Win2Win
4th April 2014, 20:50
Day No.3 of the Grand National meeting at Aintree, and if you have followed my previous write-ups, then you should be in profit.
1:30 Pertemps Network Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
A great start to the day with the really tough Mersey Hurdle, and as it was won by a 22/1 shot last year, it shows you that anything can win. As with my usual method rule, if the race is difficult to solve, and you can tell just by glancing at it, it is much easier to find a lay bet. SEA LORD was supposed to be a decent animal, but at Cheltenham he was shown to be under top class, as he was beaten in a Gr2. So a lay bet on this one.
2:05 Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
This is usually a race that goes to form, even though a 28/1 shot won it last year. TRIFOLIUM ran a good race at the Festival, and I can see him going well again at this faster track. HINTERLAND was going well when falling at the Festival, and is another that should go well. NEXT SENSATION is a handicapper in a Gr1, and looks out of his depth, so a lay bet.
2:50 Silver Cross Stayers' Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1)
AT FISHERS CROSS is an out and out stayer, and as long as they go a good clip here, should win. ZARKANDER finished behind him at the Festival, and struggles to win these days, usually finding one or two quicker horses. I think AT FISHERS CROSS is too short a price though, if he goes 2/1 or more I’ll have a win bet. I will be laying ZARKANDER.
3:25 Betfred TV Handicap Chase (Listed)
Another big handicap at this meeting, and compared to the others, this is a nightmare. UNIONISTE has shown that he likes this track, winning here twice before. He would likely win this easily at level weights, but this is a handicap, so he has to give weight to all of the other runners. I still expect him to give a good account though, and at around 7/1, with 22 runners. Is worth a small EW bet.
4:15 Crabbie's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap)
Use a pin! Seriously, this is not a race to get heavily involved with financially. TIDAL BAY will stay all day, and looks a solid EW bet. The only downside is the amount of weight he gives away. LONG RUN is the class horse, and won last time out. He’s not as good as he used to be, but should still go well. Another EW. BALTHAZAR KING may find it strange here, as he usually faces the cross country course at Cheltenham, and does very well there. If he handles them, he could go well, so EW. These are only small fun bets though, nothing serious. Just watch and enjoy the spectacle. The best way of making money on this race is to back in-running after they make the last turn.
5:10 Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)
This is the worst race of the meeting, and one best ignored for betting purposes before the off.
5:45 Weatherbys Private Banking Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2)
This is a better NHF than the one yesterday with the mares, however, it isn’t really that kind to favourites. MODUS ran better than his form suggests at Cheltenham, but this is a tough race, and I would expect him to be beaten again. I won’t be laying him at 8/1 though, and I will just sit back, count my profits for the meeting, and watch this race.
1:30 Pertemps Network Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
A great start to the day with the really tough Mersey Hurdle, and as it was won by a 22/1 shot last year, it shows you that anything can win. As with my usual method rule, if the race is difficult to solve, and you can tell just by glancing at it, it is much easier to find a lay bet. SEA LORD was supposed to be a decent animal, but at Cheltenham he was shown to be under top class, as he was beaten in a Gr2. So a lay bet on this one.
2:05 Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
This is usually a race that goes to form, even though a 28/1 shot won it last year. TRIFOLIUM ran a good race at the Festival, and I can see him going well again at this faster track. HINTERLAND was going well when falling at the Festival, and is another that should go well. NEXT SENSATION is a handicapper in a Gr1, and looks out of his depth, so a lay bet.
2:50 Silver Cross Stayers' Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1)
AT FISHERS CROSS is an out and out stayer, and as long as they go a good clip here, should win. ZARKANDER finished behind him at the Festival, and struggles to win these days, usually finding one or two quicker horses. I think AT FISHERS CROSS is too short a price though, if he goes 2/1 or more I’ll have a win bet. I will be laying ZARKANDER.
3:25 Betfred TV Handicap Chase (Listed)
Another big handicap at this meeting, and compared to the others, this is a nightmare. UNIONISTE has shown that he likes this track, winning here twice before. He would likely win this easily at level weights, but this is a handicap, so he has to give weight to all of the other runners. I still expect him to give a good account though, and at around 7/1, with 22 runners. Is worth a small EW bet.
4:15 Crabbie's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap)
Use a pin! Seriously, this is not a race to get heavily involved with financially. TIDAL BAY will stay all day, and looks a solid EW bet. The only downside is the amount of weight he gives away. LONG RUN is the class horse, and won last time out. He’s not as good as he used to be, but should still go well. Another EW. BALTHAZAR KING may find it strange here, as he usually faces the cross country course at Cheltenham, and does very well there. If he handles them, he could go well, so EW. These are only small fun bets though, nothing serious. Just watch and enjoy the spectacle. The best way of making money on this race is to back in-running after they make the last turn.
5:10 Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)
This is the worst race of the meeting, and one best ignored for betting purposes before the off.
5:45 Weatherbys Private Banking Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2)
This is a better NHF than the one yesterday with the mares, however, it isn’t really that kind to favourites. MODUS ran better than his form suggests at Cheltenham, but this is a tough race, and I would expect him to be beaten again. I won’t be laying him at 8/1 though, and I will just sit back, count my profits for the meeting, and watch this race.