle races at Naas last Sunday featured sprint finishes. The difference between the Grade 2 Paddypower.com Novice Hurdle and the other three is that the early pace was much stronger. As a result the time from the first jump to the finish was 7.87 seconds faster than in any of the other races.

Annie Power and Defy Logic must be exceptional to produce the burst of speed they showed from two out off a good early pace. My ratings suggest they are right up there with the very best novice hurdlers we've seen this season.

Up to the second last the race looked like just being a solid Grade 2. But when the first two started sprinting they left their rivals floundering in their wake., rapidly pulling eight and a half lengths clear of third placed Don Cossack who had moved well to that point but then got badly outpaced.

Tony McCoy on DEFY LOGIC (160) had ridden a canny race, setting a fair pace but saving enough to produce a tremendous surge from two out that would have routed most fields. Indeed he'd won his previous two starts by 34 and 35 lengths.

Defy Logic was rather keen and clearly wanted to go a bit faster early, so I'm going to excuse the fact he raced with his head rather high. I got the impression that perhaps he was disliking the hood he was wearing. But he suffered his only previous loss the sole time he wasn't equipped with headgear, so no doubt there's a reason for it.

Defy Logic is built and bred for longer than the two miles of this race and has already won over two and a quarter miles. Given his build and the fact he's by Flemensfirth it's tempting to suppose he won't be good enough to win a Grade 1 until he switches to fences. But he's awfully pacey and Flemensfirth has produced three Grade 1 winning hurdlers in Backspin, Muirhead and Pandorama. So I wouldn't discount his chances of winning the Neptune on that score.

In fact Defy Logic now ranks as joint fastest on my ratings of all the likely Neptune runners along with the favourite Pont Alexandre. But he's clearly got a better turn of foot than that one so I have to rate his chance very highly. I'm therefore surprised to see a couple of bookies still offering him at 25-1 for Cheltenham.

ANNIE POWER (41) is clearly an exceptional talent. She has won all six of her starts to date and looks awfully hard to beat. The fact she was able to go with a horse that produced such smart acceleration and then power away from him was most impressive.

It's been a while since a mare won the Champion Hurdle but I have to say that's the race I'd be thinking of long term for Annie Power after this run. For now I'd be wary of opposing her in novice company and would be very interested in her chances if she ran in the Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

Third placed DON COSSACK (36) moved well until getting totally swamped for finishing speed by the first two from three out. Clearly he would do better over two and a half miles and better still over fences next season.

UN DE SCEAUX A TOP CLASS PROSPECT.

Willie Mullins has clearly got some very good talent spotters in France. Every year he seems able to produce at least one Grade 1 prospect imported from what is now Europe's dominant racing nation.

This time around that prospect is surely UN DE SCEAUX (38) who set a strong pace and just kept on running to win a Punchestown maiden hurdle from a pattern class rival.

Un De Sceaux had won two mile and a half bumper races in France and this race was only two miles. However this sire's best progeny have been three mile chasers and there is loads of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree too (she was slow but ended up over fences). So long term I'd say we're looking at a three mile chaser here. He certainly jumped really well and is clearly a smart prospect for novice chases next season. Though I imagine Willie Mullins will adhere to the current fashion of keeping top three mile chasing prospects to two and a half miles or less as novices.

Mullins said after the race "He’s been doing that sort of work at home. He jumped very well for a horse having his first run over hurdles and I think the time was huge considering the gallop they went. We’ll see how he comes out of it, he’s very hard on himself, but he looks like a very good addition to the novice hurdle ranks."

That latter comments looks highly significant as to date every run of Un De Sceaux has been preceded by a break of several months. From Mullins' comments it sounds like he's one of those horses that always runs fast and requires longer than most horses to recover from an outing.

Generally speaking horses that need to be kept fresh are okay on their first two runs of the season and then require breaks of at least five weeks thereafter. On De Sceaux has had two runs this season, so I'd like to see his next run five weeks or more hence.

Godspot

17th March 2013, 04:31

Now the Triumph gets interesting -

myself & RPR are with Nicky Henderson's Rolling Star

the Racing Post's TopSpeed Paul Nicholls' Far West

But Mr Mordin, he goes with:

POSTED ON FEBRUARY 11, 2013
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm
OUR CONNOR JUST HAS TO WIN THE TRIUMPH AFTER THIS HUGE RUN

OUR CONNOR (41) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a juvenile hurdler since Detroit City when demolishing his rivals to take the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown by five lengths. The strong, good-bodied gelding was moving a lot better than his rivals from a long way out and cruised clear to win comfortably.

