WORDS OF WISDOM
‘Watch horses, and follow the ones that really catch your eye; you can often do well by spotting a few improving three-year-olds and sticking with those. Always remember; you don’t have to bet – so if you don’t have a sound reason for betting, leave that race alone.’ –John Francome
‘Avoid stables that are out of form and follow stables in form.’ – Brough Scott
‘If the perfect betting system existed, bookmakers wouldn’t.’ –Graham Sharpe
‘Don’t back any horse who is going to fall.’The Racing Post’s David Ashforth, who added, ‘Only take a board price if it going to be longer than the starting price. More seriously, look out for special offers guaranteeing the better of the two.’
‘If you fancy a 33/1 shot as much as a 5/1 shot then have twice as much on the 33/1 shot.’ It works for champion tipster Henry Rix.
‘A consistent strategy of betting on horses starting at shorter odds will yield a better return than betting at longer odds,’ declared boffin gambling expert and author Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, who backed up the claim with stats in his 2002 book Betting To Win.
‘I believe that punters who impose restrictions on themselves – never betting odds-on, for example – act against their own interest. The only limitation should be never bet beyond capacity to pay.’ – Peter O’Sullevan, 2004
‘Follow a winning two-year-old until it gets beaten, and then back the one that beat it.’ – veteran jockey turned author Jack Leach
‘Keep backing Ruby Walsh in staying chases and you will be quids in.’ – Tom Segal, February 2008
‘Will it act on the ground?’ Probably the most innovative betting man of the twentieth century, Timeform founder Phil Bull’s defines the most important factor a punter should take into account.
‘It is obvious that for the most part the top courses, which feature competitive racing between horses of the highest class, have the worst record for favourites. You should, therefore, make it a rule not to bet [on favourites] at Ascot, Doncaster, Hamilton, Newbury, Newmarket, Salisbury, Sandown, Warwick and York.’ – ‘Statistician’ in 1992’s Betting Systems That Work
‘There can be no greater joy for a bookmaker than to see the word “favourite” on a betting slip, as such indiscriminate favourite-backing will always lose in the long run.’ –Craig Thake, Racing Post, 1992
‘There is no point in striking a bet if it is not going to make any difference to your life.’ Mark Coton’s number 96 in his 1994 One Hundred Hints for Better Betting.
‘I have achieved consistent profits from betting… I back horses with good recent form, preferably winning form, who are running against limited opposition within their class, when at their peak, progressing or very likely to progress or improve.’ Simple, isn’t it? Well, it was in 1988 for pro punter Clive Holt.
‘I do not back odds-on favourites. You can buy money at the bank – you don’t have to buy it at Ladbrokes.’ – then Irish Premier Albert Reynolds, Sporting Life, 10 January 1994
‘Only your experienced turfite comprehends the enormity of the idiocy of backing horses by systems.’ArthurBinstead’s 1903 observation in his book Pitcher In Paradise.
‘There is no such thing as A value bet, there is only MY value bet and YOUR value bet, because the recognition of value is a matter of personal opinion.’ – pro gambler Alan Potts, 1995
‘Systems? Bookmakers love them.’ –jockey-turned-author Jack Leach
‘A foolproof system is the stuff of dreams and dodgy small ads.’ – respected observer of the betting scene, journalist Greg Woods of the Independent (Getting the systematic message yet?)
‘The only way to beat the bookies, as every punter knows, is over the soft part of the skull with a crowbar.’ A slightly drastic system suggested by maverick writer/punter Matthew Norman.
‘If I were a serious punter I would go racing wearing a Walkman, pick out and back the horses I fancied, and in no circumstances whatsoever talk to a trainer.’ And former permanently red-shirted trainer Jack Berry should know...
‘Contrary to what people might think, backing big odds-on shots is not a mug’s game. It’s just that many mugs seem to do it.’ – Paul Kealy, 2005
‘Ignore my tips.’ – Racing Post star writer Jon Lees
‘I would never advise a stay at home backer to trouble about races at Yarmouth, Folkestone, Lewes, Pontefract and Worcester. These are the meetings which, as far as my experience shows, do not provide results favourable to anybody but those on the spot.’ ‘Lewes’ is the give- away – this advice from respected racing writer NR Pegg, alias Gimcrack of the Daily Sketch, was proffered in 1933, when there were evidently some odd things going on at these tracks. What a relief no such situation occurs anywhere these days!
