In Ireland

[wb]

Ah OK. Thanks

[Godspot]

3.30 Thurles

Hilgib EW

[Godspot]

2.55 Clonmell Macidoni (Ger) Win
3.15 Leop Mick The Man (Ire) EW
4.2 Leop Tranquil Sea Win

A Watching brief - a fair few Cheltenham Bumper prospects, I is a little concerned though that a run here won't leave them 'fresh for the big one:

4.5 Leop 16f NHF Araucaria (Be interesting to see if she can improve her already big RPR or whether Shot From The Hip or Sizing Mexico can turn her over.

[Godspot]

Me still thinks Araucaria is the one for the Cheltenham Bumper but today:

3.15 Downpatrick - San Giustino EW

[Godspot]

3.55 Limerick - Jack Absolute W - solid course form.

5.25 Limerick - Cracking little bumper and the most interesting runner I reckon could well be Dun Bawn EW (floating between 8-10/s) whose recent second behind Cheltenham bound Rite Of Passage, might just be enough to foil the Cheltenham Bumper drop-out of Willie Mullins - the 18lb clear rpr suggests as much...

[Godspot]

Couple of EW at Cork

2.45 Stradbally
3.55 Rock Street

[Godspot]

4.55 Punch Eagle's Pass EW fun bet
6.05 Punch Sizing Europe (Ire) Quality race to watch

6.4 Punch Jadanli (Ire) EW serious prospect! But Win if less than 8 runners. (a miserly 13/2 with BlueSq - better everywhere else! Might be worth remembering.)

[Godspot]

Maybe that race came too soon for Jadanli, there were 8 runners but finished a well beaten 4th. Eagle's Pass was placed though at 25/s

Besides Denman in the 5.30 not sure of anything today, perhaps a little EW on Four Chimneys in the 6.40 if I had to have a bet.

[Godspot]

Think I'm going to have to give up my interest in Irish racing - I need to slimline my workload but I'll keep going to end of season.

Think Nicky Henderson could be in for a good day - I'll probably get it wrong but I not keen on them big fields & will settle for a go on Riverside Theatre in the 6.40 who I fancied for the Arkle but he didn't get the hang of things till it was all over, maybe he'll get it right today, Win

[Godspot]

NAVAN

22nd Nov 24f C (0-133) 2.35

Interesting scenario going on here today:

A friend of mine went to Cheltenham last week and came back saying he got talking to an Irish trainer who gave him a couple of horses to look out for next time – one of them, GOOD FELLA (nice place record but has somthing to prove regards, trip, ground & course) 20/s generally, runs here….

Runs today in the 4.30 @ Naas - I seen my mate the other day & told him to keep an eye on him in his next few runs as he'd just started to show some form (which got a handy boost by The Sneezer winning yesterday too). I went to sleep thinking I should have took the 25/s, he's now as low as 14/s but 16/s can be had - I do fancy his place prospects.

2.30 Naas

I gotta hunch about Prince Erik being the best Left Handed performer amongst my top three rated, Montan, Bob Lingo etc & at 5/s & 6/s could represent better value than the above now?

[Godspot]

Think I'm going to have to give up my interest in Irish racing - I need to slimline my workload

That was while I was reliant on Racing Post figures - learnt a lot since then & my own ratings seem to do much better - will most definitely not be giving up & come to think of it, what with Cheltenham round the corner, I wonder if Pandorama can go left-handed?

[Godspot]

I can remember noting Church Island for a big race win on his run in this a couple of seasons ago before he went on to the Bet365 & it quite often throws a few winners -

Today I fancy Minella Boys a little -

4.10 C (0-155) QM 164 RATING ODDS

Lenabane 181 9/1

Adams Island – fresh, & 7lbClaimer puts top but fr runner? XoM PB 139+me 27dys 24gs Donc Jan 11 - Nice big, sound jumping, front runner! 181 7/1

Sarteano – fresh, Lads have < rest 179 12/1

Minella Boys – fresh, Lads have 14/s rest >XoM PB 132me 28dys P* 29gs Plump Jan 11 - 177 16/1

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Oh it's a hurdle, I thought it was a chase, the top rated here clocked a whopper from me last time as a chaser & the second has pretty much confirmed the figure by winning next time & here he is in a handicap on a mark of 106

I note the RP Ratings have him 8lb clear of the field too, pretty rare?