There aren't many juvenile hurdlers that have as good a physique for jumping as Our Connor has. And it's been a long time since we saw one run as fast.

For comparison Champagne Fever completed the last two miles of the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle 2.26 seconds slower than Our Connor, and Champagne Fever was not running slow.

I have a hard time seeing how anything can beat Our Connor in the Triumph following this huge run. He's hosed up in all three of his starts over timber and had the juvenile who'd previously earned the biggest speed rating from me this season over nine lengths back in third.

Runner up DIAKALI (39) is fast enough to win almost any Triumph Hurdle on my ratings.

Says a fair bit for the use of sectionals imho but

& for the first time 'almost officially' they are introduced at Cheltenham & this makes for a fair read not least as slowest race of the week contained the fastest finisher, At Fishers Cross

""Timeform’s chase handicapper, Phil Turner, has awarded Sprinter Sacre a provisional figure of 192p, which takes the horse above the likes of Desert Orchid (rated 187 at his best) and Kauto Star (191) in the modern era.""

Oh, that's handy, they got all the secionals here too!
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-rac...130313-43.html

Simon Rowlands | 13 March 2013

With sectionals now in for the first two days, it is possible to make further comparisons before races are switched to the New Course for the last two days of the Festival.

Firstly, these are the closing times and finishing speeds of the winners themselves, expressed as a % of the horses’ average race speeds, and assuming (in the absence of accurate distance measurements) that 3 out is 3.9f from home on the hurdle course and 3.7f on the chase course:

CHAMPAGNE FEVER 56.33 sec (98.0%)
SIMONSIG 57.56 sec (95.8%)
GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN 56.93 sec (100.3%)
HURRICANE FLY 60.56 sec (92.0%)
QUEVEGA 57.1 sec* (100.8%)
RAJDHANI EXPRESS 57.7 sec* (98.9%)
BACK IN FOCUS 59.6 sec* (99.4%)
THE NEW ONE 55.87 sec (103.0%)
LORD WINDERMERE 57.64 sec (100.7%)
SPRINTER SACRE 55.97 sec (98.0%)
MEDINAS 57.03 sec (100.9%)
FLAXEN FLARE 58.0 sec* (97.1%)
BRIAR HILL 54.6 sec* (100.6%)
* = hand time
The higher the % figure, the faster the horse is finishing compared to its average race speed. A low % finishing speed usually indicates a strong earlier pace, as in Hurricane Fly’s case.

In absolute terms, The New One ran from 3 out nearly 5 seconds quicker than Hurricane Fly did in winning the Champion Hurdle the day before, while Sprinter Sacre ran from 3 out more than 1.5 seconds quicker than Simonsig did the day before.

The comparison between The New One and Medinas (over the same course and distance on the same day) does not tell the whole story of those two races, however. The overall times were similar, but the leader in the Coral Cup went considerably quicker early on, reaching the fourth flight 6.86 sec ahead of the leader in the Neptune/Baring Bingham and still being 3.65 seconds ahead three flights later.

Medinas was 2.82 seconds and 1.11 seconds respectively behind the Coral Cup leader at those two junctures before closing up as the pace eased three out. The New One was never more than 0.52 second in arrears in the much more steadily run novice event.

As for Sprinter Sacre, historical race median sectionals are somewhat misleading in that the second-last was resited after 2010 and therefore only two years’ worth of data is valid (and the 2011 Champion Chase was notably slowly run).

Nonetheless, it is clear that a lot of the damage to Sprinter Sacre’s rivals occurred early on. Sprinter Sacre was close to race median until four out despite conditions being quite a bit more testing than usual. Thereafter, he kept up a sound gallop with little apparent exertion while his rivals wilted to varying degrees.

The from-3-out times and finishing speed %s for all runners in the Champion Chase were as follows:

SPRINTER SACRE 55.97 sec (98.0%)
SIZING EUROPE 60.37 sec (92.5%)
WISHFULL THINKING 58.97 sec (95.2%)
SANCTUAIRE 59.59 sec (94.4%)
TATANIANO 60.47 sec (94.3%)
MAIL DE BIEVRE 72.22 sec (84.1 %)

It could be argued that the beaten horses might have finished closer to Sprinter Sacre ridden more efficiently. What cannot realistically be argued is that Sprinter Sacre was all out in winning: he appeared to have a tonne in hand still passing the line.

