Cheltenham Festival Day 1 – Thoughts

[Win2Win]

We kick-off this great meeting with the 1:30 Supreme Novice Hurdle. A race that has seen many massive gambles over the years, and this year it will be no different. There has already been a lot of money for the P Nicholls Iriving. This horse has been improving race by race, and looks to have a great chance. Favourites usually go well in this race, and so it is one to have some money on. Vautour and Wicklow Brave are both trained by Mullins, and he targets this race each year. Vaniteux, Henderson’s horse, got back to winning ways last time with an easy win at Doncaster, it has also taken a lot of money in the last week. As this race will be fast and furious, and it usually goes to a fancied runner, I’ll be dutching the four runners.

[Win2Win]

2:05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Well this race was won by Simonsig last year, going off at odds on carrying a lot of money. There is nothing of that calibre in this race, but it still has a number of high class entries. Grandouet has been consistent, but was easily seen off by Dodging Bullets last time. That horse itself managed to get beaten by Module last time. I don’t think that either of those two have the form to win this race. Trifolium has the beating of Champagne Fever. Rock On Ruby is a previous Champion Hurdle winner, and although he does still need to show some improvement, he has the class to win. I’ll probably just have a smallish dutch bet on Trifolium and Rock On Ruby.

[Win2Win]

2:40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase

The first big handicap of the meeting, and unless my systems throw up win or lay bets in this type of race, I usually avoid them from a method betting perspective. A number of these runners have previously gone well in this race, but the form is mixed. Tony McCoy’s mount Alfie Sherrin has been targeted for this race, but the jockey can struggle at this meeting for winners some years. Because he rides it, the horse will go off a shorter price than it should, and it may be worth laying. Apart from mentioning that one horse, this race is a bit of a lottery.

[Win2Win]

3:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

The big race of the day, and one that always gets the blood flowing. The question in this race is can Hurricane Fly win it again, at the age of 10? I see no reason why not, as his form is still holding up well. My Tent Or Yours beat The New One over the Christmas period, and they are likely to be close again. I can’t help feeling though that the form is not really good enough to win this race. My Tent Or Yours is probably worth a lay bet. This is not a race to get heavily involved in this year.

[Win2Win]

4:00 Mares' Hurdle

This race has become Quevega’s own, and it is tremendous training by Mullins for what the mare has done in her life so far. She goes for her SIXTH win in this race, and is likely to take all the beating again. All of the other runners have to give the Mullins horse weight, and the way she powered up the hill last year, shows that a warm-up race is not required.

[Win2Win]

4:40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

It is usually best to stick with experience amateurs in this race, as some of the not so well-known ones can struggle over this 4m trip, and can get the tactics wrong. The race is likely to go to one of the fancied ones at the front of the market, and so it is best to dutch Foxrock, Shutthefrontdoor, Shotgun Paddy, Midnight Prayer, Suntiep.

[Win2Win]

5:15 Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase

A terrible race to finish the day with, and probably one for the magic pin. In a race like this I would be looking for a horse to lay at the front of the market rather than trying to find a winner in this minefield. Ericht fits the bill for a lay. Has to carry top weight, and his form doesn’t really look as good as his rating suggests.

[Win2Win]

What a great days racing, and bagged Vautour in the first. No idea what happened in the Arkle, apart from the bookmakers getting rich!

Alfie Sherrin in the 2:40 proved a positive lay, and I also had a small dutch on the first 5 in betting, which included Holywell.

I got done in the Champion hurdle, but a great race, so didn't mind giving some money back. Good win for Jetzki though. Bad news about the decent Our Connor though, who was put down after suffering a back injury.

Quevega managed the unthinkable, and managed an amazing six in a row. Most people alive today will probably never see that record broken, and she could carry on the sequence next year. The bookies got taken for a ride, and I made a few quid on the race.

The 4:40 proved a profit race, and even dutching those runners 5 horses, due to the odds, it still paid well.

Ericht managed to really screw his race up with bad jumping, and so another profitable lay on the day.

So overall I came out on top by a decent margin. Roll on day 2.

[Godspot]

I wonder if anyone got paid out on whether the ground was 'good' - can't help thinking they should have been?

[Win2Win]

They've changed the way they do the timing at Cheltenham :doh. It looks like they are using a faster watch :doh1: