a game of two halves (football). sys

[presto]

how often do you hear that comment??????????

well here's my system to try and profit on it.
the odd's of one team to win the first half and the other team to come back and win the game are generally between 25/1 and 40/1.

basic criteria:
both teams must be strong in attack and weak in defence.
both teams must be fairly equal

stake:
1 point team a / team b
1 point team b / team a
(only small bank so 1 point for me will probably be 50p)

addiditional info:

i will not be backing up my selection with lots of data (just using my oppinion).

i will look carefully at early fa / carling cup match's - as when there is a big (ish) club VS minnow club the smaller clubs often play theire heart's out at the start of the game. before they tire and the class of the bigger club tell's.

any oppinions on the sys, would be appreciated.

[tophatter]

Hi Presto

Ive looked at this before and tried it in lucky 15's but havent done it in a long time now. What i tended to do was quite simply look for relegated threatened teams to be winning at half time, and bank on them sitting in the dressing room at half time and thinking we just got to hold it, then when they let a goal in after half time the self belief drains away and they capitulate. I know the season Luton went down this happened almost weekly and we were even 3-0 up at half time against Wrexham at home and we lost 4-3!!!!
Its an intresting idea presto and im sure it could throw up a result or two quite often. In my opinion its more likely to happen in the lower leagues where goals are often scored more freely and players might not be so experianced.
At the very worse its a bet that stays alive as long as a team is winning at half time and could give some entertaining saturdays waiting for that magic goal that could earn you a few quid!

All the best

tophatter

[presto]

cheer's tophatter,

i almost forgot about using lower league teams, (and that's what gave me the idea in the first place) - memories of the last few games of the season on the 'vidi-printer'

i did place one of these bet's last season (and swore i would never do it again)

preston / stoke - these games tended to be high scoring messy affairs so i deceided to either bet preston 4-3 (same as last season) or ht/ft pne/stoke. (both @40/1) i took the ht/ft. - 'drink inspired' (£25) and with 10 mins to go it was 3-3 north end winning the first half, i started wishing we would loose. but we won 4-3 and i was cursing the fact i had ever considered doing a ht/ft

[MattR]

Was looking at this very thing today. You are right, the odds are very high for a turnaround result. I'm wondering whether you can even go to four bets and include half time draws in.

For example, tonights Man U, BArcelona game odds on Ladbrokes are......

Man U/Draw 16/1
Barcelona/Draw 14/1
Man U/Barcelona 28/1
Barcelona/Man U 25/1

Enough profit margin there to put four bets on. Not saying this is an ideal game but just using it as an example. You only need to hit one in four to break even. So if you can find some statistics to back up the selections it certainly looks a good possibility.

Am trying to find some stats on the web for last seasons results that give half time scores as well, so as I can study this and see what sort of percentage of games actually come into this outcome. Teams that concede late goals are ideal for this as you say.

[MattR]

Ok, haven't found a site yet to check last years English/Scottish but found a site that gives current results and half times too.

Done some quick calculations on those results across Europe and also Argentina and Brazilian results were there too. This is for every match played those two days so no systems, opinions or anything to weed out games.


Saturday 2/8
Type
Win/Draw 19
Win/Win (other team) 5
Other combinations 88

% hit rate 21/4%

Sunday 3/8
Win/Draw 12
Win/Win(other team) 4
Other combinations 70

% hit rate 18.6%


So, considering tha absolutely nothing was taken into consideration to eliminate games (I.E one game was 7-0 so not likely to be a candidate for this!) I would consider this certainly merits a further look. I might take a look tomorrow and break it down into countries to see if there are variations there.

Does anybody know which countries football you can actually get these type of bets on? I know that ladbrokes/Vic do Germany, Argentina and Brazil and I assume France and Spain at least. What about places like the Scandinavian leagues and Czech?

[MattR]

Still trying to find somewhere with last seasons results (that have half time scores as well).

Just working some maths out.......

If you were to take the normal English weekend fixtures I suppose on average there are somewhere around 5-10 score draws. This means those also have to be not draws at half time. So that needs to be looked into as well. Let's say for arguments sake, half of those are not draws at half time. Which will give us about 4 correct results. If these pay around 13/1 then that gives us £52 at £1 stake won. However 42 losses would also happen.

Going to study it some more, see if I can find some qualifiers to take some games out of the equation. Will run it on here I think from start of the season to see how it pans out. Try it 2 or 3 ways. Of the top of my head I'm thinking something like these....

System 1
Back all games at £1 stake for four options:
win/win(opposite) *2 (both teams for win)
draw/win *2 (both teams for win)

System 2
Back all games at £1 stake for two options:
draw/win * 2 (both teams)

System 3
Take out all games that bookies have win odds down for one team of say 4/6 or less, then on the rest:
draw/win *2
win/win (opposite) *2 (both teams for win)

Thoughts?

[codford]

I think your system three will miss out on some big money as teams such as man u are short odds to win every week and yet 15 times last season (not europe) they were loosing or drawing at half time and came back to win.

[MattR]

I think your system three will miss out on some big money as teams such as man u are short odds to win every week and yet 15 times last season (not europe) they were loosing or drawing at half time and came back to win.


Thanks for the info on the bbc site. You are right, from what I've seen on the latest results, many more are drawing half time and winning score full time, trouble is the odds mostly reflect this. I've seen them as low as 7/2 for this. Whatever one we do I think it's going to have to be tailored to the match in question certainly rather than a blanket approach (though of course you pick up some nice money on upsets that way). I will start the season with paper, run it a few ways and see how it pans out.