Eulogies will come from many directions regarding Sprinter Sacre’s remarkable performance. They should come from the field of time analysis also. He achieved a top-class time despite seemingly never hitting top gear, while his comfortably achieved sectionals were in the end far too good for a high-class performer in Sizing Europe and were far too good for the rest from well before that.

What a horse!

Day ¾
BENEFFICIENT 59.19s (97.6%: race par 97.2%)
HOLYWELL 55.34s (96.8%, taking final time as 357.2s: race par 95.1%)
CUE CARD 60.85s (94.4%: race par 95.1%)
SOLWHIT 56.46s (94.9%: race par 95.1%)
CARRICKBOY 62.69s (93.1%: race par 95.1%)

There is not a great deal of note in those figures, though Holywell finished quite quickly and Carrickboy quite slowly. As mentioned in the main body, Cue Card was not at all flattered on the face of it by making the running, as he did so at a generous enough pace.

Cue Card’s time compares well with Carrickboy’s on a one-on-one, 4.89s faster despite carrying 19 lbs more, and he was ahead of that horse from start to finish, by more than a second early on, by more than two seconds mid-race and by an increasing margin late in the race.

Time analysis lends plenty of weight to the notion that Cue Card should be rated in the 170s. It is arguably the performance of the week so far outside You Know Who.

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/cheltenham-results-reviews/cheltenham-results-handicappers-corner-day-3-140313-43.html

Firstly, it must be acknowledged that time analysis is difficult when ground conditions deteriorate, as they did on the fourth and final day of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival, such that the going was heading towards heavy by the end of play.

That said, the way we look at sectionals at Timeform means that such circumstances do not affect matters as much as might be supposed. The important thing with sectionals is the % of a horse’s overall time that horse spends in each sectional. The optimum sectional %s will vary only a little as a result of different ground, but the overall time may of course vary greatly.

Another, more intuitive, way of expressing sectional %s is to convert them into a finishing speed expressed as a % of the horse’s average race speed. This is achieved by using (100*d*T)/(D*t), where “d” is the sectional distance (estimated if necessary), “D” is the overall race distance, “t” is the horse’s sectional time and “T” is the overall race time for the horse.

On day four, this gave the following finishing speed %s for the winners:
OUR CONOR 55.43 sec from 2 out, 14.98 sec from last (finishing speeds of 94.6% and 90.4%)
TED VEALE 59.40 sec from 2 out, 16.73 sec from last (90.7% and 83.2%)
AT FISHERS CROSS 56.31 sec from 2 out, 14.84 sec from last (101.4% and 99.4%)
BOBS WORTH 64.36 sec from 3 out, 20.06 sec from last (94.1% and 88.2%)
SALSIFY 64.51 sec from 3 out, 20.56 sec from last (96.4% and 88.4%)
SALUBRIOUS* 63.9 sec from 2 out, 17.8 sec from last (87.3% and 81.0%)
ALDERWOOD** 60.8 sec from 3 out, 18.3 sec from last (97.0% and 94.2%)
* = hand time, ** = hand time and last fence omitted
Distances estimated as 3.6f from 2 out hurdles and 3.8f from 3 out chases, and measured by TurfTrax as being 204.21 yards from the last hurdle and 244.32 yards from the last fence.

It can be seen straight away that At Fishers Cross finished easily fastest compared to the horse’s average race speed. The conditions were testing, but that race still tested speed more than might be imagined. Our Conor ran the closing stages not far from par (none of his rivals could stick with him though), Ted Veale finished slowly and Salubrious finished slower still. Over fences, all three winners raced quite close to par late on, though in relative terms the Gold Cup was testing stamina the most.

The one-on-one comparison between the Gold Cup won by Bobs Worth and the Foxhunter won by Salsify makes interesting reading, though TurfTrax returned figures only for finishers, so the leader’s pace in the Foxhunter (in which just four finished, and that did not include the early leader) would have to be established by hand.

The Foxhunter was quicker in absolute terms early on than the Gold Cup, but race medians tell us this is (somewhat surprisingly) customary. Salsify was held up well behind but was not far behind where the runners in the Gold Cup had been over the first few fences. Thereafter, the Gold Cup runners kicked on and were ahead from about the ninth fence on. By the finish, Bobs Worth had run a time more than 11 seconds quicker than did Salsify.