4.55 H (0-134) QM 143 RATING ODDS

Delphi Mountain – ff3, D 193+48 8/1
Tawaagg – fresh, D, bf 145
Luddsdenene – fresh, 7lbClaimer 144
Princeton Plains 143
The Bull HayesXoM (std +2.90s & 11lb clr) 133+me 28dys 17gss Kill Aug 11 - 142
Life Of Reilly 142
Baracas 141
Clarach 141
False Economy 138

[Godspot]

I'm going to propose an EW Ante-Post bet for Cheltenham before he runs at Leopardstown over the forthcoming festive festival - so far available on only one list, that of Stan James @ 50/1

The Arkle - River Liane(Fr)

Thought I'd seen that name before - runs today after 337 days off - making for an interesting little race 4.15 Clonmel

[Godspot]

Thought I'd seen that name before - runs today after 337 days off - making for an interesting little race 4.15 Clonmel

1/2 length 4th @ 10's & shown up on the clock by the other chase on card but even more so by the flying Noras Fancy - not finished winning yet for sure?

So, I thought Born To Sea had too high a Centre of Distribution as part of his Dosage Index Make-up & went & looked up the previous 10 winners of the race...

As it turned out it's Nephrite that's the dodgy one on the Dosage Method matching only 1/2 the criteria.

Funnily enough though my top rated Ishvana is 4/4 positive for the race & Seamie Heffernan has won it twice in the last 10 years too - if there were 8 runners I would suggest EW......

Over at Wexford both the favourites of the two chases are clear top-rated on my figs & they usually do alright when it's not Saturday

[Godspot]

Over at Wexford both the favourites of the two chases are clear top-rated on my figs & they usually do alright when it's not Saturday

11/8 & 2/1 winners, yah!

[lowey100]

Henry de Bromhead captured the Grade 2 Craddockstown Novice Chase a couple of years ago with stable star Sizing Europe, and while DAYS HOTEL isn't in his league the recent course and distance winner certainly looks capable of a bold bid. The six year-old wasn't as good as the likes of Lucky William and Whodoyouthink over hurdles but on the evidence of that chasing debut last month he is set to make up into a much better chaser. He exhibited a fine jumping technique on that occasion en route to slamming heavily-supported favourite Nearest The Pin in going that was just as testing as what he will encounter today and is very fairly priced at 4/1

[lowey100]

Henry de Bromhead captured the Grade 2 Craddockstown Novice Chase a couple of years ago with stable star Sizing Europe, and while DAYS HOTEL isn't in his league the recent course and distance winner certainly looks capable of a bold bid. The six year-old wasn't as good as the likes of Lucky William and Whodoyouthink over hurdles but on the evidence of that chasing debut last month he is set to make up into a much better chaser. He exhibited a fine jumping technique on that occasion en route to slamming heavily-supported favourite Nearest The Pin in going that was just as testing as what he will encounter today and is very fairly priced at 4/1

Won at 5/2

[Godspot]

Fascinating little contest @ Leopardstown tonight:

6.35 1 LISTED 3Y (108+ RATING ODDS

Tower Rock
DP = 11-4-17-0-0 (32) DI = 2.76 CD = 0.81 134+6 2/1f

Coral Wave XoM PB 114p me 22dys 8s Curr & JGQ & Improved Sep 11 - Improved Aug 11 - DP = 4-2-16-6-2 (30) DI = 0.88 CD = 0.00 DC too! 128 5/2

The early favourite, Tower Rock, he clocked his best on gd ground & the same stable had a another, Athens, just behind who has very similar Dosage profile - he disappointed when stepped up in trip & grade next time.

Technically speaking, Coral Wave, has more points in the stamina department & if this is a truly run race should outstay Tower Rock.

So no doubt one of J Oxx's will win, shame that Blue Corner is a NR he looked useful first time up..

[Godspot]

Fascinating little contest @ Leopardstown tonight:

Technically speaking, Coral Wave, has more points in the stamina department & if this is a truly run race should outstay Tower Rock.

Disappointingly both beaten by a more improved horse but I suppose this Dosage lark could be used for match betting?

[Godspot]

Cracking race in Ireland for time of year? Winner of this could be worth following?

Ballinrobe 5.45 17s

5.45 4 C BEGS (120- RATING ODDS

Bridgets Pet – fresh, 165+5 7/2

Plan A - c J 4 crse 160 9/4f

Argocat - bttr chaser expected says trnr Jan 12 - 154 13/2

Special Tiara – fresh & only 5th start?XoM as h [0.24spf clr] 135+ 35dys 16gs Klbgn Jul 12 - DP = 2-2-1-7-0 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.08 - v lightly raced! 139 12/1

Steel Park - c J 4 crsechaser? Had res as h T* Oct 10 before reapplied & won Mar 12 - 138

Mickelson 137

Ted Dolly – c J 4 crse 133

[Godspot]

Cracking race in Ireland for time of year? Winner of this could be worth following?

