mathare's False Favs

[mathare]

Monday 5th October
2.40 Pontefract Lava Lamp
3.30 Windsor Hip Hip Hooray
3.40 Pontefract Urban Poet
4.00 Windsor Citrus Star
4.10 Pontefract Star Links
4.40 Pontefract Silent Act
5.00 Windsor Hajmah
5.10 Pontefract Capeability

I normally steer clear of maidens but I think there is just about enough form in the 5.10 to make Capeability a decent lay selection

[mathare]

A couple of winners in the middle at 5/4 and 9/2 result in a loss of 0.63pts

Overall
232 from 279 (83.15%)
UP 65.69pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 6th October
3.00 Catterick On The Piste
4.30 Catterick Ishismart
5.00 Catterick Simple Jim
5.30 Catterick African Cheetah
5.30 Catterick Rosewin

[mathare]

A clean sheet generates a profit of 4.75pts

Overall
237 from 284 (83.45%)
UP 70.44pts - a new bank high

[mathare]

Wednesday 7th October
2.20 Exeter Intersky Music
2.30 Towcester Rate Field
2.40 Nottingham Kilmanseck
4.50 Exeter The Snail
5.00 Towcester Guitar Rory
5.10 Nottingham Charger
5.20 Exeter New Rackheath
5.40 Nottingham Simple Rhythm

[mathare]

Fortunately we can ignore Simple Rhythm as it went off at 14/1 (and won!) so The Snail is our only winner today at 11/2 for a total loss of 0.35pts

Overall
243 from 291 (83.51%)
UP 70.09pts

[buntyketti]

the snail had a SP of about 10..... am i misreading your system....only looking to help ....cheers

[mathare]

Thursday 8th October
3.00 Wincanton The Snail
3.10 Worcester Gan Eagla
3.10 Worcester Sir Bumble
3.35 Wincanton Vial De Kerdec
3.45 Worcester De Bansha Man
3.55 Newbury Haatheq
4.35 Wincanton Stoneriggs Merc
5.00 Newbury Implication
5.10 Wincanton Doctor Robert

[mathare]

Winners at 9/4 (The Snail, twice in two days that one has won) and 2/1 plus a non-runner but we still managed a profit of 1.03pts

Overall
249 from 299 (83.28%)
UP 71.12pts

[mathare]

Friday 9th October
2.45 York Kings Gambit
3.05 Carlisle On My Terms
5.00 York Golden Button
5.10 Lingfield Sarah Park
5.40 Lingfield Rowan Tiger

[mathare]

Sarah Park just qualifies at an SP of 9/1 and only lost by a neck so that was a close one. Rowan Tiger won though, at 11/4, to reduce the day's profit to 0.78pts

Overall
253 from 304 (83.22%)
UP 71.89pts

[mathare]

Saturday 10th October
2.30 Chepstow The Gossmoor Yank
2.55 Ascot Triple Aspect
3.00 Chepstow Gullible Gordon
3.30 Ascot Class Is Class
3.35 Chepstow Tot Of The Knar
4.40 Ascot Frozen Power
4.55 York Sam Sharp
4.55 York Some Sunny Day
5.15 Ascot Cill Rialaig
5.30 York Lady Luachmhar
5.50 Ascot Even Bolder

[mathare]

We dodged a bullet in the last with the forecast fav (Even Bolder) drifting out to 20/1 in the betting yet still winning but obviously at a much too big a price for us to get involved. So a non-runner (Frozen Power) and winners at 4/6 and 7/2 for a profit of 2.07pts on the day

Overall
260 from 313 (83.07%)
UP 73.96pts

[mathare]

Sunday 11th October
1.50 Lingfield Gassin
3.45 Goodwood Effigy
4.45 Lingfield Buckie Boy
5.30 Goodwood Count of Tuscany
5.30 Goodwood Beauchamp Xiara

[mathare]

A clean sheet (other than a NR) for another 3.8pts to add to the bank

Overall
264 from 317 (83.28%)
UP 77.76pts

[mathare]

Monday 12th October
2.00 Windsor Whipperway
3.35 Windsor Tudor Prince
3.45 Salisbury Bawaardi
4.10 Windsor Style Award
4.50 Salisbury Featherweight
5.40 Windsor Sea Lavender

[mathare]

We can ignore Whipperway (14/1), Style Award (11/1) and Featherweight (12/1) here on price grounds but the rest lost so a profit of 2.85pts today