‘Those boring old sods that tell you to be selective, nick half a point here or there and keep a record of every bet are missing the point. Do we really care if we get 11/4 or 3/1 about a 5/2 shot? The answer, unless you’re JP McManus and betting in hundreds of thousands, is no. Do we care if we get 20/1 about a horse that has a 20/1 chance of winning? Of course we do and that is basically all that value betting is.’ – former ‘Pricewise’ tipster Tom Segal, 2002
‘The pocket calculator possesses a vast potential for finding winners that few have dreamt of or appreciated.’ And if you want to check out writer John White’s assertion you’ll need to find yourself a copy of his 2001 book Racing Systems with the Pocket Calculator.
‘Alan King regularly runs more than one in the same race and the lesser-fancied runner should never be discounted.’ – Racing & Football Outlook, 8–14 January 2008
‘I have two rules in betting, although my bank manager wishes it were more. First, never bet odds on, and secondly – and this should be branded on every racegoer’s forehead – always check the Tote.’ – Alastair Down, 1998
‘Be wary of a long-distance ante-post punt on a horse whose chances might be diminished by extremes of going; you cannot tell far in advance that he’ll have conditions in his favour on the day.’ – John McCririck
‘I don’t just back any favourite. I watch it run a few times and then back it until it loses.’ The system which worked for punter Roger Darlington, who became famous for carrying huge stakes to the track in plastic bags – as when he put £30,000 at 2/7 on Chester House at Chester in May 1999; it won, making him £8,571.42 richer. Disgraceful, ridiculous system – didn’t he understand what plastic bags are doing to the environment?
‘The parade ring can be a great source of winners, particularly in two-year-old races, and you should always try to go and look at them. I have known a few good judges who made more money out of betting on what they had seen in the parade ring than any amount of “information” could have brought.’ – John Sexton, former president of the Horserace Writers & Photographers Association.
‘I’ve won on front-runners, but they need to be guaranteed stayers, and generally I’d prefer to be on a horse that likes to come from off the pace.’ Jockey Richard Hills discusses turf racing at Nad Al Sheba in January 2008, adding, ‘A low draw is a big help on the turf, especially over a mile and a half.
‘Early speed is essential at Nad Al Sheba, where it pays to be wary about form on all-weather surfaces elsewhere.’ – David Lawrence of the Racing Post, 15 January 2008
‘If you randomly backed females rather than males, you would lose an extra £11.10 per every £100 you bet.’ David Renham of the Racing & Football Outlook in January 2008, revealing the message from his survey of all mixed-sex races since 2000 – the news was even worse in all-weather races where backing fillies randomly would cost you an extra £19.10 more per £100 than colts.
‘Be wary of front runners over one mile two furlongs and beyond.’ All-weather guru Richard Young remarks on Lingfield in January 2008, adding, ‘Watch out for the likely front runners over five furlongs. Given the nature of the track it isn’t a surprise that front runners do better over that trip than any other at Lingfield.
‘Listening to owners’ tips…’ Finance director of Goffs Bloodstock Sales reveals his ‘worst habit’ to the Irish Field in January 2008.
‘A bet of £5 or £10 is quite respectable in most circles and, although there are some very heavy gamblers at racecourses, they are a small minority and there is no need to imitate them.’ Social anthropologist Kate Fox’s 2002 warning that we shouldn’t feel obliged to match stakes with others
‘Never be afraid to win too much,’ says bookmaker Victor Chandler, adding, ‘If I have a simple rule, it is not to back short-priced horses.
‘During 1938–39 bookmakers stopped accepting bets on a system that was based on a wins-to-runs record as people were winning too much money.’ Alan Wilcock must have your attention by now; read on… ‘The system was based on consistency and class. Bets were limited to horses who had won a third of their starts and finished placed in at least half of the races they did not win.’ Wilcock insists, ‘This is a system that has stood the test of time and will continue to perform.’ – Racing Ahead, March 2008
‘Don’t be tempted into doubling or trebling short-priced horses on a daily basis unless you want to ingratiate yourself with the betting shop manager.’ A pointer from racing analyst Prince Rajsinh Rajpipla in 2002, who added, ‘Backing anything on a regular basis under 2/1 is an expensive luxury.’
‘You must always take note of horses that appear to be enjoying the experience of going to post.’ Advice from racecourse bookie Barry Dennis, who also believes that punters ‘should always visit the parade ring and become adept at noticing fit horses’.