[ecjst1]

Thanks for the idea presto. Paper traded this system for the first time yesterday.
Selected 12 matches with 4 possible outcomes: H/D, H/A, A/D & A/H. From the 12 matches I picked out 3 winning bets; 14/1, 28/1 & 33/1! 3 winners from a total of 48 bets made 30 points profit! With a strike rate of only 6% it is not a bad return. I will keep an eye on this system over the next few weeks to see how it performs. Ooo

[ecjst1]

Carrying on from the weekend there were 4 matches which looked good for this game of two halves system. From these 4 midweek matches, a total of 16 bets produced 1 winner at 25/1. This made a further 10 points profit to add to the 30 fom the weekend. Will keep you posted about what happens over the weekend. :spinning

[ecjst1]

Here are my match selections for Saturday 20th September. Each match covered with:

Home/Draw
Home/Away
Away/Draw
Away/Home

Burnley v Bradford - loss
Barnsley v Swindon - A/D: paid 14/1
Bournemouth v Rushden - A/H: paid 28/1
Brighton v Sheff Wed - loss
Peterboro v Colchester - loss
Kidderminster v Lincoln - loss
Mansfield v Yeovil - loss
Southend v Carlisle - H/D: paid 14/1
York v Bristol Rovers - loss
Man United v Arsenal - to play

10 matches = 4 bets per match = Total of 40 bets.

From 40 bets today there were 3 winners; 14/1, 28/1 & 14/1. That ensures 19 points profit with still 1 match to play. After the systems 2nd week it is now 62 points in profit. Will keep you posted on how things progress in the coming weeks. If it carries on like this I will have to start putting proper money on!!! Ooo :spinning

[MattR]

Nice one Ecjst1, I've been keeping an eye on this since Presto first mentioned it and since I posted. I've only made one money bet and picked Man C first half, Arsenal 2nd and won at 28/1. Very nice :)

I would think that the best bets for this to happen would be close games where the home team is slightly better and away games for top teams.

[presto]

well judging by the sucsess of you lot i thaught i would give it a go this time. all of the fixtures are taken from tonights cup fixtures, i think that the cup may work well with these types of bet as, the smaller team will go all out at the begining, but class will tell in the end.

Blackpool v Birmingham
(Half Time/Full Time) Blackpool - Draw LOST 16/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 8.00 Returns:

2 23/09/2003 Blackpool v Birmingham
(Half Time/Full Time) Blackpool - Birmingham LOST 25/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 12.50 Returns:

3 23/09/2003 Hartlepool v West Brom
(Half Time/Full Time) Hartlepool - West Brom WON :D
28/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 14.00 Returns:

4 23/09/2003 Tranmere v Nottm Forest
(Half Time/Full Time) Tranmere - Nottm Forest LOST 28/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 14.00 Returns:

5 23/09/2003 Wycombe v Aston Villa
(Half Time/Full Time) Wycombe - Aston Villa LOST 28/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 14.00 Returns:

6 23/09/2003 Wigan v Fulham
(Half Time/Full Time) Wigan - Draw LOST
16/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 8.00 Returns:

7 23/09/2003 Wigan v Fulham
(Half Time/Full Time) Wigan - Fulham LOST
28/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 14.00 Returns:

8 24/09/2003 Coventry v Tottenham
(Half Time/Full Time) Coventry - Tottenham
28/1 To Win To Run

Stake: 0.50 To Win: 14.00 Returns:

9 24/09/2003 Oxford Utd v Reading
(Half Time/Full Time) Oxford Utd - Reading
28/1

well all of tonight's games lost, but was a bit dissapointed with how the blackpool game went - blackpoo ahead at half time (good so far) then birmingham get a pen (missed - bugger), then they have a goal disalowed,

[sportingprofit]

I've just looked at your selections and you have a winner in the Hartlepool vs West Brom game. 28/1 just looking Hartlepool scored in injury time from the spot on stroke of half time then west brom came back to win.

Not as bad as you thought at least 1 winner.

Makes the evenings tips a profit I think.

[presto]

cheers for pointing that out sp, i was wasthing sky sport's thinking 'i wish i had done the WBA game' thinking that i missed out, and even more good new's there are 2 games remaining, i also doubled the lot (about 10p each double) and it is still showing a profit of £3 with just 1 win.

[ecjst1]

Here are my selections for week 3 of this system. Let's hope it carries on from the last couple of weeks!

Birmingham v Portsmouth
Sunderland v Reading
Cambridge v Mansfield
Lincoln v Rochdale
Blackburn v Fulham
Everton v Leeds
West Ham v Millwall

Total of 28 bets. :wink

[Healio]

preston / stoke - these games tended to be high scoring messy affairs so i deceided to either bet preston 4-3 (same as last season) or ht/ft pne/stoke. (both @40/1) i took the ht/ft. - 'drink inspired' (£25) and with 10 mins to go it was 3-3 north end winning the first half, i started wishing we would loose. but we won 4-3 and i was cursing the fact i had ever considered doing a ht/ft

i wish i had read this on saturday morning!!!

[presto]

:laugh :laugh :laugh
this post is going back a bit, (one of my first) that bet still stands out as one of my most memorable. i actually remembered about it just before KO - but i stick to win singles now.

[Healio]

In light of resurrecting this thread, i have done:

Luton/Draw
Luton/QPR
QPR/Draw
QPR/Luton
--------------
Watford/Blackburn
Watford/Draw
Blackburn/Watford
Blackburn/Draw
--------------
Burnley/Stoke
Burnley/Draw
Stoke/Burnley
Stoke/Draw

One from each section, trebles for 50 cent.