Speed Figures - A Primer

[Godspot]

Going back some, dear old Mick (whatever happened to I wonder?) started a thread called Speed Figs & this is a bit of an extension on that as at around the time I started generating my own & selections here will be based around them.

We've now got 4 months worth to play with & while it's nice sitting & waiting for the random outsider to come in I am missing shorter priced winners nearly everyday & need to put the figures to the test.

I'm going to try for as near 50% SR as possible & hopefully nothing too much less than 6/4 SP.

We'll play safe & go 3% stake to start & the first selection will be..

3.40 Newb

Astrophysical Jet

Who I thought was being put away for the season but as far as I'm concerned, as long as she stays sound is future GR1 material.

[Godspot]

We'll play safe & go 3% stake to start & the first selection will be..

3.40 Newb

Astrophysical Jet

Who I thought was being put away for the season but as far as I'm concerned, as long as she stays sound is future GR1 material.

Off to a flyer - Wins 3/1f

so we got 1090 next stake 33

Bit gutting though as I could have put up Temple Meads as well but thought I had over-rated somewhat after he flopped (& he wouldn't have been the first!!) at York last time.

Nout of that calibre today to be sure.

[Godspot]

H'mm, Home Advantage 6/4 Mon, Cootehill evens & Sugar Beat 3/1 Tues, all obligers for my little time machine since the weekend - it's quite possible we could do better than 50% SR.

I didn't post for various - like Sugar Beat switching back to turf & Cootehill clocking a figure at Ffos Las where the RP haven't got to grips with yet & I had nothing to compare with.

& now something I hadn't even considered is occurring - ratings for beaten horses -

7.30 Wolves

Silly Billy

Got a 77 from me behind Sugar Beat last time and here he is on 65 - 1st & 3rd won since so it looks feasible.

4.10 Font

Makena

A prolific scorer & lived right up to & surpassed the rating I gave her on her UK debut at Southwell (another place the RP haven't figured out yet). I don't think she's finished yet & maybe we should follow till beaten, no doubt be today

[Godspot]

We'll have the 24pts remainder of our profit on

4.55 Mar Rasen

Classic Fly

[Godspot]

Back to a grand then

Back to 30 Win & we got 3 today

1.55 I Love Me
2.25 State Opera
3.40 Taqleed

All NewmR

[Godspot]

Assuming we got £910 -

we'll have a £5 EW to round off the numbers.

3.45 Ffos Las

Gilwen Glory

[Godspot]

Assuming we got £910 -

we'll have a £5 EW to round off the numbers.

3.45 Ffos Las

Gilwen Glory

That'll do nicely, tavm - Wins @ 16/1

We'll call it back to a grand then for a fresh start......

[bryn]

Nice shot GS. Well done

[Godspot]

Nice shot GS. Well done

Cheers Bryn

Let the competition commence:

2.50 Ling AW Bawaardi - £15 EW

I originally fancied Kiss A Prince but I is a greedy so & so

[Godspot]

4.35 Wolves

Miss Polly Plum - £15 EW

[Godspot]

I've heard of 'plum last' but 34l's behind the 11th in a 12-runner race is taking the michael!

I do hope that wasn't her true running ?

£940

[Godspot]

3.30 Ascot

Piraya £20 Win

Tatenen £10 EW

[Godspot]

I knew i shouldn't have split that stake

Fortunately I got 33/s last night but at SP 22/1 winner will do for a return of £285 -

£1185 & I did say somewhere, EW is for losers! I'll have to stop playing safe, it's costing me money

[Godspot]

2.15 Leopardstown

Puddencullinan - £7.50 ew - just gone 25/s with 365 but is 33/s BlueSq & others..

I'm toying with the idea of reintroducing that 'tri a forecast thingy-ma-jig' on my top three rated, ideally in smaller fields but today would be Deal Done & Erritt Lake but haven't got time to do the maths.

[Godspot]

Down to £1170 -

3.20 Kempton AW Flat

It's Dubai Dolly - £15 EW

[Godspot]

Down to £1140

2.55 Gowran Park

Hume River £15 ew

[Godspot]

Down to 1110 -

Fairy 3.50

Rickardstown (10 win -

[Godspot]

Down to 1100 -

5.15 Kempton AW

Illuminative 15 EW ( I gone bog 33/s)

[Godspot]

Down to 1070 but Don't Panic

Why A Primer?

I been reading this little book – Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer – I bought it because it is supposed to be a guide to generating your own speed figures but in my humble opinion his methods (bar the projected rating chapter) are a bit primitive and I found the chapter on Money Management more relevant to my needs at present…

So, a few months later when I decide I need to explain how things aren’t going quite to plan & how & why I called this thread, ‘A Primer’

As the results come in - just after I hand this months Joint Effort to Iron Chris by not properly understanding the pointing method –

Jan 31st
2.05 W-AW - AM’S (0-55) 5 Q’S QM 46 – FOR A £170 FC!! RATING ODDS
Lethal 53 20/1 1st
Strategic Mover 51
Metropolitan Chief 50 2nd
Kheley 49
Lily Wood 48

So again, my top three rated have generated a winning forecast – yesterday it was in the Joint Effort race, again and to try & make amends have had a little wager on today’s:

Ayr 4.00 Jan 31st (tho I think I missed race of the day, a lot more runners here & easy in hindsight?)