Overall
267 from 320 (83.44%)
UP 80.61pts

I'm very conscious that although I am settling to SP+10% and factoring in commission these figures could be out compared to the real world so I will add in the Betfair SP data as and when I can. The site is down at present (Betfair are working on resolving the issues apparently) but when it pops back up I'll try and sort that data out

[mathare]

Tuesday 13th October
3.40 Leicester Moonlife
3.50 Newcastle Astrodiva
4.50 Newcastle Hurricane Thomas
5.20 Newcastle Mehendi

[mathare]

Moonlife won at 15/8 but the other three selections lost for a profit of 0.79pts

Overall
270 from 324 (83.33%)
UP 81.40pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 14th October
1.30 Lingfield In The Mood
2.40 Wetherby You Can Of Course
3.15 Wetherby Kickahead
3.35 Lingfield Equipe De Nuit
3.35 Lingfield Romantic Queen
3.45 Wetherby Striking Article
4.10 Lingfield Dabbers Ridge
4.30 Uttoxeter Mickmacmagoole
4.55 Wetherby Marleybow
5.05 Uttoxeter American World
5.15 Lingfield Ingenue

[mathare]

Winners at 5/4, 9/2 and evens, a non-runner and one going off at too big a price (10/1) means we lost 1.73pts

Overall
276 from 333 (82.88%)
UP 79.67pts

[mathare]

Thursday 15th October
3.20 Ludlow Foxesbow
3.40 Nottingham Alcalde
3.50 Ludlow Benmadigan
5.00 Brighton Simple Rhythm
5.10 Nottingham Reject


Oh, by the way, I have been foiled by my attempts to calculate profit figures to Betfair SP as I can't access the Betfair data. I don't have enough Betfair points to download what I need. I am settling to industry SP plus 10% and using 5% commission so the figures I am stating should be more or less acheivable I reckon.

[buddhabee]

Can you not get the betfair SP from here?

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/timeform

[mathare]

Can you not get the betfair SP from here?

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/timeform

Yes!

Thanks for that, I didn't know that existed

[mathare]

OK. To the end of yesterday the profit to BSP is 54.51pts if we exclude all selections with a BSP greater than 11.0. That rules out 14 runners with an SP of 9/1 or less which I would have included in the SP+10% stats so that accounts for 13.3pts. The BSP figures also come out as being equivalent to an overlay of around 16.4% rather than the 10% I have been settling to. I also found a couple of selections right near the start that had slipped through the net with too large an SP and those have now been removed such that the actual stats to SP+10% are as follows:

273 from 330 (82.73%)
UP 76.82pts

From now on I will endeavour to report profit levels to SP+10% and BSP. I am perservering with SP+10% as that's the long-term overlay I am aiming for with all the lay systems I am following and with most of them I am able to beat that figure so it's a goos target to have

[mathare]

Another clean sheet, up 4.75pts

Stats
278 from 335 (82.99%)
SP+10%: 81.57pts
BSP: 59.26pts

[mathare]

Friday 16th October
2.45 Redcar Vito Volterra
3.20 Redcar L'enchanteresse
3.45 Newmarket Leocorno
4.05 Cheltenham Maljimar
4.20 Newmarket Sea Of Leaves
4.30 Redcar Lady Hestia
5.15 Cheltenham Oscar Glory
5.30 Newmarket Meethaaq

[mathare]

Vito Volterra won at 13/2 (10.8) to spoil the day. And Meethaaq went off at too big a price (12/1 SP, 11.47 BSP) so will not be included in the stats

Stats
284 from 342 (83.04%)
SP+10%: 80.12pts
BSP: 55.16pts

[mathare]

Staurday 17th October
1.40 Catterick Drum Dragon
1.50 Newmarket Ashram
2.25 Newmarket Chabal
3.15 Cheltenham Poquelin
3.40 Newmarket Darley Sun
4.00 Catterick Interlace
4.25 Cheltenham Keki Buku
4.50 Newmarket Crystal Capella
5.00 Cheltenham Kangaroo Court
5.10 Catterick Amazing Tiger

[mathare]

Ooh, what a day Saturday was. 4 winners from the 10 selections really did for us I'm afraid.

Stats
290 from 352 (82.39%)
SP+10%: 72.62pts
BSP: 47.40pts