Ballinrobe 5.45 17s

5.45 4 C BEGS (120- RATING ODDS

Special Tiara – fresh & only 5th start? XoM as h [0.24spf clr] 135+ 35dys 16gs Klbgn Jul 12 - DP = 2-2-1-7-0 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.08 - v lightly raced! 139 12/1

Oh dear, going to have to put a blog together? Special Tiara, just about clocked what I call 'time of the meet' [XoM] again, which, twice from 5 starts is good but

[& while he made a complete hash of the third flight & jockey did well to stay on board, apparently, it was his jumping that won the day]

it was the next race on the card, won by another 5yo, Bruff, who I had made a note of a few runs back as having won nout from 10 starts [22s 129+ Ball 0.26spf clr Sep aftr > Nout 0-1-10 Aug 12 staying chaser?] & who was showing a bit of form I had looked up his dosage to realise, 'he's going to stay all day,' that clocked the fast time of the three chases on the card but as he only carried 10 6 against Special Tiara's 11 10 - he got the '0.20+ secs per furlong clear' award but not the XoM but being rated only 96 & earning a 129+ from me, has to go down as One to Follow too.... Does that make sense

6:15 - Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Chase·

fair x [0.26spf clr] 129+ WW 7k gng well st J'd well 15R 13dys 22s Ball Sep 12 - 07Class! JP McOwned - DP = 0-1-2-5-2 (10) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.80

2m6f, €8,625.00

1 Bruff 4/1
2 Western Star 11/4F
3 Bishop's Lane 6/1

15 ran Distances: 11l, 6l, ½l

TIME 6m 11.70s (slow by 32.70s)Jockey: Jody McGarveyTrainer: M F Morris

[Godspot]

I couldn't quite obtain such a high figure (due to his use of sectionals) but was most definitely thinking along the same lines:

TRADING LEATHER IS GROUP 1 CLASS
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm
TRADING LEATHER (38/114) ran a seriously fast time to run away with a Gowran Park maiden over a mile last Sunday. He set a decent pace then really poured it on over the last three furlongs, completing that part of the race two full seconds faster than they went in the Group 3 on the same card while powering seven lengths clear.

This run marks Trading Leather out as one of the best two year olds we've seen all season. He's built and bred for longer distances. And the way he was finishing tells me he'll have no trouble at all staying the Derby distance next year. I'd be wary of opposing him if he turns out again for the Royal Lodge or the Beresford Stakes this weekend. In fact I rate him so highly I have to give him a real shot of winning the Racing Post Trophy even if Dawn Approach lines up. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Derby looks awfully generous."

[Godspot]

A horse, a horse! I'm going to shout before old Nick Mordin gets there on this one & like it a lot, my guess would be the Irish 1,000 Guineas to start with but been backed for Epsom Guineas & Oaks

2:40 - Anglesey Lodge Equine Hospital Blenheim Stakes (Listed Race)

XoM 119+ Listed 2nd start 90dys 7R 7l's Easily 6hy Curr Sep 12 - OuterinQ FTO Imprsv! 8l's 1st/12 6hy Naas Jul 12 - Gr1 E'd dam w 12f - DP = 2-2-13-1-4 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = -0.14 DC & TDS

6f, €25,675.00

1 Viztoria 5/2F
2 Snow Queen 100/30
3 Tennessee Wildcat 10/1

7 ran Distances: 7½l, 1¾l, 3¾l
TIME 1m 17.00s (slow by 6.00s)

Jockey: Johnny Murtagh
Trainer: Edward Lynam

[Godspot]

I couldn't quite obtain such a high figure (due to his use of sectionals) but was most definitely thinking along the same lines:

TRADING LEATHER IS GROUP 1 CLASS
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm
TRADING LEATHER (38/114) ran a seriously fast time to run away with a Gowran Park maiden over a mile last Sunday. He set a decent pace then really poured it on over the last three furlongs, completing that part of the race two full seconds faster than they went in the Group 3 on the same card while powering seven lengths clear.