A more meaningful comparison would be between the horses in the two respective races and the median sectionals for the races they ran in from the previous four years. In both cases, the overall time was around 106% that of the historical race median time. Bobs Worth ran the middle of the Gold Cup at 104% to 105% of the historical sectional medians, indicating that he was going quickly enough compared to his final time, while Salsify ran the middle of the Foxhunter at around 107%, indicating that he was hanging back, not just in the race but compared to precedent.

Overall, Bobs Worth ran his race closest of the principals in the Gold Cup to sectional par, averaging a variance of 1.24% per sectional, whereas Sir des Champs averaged 1.95%, Long Run averaged 2.31% and The Giant Bolster averaged 2.53%.

These between-rivals differences are not as marked as happened in the Champion Hurdle earlier in the week, and there is nothing to suggest that Bobs Worth was anything but the best horse in the Gold Cup, but it does underline that he probably ran a bit more efficiently than his rivals, not least because they wilted late on and he did not.

There is an almost limitless potential to analysing and expressing sectionals, of which the above merely scratches the surface. Now, wouldn’t it be nice if we had the opportunity to do this a bit more often in UK than at present?

The 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup was such an event. It had a compelling beginning, middle and end, several subplots, and in the end an equine hero in Bobs Worth very deserving of the prestige that goes with victory in this historical race.

Long Run took them along tenaciously on rain-softened ground, Sir des Champs hassled him from halfway, the pair briefly looked to have it between them when Silviniaco Conti fell three out, and then Bobs Worth, who had been hampered in that incident and touched 10 in running on Betfair, found remarkable reserves to sweep past going to the last.

So strongly was Bobs Worth still going by the line that he reached it with seven lengths to spare over a tired Sir des Champs. Long Run, the 2011 winner, was a further two and three quarter lengths back in third, with The Giant Bolster back in fourth.

This looks strong and solid form, even by Gold Cup standards, though we have had some exceptional winners over the years, not least Kauto Star (who paraded before this race) in 2007 and 2009. The only real unknown is how Silviniaco Conti would have fared had he stood up: he was going every bit as well as the two ahead of him when departing but traded at no lower than 3.25.

Bobs Worth has been given a provisional rating of 178 (against a five-year average for winners of 176), with Sir des Champs running to 172 and Long Run to 169. The winner is still only eight, is lightly raced with just four runs over hurdles and six over fences, and likely to be difficult to knock off the top rung, assuming he gets a good test of stamina, as here.

"Drama" scarcely begins to describe the finish of the following Foxhunter Chase, in which Oscar Delta swerved and unseated Jane Mangan when a few lengths to the good on the run-in, leaving success to the favourite and previous year's winner Salsify (provisional rating of 139).

Salsify came from well back in a race run in a quicker time early on than the Gold Cup and went as big as 20 in play, while Oscar Delta was matched at a painful 1.02 (and seems destined for immortality as a "What Happened Next?" quiz question).

The testing conditions played their part in horses getting strung out in most of the races but even with that in mind Our Conor's success in the opening Triumph Hurdle was a performance the like of which has not often been seen at the Festival.

Having travelled strongly close up, Our Conor cruised to the front after two out and stormed clear to win by 15 lengths, a record margin for the race. His provisional Timeform performance rating of 160 is 12 lb ahead of the five-year average for winners, and the unbeaten gelding did it with plenty to spare. Short-priced quotes for the 2014 Champion Hurdle do not look to be an over-reaction.

Salubrious delivered an overdue Festival winner to traine rPaul Nicholls in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, while Alderwood capped a tremendous Festival for Irish-trained horses with success in the concluding Grand Annual Chase (McCoy on board again). Both horses are likely to have run to a rating in the region of 150.

The 2013 Cheltenham Festival will be remembered for many things - for cold and then wet weather, for a host of Irish winners and for a small number of serious injuries to man and horse - but perhaps it will stick most in the mind for the Champion Chase romp of Sprinter Sacre, a giant of the game.

A good Festival - almost a great Festival - then. The next one may be a year off, but the anticipation has already started!

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/cheltenham-results-reviews/cheltenham-results-handicappers-corner-day-4-150313-43.html

Simon Rowlands