‘Look for horses that won at Newbury, Cheltenham and Sandown last time as the form tends to work out well.’ Racing Ahead Weekend advice for jump racing at Kempton (23 February 2008)
‘Form from Ayr holds up well.’ Suggestion for finding winners over the sticks at Newcastle (Racing Ahead Weekend, 23 February 2008).
‘Ignore tips. The nearer to the horse’s mouth, the worse they are.’ – Jeffrey Bernard, 1991
‘Get to know the professional gamblers that always loiter near the rails bookmakers. Then, when these guys make a move, the punters must try to be one step ahead of them, or at least right next to them, backing the horses they’re trying to back.’ Barry Dennis, 2002; the media friendly layer.
‘Never lay an Alan King horse in-running.’ – Mel Collier, Racing Post, 27 February 2008
‘Be wary of apparently top class horses running in claimers – they probably have a problem, or else why are the connections willing to let them go cheaply?’ –rhetorical question from pro punter Alan Potts
‘One in six races in National Hunt racing is won by a horse with odds of over 10/1’ – useful encouragement to back longer odds runners from punting author Ross Newton
‘I dislike horses who carry their heads too high, even at the walk. In my view, it’s usually a sign of poor temperament and an undesirable racing attitude.’ – Channel 4 commentator Simon Holt
‘Most tips are trash and racecourse rumours are usually rubbish. Have faith in your own instincts and your own observations and you will back more winners, and enjoy them more.’ – Simon Holt
‘The biggest bugbear is conditions race form in handicaps. Time and time again horses which put up an apparently much-improved effort in a conditions race appear to be “thrown in” when dropped to a handicap next time. The racing media invariably latches on to these horses, despite the fact that experience should have told them they nearly always get beaten, usually at a shocking price.’ –punter guru Mark Coton, 1990
‘Punters should try to keep their turnover high and bet as often as possible. It keeps you in the game and takes the pressure off. If you only bet rarely, but have a big bet when you do, you really have to get it right. For me, it makes more sense to divide that one stake up and have 50 bets in the same time, at a fiftieth of the stake. You’ll get more winners, the losers will matter less and your confidence will go up.’ – noted judge, punter and journalist Eddie ‘The Shoe’ Fremantle, Counter Attack, 2002
‘Trainer form is that most elusive of elements, like a bar of soap in the bath. As soon as you identify it, the confounded thing slips out of your grasp.’James Willoughby of the Racing Post reminds us in January 2008 that stable form is not a constant and that you must weigh up the chances that you are jumping on a bandwagon which is just about to leave town, before lumping on a yard which has been flying.
‘It has often been a good strategy to get a penalised last- time-out winner back out as quickly as possible on the all-weather.’ – James Pyman, Racing Post, 21 January 2008
‘Races often go to the horse with more natural speed who has the ability to quicken away from rivals off a slow pace, rather than those with a breeding that makes them well suited to the race distance but who need a strong pace to achieve full potential.’ More James Pyman all-weather advice – particularly for the Polytrack courses.
‘If I think they’ll run well, I won’t talk to you beforehand.’ Trainer Henrietta Knight explains to Robert Cooper of At The Races why she didn’t want to say anything pre-race before her 13/2 winner, Mous of Men at Doncaster on 27 January 2008. So if you do hear her chatting to the media before a race, she obviously won’t fancy her runner, whereas her absence from the airwaves would seem to be a tip in itself.
‘The saying goes “there are only three things that matter in trying to find a winner in horse racing: the going, the going and the going.”’ – Nick Wrathall, BettingBanter.com
‘A recent survey suggested that over 60 per cent of punters were not worried about actually winning money, being more interested in the thrill of the chase.’ Racing expert Malcolm Boyle in 2006, showing that there are plenty out there happy for you to steam in for some of the profi t they spurn.
‘There is a huge betting edge awaiting anyone who takes the trouble to understand international racing form.’This tip is from Nick Mordin who, in January 2008, pointed out opportunities of exploiting ‘a huge distortion in betting odds whenever well-regarded runners from Britain or Ireland face high-class opponents who have only ever raced abroad’.
‘Back the remaining runners at the meeting of a trainer who has already had a winner there that afternoon.’ – ‘Fenman’, Racing Ahead, February 2008
‘Before a race I am keen on what I back to be nicely relaxed, not spend what is the equine equivalent of a couple of hours of primping in a health resort or beauty parlour. I have done no serious research, but am convinced that the express route to the poorhouse is to back best turned out horses to win races.’ – Sir Clement Freud, 16 February 2008
to be continued
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Originally Posted by Win2Win