What a cracking card @ Newmarket last Saturday, nice to have a winner too & he just ran to that 114 again & thought 5/2 was quite generous but

I just looked up Raz De Maree's new rating, he's been upped 9lb from 123 to 132 for his 7l's win @ Limerick on Sunday but the fact that he got a 154 from me & a 156 from N Mordin leaves him something to play with:

4:25 - Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A)

XoM PB NMQ 50% ftc > 40k WW 37dys [0.67spf 46lbclr] 39/156nm gd hwy soft' 24shy Lim Oct 12 - DP = 0-0-5-5-2 (12) DI = 0.26 CD = -0.75 DSt -
3m, €48,000.00

1 Raz De Maree 7/1
2 Quietly Fancied 16/1
3 Questions Answered 5/1J

14 ran Distances: 6½l, hd, 4½l

TIME 6m 27.80s (slow by 38.80s)
Jockey: Bryan Cooper
Trainer: D T Hughes

"RAZ DE MAREE STAYS REALLY WELL
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm
I liked the way that RAZ DE MAREE (39) stayed on remorselessly from four out to win the Munster National by over six lengths in good time. He came home more than a second faster over the last four jumps than the useful winner of the novice chase did in a contest over four and a half furlongs shorter. Both races were truly run but his time works out as four lengths a mile better on my ratings.

Raz de Maree was being rowed along all the way from four out until settling the issue between the last two and going clear. He clearly has abundant stamina to keep going so strongly at the end of a strongly run three miles on heavy ground.

Two runs back Raz De Maree lost his action when second on good ground at Kilbeggan. He's now lost all five times he's run on going faster than yielding but won both times he's tackled three mile plus chases on a softer surface.

Given his lack of stature it's possible that Raz De Maree won't take to the big fences at Aintree. But I'd like to see him given a shot in next month's Becher Chase. His trainer Dessie Hughes has won that race with two of the three runners he's had in it (the other ran third). I can see Raz De Maree winning it too if his official rating goes up enough for him to get into the race and the ground has a bit of cut in it."

[Godspot]

2.45 Punchestown

Interesting little race -

One for the future, Drawn N Drank, looks like a Cross Country Chase prospect on breeding at least but

If that's right:-

"SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tricky race and the market will be particularly telling. Rule The World will likely find this trip too sharp, Hot Prospect will find it too far unless he settles and that leaves CLEAR HILLS, whose Listowel run was fairly encouraging. [Johnny Ward]"

Then my 27lb clear top-rated [Clear Hills] could be worth a shout @ 9/2

[Godspot]

I just looked up Raz De Maree's new rating, he's been upped 9lb from 123 to 132 for his 7l's win @ Limerick on Sunday but the fact that he got a 154 from me & a 156 from N Mordin leaves him something to play with:

4:25 - Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A)

XoM PB NMQ 50% ftc > 40k WW 37dys [0.67spf 46lbclr] 39/156nm gd hwy soft' 24shy Lim Oct 12 - DP = 0-0-5-5-2 (12) DI = 0.26 CD = -0.75 DSt -
3m, €48,000.00

1 Raz De Maree 7/1
2 Quietly Fancied 16/1
3 Questions Answered 5/1J

14 ran Distances: 6½l, hd, 4½l

TIME 6m 27.80s (slow by 38.80s)
Jockey: Bryan Cooper
Trainer: D T Hughes

"RAZ DE MAREE STAYS REALLY WELL
http://www.nickmordin.com/ireland.htm

Nice! Just won the Cork National @ 11/2

But next one for Notebook has to be Friday's Down Royal winner, BONISLAND, he just got a 161+ from me...

[Godspot]

2.45 Punchestown

Interesting little race -

One for the future, Drawn N Drank, looks like a Cross Country Chase prospect on breeding at least but

Well he didn't take long winning at Navan yesterday at 12/1...

One most definitely one for the notebook though from Punchestown last week:

Nov 17th 2012 – hy

is now 3 from 4 over fences, clocked 'time of the meet' twice and 'regained the lead' on both occasions....

1:05 - AGK Displays Craddockstown Novice Chase (Grade 2)

XoM =PB [0.68spf clr o 2c's] 165given pos175? Made m gd p 'regained ld Gr2 4R 20dys 16hy Punch Nov 12 - xom as c 165pos Gr3 WW as regained ld 35dys 17s Galw Oct 12 - Ger bred - DP = 3-0-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.60 DC!

2m, €26,025.00

1 Twinlight 9/1
2 Baily Green 9/2
3 Jenari 9/2

4 ran Distances: 1l, 94l

TIME 4m 11.00s (slow by 11.00s)

Jockey: R Walsh
Trainer: W P Mullins

[Godspot]

Not altogether sure & I didn't hear Mr Mordin ranting about Aupcharlie but

2.15 Wex - Mr BB 21/s with Stan James

My guess is that time will prove an OR of 84 slightly under-estimating his ability but ? ?