Whaston
Teenage Idol 1st 7/1
Rafta

Jan 30th 2011
HERE: 3.05 H (0-88) 5 Q’S QM 97 – FOR A £138 FC! RATING ODDS
Form And Beauty 103 2nd
Lukie Victor 101
Galantos 94 - 1st

Last night I went off in search of the quote about this thread from Beyer – strangely enough I have two editions of a similar book and yesterday picked up the ‘other’ (later edition I think?) one and started reading about his enthusiasm for exotic bets like forecasts & exactas etc, I couldn’t help but think to myself that this isn’t what I was looking for but look at the blasted results!

So, back to the original for a moment, Andrew Beyer’s Picking Winners – A Horseplayer’s Guide, Page 177:

[ The professional approach of playing very few races rarely works in actual practice for anyone who lacks the self-control of a Hindu holy man but the concept is undeniably sound. Any horseplayer who hopes to win consistently must do it on the few races that he can decipher clearly and bet with confidence.

After my $700 fiasco at Laurel, I was convinced for the last time that I needed some system of betting that would force me to take maximum advantages of the races that I knew offered good opportunities. At the same time I needed a method that would permit me to be a human being who likes action, who likes to take stabs on 50/1 shots and shoot for a fortune in exacta races. I finally developed a realistic set of guidelines that simultaneously disciplines me and allows me the latitude for some self-indulgence.

I divide all possible wagers into two categories: Prime Bets & Action Bets.

The Prime Bets are the crème de la crème. They are horses who meet all my handicapping requirements, who I realistically think have a better than 50% of winning and who are going to post at odds of 6/4 or greater.

A handicapper equipped with good figures and good judgement should be able to hit at least 50% of his most solid selections. If he wins with ½ the 6/4 shots, he will make a profit of 25% on his investments – not a bad return?

Any nonprime bet is an Action Bet. It may be a 50/1 shot – it maybe an exacta in which I hook up three or four horses – it may be a solid horse who narrowly misses qualifying as a prime.

The starting point in my betting system is to set a fixed amount for Prime Bets. This amount should equal somewhere between 5 and 10% of a horseplayer’s total betting capital (think we’re using between 3 & 5 but less of me for a mo). If he has $3000 for gambling he might make $150 Prime Bets (like we have a 1000 & are 3% at 30). This amount should be high enough to make losing hurt just a little and restrain a horseplayer from making a Prime Bet unless he is very confident. It should be high enough so that returns on a 6/4 winner can be considered a good days pay.

Having set the amount of the Prime Bet, I permit myself to lose no more than two-thirds of this sum on all my Action Bets during the course of a day and I may bet no more than one-third of a Prime on any race.

If a horseplayer making $150 Prime Bets goes to the track on a day when he can find no outstanding wagers, he may bet no more than $50 on any race an lose no more than $100 during the course of the day. If he does make a Prime Bet he still may lose $100 in Action Bets in addition to his £150.

I think these guidelines are sane and realistic.

The Prime Bets ensure that a horseplayer will be putting his big money where it belongs. The Action Bets give him an outlet for his gambling instincts and give him the chance to make a substantial profit even if he happens to be wrong on the one race where he has a strong conviction.]

Some nifty guidelines that we’re going to work around and try and adhere to henceforth…

So, this thread is for my Prime Bets only – and marginally explains why I’m quite happy let the Tri-A-Forecast Thingy thread simmer down to 500 as that then will represent a 1/3rd of my playing total & can be used for my Action Bets. Hurrah! A plan…

First Prime Bet to follow shortly….

[Godspot]

Down to 1070 -

3.30 South AW

Mr Emirati - 30 Win

[Godspot]

Most disappointing that one - down to 1040

I would have gone ew on this but now only 7 runners so we'll have 20 Win

2.00 Plumpton - Argentia

[Godspot]

down to 1020 - think the ground was too heavy for that last one but

2.10 Kelso

Melange 10 ew - most infuriating horse, was well backed last time - drifting this?

[Godspot]

down to 1000 -

2.30 Carlisle

Senor Alco 30 win

[Godspot]

Oh, well that's handy - down to 970, we'll continue with 30 as the unit stake - these will be my >4lbClr Top Rated Flat selections, while I have no thread for them, here will do for now & only one today anyway:

4/2/2011 Donc 4.15 Nabah

[Godspot]

4/3/2011 Curr 2.25 Glor Na Mara

[Godspot]

4/3/2011 Curr 2.25 Glor Na Mara

Now I've messed up here...

Down to 910

But perhaps I wouldn't have bothered with that if I had noticed that the ground had changed to heavy overnight & morning but the worst thing, I had another qualifier to go on here which I didn't post, I was waiting to see how the above & St Nicholas Abbey got on but anyway, the other one, Torphichen, he didn't just win, he clocked the best time on the card & considering there were three pattern races - I think we'll be seeing him here sometime again but that's untidied my spreadsheet -

Going to have to tread more careful with the flat - mind you, I got something brewing & we should be OK in due course.

[Godspot]

6.40 Winds Promenada 30 W

[Godspot]

Down to 880 - we'll go 30 on each

Eps 2.10 Highland Knight

Muss 4.25 Lexington Bay
Muss 5.00 Beneath
Muss 5.35 Pantella

[Godspot]

Down to 880 - we'll go 30 on each

Eps 2.10 Highland Knight

Muss 4.25 Lexington Bay
Muss 5.00 Beneath
Muss 5.35 Pantella

Oh well, I thought one of them would win & one of them surely did @ 13/2 so we're back up to -

985

[Godspot]

Just the one so far today & we'll go EW as decent price:

1.40 Epsom - Gottany O's 15 EW