MarcusMel
13th April 2013, 14:27
In my search for betting systems I came accross the following :-
RULE 1
Never bet on “Maiden” races.
RULE 2
Never bet on “Apprentice” races.
RULE 3
Never bet on “Handicap” races with more than 16 runners.
And a clever staking plan.
Depending on the odds of the favourite horse in the race you will bet
on the first 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 horses to win:
Odds Of The Number Of Horses
Favourite Horse To Bet On
3.00 – 3.99 2 horses
4.00 – 4.99 3 horses
5.00 – 5.99 4 horses
6.00 – 6.99 5 horses
7.00 – 8.00 6 horses
You will always bet the same amount of money on each race and
divide it equally over the number of horses you are allowed to bet on
according to the above table.
Is there anyway of back testing it?
I have been forward testing it with a variation - 30pence bets on WillHill if the Fav is <=3 start the above plan using the 2nd Fav. 3weeks of testing on nearly every race show that it loses money very slowly which has me thinking that with a set of filters like courses where winning Favs are high it might be a workable system.
In case someone asks "what if the 2nd Fav is less that 3.00?" No bet on the race. If more than one horse has the same odds and is not going to be covered by the number of bets is open to discussion, no bet is probably the best answer, but what does the math actually say?
RULE 1
Never bet on “Maiden” races.
RULE 2
Never bet on “Apprentice” races.
RULE 3
Never bet on “Handicap” races with more than 16 runners.
And a clever staking plan.
Depending on the odds of the favourite horse in the race you will bet
on the first 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 horses to win:
Odds Of The Number Of Horses
Favourite Horse To Bet On
3.00 – 3.99 2 horses
4.00 – 4.99 3 horses
5.00 – 5.99 4 horses
6.00 – 6.99 5 horses
7.00 – 8.00 6 horses
You will always bet the same amount of money on each race and
divide it equally over the number of horses you are allowed to bet on
according to the above table.
Is there anyway of back testing it?
I have been forward testing it with a variation - 30pence bets on WillHill if the Fav is <=3 start the above plan using the 2nd Fav. 3weeks of testing on nearly every race show that it loses money very slowly which has me thinking that with a set of filters like courses where winning Favs are high it might be a workable system.
In case someone asks "what if the 2nd Fav is less that 3.00?" No bet on the race. If more than one horse has the same odds and is not going to be covered by the number of bets is open to discussion, no bet is probably the best answer, but what does the math actually say?